Authors Meet Critics

Native Lands: Culture and Gender in Indigenous Territorial Claims

Recorded on April 4, 2025, this video features an Authors Meet Critics panel on the book Native Lands: Culture and Gender in Indigenous Territorial Claims by Shari Huhndorf, Professor of Ethnic Studies at UC Berkeley. Professor Shari Huhndorf was joined in conversation with Lauren Kroiz, Associate Professor of History of Art at UC Berkeley, and Luanne Redeye, Assistant Professor of Art Practice at UC Berkeley. Bernadette Pérez, Assistant Professor of History at UC Berkeley, moderated.

The Social Science Matrix Authors Meet Critics book series features lively discussions about recently published books authored by social scientists at UC Berkeley. For each event, the author discusses the key arguments of their book with fellow scholars. These events are free and open to the public.

This panel was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Center for Race and Gender (CRG) and the Department of Ethnic Studies, the History of Art Department, and the Joseph A. Myers Center for Research on Native American Issues.

About the Book

Shari HuhndorfNative Lands analyzes the role of visual and literary culture in contemporary Indigenous campaigns for territorial rights. In the post-1960s era, Indigenous artists and writers have created works that align with the goals and strategies of new Native land-based movements. These works represent Native histories and epistemologies in ways that complement activist endeavors, while also probing the limits of these political projects, especially with regard to gender. The social marginalization of Native women was integral to dispossession. And yet its enduring consequences have remained largely neglected, even in Native organizing, as a pressing concern associated with the status of Indigenous people in settler nation-states. The cultural works discussed in this book provide an urgent Indigenous feminist rethinking of Native politics that exposes the innate gendered dimensions of ongoing settler colonialism. They insist that Indigenous campaigns for territorial rights must entail gender justice for Native women.

Podcast and Transcript

 Listen to this panel as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

CORI HAYDEN: Hi, everyone. Welcome so glad to have you here. My name is Cori Hayden. I’m in the Department of Anthropology. I’m the Interim Faculty Director of Social Science Matrix. And I am thrilled to welcome you to this fantastic panel, one of our Author Meets Critics series today to celebrate and discuss Shari Huhndorf’s book, Native Lands: Culture and Gender and Indigenous Territorial Claims.

We have with us, as you can see, Lauren Kroiz, Luanne Redeye, and Bernadette Pérez as our moderator. And thank you all for being here. And thank you, Shari, for the gift of this book. Very excited to discuss.

So this book was published just last year, 2024, by UC Press. And it’s a really wonderful analysis of the role of visual and literary culture in Indigenous movements for territorial rights, and offers a really nice and powerful Indigenous feminist perspective, really thinking through the intersection of gender justice and land-based activism.

Today’s event is co-sponsored by UC Berkeley’s Ethnic Studies Department, the History of Art Department, or yes, Center for Race and Gender, and the Center for Research on Native American Issues. And I do want to give a special thanks to the preceding and returning faculty director, Marianne Fourcade, and to Ambrosia Shapiro, who both really put this event together last year.

I am the lucky free rider. I get to come to these amazing events. And I also want to thank the Matrix staff who are making everything run so smoothly here. Now our program manager Sara Harrington, Chuck [INAUDIBLE] back there, and [INAUDIBLE] in the front office. So thanks to all of you.

Before we get started, I am duty bound to advertise some of our upcoming events. April 7, a Matrix on point event on the new gender gap– thinking about gender and labor and wealth inequality globally.

April 9 at 12 o’clock, global perspectives on anti-blackness and gender violence with one of our Matrix faculty Fellows. Panels on technology in China, border control, the law and politics of antitrust. As you can tell, a range of things hitting all dimensions of social science research on this campus and the world. So please keep an eye on that on our website if any of these are of interest to you.

But back to the event of the day and the reason that we are here. Let me introduce our moderator, Bernadette Pérez, and then she will take over from there. Bernadette is Assistant Professor of History here at Berkeley. She focuses particularly on the histories of Latinx and Indigenous peoples in the West.

Her work hits multiple subfields of history– from race and environment to labor migration colonialism. In its broadest and most finest point, she studies empire and capitalism in action. Welcome, Bernadette. I will turn it over to you. Thanks so much for being here. And Thank you to you all.

BERNADETTE PÉREZ: All right. Thank you so much, Cori.

[APPLAUSE] All

Right. Can you hear me? It’s good? OK, wonderful. OK, so welcome to the Matrix. We are on the unceded territory of the Muwekma Ohlone. And it’s my honor to introduce our panel today, celebrating Professor Shari Huhndorf’s new book, Native Lands– Culture and Gender Indigenous Territorial Claims.

Thank you to Cori for introducing me and to Sarah and everybody here at the Matrix for bringing us together. My role is to just introduce the panel. I’m going to give a sense of the structure of our conversation today, and then I will turn it over to our three panelists.

OK, so Shari Huhndorf is class of 1938 Professor of Native American Studies in the Department of Ethnic Studies here at UC Berkeley. She’s the author of three books– Native Lands, which we’ll be talking about today, Going Native– Indians in the American Cultural Imagination, and Mapping the Americas– The Transnational Politics of Contemporary Native Culture.

As well as being co-editor of three different volumes, including Indigenous Women and Feminism– Politics, Activism, and Culture, which won the Canadian Women’s Studies Association prize for outstanding scholarship. She also serves beyond our institution in a variety of capacities and has won many awards and fellowships, including a Guggenheim.

And has served on the Board of Trustees at the Smithsonian’s museum of the American Indian, where she also chairs the repatriations committee. She is currently completing a community history of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971– the largest Indigenous land claim settlement in US history.

So she will begin today speaking for about 20 minutes, and then she’ll be followed by our two other panelists who will each speak for about 10 to 15 minutes before we will open the floor to Professor Huhndorf to respond, as well as for audience Q&A.

Next to Professor Huhndorf, we have Lauren Kroiz who is an Assistant Professor of History, of Art here on campus. Her research and teaching focuses on art and modernism in the United States during the 20th century.

And she has taught a range of topics in the history of American art, photography, material culture, and modernism, including courses on avant gardism, race and representation, thing theory, technologies of imaging, meanings of medium, and globalization.

Kroiz is the author of Cultivating Citizens– The Work of Art in the New Deal Era, as well as Creative Composites– Modernism, Race, and the Stieglitz Circle. And then our final panelist today is Luanne Redeye who is a portrait and figurative artist who questions modes of representation through visual storytelling and personal archive.

Her artwork draws connections to the land and kinship of her home community, holding memories, stories, and imprints of her familial relationships. She is a citizen of the Seneca Nation and Hawk clan, and grew up on the Allegany Indian Reservation in Western New York. She received her MFA in painting and drawing at the University of New Mexico, and has been supported through many residencies as put on a number of exhibitions.

And has received multiple grants from various institutions, including Kent State University, the Museum of Contemporary Native Arts, the Santa Fe Art Institute, New American Paintings, and the New York State Council on the Arts, among others. So I want to welcome our three panelists today, and I will cede the floor to Professor Huhndorf.

[APPLAUSE]

SHARI HUHNDORF: Is the microphone working? Yes, is the microphone working? No, it is. OK, I’ll try to speak louder. Thank you, Bernadette, for that very kind introduction and for agreeing to be here to moderate. Your own work is so exciting and inspirational. I’m really happy to be in conversation with you.

And just a couple more words of thanks before we get started. So thanks to Cori and to Marianne and to Ambrosia for the invitation. To Sarah and the Matrix staff for pulling together the event, which is so labor-intensive. Thank you for doing that. Really excited to be in conversation with Lauren and Luanne.

And I was just saying to Lauren before we got started that I’m a little daunted to be in conversation with other art historians and artists because I myself have no training in art history, nor am I an artist. And it was kind of a risk to talk about art. So they’re going to tell me all the things I missed. Really glad about that. I might need to rewrite the book.

And also thanks to you for being here. It is a lovely day outside. It’s Friday afternoon. It’s lunchtime. So thank you for taking the time to be here as part of this conversation. OK, so I think I have about 20 minutes and I’m going to spend that time laying out the major argumentative threads of the book.

So the story of the book begins in the late 1960s, which, of course, was a watershed era in native North America for multiple reasons. And one is the political movements that emerged during this era have been absolutely transformative in the native world.

So when we teach Native history, we usually talk about this era as marking the emergence of Red Power. And the Red Power Movement took as one of its strategies a series of occupations of places across the country as a means to draw attention to Native claims to the land, both in the past and the present.

And, of course, the first sort of major occupation of that era took place in our own neighborhood here in Alcatraz Island. So what happened as part of the occupation of Alcatraz– this was a group of mostly young Native people who called themselves Indians of all tribes who occupied Alcatraz beginning in 1969 for about 19 months.

And think about that– that is like a huge feat to occupy that land for a 19-month period. So they occupied that land for 19 months. And we usually think of that as the major event that catalyzes the Red Power Movement more broadly.

So the occupation ends in 1971. And Red Power takes off, but usually it kind of wanes, like the groups that were important to red power are still around. But that period wanes in the late 1970s. But one of the things that is really important about that era is that despite the waning of these particular events and groups is that the late 1960s marks the era of emergence of a new era of land claims that we are still in today.

So if we think about some of the contemporary events that are important in this sort of ongoing activism around Native land claims, we might think about what happened in 2016 on the Standing Rock Reservation, the protests around the Dakota Access Pipeline that drew representatives from more than 300 native tribes, mostly from North America, but also from across the Americas.

And thousands of other supporters who came and went during these weeks of occupation and really drew global attention to campaigns for Native rights. We also might think about the more decentralized Land Back movement which is ongoing, which is a series of Native endeavors to reclaim traditional territories, not necessarily always as like to get that land back to own that land, but that’s part of that broader project.

But also includes things like efforts to assert traditional stewardship over traditional lands to regain hunting, fishing, and gathering rights on traditional territories. And that’s really an ongoing, again, decentralized and widespread movement at the moment. And we might also think about the recent practice of land acknowledgments as being part of one of the outcomes of this sort of ongoing era, this press for Native territorial claims.

So what’s new about that? So we might say that Native politics have always and forever centered around getting land back in the, at least since Europeans came to this land and dispossessed Native people.

But this era is different for some reasons. And one of those reasons is that the activists during this era have employed a new set of strategies to assert their claims to territories. So some of those strategies are legal strategies.

And one thing that’s remarkable about this era is the assertion of the common law doctrine of Aboriginal title to assert the native legal claims to land. And, of course, what Aboriginal title is, is a common law doctrine that says that long histories of use and occupancy, Native use and occupancy of land underlie legal claims in the present.

So that’s been a really common argument used to assert native land claims in the present. The other thing is the increasing reliance on treaty rights to assert legal claims. So those of you who know something about Native history know that the United States signed 371 treaties with Native nations, unilaterally broke all of them, every single one. That happened in different ways.

But nevertheless, if you read the US Constitution, you know that treaties remain the law of the land. And Native communities have used that status of treaties as the law of the land to assert their claims with actually a great deal of success.

Another important strategy of this era is to bring to light the brutal violence of dispossession. So the histories going back hundreds of years of the ways that Native communities have been dispossessed and the horrible violence of that process, and the fact that narrating those claims gives native communities a moral and ethical claim to territories. And that, too, has been an effective strategy.

And then finally, one thing that’s important about this era of land claims and the kind of strategies that activists use, is that these activist movements are tied to a sort of broader process of Native cultural revitalization that I was going to say commenced, I’m going to say recommenced in the late 1960s.

And activists have made this sort of strong argument that various land-based practices are really integral to Native identities. And that, too, has been a critical part of the arguments to reclaim lands in this era.

So this era starts in the late 1960s, and activists have used these strategies, and they’ve achieved some remarkable and unprecedented victories with regard to land claims during this period. So thinking back to that period, late 1960s, early 1970s.

In 1970s– sorry, 1970, the Nixon administration, which many people are surprised to learn, was like the friendliest presidential– Native people here are nodding. Nixon was the best president for Native people. And we can talk about that in the Q&A if you want to. Yeah, wow, kind of shocking. But he really was for so many reasons.

And I’m just going to name one of those reasons and there are others. There’s a whole set of policies that have really transformed the politics of Native communities in the United States. But one of those events was that in 1970, the Nixon administration facilitated the return of Blue Lake to Taos Pueblo.

And that was an important event because it marked the first return on the part of the federal government of Native lands to Native communities. So really a landmark event. So that’s 1970. The following year is the passage of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act.

And that is actually– Bernadette said this is a book I’m finishing right now. That is my home community. That land claim settlement took place in my home community. My family was really involved in lobbying for it.

That’s an important story to me, but it’s also an important story nationally in a way that’s not always recognized in the Native world. Like Native Alaskan, Native California, actually, not always thought of as being central in native politics.

So as part of that settlement, 44 million acres of land in Alaska were acknowledged to be Native land returned to Native communities, also $1 billion returned as part of that settlement. And just to give you a sense of scale.

So if we’re to think about all the reservation land in the United States combined, that’s about 56 million acres. So in Alaska, one land claim settlement was 44 million acres. So that’s big. Not returned as reservation land. And that’s a complexity, but not a conversation for now.

So thinking about events that were important in this period north of the border, in 1973, in Canada, the Calder Supreme Court decision recognized for the first time the notion of Aboriginal title, which I just mentioned, those sort of histories of use and occupancy as giving rise to Native legal claims.

That this Supreme Court decision, for the first time, recognizes Aboriginal title as a foundation for Native land rights in Canada. And subsequent to that decision, there have been 25 new treaties in Canada with Native nations. And one of those agreements in the 1990s established the Inuit controlled territory of Nunavut.

And then finally, we might think about more contemporary events in addition to the ones I just mentioned– Standing Rock and others we might think about, the numerous public and private returns of land to Native communities, like sometimes churches, sometimes individuals, sometimes townships, including in California, returning land to Native communities as a result of this activism that was catalyzed in the 1960s and continues to this day.

So, not incidentally, this period that starts about 50 years ago was also a period of the outpouring of creative expression in the Native world. So thinking again about those early years, this is the year– these are the years of the emergence of what became known as the Native American Renaissance.

So all of this native literature, art, poetry, also filmmaking, filmmaking and technology becomes accessible during this time. And we see this huge outpouring of creative expression that gains national and international recognition.

So one key event in this history of cultural production is the fact that in 1969, N. Scott Momaday won the Pulitzer Prize for his novel, House Made of Dawn. This body of work, usually we think of Native American Renaissance as starting in the late 1960s, continuing through the ’80s. And we’re still in an era of outpouring of Native cultural expression.

We have an artist here who’s part of that. We usually think of this as the post-Renaissance era. But some of the same concerns and themes cut across these eras. So one of the things that we see in this body of work is a concern with the revival of Native cultural traditions of various kinds, including language.

A lot of use of Indigenous languages, especially in– well, not just especially in literary texts and films. Sometimes film is used as a means of language revitalization. Other sort of belief systems– traditional belief systems and practices, including land-based practices, are really important in this body of work.

And so some of this focus on traditions in this body of cultural expression, has focused on land. And sometimes not only on traditional beliefs about land, but also about the kind of activism that’s taking place around land.

And so just as an example of that, I want to turn to– yeah, here it is, the cover of the book. So I didn’t actually talk about this painting in the book. Sometimes the covers come after. I wish I would have had time to write about it. So I’m just going to say a few words about it now.

So this is a painting– it’s called memory Map by the artist Jaune Quick-to-See Smith. She created this in the year 2000. And she created this whole series of map paintings. And there’s so much to be said about this work, and maybe we could talk about it in some detail in the Q&A, but I just want to read– this is the epigraph to the book, something that she said about her map paintings in an interview. So this is a quote.

We are the original owners of this country. Our land was stolen from us by the Euro-American invaders. My maps are about stolen lands, our very heritage, our cultures, our worldview, our being. Every map is a political map and tells a story that we are alive everywhere across this nation.

So just in that quote, you can see some of the themes that have been important in Native activism. So this notion of the brutality of the history of dispossession, these are stolen lands. This kind of invocation of a Native presence, the assertion of Native claims. We are the original owners of this territory.

The assertion of an ongoing native presence, we are alive everywhere across this nation. And she’s one of these artists and there are many. And I just I talk about many of them in the book who really think of their work as being part of this broader endeavor of reclaiming native territories.

So the center of the book is to think about that connection between cultural production and territorial claims in the post-1960s era and continuing, of course, into the present. And specifically, the book asks how artists and writers have used their work to advance native community efforts to reclaim lands and what possibility culture holds to shift understandings of Native people and lands in ways that advance Indigenous territorial claims.

So, what can culture do that perhaps other forms of expression can’t do? How can culture force us– what can it force us to see? And maybe, how can it force us to see the world differently? And again, how are these representations advancing this sort of broader political project?

So to think about that question about the connection between culture and land claims, you have to think historically about the ways in which culture has been instrumental in the dispossession of Native people.

And I’m not going to say that much about this just for the sake of time, but I’m just going to mention a couple of important histories. There have been scholars. Edward Said is one. There are other scholars in the new American studies who thought about the ways in which literary narratives, in particular, have advanced processes of imperialism and colonialism across the world.

So a really good example of this is the publication of Edward Said’s Cultural Imperialism in– was it 1993? I’m looking to my left. Thank you, Lauren. 1993, where he says– and I’m paraphrasing here, so I’m going to get the quote a little bit wrong.

He’s talking about the use of the novel in European imperialism. And he has a really striking argument about the ways in which questions about who owns the land, who works the land, who occupies the land, who should determine its future. He says those issues were decided in part through narrative.

And this argument was picked up by scholars working on American empire to think about how in the context of not only internal colonialism in the United States, but global imperialism, the way that American literature played a fundamental role in imperial expansion.

There’s also been, outside of literature, this sort of long history of colonial image-making that has also been integral in dispossession. And I’m just going to show a couple of examples of this. So again, we can say so much about this image. But long history of colonial image making that shows native people as unworthy holders of the land. They’re savage, they’re violent.

And those are ideas that find expression not only in visual culture, but also in law, policy, history writing during these eras. Images that show the process of expansion as progress. Everyone knows this painting, right? Everyone’s seen this American Progress. You see, look what’s happening to the native people. Just being kind of they’re there in the darkness, being pushed off the canvas of American life.

This is the notion that we call manifest destiny, which, again, was important not just in artistic culture, not only in visual culture, but became important in law and policy. And also works that just erase Native people altogether. And that problem of erasure has been so critical in the native world.

If native people are deemed to be disappearing, vanishing, those are all terms that were commonly used, not existing, then the land is there for the taking. So in this history of representation, it’s not just images of Native people such as this one in the darkness being pushed off the canvas there, but it’s also representations of land and the nature of land that have been crucial to dispossession.

And just a couple of words on this– an entire libraries of books have been written about these issues, the ways in which, for example, in the early modern era, the emergence of modern cartography. So maps, surveys drawn to scale that reduce land to a grid, to empty space, the way that, that was integral to the transition to land as property, which in turn was foundational to Native dispossession.

In the realm of art, and again, just to gloss an important body of scholarship, the way that landscape painting was integral to dispossession and so much work on that. Some of this came out of geography, and I’m thinking of the work of Dennis Cosgrove who talked about the ways in which the emergence of perspective in painting created this illusion of realism.

And this is a loose paraphrase of a quote, that he says created the sense of mastery over space that was closely bound up to the physical appropriation of land. Other scholars from the realm of literary and visual culture– and I’m thinking here specifically about [INAUDIBLE] Mitchell, has taken that work and talked about the ways that landscape has been integral to global imperialism.

And then in US contexts, others have written about the ways in which landscape was a fundamental force in Westward expansion in the United States. And I’ll just show another image. So this is a painting by Albert Bierstadt who was an artist who was part of the Hudson River School. He created this painting as part of– he accompanied a military expedition West.

So this military expedition is creating surveys of the American West I think right there about that connection between the material dynamics of conquest through the military and like the painter is accompanying the military survey.

So he created this image. This is a composite image of sites in the Sierra Nevadas that he encountered on that military expedition. And there’s a lot to be said about this painting. Again, we could spend the rest of our time together talking about it, but I’ll just say a couple of words about it.

And that is, it was part of a body of work that helped people in the East, visualize land in the West. To visualize it, to think they understand it, to make the land seem empty, to make the land seem desirable for possession.

And there’s some scholarship that indicates that this widespread circulation of paintings like this really had a material role in increasing the number of people going West to settle what was Native land. So these representations of land really crucial to dispossession.

So a central argument of the book is that if culture can advance ideas about Native people and Native lands that facilitate dispossession, so too can it facilitate native efforts to reclaim land. And that is a process that’s traced by the book.

So the book analyzes key works of artists, writers, and filmmakers in the post 1960s era that undertake– that use a number of strategies that include heightening the visibility of Native people.

And that becomes important. If we think about how the erasure of Native people was integral to dispossession, what happens when you make native presence on the land visible, that that’s part of this broader political project.

These works narrate long native histories on the land that are the basis of Aboriginal title. That happens a lot in literature. These works represent the violence of dispossession. So, again, think back to those strategies that I mentioned as being really integral to land activism during this period.

So this work is really narrating those histories that become part of the moral claim to land. And they also use cultural production as a means to revive traditions. Again these themes of traditions, traditional languages, traditional practices really integral to this era.

And in particular, advance traditional understandings of land that challenge the notion of land as property. So works like visual and literary works to think about the sacredness of land, to think about the native meanings of land that really negate that idea of land as empty space, land as property.

So that’s one theme of the book, like to think about the ways that artists and writers use these strategies, sometimes by taking up really specific histories of dispossession and contemporary land conflicts. And some of the works I look at– look at particular policies, look at particular events and build a fictional world around them.

And sometimes these works just take up these issues more generally by revising colonial image-making practices that are associated with dispossession. So I’ll just turn to another word now. But I’m going to lock this in your head– this Bierstadt painting. Wrong direction.

So this is a work by Kent Monkman. Do you see? He’s revising Mount Corcoran. So Kent Monkman is a contemporary artist in Canada– a cree artist, who’s been called the rock star of Indigenous art in Canada.

And he’s most famous for his landscape paintings and what he typically does in his landscape paintings is he takes these canonical works and he revises them. And I’m just going to read a quote about what Monkman says about his work.

Europeans and North America had stolen our land. They created this whole document called art history around their exploits. I felt that borrowing from their landscape paintings would be a way of reclaiming some of the land they had stolen from us.

So you see how directly he’s like aligning his work with various land claims movements. Oh, my gosh, so much to be said about this painting. Maybe we can return to it. What does it mean to assert a Native presence on the land? One of the things that this figure– this is Monkman’s alter ego. He calls her chief. Oh, why am I blanking out? Ego. Thank you. e Egotistical mischief. Egotistical. Thank you.

So he’s like egotistical, egotistical. OK. Thank you for that. She’s looking back at us. What does it mean? So images aren’t so good at conveying histories. This is an image that really tries hard to do that. There’s a lot to be said about this document that’s on the easel. The easel– that’s actually a historical document. We can maybe talk more about it later.

These figures who are lying supine on the ground. There’s also a historical reference there. I’ll just give you a hint. They’re supposed to be Custer’s soldiers. So there’s also a historical narrative that comes to bear on this painting that, again, all of these elements together are part of this project of turning landscape painting against itself to assert Native claims.

OK, I’m a little over time, so I’m going to try to be really quick. The second theme of the book is about– is really the assertion that when we think about this history of Native dispossession and when we think about ongoing native campaigns for territorial rights, we have to think about gender, that gender is really integral to that process.

And to underscore the importance of this point, I’m just going to read a brief quote from the Native Studies scholar Joanne Barker. And here’s what Barker said in a publication that came out just a few years ago.

She said Native Studies scholars– and this is a quote, frequently compartmentalize gender, sexuality, and feminism, bracketing them off from the analysis of more serious political issues such as governance, treaty, and territorial rights.

So one of the tasks of Indigenous feminists in recent years has been to take apart that distinction between the politics of gender and sexuality and more serious issues like political and territorial rights.

And there’s been a lot of work done on this. And I think of this book as contributing to that process, in part by focusing specifically on gender and dispossession and the implications for contemporary Native land politics.

And thinking in particular about the way that the gender dimensions of dispossession become legible in and enacted through, sometimes through culture. So to get to that point, just briefly, there are a couple of histories that we might think about.

We might think about the early centuries of European expansion, where iconographies of the Americas took shape, often as the body of an Indigenous woman, and how that notion of the Americas as a woman really became a rationale for the conquest of land and people.

We might think about how in the era of colonial nation building, that these sort of colonial allegories of settlers who married or had children with Native women became these kind of foundational narratives of nation states. And the most obvious example in our context is Pocahontas– the figure of Pocahontas, who’s really integral to settler American identity.

And we might also think about the kind of material dimensions of this process where women have historically been removed– Native women have been removed from positions of power and from the very beginning when Europeans came in, wouldn’t recognize Native women’s leadership through the late 19th and early 20th century eras of assimilation.

Where fundamental part of the project of settler colonialism was to impose the patriarchal nuclear family as the center of social organization. And to displace kinship networks that often were matriarchal or at least accorded native women positions of power.

So if we’re to think about a task of contemporary Native artists and writers, and returning to the book looking at some of this work, one of the things that Native women artists and writers during this period do is they endeavor to bring to light this gendered– this history of the marginalization of Native women.

And to show how it was really integral to settler colonialism, so that gendered violence, sexual violence becomes part of the broader critique of dispossession that becomes really important in this era. Another crucial task of these artists and writers is to draw out the effects of those histories in the present.

and the way that those histories of marginalizing native women, histories of violence against Native women, really shape the social positions of Native women now. And then thirdly, these artists and writers attempt to conceive of a political project that draws together land claims with gender justice for Native women.

So just to give a brief example of that, that I think about in the book. So the crisis of missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls that most people have probably heard about, this is a major issue in the native world, has been one of those events that has also prompted this kind of outpouring of creative expression. There’s a lot of artist activism around this issue.

And just to take one example of this, and this is my final image, I promise– almost final. This is a work by the Canadian artist Rebecca Belmore. It’s a work that was created in 20– sorry, 2007, called Fringe. And she created this photograph in the aftermath of the Pickton murders in Canada.

So the Pickton murders were the most notorious serial murders in Canadian history. Robert Pickton murdered more women than any other serial murderer ever in Canada. He was arrested in 2002.

And one of the kind of interesting things about the Pickton murder– significant things about the Pickton murders that initially went unremarked was that among the 49 murders to which he confessed, probably half of them were of Native women.

He was in Vancouver, BC, and he found his victims on the street of Vancouver. The Aboriginal population of Vancouver is about 3%. So when you think about half of the victims being Native women, that’s tremendous overrepresentation.

And one of the things that happened in the early media coverage of this event is there was like no recognition of that fact. I mean, Native communities knew it. They knew their women were disappearing. They had lobbied for police investigations for years to no effect.

And then once picked in his court and OK, there’s a serial murder, the press didn’t acknowledge at all the fact that Aboriginal women were overrepresented. So Belmore was one of the artists that really took to draw attention, not only draw visibility, we might say not only to the fact that so many Native women had been among the victims, but also to call attention to why.

And we don’t have time to talk about this image, but we might think about the ways in which the beaded fringe on her back, like a red beaded fringe is a sort of cultural signifier of indigeneity. And how she ties that to the violence on this body.

We also might think about where this was displayed. So the last image was– the photograph was circulated in museums as this lightbox display. But she initially mounted this image in this downtown Montreal as a billboard, so much to be said about that format that we could talk about visibility and about commodification and other things.

But the site was really significant because what she did was she mounted this billboard above this building, which is the Center for the Grand Council of Cree Nation.

And what she’s doing in choosing that location is to draw attention to the ongoing presence of Native people in the city. People tend to think about Native people as existing elsewhere, never here to draw attention to Native people in the city, and also to reclaim urban spaces as Native spaces. She’s defining this as Native space.

So we might think about that, too, as a way of drawing together these concerns about gender and really asserting– bringing to bear this critique of dispossession, to assert Native Claims in the present. OK, I’ve gone over. I’m going to stop there.

BERNADETTE PÉREZ: Thank you so much. That was very helpful.

[APPLAUSE]

LAUREN KROIZ: I’m an art historian, so I can’t talk without slides. Can everybody hear me? I have to crane my neck to look at them. Thank you all so much. And, Shari, thank you for this really important book.

I’m really excited and honored to be in conversation with you all about Native lands. I wrote out my comments so that I could try to stay on track, because there are so many things that we could say and talk about this book.

I have been recommending– I’ve been finding myself recommending it to all my students working on a wide variety of projects. So I could get down a lot of tangents. I’m personally wrapping up a project that’s about women’s suffrage, ideas of artistic materiality, and the unstable divide between object and subjecthood.

So I really know how hard it is to connect artworks and politics in ways that allow for the gap between the two to exist and to really signify. So reading Native Lands, I appreciated the way the book works with art across media, including literature to link, as Shari puts it, Indigenous cultural production and Native land reclamation.

So layering this intersection with complex considerations of land and gender, revealing, for example, ties between histories of colonial dispossession, which we’ve heard about, violence against Native women and contemporary movements for land sovereignty.

So here are two key artworks from the text, or what I take to be two key artworks from the text. Crucially, in native lands, culture has no generically good or stable value. As Shari succinctly puts it, quote, “If culture makes place to enable dispossession, Indigenous art, film, and writing endeavor to remake place to support Indigenous territorial claims.” End quote.

So starting from settler colonial images like the one on the top that help enact Native American erasure and dispossession, the book moves to study more contemporary Native cultural production as self-representation, including as in the image on the bottom, which we’ve heard a little bit about already.

So you see here that range in two images– baptism of Pocahontas from 1840 by the White male painter John Gadsby Chapman, which hangs in the US Capitol on the top, and Anishinaabe artist Rebecca Belmore’s 2007 photograph fringe, which appeared as a billboard. And Shari just described that better than I could.

So here– let me see, images of the artworks in the world since their site is such a crucial part of the book’s argument, I think. So through Shari’s readings, we see how artworks might not be solutions to political or social questions, but how they might allow the construction of what we might call capacious new archives.

Often, archives tied to specific major land claims and legal cases of violence against Indigenous women. And along the way, the book asks if dominant culture forms and genre can even advance Indigenous political claims, which I think is such a crucial and complex question, and one I want to keep us coming back to.

So Chatman’s work, we could say, is in the dominant cultural form of history painting. It’s part of a long lineage of images in which, as Shari points out, the task of representing America falls to the figure of the Indigenous woman.

Conceiving land as property is an invention of capitalism, but the violence of that invention and colonial violence in general is obscured by recasting conquest as sexual consent. And she offers a really productive and brilliant reading of this preparatory drawing by a Dutch artist for the allegory of America, which is from– this drawing is from 1580– around 1587.

And here we see Amerigo Vespucci and an allegorical female figure representing the continent. And they’re in a sort of erotic encounter. The female figure is labeled with America, which is weirdly a feminized version of the navigator’s own name. So we’re sort of doubling twinning there too.

Alongside a reading of the image, Shari gives a quote from a 1504 letter from Vespucci, which describes resistance led by Native American women, where women attack sailors with great sticks. And this kind of conjures a world where to quote the book, quote, “Native American women speak on behalf of their people and lead efforts to repel invaders.” End quote.

And Shari uses this account as a starting point for a new interpretation of this allegorical image, one that sees women’s resistance and violence communicated in the letter that’s kind of lurking in the image, but also contained.

The club we can see is beside her, but it seems abandoned. And the depiction, you can probably see in the back here of cannibalism is pushed to the background, signaling a kind of inherent inferiority rather than any real danger.

And I was struck by the way that Shari suggests this– sorry, this 1504 account might also take the image out of the realm of allegory into a kind of recasting of a historical event, that also shows us the way that patriarchy is neither neutral, natural, or universal.

And I was struck, too, by the comparison of the letter and the preparatory drawing made me wonder about the possibilities of an image in relationship to a text. And I’m super skeptical of this idea of immediacy.

And as an art historian, I probably shouldn’t be fetishizing texts. But I began to wonder if there’s something possible in the letter and maybe this is something we can talk about that has some of that surprising negotiation with difference, and with the limits of empire and patriarchy that aren’t or isn’t viable for an artist working on an image that’s so painstakingly drawn and planned for high level reproduction.

In turning to baptism of Pocahontas, Native Lands unpacks the image, and this is an image that presents itself as removed from issues of land and as more about the redemption of a Native American woman through settler colonialism, particularly through religion.

Shari draws our attention to the seated figure oriented towards the viewer on the right. And she shows how what could be an image of Indigenous resistance becomes framed as a contest between good and evil, seen in religious terms.

We can see here the light that breaks over the way of the flag, the priest, and the Indigenous woman suggests the way that indigeneity might be assimilable to Whiteness, particularly through the domination of Indigenous women.

More than a century old, Shari notes that even in the present, this painting is framed by the architect of the Capitol’s office with a label as depicting an event that simply, quote, “helped to establish peaceful relations.” End quote. And even though I know this book came out before the most recent presidential inauguration, I still had to check the notes to see what present was being considered.

And I’ll say, coincidentally, I’m currently writing about a marble statue of White women, which you see on the left, suffrage leaders, that’s positioned directly across from the Capitol dome, from the baptism– so it’s positioned directly across the Capitol dome from the painting– the baptism of Pocahontas.

And considering the contemporary life of historical works was one of the moments in the book that powerfully suggested the stakes of writing in and as part of an unfolding history, which can feel, I think, really difficult given the long timescales of academic writing. This book, for example, also references the 2021 discoveries of thousands of unmarked graves on the grounds of former residential schools, which is still being investigated.

As a White woman myself, and thinking about this juxtaposition in the capital also seems to underscore Shari’s crucial point about structural violence, that violence against Indigenous women is a legacy of history brought about by colonial practices.

As she puts it, quote, “Conversations surrounding gendered violence often presuppose that women’s vulnerability cuts across boundaries of race and class. But Indigenous women in Canada and the United States fall prey to violence at a higher rate than women in any other group.” End quote.

As I read it, though, the book isn’t oriented towards whiteness, it’s more towards thinking through complex negotiations of solidarity and particularity within and among Indigenous communities and nations. The idea that Indigenous people might be United by a common attachment to the land threads through the book.

However, Shari points out, quote, “Whereas the experience of colonialism does in fact draw native people together across geographical boundaries, culture distinguishes them from one another.” End quote.

So Native Lands attends to this complexity, allowing for the way setting aside cultural and national specificity might be both a colonial trope of erasure, but also a means for pan Indigenous solidarity.

So thinking about this issue of solidarity and particularity, I think, can return us to the question of if and how dominant cultural forms and genre might advance Indigenous political claims. It might return us to Belmore’s fringe, which is one of the three visual works considered in native lands that were created in response to the arrests that Shari talked about.

I’m going to skip since we’re a little bit behind time. Belmore’s artwork is a photograph, but it’s one in which beating figures essentially. As Shari writes, the fringe of beads is a racial signifier that also suggests violence, and helps us think about the way that gender and violence might be intertwined here.

The deep scar here is special effects makeup. And it kind of interrupts our expectation that a photograph will reflect reality. But it also brings together what we might think of as Hollywood artifice and a suturing practice beating that might be thought of as traditional.

And that Shari positions here the woman’s body is what she terms an anti-allegory, a figure of protest rather than of submission in challenging audiences to see Native women and to see them differently, I’m interested in how much work beading does here.

How is the fringe that also points to the fringes in which murdered Indigenous women have been pushed by colonialism that still operative in the present? She also considers Belmore’s 2002 performance. This is called Vigil.

And it begins with the artist silently taking up a bucket and sponge and scrubbing the street in order to evoke colonial histories of domestic labor. And this beginning reminded me of a work by a White Jewish feminist artist, Meryl Youkilis, whose work you see at the bottom.

And she began cleaning New York streets in the late 1960s as part of what she called maintenance art. And it brings up similar questions, I think, about domestic labor. However, crucially for Belmore, this cleaning is only the beginning of a performance which the artist describes as including, quote, “all the elements of classic ritual.”

First, establishing a bounded liminal space through this cleansing. And this beginning, I think, helps to suggest the difference from canonical White feminist practices, but also the relationship between artistic, spiritual, and political power that also threads through Native Lands.

Shari does some great readings on this, looking at Louise Eldridge’s novels, which I’ll just skip over in the interest of time. And then she thinks about the ways that cartography and capitalist ideas of land ownership might be, quote, “the removal of spirit from everything.”

And the novels– these novels suggest an expansion, I thought of what might be seen as political action, an expansion that includes maybe even something like the arrival of a tornado as a political enactment.

She mentions Inuit women who’ve memorialized missing and murdered women with stone structures traditionally used as landmarks. And I could imagine a very different book that’s about stones or baskets or beading, which is not to say these forms don’t appear.

We learn about Walk the Walking with our Sisters Project, which was initiated by the [INAUDIBLE] artist Christina Belcourt, and which includes beaded moccasin tops donated by friends, families, and allies to commemorate missing and murdered women.

We also learn about Erica Lord’s Native America Land Reclamation from 2000 and installation that includes prayer ties, which are made from the red stripes of the US flag that hold soil from Native American territories.

These works are, I think, all we could say, legible as dominant cultural forms, their photography, their installation. But I hope we might also think about the continuation or the revival of maybe non-dominant cultural forms for political work. And I’ll just wrap it there to say, again, thanks for this capacious new archive.

[APPLAUSE]

LUANNE REDEYE: Yeah. So, of course, wanting to start by thanking Shari for the invitation and thinking of me. I always feel so secluded in the art building, so to get an invitation to leave my studio is really nice. And, of course, to Cori for organizing this and the chance to meet Lauren and Bernadette.

I did want to say that this semester, I’m teaching in Indigenous perspectives in art class in art practice, and you’re receiving an invitation to read the book and then speak on the panels was, of course, came at a nice time.

And the information is very salient to the things we’ve been discussing in class, specifically on topics of land-based art and place-based artwork, and especially in speaking about the artists relationality to land and place and translating that for the students of thinking of their own connections to places they come from.

And we did take time at the beginning to speak about Berkeley as a place. And of course, that relationship to the art building being previously called Kroeber and then the Hearst. And that was like a whole week and a half of time where we probably could have spent a lot of time talking about that.

And then our conversations leading into, of course, bodies like Brown bodies, Black bodies, and relating to land. And I did show the artwork of Rebecca Belmore in those sections because one, I really love Rebecca Belmore’s work, but we had the opportunity to watch her– I guess, it’s a performance technically, but it’s much more than that of Vigil.

So the stills are really tough because you don’t really feel like the visceral parts of the performance and in which she’s using even her own body as part of the artwork. Ripping like thorny roses through her mouth and nailing her– the dress that she’s wearing to these different electrical poles and trying to pull herself away as like symbolizing these struggles that would have happened at that specific place in which Picton was frequented and was a known area for that.

And so it was just really nice to former students also, but also the class to have these conversations like spread across beyond like our class or our own area as well and see how they connect to each other. So it was really nice. Thank you.

I thought as part of my few slides is to talk a bit about my work, as well as it relates to place-based identity and land-based identity and the ways in which I referenced that within my work. And as part of my introduction, I did want to take a moment to introduce you to my grandmother, Sadie. She’s the woman in the dark blue.

And then also in the photo is my aunt Sheila who’s standing next to her, and my aunt Rachel who’s kneeling, and then me as a young child. And I was raised by my grandmother. So some of my most sacred time was spent with her.

And since moving to Berkeley, I’ve been finding myself thinking of her a lot more often, and especially thinking of her role in my journey here, because I feel personally, I wouldn’t be able to have these conversations if it weren’t for her. So I really consider my artwork for her. And so I always like to bring in that gratitude anytime I talk about my artwork and to bring her forward in these moments.

So I work across the mediums of painting and drawing, printmaking, beadwork and textile. But at heart, I do consider myself a painter. Like even today, when I was getting ready, I was like, I got paint on my arm from yesterday. I didn’t realize was there.

And so I feel like I’m primarily a painter, portrait, and figurative artist. And in my studio practice, I create images that I want to see which are anchored in my commitment to Indigenous representation. So I incorporate visual storytelling and photographs from my personal archive into my artwork.

And it’s with those images that I draw connections to land and kinship to my specific community. And as was mentioned in the introduction, my work melds these personal narratives of familial relationships and which carries a lot of intimacy within my work.

So there is a strong emotional component to my work for me personally. And so when I’m creating, I carry these memories and stories and pictures with me. And so I’m really holding on to those imprints that I’m looking at.

And so this painting in particular is a newer direction of my work. I’ve been exploring how to meld these various mediums that I work across. So painting, printmaking, like screen print and beadwork.

Here, I didn’t physically beat onto the Canvas. Instead, I translated the designs into these more graphic shapes and then treated them as if they were in screen print, like giving this sort of gradation or ombre effect.

And the designs themselves, you carry symbolism and meaning within Haudenosaunee communities. And now I bring these designs into my work [INTERPOSING VOICES] create accessibility through visual language.

And this visual language, for me, I feel activates the museum or a gallery spaces for Indigenous identities. And I want to offer a sense of belonging in those spaces, especially when Indigenous representation isn’t often seen in contemporary art spaces.

So this is a painting of my friend Lily. The designs are very specific to her, and that she beaded a pair of earrings for me and gifted to me. And then I translated those designs into the painting. So there’s the flatness of the aesthetics of screen prints against the more gestural qualities of paint.

Forward. There we go. At first, I thought I would skip over this, but I’d like to include a bit about this painting. So the portraits I created are of people that I know in their everyday life, such as family, friends, community members. So I’m often looking to the relationships that we hold with each other and then share the stories of my family by weaving together these narratives of home and identity.

So before I move on, especially in context to the book as it speaks about ownership. And I want to take a moment to emphasize the language that I use in talking about my work and about the images that I paint.

My approach to my artwork starts with photographing, and I consider the camera as my sketchbook. And I work from these photographic sources for my paintings. And when thinking about the histories of photography and painting, which we’ve seen already touched on the propaganda of painting, there is this difficult relationship between photography and painting and Indigenous people, and that relationship is extractive and appropriative.

And I’m mindful of this relationship and place value in consent and collaboration as a way to be sure that I’m not engaging in those same practices. And although my work is about my family, I still ask for their consent and participation in the creation of my work.

I also, in speaking about the language I use about my work, I try not to use words like capture, take, or shoot because especially as I’m painting people, it makes it sound like I’m kidnapping someone. So I don’t want to fall within that.

And even in painting, rather than saying subject, I use the person’s name or their pronouns. So of course, don’t view the people that I’m painting as subjects to display. They’re complex people with complex stories. And my paintings are really just showing or sharing a brief moment within their histories, within their stories.

And I mention this because, right away in the introduction of the book, like reading about the ideas of Western ownership. And then for me, just my education being through public universities and my education of art history, being focused on Western art or European art.

And then again, their ideas about ownership or extraction. So I’ve been trying to– I know it’s been a lot of work undoing some of that learning. And even in my class that I’m teaching this semester became a lot about learning and unlearning those histories.

So when I’m home, I’m basically documenting my time together with my family and friends, and then these images become these snippets or these moments in time with them. So from this slide forward, I’ll focus on work that I’ve made over the past year, which we can’t find on my website because I’m really bad at updating it.

So again, place is a significant component of my work. So in a new series I’ve titled Inheritances, I’ve been focusing on embodying a cultural and familial care through my personal archive of family photographs and also historical photographs.

And the images in the work do bring a lot of joy to me, but also empathy and sadness and nostalgia. And as I’ve been working with the images, trying to welcome and also reconcile those emotions that they bring or evoke.

And inheritances centers meaning in materials and materials connection to place, and then memories within those materials and all of this intertwined with Indigenous knowledge and personal healing.

So a brief context for how they’re made. So the images are translated into cyanotypes. And then I tone those cyanotypes using organic materials, some that I’ve bought from the store from the farmer’s market, but others that I’ve brought from home, connected to where I’m from.

And then it’s a kind of a time-consuming process. But then the tone prints are then paired in conversation together with other images to emphasize the kinship of the figures in the histories of the community. So I did want to show a really briefly just the process.

So I take my cyanotype image, which is then processed and fixed to the paper. And with organic materials, I steeped them in hot water, creating essentially a tea bath with those organics. And then you just soak the paper in those tea baths or the prints in that tea bath for 45 minutes, maybe up to three hours. It really depends on the organic material.

And it’s the tannins in the organic or the compounds or the pH of that, that helps to alter the cyanotype. And after you’ve removed them and rinsed them, they give a variation of different colors. So in this example, it’s coffee and black tea and fruit tea. So again, a stronger tannin or stronger compound material will affect the print even more and also stain the paper.

And so I’m bringing it back to that first image. Is it that way? OK. THere we go. Thank you. So as I began this work, I did a lot of experimenting, utilizing materials that were accessible to me, focused on really what colors I could achieve with the various organic.

So a lot of it was food scraps, which was nice. Just eat a couple sweet potatoes and save the scraps and banana peels. I have two small kids, and so they helped by saving all their strawberry tops, which was fun.

They really had a lot of fun bringing me the materials. My freezer was is full of Trader Joes and food scraps at this point. But I really wanted to explore how also color could trigger memory in these images for me as well.

I might skip forward if I can, just to end on one final image. And then yes, OK. So this work is about what I inherit or what I carry from the histories of my community and from my family. So I’m thinking of these histories and finding ways I can tend to or maintain or care for these relationships.

And with bringing a lot of care into the work, for me, it’s taking tangible forms, but also intangible forms. And the care and regeneration has been through the beadwork as part of adorning the prints after they’ve been toned.

So the adorning becomes, for me, a means of pattern making, but also pattern breaking. And in creating this work, I’ve navigated ways to reconcile past events I’ve experienced, my family has experienced, and discover how creativity can serve as a guide towards healing.

And also, it’s been really great because I’ve had these photographs out quite a bit at home. It’s been a means to also share their faces and memories and stories with my young children, especially given that my home is in New York. We don’t get to go home very often. So I’ll end there. Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

BERNADETTE PÉREZ: Thank you so much. And your work is incredible. And these were wonderful presentations. I think what we’re going to do at this point is just open up to you all. And if there are ways to weave some of the comments into audience questions, that’d be fantastic. But we’ll keep an eye out for hands and pass around a microphone. Sarah will have the microphone.

AUDIENCE: Thanks so much. Congrats, Shari, on this amazing book. I actually got the chance to teach a chapter from it in my grad course this semester, and it was– the chapter on fringe, actually, and it was really amazing.

I was just teaching yesterday in that grad class Dylan Robinson’s Hungry Listening, in which he talks about this court case in which an Indigenous song was played in a court or performed in a court, the White judge was like, why are we listening to this song right now?

It has no place in the court. But the defendants were talking about how this song is not just an aesthetic object, but ontologically a presence of history and of land and actually a carrier of legal authority.

So I’m trying to think about– because your book does so much work thinking through the legal and political activism alongside and in connection with the cultural practices. How some of the contemporary Native artists you’re thinking about are challenging or working with the ontology of the art object, as a legal argument, as a literal historical presence, as a real presence of land and not just a detached aesthetic object in Western terms.

Even though they are borrowing and working with some like dominant forms, as you were talking about, are there ways that they’re changing those to bring in these different ontologies of what cultural practice means in these native communities, specifically aligned to these legal and political activism they’re trying to support.

I’m thinking about that amazing cover image, which I would love to hear more about too. The thing that strikes me about that is like palimpsest. But the palimpsest is reversed. It’s the US grid, US settler political system that’s in the background.

And the native symbols and histories are in the foreground rather than the reverse, which would be like, oh, that’s the natural thing. Like, is it palimpsest? There’s traces of Native presences, but the US is on top of it. This seems to reverse that in a really powerful way, which seems to be one of these instances of this is very much not just an artwork. This is historical presence ontologically.

SHARI HUHNDORF: I think more about it. But just to go back to where you started, that question, sometimes in Native Studies in the United States, we look over our northern border with envy because Native Aboriginal politics are so much more visible, so much more talked about in Canada.

And there have been some real advances in the legal system that we don’t have here. And that includes the new treaty process, like the United States stopped making treaties with Native nations in 1871. But Canada just restarted that process and has made all these new treaties.

And it’s not just what’s going on in terms of opening that door. It’s the evidence that’s used in cases. And I can’t remember the name of that case, was it Delgamuukw? That you’re talking about. It might have been Delgamuukw where it was a case in Canada that said that Native stories and Native traditions can be used to substantiate Native Claims to land legally.

And there’s also, increasingly in Canada, scholars working on Native law as it manifests through traditional stories, thinking about traditional stories of themselves as articulating a system of law that we can then teach and use in communities. And so we don’t really have that here. But what we do have here is that same kind of work as you’re suggesting being done in the realm of culture.

And just to use an example from literature, I’m thinking about Louise Erdrich’s tracks which I write about in some detail here, which talks not only about the long native histories in that particular place that she’s writing about, talks about the violence of dispossession and the gender dimensions, the primary character experiences rape as part of her efforts to keep her land.

But also invokes these sort of traditional beliefs about land that manifest through traditional stories as a way of– she wrote that book at the time, and I didn’t mention this in my preface.

She wrote that book not only to reflect on a past, but also to engage in a debate that was going on at the time that she wrote about the aftermath of allotment and this case that said that land title on the White Earth Reservation was actually faulty because of the fraud that happened through allotment.

And so the issue of land was reopened, like who owns the land– she wrote a piece called Who Owns the Land? That was about that. And she was thinking about the novel as a way of intervening in that debate about who owns the land now. And so yeah, that’s just say what’s happening in law in Canada is happening through culture here, but it’s not recognized necessarily as having that same kind of political weight.

AUDIENCE: Thank you for the talk. It’s beautiful. My question is about venues. Obviously, the example of the Pocahontas painting in the capital is a very clear venue. And Yeah, I’m curious when we’re thinking about these land-centered art practices, is there a return– excuse me, a return of the art to the land in a certain way?

Is there any directions in closing the loop artistic practice that is not only about the land or even with the land, but also for the land and resides with the land as a venue? I don’t know.

SHARI HUHNDORF: Yeah. So that is such an interesting question. And where my mind’s going now is that for artists who are attempting to engage in this kind of work of land reclamation, getting a venue that’s really high profile has been crucially important.

And it’s interesting to think about issue of venue so that Corcoran painting, thinking about landscapes so that Corcoran painting is in the National Gallery of Art. Yeah, it’s in one of these big national.

So Monkman recreates this painting, but it’s not in the National Gallery of Art. This one’s in Denver Art Museum, which is a great art museum. But it doesn’t have the same kind of audience and the same kind of exposure as the National Gallery of Art.

So that’s one thing that’s going on is this sort of deliberate effort, maybe even to think about land, but to get as big an audience as possible in these kinds of works. But that’s not to say there’s these other political movements in the native world that are about bringing things back home, bringing things from our campus, from our museum back home.

And thinking about the ways in which when you bring those materials to your communities, they mean something different, they participate in these efforts of cultural revitalization, language revitalization, recovering collective histories, telling stories about ourselves within communities that go to rebuilding identities and that has political articulation.

So these two things going on at once. And I would say they’re part of the same big picture. But some of the works that I’ve been looking at here, including that Belmore image, is a big Billboard, have been about getting these ideas, these images out into very public space to people who don’t see Native people at all, maybe, or who need to see them differently.

LUANNE REDEYE: Actually, your question makes me also think of post commodities work. Was it titled, do you remember when? Is that it? It’s a collective group of three artists. And the first iteration was at the ASU– Arizona State Art Museum.

And they physically cut out like the slab of concrete and lifted it in the museum space so that it showed– so it showed the dirt. The dirt underneath finally had air. And part of the installation was placing that concrete slab on a pedestal and having it face that empty hole that was there.

And above that is a microphone or speakers that is playing songs of the particular nation that, that museum is located on. So it became this physical act of reclaiming and removing, but also revealing parts of the land that hadn’t heard these songs in so long.

And then they did another iteration of that in Sydney in South Wales. I forget the gallery, but it was a similar installation, but they’re again playing songs of that particular land. And so that made me think of venue, but also ways in which artists can– I don’t know, in this case, like reveal the land that was underneath. And also in a way, have visitors or viewers then take stock of, where am I standing right now?

SHARI HUHNDORF: And do you remember this work by Rebecca Bulmer? And I can’t recall it very well, but it’s where she has a big megaphone. It’s called something like voice of the land. And it’s a performance. She has this huge megaphone on the land.

And there was so much to be said about that, including, what it means to think about the land as having voice and giving voice to that place, agency, that sort of a piece with what you’re describing.

BERNADETTE PÉREZ: Fortunately we are out of time. So wonderful, wonderful panel. So we’ll Thank everybody for coming. And check out the book if you can.

[APPLAUSE]

 

CRELS

Consequential Sentences: Computational Analyses of California Parole Hearing Transcripts

Recorded on April 1, 2025, this video features a talk by AJ Alvero, a computational sociologist at Cornell University, presenting findings from an analysis of parole hearing transcripts in California.

This talk is part of a symposium series presented by the UC Berkeley Computational Research for Equity in the Legal System Training Program (CRELS), which trains doctoral students representing a variety of degree programs and expertise areas in the social sciences, computer science and statistics. The talk was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Berkeley Institute of Data Sciences (BIDS).

Abstract

In California, candidates for parole are able to present their case with the support of an attorney to commissioners appointed by the state. These hearings are professionally transcribed, making them highly amenable to a variety of social scientific questions and computational text analysis. In this talk, I will discuss a large project analyzing every parole hearing transcript in California that occurred from November 2007 until November 2019, along with a wealth of administrative data, some of which was obtained after successfully suing the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). In some of our early work, we find that patterns in the text based on the words being used and who is using them (e.g., words used by the parole commissioner) have stronger explanatory power than variables used in past studies. To conclude, I will discuss forthcoming work which takes advantage of the unique structure of the transcripts.

Podcast and Transcript

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

DAVID HARDING: All right, welcome, everyone. My name is Dave Harding. I’m a professor in sociology and faculty director of CRELS, the Computational Research for Equity in the Legal System.

And so we’re a program that trains doctoral students in a variety of degree programs on campus in the intersection of social sciences, computer science, statistics, and the substantive domain of the legal system. Our talk today is co-sponsored by the Berkeley Institute for Data Science and, of course, by the Social Science Matrix, who’s hosting us today.

Just before I introduce our speaker, I want to let doctoral students know that the call for applications for next year’s CRELS’ fellowships, our traineeships, and also the computational social science training program traineeships is out now. Details are on our website crels.berkeley.edu. And the other thing you can do to stay in the loop is to subscribe to our newsletter. There’s also a link on the CRELS’ website for that.

So today we’ll hear from AJ Alvaro, who’s a computational sociologist at Cornell University, with affiliations in sociology, information science, and computer science. He earned his PhD at Stanford and also a master’s degree in statistics there.

His research examines moments of high stakes evaluation, specifically college admissions and parole hearing, which I think we’ll hear about today. In doing so, he addresses questions and topics related to the sociological inquiry of artificial intelligence, culture, language, education, race and ethnicity, and organizational decision making. So welcome, AJ. Take it from there.

AJ ALVERO: Thank you for the lovely introduction. Really happy to be here with you all. And let’s begin. So like David mentioned, my name is AJ Alvaro. I’m an assistant research professor at the Center for Data Science for Enterprise and Society at Cornell University.

And the talk today, which is entitled Consequential Sentences– Computational Analyses of California Parole Hearing Transcripts. We’ll go over a forthcoming paper, as well as I’ll go over some of our plans for future follow-up studies.

OK, so when people hear the word parole, they tend to think of scenes like this. This is from the 1994 film the Shawshank Redemption. Arguably, this is one of the most widely seen examples of what a parole hearing looks like in film and media.

And the scenes tend to look like this. So you have a room. And in the room, there’s a table with old white men in positions of power who decide the fate of a parole candidate. And for example, in the film the Shawshank Redemption, such a candidate is played by Morgan Freeman’s character Red.

So the board asked the candidate questions about their crime, what they did during their time in prison, and asked them to make a case as to why they should be allowed to leave. So this is where the title of my talk comes from.

So the parole candidate is able to speak in complete sentences to explain how they’ve been rehabilitated, their behaviors in prison, if they’ve been on good behavior. They’re allowed to express remorse and so on, again, in complete sentences.

In turn, the board, again, represented by the people at the table, they’re able to determine whether or not they should extend the sentence or to release them back into society.

So as it turns out, the state of California manages their parole process in a fairly similar way. I wonder if there’s some connection between Hollywood depicting parole processes like this and the way California does it.

And California is also one of the few states to do it like this. So with the caveat, though, that when these parole hearings are happening, there’s less windows. It’s not as well lit. And there’s fewer people in the room.

But there’s one key person missing from this scene that is a major player in California parole hearings. And that is a transcriptionist. So in California, the job of the transcriptionist is to accurately record anything and everything that is said in each parole hearing, so that the candidate, the parole candidate, and the board, members of the public are able to review everything that was said in a given hearing.

So I just want to note– the transcription is not actually in the room, but they play a key role in the entire parole hearing process in California. And this is the Penal Code that enshrines this practice in the state.

So this was codified in the early 2000s, meaning that ever since the early 2000s, every single parole hearing has been transcribed digitally into PDFs. And of course, it’s not just one parole hearing, it’s every parole hearing.

And as you can imagine, this creates a lot of data. This is a lot of writing. This is a lot of communication that is digitally inscribed and available for the public to examine. So prior to this, parole hearings were recorded physically as microfiche. But through digitization, the amount of data that becomes available just cascades.

So in this talk, in our broader project, we’re looking at digitized parole hearing transcripts from the year 2007 to 2019. And just in those 12 years, there have been over 35,000 parole hearings conducted in the state of California, which translates to over 5 million pages transcribed, representing over 700 million words. So again, this is a very large corpus.

So lots of information is embedded in the transcripts. I mean, most notably the words that are spoken by each member of a given hearing, the parole candidate, members of the parole board, and attorneys representing the parole candidates.

But it’s not just literally the words, but it’s also what they’re saying. So for example, an attorney might note that the victim of the parole candidate’s crime is in the audience. And again, this information is available in the transcripts.

I just want to note, though, that the process of transcription might not be perfect. So there was a 2019 study by a team of linguists which found that courtroom transcribers, which presumably also make up the pool of parole hearing transcribers, they tended to be less accurate in transcribing the words of Black plaintiffs and defendants. So there is a little bit of– there’s a limitation there, but there’s still a lot of data to work with.

But even with this amount of data, it still isn’t everything that is important if you want to understand parole hearings. So for example, a key piece of information such as the race of the candidate is typically not explicitly stated in the parole transcripts. So you need to do– you need to do some more homework to get that information, which is what we did.

So this is just a little bit of meta discussion about the project. So even with all the data recorded in the transcripts, there were key pieces we still needed to acquire, specifically and especially the racial identity of the parole candidate.

So the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, or the CDCR, they would not share race ethnicity data for– they gave a couple reasons. But obviously, this is a key piece of information that could have really broad impact on society and policy and our understanding of moments of evaluation like this.

So in order to get this data, our team sued the state of California and they got a lot of help from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the z, and forced them to provide racial data. There were other pieces of information that they also provided, along with race, that I’ll go over, but this was the key thing that we were looking for.

So combined, we have the parole hearing transcripts and now we have, this traditional tabular data that we call it CSV, spreadsheets, et cetera. And these form the data core of the project. So it’s this unstructured information from the transcripts and then highly structured information collected, organized, collated, and provided by the CDCR that we had to get through a lawsuit.

So I know there’s a lot of students in the audience. And before getting into the specifics of the paper and our analyses, I also wanted to spend a little bit of time talking about some meta considerations and questions, especially in light of the current US political landscape.

So the paper I’m going to present today– I actually began my career as a tenure track professor in sociology at the University of Florida, even before the current Trump administration. And administration at the University of Florida told me pretty flatly that this work is illegal based on new state level policies regarding higher education.

They also told me, also flatly, that we were applying for grants. And we were invited to apply for a pretty big grant. And they told me that there was a non-zero chance that they would reject the money. So I just want to– I’m not trying to spook you all or anything. And of course, we in this room, we’re not immune to a lot of the federal restrictions and regulations that are coming down.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I do believe that in California, you’re not going to have the same kind of eagerness to enforce these highly restrictive policies that our colleagues in states like Florida have to face. So again, just talk to you all as the students. So that’s one consideration.

Beyond this, there’s additional basic questions that I hope this talk can answer for you all. So one is, how do you do this kind of work? I’m talking about lawsuits, and 35,000 transcriptions, 700 million words. What are some really basic philosophies that you need to consider when you set out to do this work?

The other is why study transcripts at all? There’s a fair amount of literature that relies on tabular data to examine parole processes. But what is it about the transcripts that provides something that traditional data does not? So as you might guess, I believe studying the transcripts is very important. But again, I hope I can convince you as well.

So the first point I want to make is that NLP and AI, despite all the advances, despite the wonders of ChatGPT, it is still not powerful enough to do this work without strong explicit human input.

So there’s a strong– in this work, we draw a lot on computational grounded theory. This is a methodological framework designed by sociologist Laura Nelson, where, again, human input and curation is a key part of the process.

So the next thing, the next meta point I want to make is that doing this work requires a combination of domain expertise and interdisciplinary collaboration. So these are the current main collaborators on this project.

So two of my collaborators, Kristen Bell, is a law professor at the University of Oregon, and Ryan Sakoda, who is a law professor at the University of Iowa. Beyond their legal expertise, they actually have practical, professional experience in parole hearings. So again, they bring a lot of domain and expertise to this project.

Our other collaborator, Jake Searcy, is a professor in data science at the University of Oregon. And he has a lot of experience designing like larger data science projects, as well as technical training in particle physics, which, again, you might not think they’re connected, but he brings a lot of that knowledge into this work.

I think, collectively, what I’m trying to argue here is that if we want to solve these kind of big, broad social problems and questions– similar to 2017 paper by Duncan Watts, where he argues, social scientists, maybe we could do a better job at solving social problems. I think it’s important to bring in different experiences and perspectives.

So then finally, the other meta consideration is that the influx of computational methods to analyze text has created opportunities to study communications, processes, language, and an important social outcomes that were not designed with these tools in mind.

When the decision to transcribe California parole hearings was made, they weren’t thinking about, oh, yeah. And in the future, there could be some cool computational work that leverages text as data. This was not on their radar.

And I think we’re still in that moment where this idea that text as data or text is data is fairly novel, especially to these big social actors. And I think we have an opportunity to talk back to different social institutions and processes.

And other scholars and other domains have made similar arguments. So there’s a historian at Columbia named Matthew Connelly. He’s working with a large archive of federal government communications, like totally internal data. I think he has every communication from the Pentagon, like internal, over several decades.

And again, they weren’t– when they were communicating, they weren’t thinking about these tools coming into existence a few decades later. So these are some meta questions. And I hope these can help seed the conversation and get you thinking about how you can also set out and do this work.

But now we’re going to put those aside for now and go straight into the paper that I’m going to talk about, which is a forthcoming paper in the Berkeley Technology Law Journal. And it’s just about machine learning and parole. And I want to briefly touch on some theoretical and empirical motivations.

So the first is that there’s actually a rich history of social scientists studying parole. So in doing some lit review work, I found articles from the American Sociological Review, which is the flagship journal of the American Sociological Association, as early as 1940, where they’re trying to find out and explain– how are these parole decisions made, and how is it that people are affected differently given their backgrounds, and identities, and experiences? And there was another one in 1955, which compared sociological with psychological perspectives to this basic question.

Anwar and Fang, Young, Huebner and Bynum, and many others all focused on the role of race in predicting outcomes. Is it the case that the race of the parole candidate yields differential predictability in the outcome in a given outcome?

So two caveats to consider is that while these studies are rich and they’re very interesting, they did not consider the full breadth of the transcripts in the actual hearings. So it is possible that in states like California, where they have a full hearing that is, again, transcribed, there could be other things at play that could predict outcomes. And that’s where we come in.

The other thing that I think it’s really important to consider, especially if you’re interested in doing this work, is that the definitions of race here are not self-defined. There isn’t a moment where the parole candidate says, well, this is how I define my own race, as I understand it. All the definitions of race are imposed by the CDCR. They look at you. They say you belong in this category. Job’s done.

And I really wanted– it’s a subtle but important point. And it’s aligned with what sociologist Nancy Lopez called street race. So how you perceive yourself might be different from the way the world perceives you.

So we’re also motivated by our own past research. So this project, I’ve alluded to a couple of times, we call ourselves Project Recon. And the recon there is short for both reconsideration and reconnaissance.

So the overarching goal is to influence policy and practice by shining a light on the parole process in California. And then eventually to help make a tool to help decision makers identify anomalous outcomes and decisions in order to reconsider those cases.

So for example, if it turns out that there’s systematic racial bias in California parole hearings, we want to make a tool that can help them identify those cases and provide evidence as to why they should spend the time reconsidering them.

So to that end, we have former collaborators Jenny Hong. She’s now a research scientist at Meta. She spent a lot of her PhD working on this exact tool. And some of the technical innovations that she came up with, we leverage in the study that I’m going to talk about today.

This is also true for work done by Graham Todd, who’s now a computer science PhD student at NYU, as well as Catalin Voss, who is a– he did the classic Silicon Valley thing. He was computer scientist turned startup founder. But he also did a lot of work on this project.

And even with the current team, Ryan Sakoda, who’s the law professor at Iowa that we’re working with. Independently of all of our work, he has also been examining parole processes and outcomes.

So I also just want to point out the early work led by Kristen Bell, she’s the leader of this project. She wrote a paper in 2021 that, again, designed and implemented this platform, not at a high level, but was testing it out. And in the paper I present today, we present the analyses that informed that platform, if that makes sense.

And that leads, again, to the paper that I’m going to spend most of the talk today going over, which is called Using Machine Learning to Scrutinize Parole Release Hearings. So it’s forthcoming in the Berkeley Technology Law Journal. We’re really excited. If you want a copy, I think I can share. I have to check with my lawyer, literally, about what I’m allowed to do.

Again, beyond this work and this very particular paper, I also want to share some of the perspectives that I bring into this work as a computational sociologist. So one is what I call or think about as this nexus between science and policy. And this first bucket is something that, again, I personally draw a lot from.

And a lot has been written specifically about parole in this context, as well as technology in society. So for example, there was a special issue in The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, co-edited by David Harding, who’s in the room, Bruce Western, and Jasmin Sandelson. But even beyond that, again, there’s a lot written about technology and society.

So quantification is a framework that I draw a lot on, such as the Espeland and Stevens paper from 2008. And there’s also– as technology has advanced, there’s also a lot of work about datacization, digitization, and algorithmic bifurcation.

And there’s a great annual review piece by Jenna Burrell and Marion Fourcade, also in the room, about algorithms in society. And I think, a lot of those arguments are about how state actors, agencies, organizations, things like the CDCR use data and algorithms to shape outcomes, to shape social processes, to mold society into the ways that they want to see it for– in their respective domains.

So my, perhaps, idealistic hope is that in the same way that there’s this top down energy to using data, using algorithms to shape society, perhaps there’s also opportunities to be reflexive, to take a more of a bottom-up approach, to talk back to these state actors, and agencies, and organizations, to push back with data and analyses.

So I’m particularly inspired by 2018 Gender Shades paper. This is by Buolamwini and Gebru. And in that paper, they described racial bias in facial recognition technology. And the pushback from Amazon and the big tech companies was really strong.

But eventually, they changed their policies and practices. And now, arguably, we live in a world where this idea of mass facial recognition is frowned upon. And I think their work really helped develop that.

So finally, this is getting more classic sociological. So I tend to view things a lot from the perspective of culture and language. And to that end, I draw on a lot of work on evaluations such as the work by Lauren Rivera about cultural matching in job hiring.

And Michele Lamont has done a lot of work about evaluation. In the legal research setting, there’s also been studies about parole that kind of also take this perspective. So there was a paper by Bronniman in 2020 that examined expressions of remorse in parole hearings.

And there was another paper by Greene and Dalke, which analyzed expressions of anger and masculinity in parole hearings. So there’s a rich body of literature there. So I just wanted to share– this is the literature that we’re building upon and from. And these are the perspectives that I bring to my contributions to this forthcoming paper.

OK, so getting into the actual paper. So Using Machine Learning to Scrutinize Parole Release Hearings. So we go over the following questions– so one is information extracted from the transcripts using manual annotation– this is the human input that I mentioned, and NLP more predictive of outcomes than traditional tabular data?

Which, the spreadsheets that– again, highly structured data created and collected by the CDCR, that is used most often in this research. So I’m going to give you a sneak peek as to some of the answers to these questions. The answer is yes, but with some important caveats.

So question two, to what extent does the commissioner assigned to preside over a given hearing explain variation in parole release decisions? The answer is quite a bit. It’s a shocking amount. And I’m going to go over that.

Then finally, is hiring a private attorney correlated with higher likelihood to receive parole? So one important feature of California parole is that parole candidates are entitled to an attorney. So you have the option to use your own money and resources or have someone do it on your behalf to hire someone or the board will appoint an attorney for you.

And the answer is that hiring a private attorney has a higher likelihood of receiving parole. And it’s not just because they have cool shoes and they’re very fancy. A lot of what we see is that they have a very different approach to defending a parole candidate in each hearing.

So just to go over the data– so as I mentioned, our data coverage is 12 years. So the first– we begin in January 1, 2007. We go all the way to November 22, 2019. And this represents the universe of parole hearings in this time frame.

So as I mentioned, there’s over 35,000 total hearings, but there were some confidentiality concerns and a few data extraction issues. So the final data set for this particular paper is 34,993.

And the reason why I wanted to point this out is that there is a small difference. And even though there are some key limitations to using NLP, machine learning, and AI in this work, it’s still pretty good. You’re still only going to lose a little over 100 transcripts, in our case, if that makes sense.

So as I already mentioned, over 5 million pages, over 700 million words. Each transcript is about 100 pages, on average, and contains 20,000 words. And I just really want to be explicit here. So every time I mentioned information extracted from the transcripts, this is literally what I’m talking about– words or groups of words or phrases that were extracted from the transcripts.

So most people who go on parole or go to these parole hearings, do not get– are not granted parole the first time, so hence you have fewer parole candidates and more parole hearings. And then finally, the three sources of data that I’m going to be explaining a lot are the NLP. And what I mean by that is the features from the transcripts that were extracted using the computational methods.

There was also a large, long process of manually annotating the transcripts that we use to help with the NLP. But there were also things that we extracted that we didn’t end up using and then the tabular data, which, again, this is the traditional source of data for this kind of work. And this is the data that we sued the CDCR to access.

So just to give you a sense of what this process looks like on a year to year basis– so these are the numbers for 2019. So in 2019, there were 55,000 prisoners eligible for parole. And of those 55,000, 6,000 hearings were scheduled in 2019. So just right there, your odds are not looking good.

So these are the key members of each parole hearing. You have the commissioner. You have the presiding commissioner, who makes the final decision, and the deputy commissioner, who helps out, talks through, gives points, et cetera, but they don’t make the final decision.

You have the parole candidate. You have their attorney. And sometimes you’ll have– the victim will show up to either say, oh, throw away the lock and key or the DA might also show up and do the same thing.

So from these 6,000 hearings, 4,800 were denied, meaning that they were given an additional prison sentence and 1,000 were granted parole. So this is about 80%. So 80% of the time, they are going to deny. And then there’s a very small chance that if you’re in this 1,100, the governor will review and overturn. Oh, yes.

AUDIENCE: How should we think about the commissioners? Who are these people? What are their backgrounds?

AJ ALVERO: They are employees of the CDCR. I will go over some of this. They are employees of the CDCR. And this is just part of their job. They’re somewhat randomly assigned, but not totally. So if you do parole hearings in Soledad, they’re not going to ask you to go down to Tehachapi, if that makes sense. Yeah, yeah.

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] stipulated [INAUDIBLE] or all the other [INAUDIBLE]?

AJ ALVERO: Yes, anything that ends, they’re back here. I mean, the vast majority of which are just– they go through this whole process and they’re denied. Again, this is just 2019, but the process looks the same for 2007, all the way on, even though the numbers change.

The transcripts that I’ve been talking about for so long already, they record every single word that is spoken here. Methods, so I already mentioned we have this tabular data, which was provided by the CDCR. And we have the hearing the hearing transcripts.

So the tabular data– I mean, again, if you look at the literature, you throw it into a regression model. Voila. Not to make light of it, but this is just how it is.

Again, this is where our intervention is coming in. So we use the tabular data also for training. But here we have these two processes where there’s human reading and human labeling of text, which gets us our manually extracted data. And then computationally read and extracted data from our extraction model. And that’s our NLP. Yes.

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

AJ ALVERO: I’m going to show, yeah. This is a good question. But these are probably, arguably the key ones right. So for the extraction model, we used a pre-trained RoBERTa and BigBird model. And again, there was heavy input from the manual annotation and extraction.

I also want to note, part of the reason why we use this was, a lot of this work was done before the release of ChatGPT and the LLMs. But it’s also the case that even after the most powerful models, they all rely on APIs. And we can’t just share the data with OpenAI, if that makes sense. But that might not be the case now with smaller models.

So these are word embedding models. So BERT was created at Google. It stands for bidirectional encoding reinforcement– something transfer. I’d have to– I have to do my homework. So essentially, word embedding models are– you have a big data set.

When I say pre-trained, I just mean– if you look at before LLMs came out, Google Research Labs, they take all the texts on the internet. They use the Common Crawl. And they train their models using that. And then from there, you can use these models to fine tune based on your given data set.

I mean, it was literally out of the box. And then we fine tune it for our purposes. I mean for that slice of time, that was a computational standard. It was very– because this is where I– if this helps, let me know.

So getting to the first question– is information extracted from the transcripts more predictive of outcomes than traditional data? So again, for the tabular data, we had, again, this highly structured data for each parole hearing. And then we have the NLP extracted features for each parole hearing as well. And then for the manual coding, we only hand coded 688 only.

And our model is a pretty straightforward logistic regression model. And basically, the punchline here is that using out-of-sample area under the curve. And we chose this approach because of imbalances in the data, both in terms of comparing 35,000 with 700, but also in the fact that most of the hearings end in a denial. We see that the NLP approach outperformed the other two.

So there was a question earlier about, OK, well, what is this tabular data that you’ve been going on about? So we have the demographics, all of which or most of which are statistically significant. We have whether or not they retained a private attorney.

We have the commissioner grant rate. And then we have whether or not this is initial hearing, years since 2007, and the prison type. And this is it. That’s everything from the tabular data. Again, a lot of literature is based on this.

And look at the other information that you might want to know that goes in– that would go into deciding whether or not someone– or if you’re analyzing a trends and tendencies in parole hearings. So nothing about the conviction, nothing about rehabilitation steps, nothing about disciplinary things or special designations, such as whether or not they’re elderly or if they’re a youth offender.

These are the kinds of things that– I mean, just between us, this seems very important if you want to understand how people are making these decisions. But these are not available in the traditional data. They are available when you add this computational lens to the data.

And here, just going through, we can see that for the manual inspection, psychological assessment was very predictive. The closer to 0, the lower the likelihood. Time, chronos bucket is programs and activities you did while you were serving.

And then with the NLP model, what we were able to do is take all of the manually annotated features and only focus on the ones that had the strongest predictive capabilities. And that’s what you see here. Yes.

AUDIENCE: The psychological assessment, what is it? Is it simply you’ve taken this step or is it–

AJ ALVERO: It’s a risk assessment.

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

AJ ALVERO: Yes, it’s a risk assessment. So if you’re rated as high risk to society. This is capturing that. I mean, it shouldn’t be too surprising that– if you’re labeled that– if you have that label, they’re probably not going to grant you parole.

So obviously, there is more information in the transcripts. I mean, we didn’t need to have a whole talk to understand that. But importantly, this information is more predictive of the decisions and outcomes than the traditional data.

I also want to note that in the paper we control for commissioner variability and the trend still holds. Does this answer your question from– was this helpful or? No, not in the parole hearings.

All right, so going to question two. To what extent does the commissioner assign to preside over a given hearing? Explain variation in parole release decisions. So here on, I’m going to show you a bar chart. Each bar represents a presiding commissioner who conducted 50 or more hearings. And the y-axis here is their respective grant rates. I’m going to show you the five highest grant rates and the five lowest.

So on the high side, there is a commissioner who will grant parole over 50% of the time. And it goes down a little bit, but even still, if you’re in the top five, you’re granting parole 50 to 40% of the time.

On the low end, you have less than a 5% chance, based on the presiding commissioner. And here’s the rest. And as you can see, it’s just a pretty steady slope. So hopefully you’re here, but you could very well just be somewhere over here or maybe even down there.

So it’s important– again, as a reminder, the presiding commissioner, they’re the ones who make the final decision as to whether or not someone is granted parole or not. And the potential for idiosyncrasy suggests that these trends are worth pursuing in further analysis.

So next, is hiring a private attorney correlated with higher likelihood to receive parole? So as a reminder, each parole candidate is given an attorney. The privately hired retained attorney or a board-assigned attorney.

I also just want to note that this public attorney is not the same thing as a public defender in regular court, but it is analogous to that, where they’re assigned someone.

So if you have one of these appointed attorneys or public attorneys, just like totally naively, you have a little over 20% chance of receiving parole, meaning that you have, slightly under 80% chance of not receiving parole.

If you now we compare with the privately hired attorneys, of which 7,000 people went this route. And you can see the probability of getting parole essentially doubles. You go from 20% to 40%.

We see that you have roughly double the likelihood, but do the transcripts give us a clue as to why that might be the case? Or at the very least, are the private attorneys, are they saying something different? There’s not a stamp on their forehead that says private. What are they doing differently in the actual hearings?

So here, this is taking the total number of words used by each member or each actor in the hearings and breaking it down by who’s speaking them. So for the board– again, this is the publicly appointed attorneys. They take up about 8% of the words used in each hearing. So the parole candidates, there are about 26%. And the commissioners there are about 40%.

Compare this with the privately hired attorneys. I know 12% versus 8% doesn’t seem like a whole lot, but this means that the privately retained and hired attorneys are getting 50% more air time, literally just the words being spoken at each hearing, than the board-appointed attorneys. I also want to note, these differences– through statistical testing, these are all statistically significant differences as well.

OK, so purely from this perspective again, OK, the private attorneys are taking up more air time. What does that even mean? Are they speaking more? Or are they just taking up space? Or are they speaking differently?

So here’s where we answer that question. So we had this bespoke statistical model of word frequency for each word used in the hearings. And then here is just a log scale of the total– of how often those words appeared.

So here, if you’re lower, going down, these are the words most often associated or used by the board appointed attorneys. And I know this is here, you can see most of the words, it’s just there’s not a huge difference. But these were the words that were most associated with the publicly assigned attorneys coming from them.

Like, literally, in the transcripts, uh was the most common, followed by um. And you can even see here inaudible, meaning that maybe they were muffled or they weren’t speaking clearly. So there’s just– I mentioned air time and noise. It’s quite literally noise. It’s most often associated with the publicly assigned attorneys.

So on the other side, we have the privately retained attorneys. And here we can see she and her. So it was the case that female parole candidates were more likely to hire attorneys. And so this is captured by that. I know this one is a little bit harder to see, but a lot of these terms are like argumentative terms– evidence, arbitrary exhibit, et cetera.

So what we interpret this as is that the privately held attorneys are making their case more clearly and maybe more articulately as opposed to the public attorneys. Yeah.

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

AJ ALVERO: No, but we did the same thing but in the other direction. So it is the case that there are many, very specific terms that aren’t as ambiguous. And we wanted to see, to what extent are the different attorney types using these different types of terms?

And again, just as a reminder, we have two former attorneys who worked in parole on our team. So we were able to come up with a list of– these are legal standard terms and also cases where parole was central.

So I know this is a lot, but the trend I want to point out here is that for all of these– again, keywords and terms about parole, the retained attorney were more likely to use them. In fact, the only one– and each of these, with the little arrows going up means that these were the terms that are most associated with getting a grant.

So as a note, a plausible here is not– it is the word plausible, but it’s also a legal standard for when someone is claiming innocence. So it would pop up in more cases where the parole candidate is claiming innocence.

And in general, that the board does not like that. They don’t want you to claim innocence. They want you to show remorse, et cetera. So I think that helps explain why this was used more often by the retained attorneys, yes, but in general had a lower likelihood of receiving parole.

We have not done that yet, but we’re working on analogous studies. I’m going to talk about some of them in a second. Yeah, a total administrative, demographic, perspective. We get into some of this– more to your question and comment, we get into some of this in the future studies. But if you have that question still after I go over them, raise your hand again.

But along these same lines, we also broke it down by– again, this is the CDCR label of the parole candidate’s race. We see that if you’re labeled as white or other– and other captures a lot of people from Asian-American backgrounds, you’re more likely to retain an attorney compared to Black and Latinx.

So just a quick recap, the information is more predictive, but also, it comes from domain relevant information. But again, something we want to follow up with is–

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE] they a lot, at this point, [INAUDIBLE].

AJ ALVERO: So question 2, to what extent? So high variability, over 50% to less than 5%, meaning that these important decisions, there is some influence from idiosyncrasy. And is hiring a private attorney– how does that change your outcomes? You’re more likely to receive parole. And also, they tend to speak differently. They have a different approach.

So again, what I’m trying to argue here is, going back, is parole transcripts uniquely show the ways that different factors of the parole hearings are predictive of outcomes. So these results, they also point to future directions of research. So I’m going to quickly go over them.

So I mentioned earlier, we had a grant that we applied for. I don’t work at UF anymore. So I’m able to reapply and all that. So that’s awesome. So one thing we want to look at is racial bias in parole outcomes.

So we see that the tabular data, and the transcripts, and the attorney type, and the presiding commissioner, we see that all these are important in explaining parole outcomes.

But it’s also the case that the racial identification of the parole candidate is also very important to all of these same pieces of information. So what we want to do is start to compare and triangulate, how does racial bias affect the hearings, and evaluations, cetera?

So we also want to do a causal study. So Ryan Sakoda, who’s on our team, not only is he an awesome law professor, he also has a PhD in economics from Harvard. And he was, like, let me do my causal thing.

So we want to examine a couple of policy implementations. So one was the expansion of elderly parole in 2014 and 2020 and the implementation of youth offender parole in these three years.

So then finally, something else we want to do is model the parole hearing as a stochastic process. And what is a stochastic process? You can imagine all the parole hearings have this start point. And all of them have an endpoint of either grant or deny. And each parole hearing takes a path.

You’re going to start here. And you’re going to end up in grant or you’re going to go to deny. But of course, they’re not going to go in straight lines. There’s going to be moments where maybe you end up here, but maybe it seems like you’re going to go to grant, or maybe it seems like, oh, for sure, you’re going to go to deny, et cetera. Same for the grant decisions.

And I think here is where we want to start doing these– at what point in the hearing is the outcome– can we accurately, reliably predict the outcome? Is it the case that even in the first page, where it’s like, what is your name? These kinds of things.

So there was a study in PNAS a couple of years ago, where they did a similar analysis with movie scripts. And it’s like each turn for each character was treated as a step in the process.

Literally if you have a script and it’s Bobby says this, Jimmy says that those. And the transcripts are structured in a very similar way. And it allows for these– what happens at each turn or each step of the hearings.

Thank you very much. This has been great. And I also wanted to put up some citations that informed this work. So thank you all.

[APPLAUSE]

DAVID G.: Hi, I’m David G. I’m faculty at public health. Really interesting talk. This is obviously far from my discipline, but really interested in how this might get taken up by practitioners. Is it something that attorneys that are representing these clients might be interested in and receptive to?

AJ ALVERO: Yeah, so I have two comments on that. So one is at least purely from a data information perspective stance, absolutely. There are things– at least from, again, also a correlational perspective, there seem to be things that parole boards respond more favorably to than others.

So I think as long as we’re going to continue to have this process in California, I think there is a lot of opportunity to coach people up in certain ways. I don’t know how receptive they are to it, but I think, this analysis and information has never been provided to them. So it could be helpful.

The other thing is that California passed the Racial Justice Act. So even beyond coaching up attorneys and what they say, it is possible that some of this work could also maybe even overturn decisions from, again, a legal policy perspective. So maybe we don’t even have to go to the lawyers. Maybe we can just overturn some of these decisions in that way.

AUDIENCE: Seems like there might be some bias.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, my name is Isaac D.. I’m a graduate student in the [INAUDIBLE].

AJ ALVERO: Excited, you too.

ISAAC D: Yeah, thank you. And yeah, thank you for this wonderful talk. And I was also struck by the just wild variance in commissioner outcomes. And it strikes me that there’s also potentially differences, not just in the outcomes but what individual commissioners pay attention to and care about. And so that might show up.

And some commissioners care a lot more about domestic violence than other commissioners. Some commissioners show more racial bias than other commissioners. So I’m curious if you’ve looked into that or how you would approach that.

And then also thinking a little bit about the spatial and time dynamics. So there’s a lot of changes over this period. And certain commissioners or hearing cases at other different periods of time. There’s a different, both legal framework and informal expectations around the parole board. So yeah, the time, place question. And then just other forms of variation beyond just outcomes with the commissioners. Thank you.

AJ ALVERO: So the first thing I’ll say is that we have looked at what you were asking but from a slightly different perspective. So the racial bias future studies thing that I mentioned, one thing that we want to do is take a very upfront and explicit sociolinguistic perspective and ask this question of, is it the case that there are things that, generally, will lead to– are there things that parole candidates can say in the hearings or maybe the way they describe themselves, again, going back to the sentiment analysis idea.

Are there things that they can say that is generally associated with getting a grant? But is it the case that favorability is mediated by race? So for example, is it the case that if you are seen by the parole board as a Black parole candidate and you take a similar approach as white parole candidates who end up getting parole, are you treated the same way?

Or is there some kind of you should be speaking in this particular way because of this particular background, getting into that sociolinguistics 101. So we’re on the wavelength, but maybe slightly different.

The other question is– so I actually didn’t mention this, but we’re going to get transcripts all the way up to 2025. So something we wanted to look at was the effect of COVID. So during COVID, the parole hearings moved to Zoom. And we want to do a study examining, is it the case that the move to Zoom hurt people, it helped people, et cetera? So we’re also on a similar wavelength, but we haven’t– there’s a lot of things we want to do.

AUDIENCE: Hi, thank you. My name is Alan. I’m a PhD student, also from a public health. And I was curious if you– I don’t know if quantitatively this is a different mechanism, but if you looked at the likelihood and patterns in odds of not getting your parole granted.

So not just the outcome of what increase, linguistically, contextually increase in the likelihood of getting your goal granted. But also, was there something along the process, it was, oh, this is going to– at this point or these– these kinds of common patterns, OK, this isn’t going to happen. And understanding the bias and injustice through that lens.

AJ ALVERO: For this particular paper, I think we did some of that. We backed into some of that, in the sense of we weren’t– that’s not what we were setting out to do because ultimately, again, the big overarching idea is that these analyses can inform some tool that gets used to identify anomalous cases.

So I think if we found patterns where we can identify what are things that are said that– you’re talking about reducing the likelihood of–

AUDIENCE: I’m just thinking counterfactually, like when you’re showing how– I mean, in a causal sense. But if you’re showing how these were the terms and phrases used that increase the likelihood of parole. And you might suggest, in a practice sense, these might be ways to cater a practitioner’s or a lawyer’s logic, words, process.

But also understanding, well, what’s happening if the other outcome is occurring where these might be places to avoid? Especially if you’re thinking about potentially for this walk of– OK, where along the hearing is there going to be– I’m imagining.

If I’m a commissioner and, say, hypothetically I have a racial bias. And my racial bias gets really activated at one moment. And at that point, the rest of the hearing is–

[INTERPOSING VOICES]

–because well, why? But it’s just entertained. And through this hearing, it just might feel insensitive or impractical, but the commissioner’s, OK, implicitly it’s over.

And that might reveal some other– I’m imagining, some other mechanisms where the system is working to not actually grant parole is working to enforce and control. And that’s perhaps highlighting some feedback mechanism. OK, well, there is some other pattern here in which the prisons are doing as they’re intended into incarcerate.

AJ ALVERO: Yeah, what is their actual function here? Yeah, I mean, as context, the legal standard is that you go through the parole process to be released. That is the law. That’s what’s enshrined. That’s, again, this legal standard. But as we can see, it’s 80% of the time, you’re not going to get– you’re not going to get parole.

Something we’ve talked about in, again, this stochastic process is exactly what you’re talking about. What are the points when– I mean, it could even be the presiding commissioner says something, where you just start going– it seems like you’re going to be– you’re in that grant trajectory. What are the moments that you just plummet and end up in denial? Yeah, we’re doing a lot of work on that right now.

AUDIENCE: Thank you.

AJ ALVERO: I don’t know if I answered your question.

AUDIENCE: Yeah, no, that was helpful. Thank you.

AUDIENCE: Hey, what’s up everybody. My name is Clarence. I’m an alumni from the Goldman School of Public Policy. So OG up in here. What’s up, Professor Harding, I just recognized. You. But yeah, I want to say amazing job. It’s so dope to see text analysis getting the recognition that it deserves because usually tabular data is king and the go to.

But I had a similar question. I just want to know, how long did that lawsuit take to get all that data and information? And did you say it was only for the tabular data that the lawsuit was for or was it for the transcripts, too?

AJ ALVERO: It was for the tabular data. This is also one of the tensions of this work. Technically, the parole transcripts are publicly available. So you could go cdcr.com, find the parole hearing transcripts. But getting them at– I think they had to help us get all of them rather than us download them one by one.

And the other issue is, even though they’re technically publicly– they’re public data, they’re also really sensitive. So imagine if we do this work. And we just publish everyone’s name who has appeared in our data set. And then every time they google themselves, it’s not, I overcame. I went through this process, whatever. It’s here’s the parole paper. So there’s a lot of tensions there.

Yeah, to answer your question, yes, the tabular data is what we had to sue for. I think overall, I don’t know the timeline, maybe a year or two. I’m not totally sure. I’d have to check.

PROFESSOR: I’ll allow one last question.

AUDIENCE: Thank you. My name is [? Rae ?] [? Willis-Conger. ?] I’m a grad student in the sociology and demography department. Thank you for this talk. It seems like you extracted a lot of information through NLP that was largely categorical and then compare it to the largely categorical demographic data that you sued for.

And obviously, there are differences. But you talk later in the talk about maybe a more narrative analysis. So I’m interested in your thoughts on the differences between narrative analysis using NLP versus this more categorical approach, whether something is more suited to public policy intervention or speaking to inequalities, that sort of thing.

AJ ALVERO: Yeah, so for the first question about the categorical nature, you’re 100% correct. And what we were trying to do was– basically, we trained our model to classify the transcripts.

And that’s where they can get tricky, where it’s maybe one parole or one presiding commissioner uses a slightly different term than another one, but they’re talking about the same piece of information. That’s where the model is able to say, well, this person said that. That person said that, but it all means the same thing. So we can add it to the bucket.

That’s where a lot of this work like was built on. And that’s where a lot of it is going. And I would imagine, for public policy, that’s where it’s– they would prefer that, is my assumption. For the narrative piece, I think part of– you can make really interesting cases and arguments.

But sometimes it can get tricky where it’s– there is this narrative interpretation act that– you’re assuming that when they said something, that is exactly what they meant. And it’s part of this broader story and narrative.

And I think we have to be careful with that because maybe they aren’t– maybe they’re really nervous. And we’re not going to know that just from the transcripts. Or maybe someone made a wink, I don’t know, a furtive wink at the parole candidate and totally threw them off their game. We aren’t going to know that either.

Anyway to get to your question, that’s part of the reason why we’re really trying to anchor some of these future analyzes in the outcomes because regardless of what we don’t know about the– or what we don’t know about the actual hearings, we do know what ends up happening at the end.

And I think that’s our move to get out of some of the interpretive trouble that can pop up with narrative analysis, if that makes sense. I will also say, personally, I did a lot of– my PhD was about studying college admissions essays.

And in that case, we didn’t have the outcomes. So we were always keenly aware of our limitations. So I think here, that’s been my thing is we need to ground this in the outcomes to have the most credibility and validity in our claims.

PROFESSOR: I think let’s join in thanking AJ for a wonderful presentation.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

 

CRELS

Alex Roehrkasse: The New Contours of Mass Incarceration

Recorded on March 18, 2025, this video features a talk by Alexander F. Roehrkasse, Assistant Professor of Sociology and Criminology at Butler University. Roehrkasse’s research focuses on inequality, victimization, punishment, families and children, and quantitative and historical methods. His work has been published in the American Sociological Review, Demography, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Science Advances, Social Forces, and other leading journals. He received his Ph.D. in Sociology from UC Berkeley.

This talk is part of a symposium series presented by the UC Berkeley Computational Research for Equity in the Legal System Training Program (CRELS), which trains doctoral students representing a variety of degree programs and expertise areas in the social sciences, computer science and statistics. The talk was co-sponsored by the Berkeley Institute of Data Sciences (BIDS).

Abstract

The dynamics of inequality in mass incarceration are rapidly changing and poorly understood. In this talk, I present new evidence of declining Black–White inequality and skyrocketing educational inequality in U.S. prison admissions. I qualify these findings by documenting vast racial disparities in indirect contact with the carceral system through families and neighborhoods. I conclude by discussing possible causes of recent inequality trends and potential research strategies for identifying them.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the podcast version of this talk below or on Apple Podcasts.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

DAVID HARDING: Welcome, everyone. My name is Dave Harding. I’m a professor in sociology and faculty director of the CRELS program, which is an acronym for Computational Research for Equity in the Legal System, which is a National Science Foundation-funded training grant for PhD students here at Berkeley. And today is the first talk in our spring speaker series for the CRELS program. And our talk today is co-sponsored by the Berkeley Institute for Data Science, or BIDS.

And just a quick plug for our next talk, which is April 1, and AJ Alvaro from Cornell is coming to talk then. We hope to see you then right back here on April 1. Today we’ll hear from Alex Roehrkasse, who is assistant professor of sociology and criminology at Butler University and a Berkeley PhD graduate. We’re very excited to welcome him back.

His talk is titled “The New Contours of Mass Incarceration,” and his research focuses on inequality, victimization, punishment, families and children, and quantitative and historical methods. His work has been published in the American Sociological Review, Demography, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Science Advances, Social Forces, and other leading journals.

So please welcome– please join me in welcoming [Alex Roehrkasse].

[APPLAUSE]

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Thanks. Thank you. OK. Thank you so much for being here today. I’m really excited to be here. As Dave said, I was trained downstairs on the fourth floor, and so it’s fun to be back in the Social Sciences Building. I want to thank Dave and Harpreet for running this very cool program. I want to thank Sarah for making my visit possible.

So I don’t know your preferred rules of engagement here, but I’m very happy to take questions on the fly. So if you have a question as I’m talking, particularly if anything is unclear, please just flag me down. I’m happy to handle questions on the fly. My talk today is about what I understand to be a pretty big change in the contours of inequality in imprisonment in the United States.

Most of what I’m going to be talking about today are a variety of findings that come from two papers I’ve published recently with a co-author, Chris Muller, who’s formerly of the Sociology Department here, now at Harvard. Chris and I are still working in this area. We’re following up on some of these results. I’ll talk a little bit about some work in progress, really more about future directions we’re hoping to take this work.

And my goals for the talk today are really threefold. First, I want to describe some of these inequality trends in prison admissions in the United States, particularly regarding racial inequality, class inequality. I’ll talk about class inequality. Really, mostly, I’m going to be talking about educational inequality today. We can talk about. Whether or not that’s a good proxy for class. But empirically speaking, I’m mostly going to be talking about educational inequality.

And then I’ll talk through some candidate causes of these inequality trends, some things that might be driving some of these trends. I’ll talk a little bit about some of our early efforts to understand these causes. Though, as you’ll see, what I mean by a cause in each case is a little bit different. And then I want to honestly offer a pretty big caveat for a lot of the initial evidence that I’ll present to you.

And I’ll talk about how actually, a lot of these evidence– pieces of evidence about prison admissions are meaningfully complicated by evidence about inequality in vicarious contact with the prison system through family members, through neighborhoods. And so I’ll talk through some seeming paradoxes in inequality, in the lived experience of mass incarceration. I’ll introduce some ideas that I think are helpful for reasoning through some of these paradoxes, thinking about the lived experience of incarceration more holistically.

So regarding these changing inequality patterns, how do social and legal scholars currently think about these inequalities? What are Chris and I in these papers doing to intervene in this conversation? What do we learn from these interventions? At the risk of gross oversimplification, I do think it’s still helpful to describe, on the one hand, a fairly predominant narrative about mass incarceration over the last half century or so that was very much popularized by the 2010 publication of Michelle Alexander’s The New Jim Crow.

And Alexander draws our attention in particular to the war on drugs as a campaign of racialized social control, one that’s functionally consistent with prior regimes of racial domination. But Alexandra’s account really draws our attention to disparities in the prison system. The disparities that most warrant our attention and warrant action are racial disparities. And the primary drivers of these disparities are things like drug enforcement and drug sentencing. So just a matter of emphasis, but a clear emphasis.

This narrative is not without its critics, as I’m sure many of. And so on the other hand, a variety of scholars who have pointed to a number of facts that are somewhat inconvenient for this narrative. So for example, the role of the Black political leadership class in driving or shaping a lot of America’s punitive turn, or the fact, as John Pfaff has pointed out, that fewer people in American prisons are there for only nonviolent drug offenses than we sometimes assume.

So these critics are by no means in consensus about everything, but they tend to believe that Alexander’s account undersells or downplays the role of violence and violent crime in explaining inequality trends in American imprisonment, and that they also– and that the account also sort of downplays the extent to which poor people, lower class Americans, of all racial identities have been targets of the prison system.

I think this debate has been helpful in many respects. But to be honest, I think there are two really important limitations with this debate, at least as I’ve construed it. One is that the evidentiary basis for some of the claims making about these inequalities is sometimes a little bit thin, or at least unsystematic. And so one of the things we’re trying to do here is just bring more systematic data to this debate about racial and class inequality in imprisonment.

Another problem though is that it’s maybe a little bit out of date. So Alexander and many of her critics were writing from what we now know was a high water mark of mass incarceration, or at least I hope it is. And so now, looking back from where we stand now, this begs some questions about inequality patterns in this– what appears to be somewhat of a new era of modest decarceration. So we’d like to know how things look more recently.

And so just on a very basic level, we’re going to start from a set of questions about how it is that racial and class inequality in prison admission rates in the United States have changed in the 21st century. How does this compare to trends that we know more about in the late 20th century? Credit where credit is due, our approach is very much informed by the earlier work of Bruce Western, who, in his 2006 book, documented pretty high levels of racial inequality in prison admissions. So these are rate ratios, say, comparing the Black prison admission ratio to the White prison admission ratio.

So high levels of racial inequality, but levels that were relatively stable over the period that he was examining. While on the other hand, even higher and indeed increasing levels of educational inequality measured in terms of the rate ratios of people who had not attended college compared to people who had attended college.

Bruce’s work is, I think, grossly understudied in some of these debates or undecided in some of these debates. And it’s really helpful, I think, in adjudicating claims about the late 20th century. But to a very large extent, we’re extending Bruce’s methods, extending the data that he used into the 21st century and seeing how it changes some of our stories about mass incarceration. So how did Bruce create this figure? What did he do to actually get here, and what do we do to update this figure?

So like him, we’ll use– our primary source of data is going to be the National Corrections Reporting Program. The NCRP is really the primary administrative data resource for sociodemographic information on people entering prisons in the United States. So information about people’s race, ethnicity, educational attainment, things like this. This is really the best place to go for information like this. Yeah, clarifying question.

AUDIENCE: Yeah. I’m wondering if you break it down at all by state?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: We’ll talk about geographic inequality– I’m happy to talk about rural urban divides a little bit more. Hold on for just one second. I’ll talk a little bit why that’s difficult. Yeah. So the NCRP though is– only tracks admissions to state prisons. So I’m not going to talk about federal prisons today. It’s important to acknowledge dynamics that are actually pretty different, so other people should do that work.

The main problem with the NCRP, and I just want to be transparent that this is probably the biggest limitation in our study, is that it’s– the reporting has actually gotten quite good in recent years. The NCRP captures almost every state every year these days, not so much true in the 80s and 90s. So there are a lot of states that are not regularly reporting to the NCRP in earlier years, OK?

In a variety of sensitivity analyzes, what we do do is try to impute missing values of variables in observed or reported prison admission records. So if we have a record and there’s missing information in it, we’re often imputing that information, missing information about people’s ethnicity, more often, their educational attainment. We find that of strategies for dealing with missing values, our results are not really sensitive to different reasonable approaches.

But this is different than missing records altogether. So there are very many records that just don’t show up in the NCRP. And I want to be clear that we are not trying to impute the counts of records that don’t get reported to the NCRP. If we were to use the NCRP just to tabulate admissions to state prisons, we would have wildly erratic figures just as a function of irregular reporting to the NCRP.

So what we do instead is supplement our approach with data from the National Prisoner Statistics Program, and this is a much more reliable count of all people admitted to prison in any given year. The problem is, we don’t have the same level of sociodemographic detail in those data as we do in the NCRP. So trying to leverage the demographic detail of the NCRP and the reliability of the NPS and combine them to get some sort of count of admissions by race and educational attainment.

So we’ll use these sources to count admissions, and then we’ll calculate population rates of admission using population data from the merged outgoing rotation groups of the current population survey. OK. So what does this actually look like? How do we marshal these data? So our analysis is going to start in 1984 when the NCRP gets decent, and then it’ll go through 2019, which is the last year for which we have data from the National Prisoner Statistics. So I want to be clear that we don’t know as much about what’s happened in the last five years. Things could be quite a bit different, honestly, over that period. So I want to be clear that we’re– I might talk about today. But really, by today, I mean 2019. We only have data up through 2019.

We’re going to focus on Black and white, non-Hispanic people. We’re working on incorporating more Hispanic people into our analyzes, but I won’t be showing any results for Hispanic folks today. And then we’re going to subdivide the population into two education groups. And we’re going to slice the educational attainment distribution at the margin of whether or not you’ve attended college. So if you attended a college and not necessarily gotten a degree, have you ever attended college? Have you spent any time in college or have you spent no time in college?

This isn’t necessarily the education margin we would have chosen if we had our choice. Although it ends up being a pretty important one, a pretty interesting one. We’re working on analyzing other margins, and this does actually seem to be a pretty big one. This is a margin at which a lot of inequality is actually arising. The main reason we do it is that this is the most– the margin for which we have the most consistent measures over the whole period of our analysis. It’s also what Western did, so it makes our results comparable with his. That’s always nice.

And so the way we’re going to combine these two pieces of– two sources of data to get account of prison emissions is that in any given year, we’ll look at, what proportion of all admissions observed in the NCRP, whether it’s from 20 states or 45 states or 50 states, what proportion of prison admissions observed in the NCRP correspond to each racial and educational group? So what percentage of observed records belong to, say, Black Americans who had attended college or white Americans who had not attended college?

So we’ll calculate a proportion corresponding to each year racial and educational group, and then we’ll multiply that proportion by the much more reliable count of all prison admissions in any given year. And so by multiplying the NCRP proportion by the NPS count, we’ll get an estimate of the number of admissions for each year, each racial group, each educational group. And we’ll just use our population data to calculate a prison admission rate. So nothing too fancy.

What do we find? So here are our prison admission rates annually from 1984 to 2019, stratified by racial group and educational group. I think most striking is obviously the very, very high prison admission rate for Black Americans without a college education over the whole period of our analysis. Obviously, this meteoric rise in the late 20th century. But it’s fallen by about half gradually over the last 20 years or so.

Also striking is this initially low but steadily increasing rate of prison admissions among white Americans without a college education. This is absolutely a large increase, but because of the low initial levels, proportionately, it’s a huge increase from about 200 per 100,000 to about 1,200 per 100,000. So it’s about a six-fold increase for that group. It’s a pretty striking increase. Obviously, much lower admissions among people who have been to college, so it’s a little bit hard to interpret these trends. I promise, I’ll get you there.

But you can see that for no college or, sorry, any college Black Americans, the rate has been decreasing since about 1990 or so. It’s hard to even see any change for white college-educated Americans, but it’s actually steadily increasing over the whole period. OK. This is talk about inequality though. So how are we going to measure inequality? How do we think about inequality in prison admission rates?

We think it’s most helpful to think in terms of rate ratios. So I’ll be showing you evidence where we divide the Black prison admission rate by the White prison admission rate in any given year for any given educational group. And then conversely, we’ll divide the no-college rate by any college rate for each racial group. What are these rate ratios look like?

Obviously, in the early part of our analysis, racial inequality, at least between Black and white Americans, was pretty extreme. So the pattern here is the same. Obviously, inequality is a little bit higher for people with any college. But Black Americans were roughly eight times more likely to enter prison in any given year than their white counterparts in the early part of our analysis.

Obviously, and quite happily, this has fallen considerably. So in 2019, the numbers are much lower. But I really want to emphasize in this talk that these numbers are still very high. So among people without a college education, Black Americans are still about twice as likely as their white counterparts to go to prison in any given year. And for people with a college education, Black Americans are about 2.6 times more likely than their white counterparts to be admitted to prison in any given year, OK? So it’s just, we need to be careful when we talk about these things. Huge decrease, still really large disparities.

The story for educational inequality is quite a bit different. So in the early period, disparities between people without a college education and with a college education, both among Black Americans and white Americans, were roughly comparable in scale to racial disparities. So in the early part of our analysis, I think we can say that, at least as we measure it– it’s a little bit measure dependent. But at least as we measure it, racial inequality, educational inequality, we’re roughly comparable in scale. But of course, they have very different trends.

This is a logarithmic scale, so that’s important to note. By 2019, among Black Americans, people without a college education were 26 times more likely to be admitted to prison in any given year than their counterparts who had attended college. And among white people, people who had not attended college were 32 times more likely to enter prison than people who had not gone to college. So really, just enormous disparities.

I’ll give you a minute to take pictures. [LAUGHS] I’m happy to send you any of these slides though. OK. So these are just the preliminary descriptive findings about overall inequality. But what’s driving these trends? I think obviously, the causes are many. It’s probably going to take a generation of research to really figure out what’s going on here, but I do want to talk through for candidate causes here that I’m thinking about that Chris and I have published a little bit about that’s guiding some of my research going forward. So four things.

The first is the role of specific offenses in contributing to prison admissions in different ways. So what kinds of offenses are driving these inequality trends? Second, how might changes in the educational attainment of Americans over this period, which have been pretty substantial, drive or maybe just confound some of our analyzes? How would we want to think about that fact?

Third, Americans are not sorted into different communities randomly, different kinds of people live in different kinds of places systematically. And we know from a research including people in this room that subnational criminal legal system reform is uneven across the country. And so maybe it is that some people in our analysis are experiencing criminal justice reforms that other people aren’t.

And then lastly, I want to speculate about some technological economic changes over this period that might be driving differential change in people’s risk of coming into contact with the criminal legal system. OK. Regarding offenses and how different offenses might be contributing to these inequality trends. Recall that part of what was at stake in this debate, at least as I described it, is not only the relative salience of racial and educational inequality, but also the kinds of offenses that were driving it. How important were drug offenses? How important is violent crime to explaining some of these stories? So we’ll just ask straightforwardly, how did specific offenses contribute to some of these inequality patterns?

To do this, what we’ll do is group prison admissions according to the offense for which people are admitted to prison, and we’ll use the Bureau of Justice Statistics classification scheme for doing this. BJS tends to classify offenses into five different categories– drug offenses, violent offenses, property offenses, public order offenses, and then a catch all other category. It’s important to note that admissions get classified according to the most serious offense. So that’s the offense with the longest sentence.

Many people are admitted though for multiple sentences, and so this does generate some complications. I’m happy to talk about them in the Q&A. If we don’t think carefully about how admissions are classified according to offense, we might lead us to some erroneous inferences. But it’s important to understand that the estimated prison admission rate for each year, racial group, and educational group is just the sum of all of the offense specific rates for that group. So we just add up the offense-specific rates to get to the overall admission rate. And then the rest of our calculations are just the same as before, except that we’re indexing our count of admissions by the offense category.

AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. Like disturbing the peace. I think that resisting arrest goes in there, not in the violent category. Things where causing trouble but not necessarily harming someone or don’t intend to harm someone. Drunk driving might be in there. You’ll see it’s– I’m really going to talk about the first three. The last two just actually don’t matter all that much, so I haven’t thought all that much about it. Yeah, I don’t actually know too much what goes into that category. Yeah.

AUDIENCE: Small stuff.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Small stuff, yeah. Well, but these are people who are going to prison, not jail. So it’s not, strictly speaking, really small stuff. Yeah.

AUDIENCE: Just not violent.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. OK. So what do we start to see when we stratify our previous analysis by the offenses that lead people to be admitted to prison? So here you see, for each of our four groups, each ribbon represents an offense-specific admission rate. And these ribbons are stacked. So you can think of the top of the top ribbon as being the total admission rate that I showed you in the previous slides, but now you just see it broken down by the different offenses that are contributing to it.

So note that each panel has a different scale here, so we shouldn’t be comparing the panels. Really, what we’re interested in here is like, how do these ribbons sort of compose the total admission rate? And there was an important thing to take away from this slide, is that it really is these three offense categories, namely drug, violence, and property offenses that are contributing to the bulk of admissions, but also the majority of change in admissions. And so it’s really those three offense categories that we’re going to focus on, just for simplicity in the rest of our analyzes.

What do we see when we start to compare the scale of admissions though across these different offense categories? Well, in some cases, say for white Americans without a college degree, the offense-specific patterns look pretty similar to one another, and therefore also pretty similar to the overall admission rate. So not a lot of interesting things happening for white no-college-educated people, for example.

In other cases though, there are some interesting qualitative divergences. So if we look at the no-college Black American group, the highest lines here, we see that for drug offenses as well as property offenses, admission rates have declined pretty substantially, although, obviously, at different rates. This is not true for violent offenses. Admissions for violent offenses among Black Americans with no college education have kind of leveled out over the last 20 years, not showing too many signs of change.

One consequence of that leveling out is that racial inequality in admissions for violent offenses has decreased much less than it has for drug offenses and property offenses. Less interesting to say about inequality in educational or educational inequality and admissions stratified by offenses. But honestly, this is not why we did this stratification. What we really want to do is decompose the overall admission rate and ask, to what extent did the offense-specific rates contribute to overall inequalities? How much can we attribute racial inequality, how much can we attribute educational inequality to drug admissions, to violent admissions, to property admissions?

So how do we do this? Define some set of offenses O prime. That’s essentially those five offenses that I said minus any particular offense. So O prime is just all the offenses less offense O. And then we’ll define a counterfactual rate for Black Americans where what we do is substitute– let’s say we’re talking about drug offenses. We’ll substitute the white admission rate for drug offenses but retain the Black rate for all the other offenses.

So essentially, what we’re doing here is asking how much the total racial or total educational inequality in admissions would be different if admissions for one specific cause were equalized? We do the same for no college people where we substitute any college rate for one specific offense, retain the no college rate for all the other offenses. And then we take essentially a ratio of the rate ratios where we divide the observed rate ratio, so the evidence that I showed you before, by the counterfactual rate ratio.

And then this estimated phi here essentially tells us the factor by which overall inequality, as we actually observe it, increases as a result of inequality in admissions for a particular offense. So, say, for drug offenses, phi hat would tell us here, how much does racial inequality increase as a result of inequality in drug offenses compared to a scenario where drug offenses were actually equal across these two racial groups? So what do we see when we do this decomposition?

So racial inequality is on the top. Educational inequality is on the bottom. I’ve drawn a line here at one– if the line were at one, it would essentially say that offense contributes nothing to the overall inequality. And so the trends here– the lines indicate the factor by which, how many times by which the disparity increases as a result of inequality in that specific offense. So it’s a little counterintuitive, I grant.

Essentially though, higher values mean that that offense is contributing more to overall inequality, OK? What do we see? It’s actually quite interesting, quite striking how similar three of these panels are. The patterns for racial inequality among people with and without college, and the patterns for educational inequality among Black Americans are strikingly similar. What do we see in these three panels?

Property crimes are the primary driver of inequality in the earliest parts of our analysis, so this dotted green line. Property crimes are here driving most of the inequality, the greatest share of the inequality. But then in the decades surrounding the turn of the century, we see this huge increase in the significance of admissions for drug offenses. And that’s sustained for a couple of decades, but then it starts to drop off pretty meaningfully over the last 10 or 15 years.

And then Meanwhile, the significance of violence or violent offenses either remain stable or starts to somewhat increase such that toward the end of our analysis, for each of these three dimensions of inequality, violence starts to emerge as the primary driver of disparities of these three types. OK. Patterns are a bit different though for educational inequality among white Americans. So some things are similar. We see this steadily declining significance of property crimes for all kinds of inequality here. Although for educational inequality among white Americans, it just remains absolutely more significant. Property crime is the main driver over the whole period of analysis for this group.

The main difference is that the significance of drug offenses to educational inequality among white Americans starts out very small, as it does for all the other groups, but rises steadily over the whole period of analysis such that it’s now one of the main drivers of inequality for that group. OK. So this is of what we learned from decomposing our findings in this way.

Another consideration though is honestly, as I said, more of a confounder than a cause. We would want to make sure we understood or were addressing this factor if we were to give confident interpretation to our results. And that’s the fact that during the period we study, there’s a pretty significant change in the educational attainment of Americans, particularly more people are going to college.

This has the consequence that both our lower education group, people without college, and our higher education group, people who attend college, are increasingly negatively selected over time. This can bias our result of educational inequality. And it essentially means that without some sort of adjustment or correction, if we only rely on nominal education groups, we’re not comparing people of similar, relative social advantage or disadvantage over time. We’re comparing apples and oranges if we compare people who have and haven’t been to college in 1984 and 2019.

And so we do a adjustment to correct for this. I should note that this has been a point of some methodological contention in the research program around educational inequality in mortality, particularly due to deaths of despair. And so there’s actually been a lot of methodological innovation in this space as well. I think what we do is probably the most rigorous thing you could do with our data. But if you’re interested in more computationally intensive approaches to dealing with educational selection, I’m happy to talk about them.

So essentially, we’re asking here, to what extent are these changing levels of educational attainment contributing to our results? Might they be biasing our results? What do we see if we were to control for this changing selection? I’m going to spare you the math here and just reason through some illustrations. So what do we do here?

Recall that in our main analysis, we’re comparing people who have and have not been to college. So just two groups. In our adjustment, what we do is split that lower group into two more detailed groups– people who completed four years of high school and people who didn’t complete four years of high school. The completers, we don’t actually know if they have their diploma or not. But we’ll just call them high school completers, and we’ll call the other folks high school dropouts, OK?

So this figure is for, Black Americans and white Americans, the proportion of the population– I should have said earlier, this whole analysis focuses on people aged 20 to 39. So this is the proportion of the population who fall into these three, more-detailed education groups, OK? So first what we do is calculate a prison admission rate for each of these three more-detailed groups. It’ll obviously be the same for this any college group. That doesn’t change. But we’re calculating two different admission rates for these two different detailed educational groups.

Then what we do is calculate the proportion of people falling into the no-college or any-college group in 2019. And 2019 will be our reference year. It will the year to which we index everything. We’re trying to replicate conditions in 2019. So that’s this dotted line here. So in 2019, 60% of Black Americans in this age group had attended college, 40% had not. Slightly different numbers for white Americans. So you want to think about that dotted line as being like a threshold that we’re trying to reproduce in any given year. We’re trying to redistribute people so that they fall either above or below that threshold.

Then what we do is essentially ask, what proportion of the high school completers, this middle group, fell above or below that line in any given year? So say in 2000, this proportion of high school completers would have attended college if we put them in a time machine and moved them up to 2019 given their position in the educational distribution in that year. And then the last move we make is to essentially calculate a weighted average of the detailed admission rates in any given year.

So for our no college group, what we’re going to do is essentially add up this chunk of folks and this chunk of folks and calculate a weighted admission rate for them. And then in– for the no-college or any-college group rather, we’ll do a weighted average of these folks and the rest of the folks. So it’s essentially just a weighting exercise where we’re using a more-detailed set of prison admission rates and then reassigning people according to whether they would or would not have attended college in 2019 given their position in the educational distribution in any given year. OK.

So this is essentially analyzing fixed proportions of the educational attainment distribution. So it’s more or less achieves our goal of analyzing people with similar levels of social and economic advantage. They’re analyzing their position in the distribution. This, of course, is only valid on the assumption that people within any given group have a uniform risk of imprisonment. Maybe that’s a strong assumption, but it’s the best we can do.

What changes when we do these adjustments? Well, as regards racial inequality, basically nothing. It doesn’t really change our analysis. So that’s good to know. As regards educational inequality though, things do change a bit. So the red line is our adjusted results. Black line is without the adjustment. So you can think of these as analyzing nominal educational categories, these as analyzing the kind of fixed proportions of the educational attainment distribution.

By construction, they’re going to be identical in 2019. But as you can see in earlier years, they’re quite a bit different. More specifically, we see lower levels of initial educational inequality in the adjusted results. And that’s more or less to be expected, given the way we do the adjustment, because we’re essentially reassigning some of these high school completers to any college group. They’re going to have higher risk of imprisonment. And so to an extent, it’s an artifact of our method.

But this, I don’t think, really changes qualitatively, our conclusions, our findings. Our story doesn’t change. If anything, it really just shows that if we were to think about fixed levels of advantage, this story about educational inequality, it’s even more dramatic. The absolute scale of the change is even bigger, and the pace of that change is actually accelerating even faster.

I want to briefly talk through a couple more candidate causes that Chris and I are now just kind of starting to work on. So I won’t show you any evidence here, but I’ll reason through how we plan to go about studying some of these things. So a third consideration is that any explanation for these inequality trends would ideally account for the fact that the people we study are nonrandomly sorted into different places.

And we know, from a variety of research, that the punitiveness of the US prison system is not uniform, and it’s not stagnant. It’s changing. Katherine Beckett and her colleagues have shown recently that the ratio of prison admissions to crime rates or to arrest rates is actually decreasing in urban areas, but increasing in rural areas. That is to say, we can think about the punitiveness of rural areas as increasing over the last 15, 20 years and the punitiveness of urban areas as decreasing somewhat, OK?

Of course, people of different racial and educational groups are more or less likely to live in rural or urban areas, and so some of our findings might be driven, at least in part, by the fact that Black Americans and college-educated Americans might be disproportionately likely to enjoy some of the liberal or progressive criminal legal system reforms that are concentrated in urban areas. Whereas white Americans, less educated Americans who disproportionately live in rural areas, might be more likely to disproportionately experience more punishing, harsher criminal legal system regimes.

And so we’re working on this. We’re trying to further stratify and decompose our findings according to whether or not people are admitted to prison from a rural or an urban county. We only have county-level data, so this complicates things. We only have good crosswalks since 2006, so we’re actually not able to say so much about the late 20th century. We can say much more about the recent past. I’m happy to talk more about this in the Q&A, but we really only have very, very preliminary findings here.

Another striking feature of our results is that the inequality patterns we document correspond very closely to some of the inequality patterns documented by Anne Case and Angus Deaton in their research on changing life expectancy and changing mortality. They also correspond very closely to some recent research by Raj Chetty and his colleagues on changing patterns of socioeconomic mobility.

This points us to think about factors, honestly, beyond the criminal legal system, factors that shape Americans life chances more broadly. That might explain not only mortality, not only socioeconomic mobility, but also imprisonment risk. So one of the things we’re doing now is to, I think, think more carefully about the degree to which this is consonant more generally with arguably with Bill Wilson’s thesis about when work disappears. To what extent are some of the changes we’re currently seeing among low-college or no-college white Americans the result of decreases in demand for low skilled labor that earlier hit black Americans in the late 20th century, black Americans without a college education.

And so one of the things we’re doing to try to understand the changes in labor markets and their effect on imprisonment rates is to combine data– our imprisonment data with data on local labor market exposure to automation. So these data come from Daron Acemoglu’s recent paper on robots and jobs, and we’re trying to ask the degree to which exposure to automation, which we now know had a really significant effect on both employment and wages, might also explain some of the changes we see in imprisonment trends.

I said I was going to give you a caveat at the end, and it’s time for the caveat. Mostly, I’ve been documenting or describing our results regarding declining racial inequality and skyrocketing educational inequality. I said that these were roughly comparable in the early part of our analysis, although they’re obviously measure-dependent. But I think, honestly, by any reasonable measure it’s, I think, fair to say that educational inequality now dwarfs racial inequality in prison admissions, OK?

But to state the obvious, going to prison oneself is not the only way that one comes into contact with the carceral system. Our friends, our family members, our neighbors might go to prison. And we know, from a lot of research, that these vicarious contacts with the prison system are pretty consequential for our health, for our income, for our civic engagement, for our trust in the law.

And so I want to highlight a seeming paradox that Chris and I have documented recently. Most of these results come from our social forces paper from a few years ago. But I take pains to emphasize this because I think it really does complicate some of the prior trends that I showed. And that’s that despite declining racial inequality in prison admissions and skyrocketing educational inequality in prison admissions, it actually remains the case that as regards vicarious contact with the prison system, that is, the imprisonment of people’s family members or their exposure to high-imprisonment neighborhoods, racial inequality remains at least as large and maybe even larger than educational inequality, OK?

So we have a divergence in inequality patterns between direct and indirect contact with the prison system. And this seems a little bit paradoxical. It wasn’t immediately clear to us how this could be the case. So let me show you first some evidence about this, and then I’ll try to reason through this seeming paradox. So I’ll spare you the detailed data and methods, but these results come from an analysis of the Fam HIS Survey.

Fam HIS is a survey that was fielded in 2018, and it was designed specifically to measure family member incarceration. So how likely people are to have a family member incarcerated. So we look more specifically at the imprisonment– not just the incarceration, but the imprisonment of a close family member. So a spouse, a child, a parent.

And what we see is that using the same divisions here, that the Black-white disparities in the likelihood that someone has a close family member imprisoned are actually a bit larger than the educational disparities in family member imprisonment. This is somewhat at odds with the evidence I showed you about prison admissions. Similar difference in results when we look at neighborhood imprisonment. So here what we do is rely on a resource called the Justice Atlas of Sentencing and Corrections. And this is a little known data set that covers, I think, only 13 states, but it has the unique value of measuring imprisonment rates at the census tract level. So this allows us to get a better sense of neighborhood world imprisonment.

So we use this resource to ask then, what neighborhoods in these places have very low levels of imprisonment , so the lowest half of the neighborhoods in terms of their imprisonment rate, or, say, very high levels of imprisonment, so the top 5% of neighborhoods with respect to their imprisonment rate? So we first measure neighborhoods in terms of their imprisonment rate. And then we ask, how likely are people of different racial groups or different educational groups to live in a very low-imprisonment neighborhood or a very high-imprisonment neighborhood? OK? What do we see here?

Well, regarding very high-imprisonment neighborhoods, the Black-white ratio in the likelihood that one lives in a very high-imprisonment neighborhood is very large. And indeed, considerably larger than the educational disparities in the likelihood that someone lives in a very high-imprisonment neighborhood. The inverse is true for low-imprisonment neighborhoods. Black Americans are about half as likely as white Americans to live in a low-imprisonment neighborhood, whereas the corresponding educational disparities aren’t quite as large.

Essentially, what we’re seeing here is that whereas educational inequality in prison admissions is now much larger than racial inequality in prison admissions, the same is not true for indirect contact or vicarious contact with the prison system. There, racial inequality seems to continue to predominate. How? This seems like a paradox. We think we can make sense of it, though, using this idea of class permeability, which is an idea that comes from Erik Olin Wright’s work.

Classical permeability is essentially the degree to which we are socially connected to people from other classes. It’s a version of social capital, you might think. And so if class glass shapes inequality in imprisonment, then one’s total exposure to the prison system is a function of one’s class position, which shapes the likelihood that you go to prison, but also your class permeability, which shapes the imprisonment risk for the people to whom you’re connected. OK?

And so a large literature documents higher rates of downward social mobility among Black Americans compared to their white counterparts. And this means that Black Americans of any given class position are more likely to have poorer family members than their white counterparts. Again, countless studies show that as a result of segregation, ghettoization, residential discrimination, middle class Americans, even upper class– sorry, middle class Black Americans, even upper class Black Americans, are much more likely to live in poor neighborhoods than their white counterparts.

So what this means essentially is that Black Americans have much more downward class permeability than their white counterparts, given any class position. And so it’s actually racial inequality in class permeability that helps explain this paradox in results. It’s racial inequality and class permeability that really helps us explain how persistent racial inequality in vicarious contact with the prison system can continue even in an era where racial inequality in imprisonment is declining and class inequality in imprisonment is skyrocketing.

I think it’s time to wrap things up. So what have we learned by way of conclusion? Black-white inequality in US prison admissions is declining, but it remains really high. So I just want to restate that among people without a college education, Black Americans are still twice as likely as white Americans to go to prison. Among people with a college education, Black Americans are 2.6 times more likely to go to prison than their white counterparts.

Meanwhile, educational inequality in prison admission is just skyrocketing. So depending on whether we’re talking about Black or white Americans, people without a college education are somewhere between 24 and 32 times more likely to be admitted to prison in any given year than people who have attended college. Drug offenses really did drive high black inequality in– high Black-white inequality in prison admissions during the war on drugs. But in more recent years, it’s been violent offenses that are now the primary driver of both Black-white inequality among people with and without college, and also educational inequality among Black Americans.

And so to return to this debate, I think our findings do largely corroborate Alexander’s account about what happened in the United States during the war on drugs. But I think some of her critics are vindicated in their description of more recent years. And so maybe it’s a cop out. I think the diplomatic answer here is that actually both sides are right, but they’re actually right about successive, somewhat distinct historical periods. Alexander, looking backward, really was describing accurately what was going on in the United States at the time. In more recent years, I think we need to update some of these accounts about both the primary contours and also the primary drivers of inequality in mass incarceration.

I think it’s important to state– to clarify that educational selection does not account for our findings. They’re not an artifact of the changing educational distribution in the United States. And I want to restate this caveat, that patterns of vicarious exposure significantly qualify any claims that someone might make about the declining significance of race to mass incarceration. Across generations, racial differences in residential attainment and social mobility have led to really large racial differences in what we call class permeability, and this makes racial inequality in vicarious exposure to the prison system at least as large as educational inequalities.

And so I think this helps us see that we would do well to think not only intersectionally, but also holistically about the lived experience of mass incarceration. Not only the likelihood that we go to prison, but the likelihood that our loved ones, our community members go to prison. I think this helps us understand much better. The new contours of mass incarceration in the United States today and beyond. That’s my talk. Thank you so much for your time and attention. If you have questions, or you can email me or find out more about my research on the website. Thanks.

MODERATOR: Thank you so much, Alex.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah.

MODERATOR: If you have questions, fell free to send [INAUDIBLE]. We have approximately 10 ish minutes. Questions, observation.

AUDIENCE: Hi.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Hi.

AUDIENCE: Are you familiar with Paul Butler’s paper on his belief that incarceration is not a solution for various offenses, but rather that Black men should be returned to the community where their community would take care of them rather than going into prison? And he puts forward that African-American jurors should not convict African-Americans for low-level offenses.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: I’m not familiar with the paper you describe, but I think I’m broadly sympathetic to the argument. Yeah.

AUDIENCE: Yeah. It was very controversial, and it was in a lot of places, just the idea that rather than incarceration, that sending black men with low-violent– nonviolent offenses back into the community because that reduces just what you were talking about, the exposure to the prison system to the community.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. I think the preponderance of evidence indicates that we could significantly decarcerate the population with probably net positive effects on– net negative effects, I guess, on crime rates in the United States. And it’s needless to say that this would have a host of positive social effects as well. Yeah.

MODERATOR: One more thing. Can you also introduce yourself?

AUDIENCE: Sure. Neil Fligstein, sociology. So at the end of this– so we talked earlier about policies. And so if I was to walk away from this and say, well, what we should be doing is working on sentencing policies or giving people more education or worrying about drugs in rural areas of America, where do you come down on that?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah.

AUDIENCE: That makes sense?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: It does make sense. Yeah. So I think part of my answer dovetails with my previous one. I think that we’re not looking here at the consequences of incarceration. But if we take incarceration, all else equal, to be something that we would prefer not to occur in the United States, I think you’re asking, how might we achieve both lower levels of incarceration, but also lower disparities in incarceration? So those are the ends you’re–

AUDIENCE: Yes.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: –trying to– OK. So if we wanted to decrease incarceration in the United States and we also wanted to decrease disparities in incarceration, what would we do? I think obviously, many of the solutions lie in the criminal legal system themselves. I think that– I didn’t show you my evidence from urban-rural divides. But I think there’s mixed evidence that some of the criminal legal system policies that have been concentrated in urban areas are having decarceration effects, but also effects that decrease disparities, particularly racial disparities.

But I think the fact that our inequality results are so consistent with a variety of other outcomes like mortality and– especially mortality seem to indicate that what we’re documenting here in terms of incarceration is like an epiphenomenon of deeper inequalities in life chances in the United States. So when we say that imprisonment is increasing among this population, essentially what we’re saying is, the opportunities that this group faces for gainful employment, meaningful engagement in a community are decreasing.

And so I’m quite sympathetic to arguments that many of the solutions here actually lie outside of the criminal legal system. I’m a big supporter of a full employment industrial policy. I think that would have probably the single largest effect in decreasing some of the disparities that we see here. But obviously, that’s expensive and fairly radical. So yeah.

AUDIENCE: Hello. Thank you. William Welsh–

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Hello, William.

AUDIENCE: –PhD student, and Berkeley sociology. Yeah, I was interested in two things. One was the declining contribution of property crime to inequality, I think, among all four groups.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah.

AUDIENCE: And I was wondering if your interpretation of that is that property crime is becoming a more general phenomenon, not limited to one or the other subgroup. And then the other question I had is that while among white voters, no-college voters voted– in 2024 voted for Trump at about half, again, as high a rate as the college-educated counterparts, among Black voters, no college voters voted for Trump three times more likely than their college-educated counterparts. So I’m wondering what connection you might see, if any, between the results that you found and these election– voting results.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: OK. Yeah. Your first question was about property crimes and whether we’re seeing, if I understood you correctly, some convergence in property offending across the different groups. I don’t think we’re seeing that. If you look at the absolute rates, I think those property offenses largely track admissions– offense-specific admission trends for the groups more broadly. So I don’t think I would explain that declining significance as a general convergence in offending.

I have to be careful with my words here, because there’s a big difference between offending and being admitted to a prison for that offense. Yeah, regarding elections, I don’t know. What would you say? What’s the connection you see? I can’t say I’ve honestly thought about it all that carefully. It’s a quite nuanced question. You’re saying essentially that partisan divide– educational partisan divides are actually larger in the Black community than in the White community?

AUDIENCE: Yeah.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. And so you’re asking how that would explain our results or maybe be an effect of our results.

AUDIENCE: I guess I’m asking, how might it be an effect of the–

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: An effect of the results?

AUDIENCE: Voting effect?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah.

AUDIENCE: Basically vote against Democrats [INAUDIBLE].

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. So yeah. So well, it’s important to acknowledge actually that– if I’m remembering correctly, that generally speaking educational inequality in imprisonment rates is larger among white Americans than among Black Americans. But we also know that criminal legal system contact has much greater effects on things like trust in the law for Black Americans than for white Americans.

So I think that’s part of what’s part of what might be going on or a connection point between what we’re talking about and what you’re describing, where the class disparities in incarceration among Black Americans have this outsized effect on the politics of low-college or no-college Black Americans that might contribute to the fact that you see these actually outsized partisan divides among the Black community that aren’t necessarily reflected in the prison admissions statistics.

AUDIENCE: Thank you.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah

AUDIENCE: So you mentioned full employment. I wanted to ask you to flesh out your thoughts on the interaction between your story and labor markets. I mean, that could be anything. It could be over aggregate unemployment or sectoral or regional. But I guess specifically, I wanted to ask about the last few years when we’ve moved towards full employment and we’ve actually had a reduction in economic inequality, how do you think that would affect your story? And I mean, is it too soon to tell or do you already have some sense of what impact that’s having on this kind of inequality?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. So you’ve got me with my back against the wall as regards, say, racial and educational disparities in employment rates over the last 18 months or something. I don’t know those. But look, I think that we need to think very seriously about, I guess, offending, but especially prison admission for different offenses as a function of labor market opportunity.

I think there’s decent evidence– a growing body of evidence that shows that at different levels of geographic specificity, at different levels of demographic specificity, that when folks have more meaningful opportunities for gainful employment, meaningful employment, they’re less likely to end up in circumstances, no worries at all, that might expose them to the carceral system. So I can’t give a responsible answer as regards recent trends, particularly past the scope of our data here. But I do think that for me, it’s a policy area where we should be thinking more and more seriously, more aggressively. Sorry. It’s a bit of a cop out, but–

AUDIENCE: Hi. My name is Taylor. I’m a PhD student over at the law school.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Oh, cool,

AUDIENCE: Would thinking about juvenile justice and maybe changes or rates that’s going on across the story over time and thinking about how that may be impacts educational attainment, does that change the story at all or does it fit into the model?

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah, I think it could change the story. A lot of government statisticians, when they measure educational attainment, often start at age 25. It’s reasonable assumption that our educational attainment process is more or less complete by age 25. We’re analyzing 20 to 39-year-olds here, so there’s a decent number of people whose educational attainment process may not have completed by the time they come into contact with the system. And of course, we know that system contact affects your educational trajectory. You’re, of course, pointing to the juvenile justice system, which we would expect to have an even more significant effect on interrupting educational attainment.

We have stratified our analysis by five-year age band, and we don’t– it doesn’t change our story very meaningfully. So just in terms of what we can show with the prison system data, we’re not terribly concerned about reverse causality here, where prison– our story doesn’t meaningfully change when we think more carefully about the possibility that prison admission is affecting educational attainment and not the other way around. But look, that’s obviously not the case when it comes to juvenile justice. And I’m less well versed in the juvenile justice research than I should be. But I think it’s something we should probably think more carefully about. What is your thinking about how juvenile justice might be shaping this inequality story?

AUDIENCE: I wonder if it would tell a parallel story. Maybe it would, but I don’t know if it might parallel [INAUDIBLE].

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Right. Where we couldn’t, say, use educational attainment as a measure of class because we’re talking about even younger people. But if we were to, say, look at parents’ education and see how things were changing in the juvenile justice system, would we see similar patterns or not? Yeah, that’s a very good question. I’d be willing to bet that we are, but– or we would, but I don’t yet know.

AUDIENCE: Yeah, thanks.

MODERATOR: Alex, this would be the last question.

AUDIENCE: I guess your study didn’t really address social causes to these declines, but I wonder if– it seems to me some social movements like Black Lives Matter or the George Floyd protest might have contributed to some of the declines in drug-related prison admissions.

ALEX ROEHRKASSE: Yeah. Those mostly would have come after the period we’re studying, but not entirely. And I think you see the declining significance of admissions for drug offenses much earlier than some of those events. They’re starting in the early 2000. Why are they declining? Yeah. So OK. So why are so many fewer people going to prison for drug offenses, why this massive drop off?

It’s a good question. I think part of it– well, so it’s a massive drop off for Black Americans, but not for white Americans. So I was talking briefly about successive waves of economic, social-technological change that affected less-advantaged Black Americans in the late 20th century and are now arguably coming to effect less advantaged white Americans to greater degrees.

So part of it might be that the kind of drug epidemics that affected the Black population in the United States have waned, to a degree. And now we see the opioid epidemic, which affects, obviously, all Americans, but particularly lower-education white Americans these days. So part of it might be in sequential drug epidemics that are differentially affecting these different populations.

Part of it may be drug sentencing and enforcement reforms. So we’ve seen big– just look around, big changes in the enforcement of marijuana law, for example, that’s really affected less educated Black Americans who used to go to prison for marijuana use and no longer do. I cite those as the two major contributing factors, but they’re probably not the only ones. Thank you so much for your time and attention. I really appreciate it.

MODERATOR: Thank you so much–

[MUSIC PLAYING]

 

Matrix On Point

Mainstreaming Psychedelics

Psychedelics are steadily moving from the fringes of counterculture to the heart of mainstream society, driven by a growing body of research and shifting public perception. Once relegated to underground movements, substances like psilocybin, LSD, and MDMA are now being explored for their potential in treating mental health conditions such as depression, PTSD, and anxiety. High-profile studies at institutions like Johns Hopkins and Stanford have highlighted their therapeutic benefits, while cities like Denver and Oakland have decriminalized their use. In addition, psychedelic retreats, wellness practices, and even art and tech industries are embracing these substances as tools for creativity, self-discovery, and healing. As psychedelics shed their stigma, they are catalyzing a broader conversation about mental health, spirituality, and the boundaries of human consciousness.

Recorded on March 6, 2025, this panel featured Diana Negrin, Lecturer of Geography at UC Berkeley; David Presti, Professor of Neuroscience at UC Berkeley; Charles Hirschkind, Professor of Anthropology at UC Berkeley; and Graham Pechenik, a patent attorney and founder of Calyx Law. Poulomi Saha, Associate Professor of English and Co-director of the Program in Critical Theory at UC Berkeley, moderated.

Matrix On Point is a discussion series promoting focused, cross-disciplinary conversations on today’s most pressing issues. Offering opportunities for scholarly exchange and interaction, each Matrix On Point features the perspectives of leading scholars and specialists from different disciplines, followed by an open conversation. These thought-provoking events are free and open to the public.

This event was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Department of Geography, the Program in Critical TheoryCenter for Interdisciplinary Critical Inquiry, the Center for Research on Social Change, the UC Berkeley Department of English, and the UC Berkeley Center for the Science of Psychedelics.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to this panel as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING]

CORI HAYDEN: Thank you so much for coming. Usually we say, sometimes, X, such and such speaker needs no introduction. Well, clearly, the topic needs no introduction. I’m delighted to see such a crowd here. So my name is Cori Hayden. I’m delighted to welcome you here to the Matrix. I’m the interim director this semester.

I think it’s clear that the resurgence of psychedelics has completely transformed how we are thinking about all manner of things, from mental health to spirituality to the boundaries of human consciousness. And I am delighted to welcome this extraordinary panel of colleagues, scholars, practitioners with expertise in biology, anthropology, law, critical theory, neuroscience to guide us through this discussion.

Now, today’s event is co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Center for Interdisciplinary Critical Inquiry, the Center for Research on Social Change, the Center for the Science of Psychedelics, the Program in Critical Theory, and the Departments of Geography and English. And I also want to make sure to thank the Social Science Matrix’s extraordinary staff, Chuck Kapelke, Eva Seto, and Sarah Harrington. Thank you all.

So before I turn it over to the panelists, I want to briefly mention a few upcoming events here at the Social Science Matrix in this space. We have an Author Meets Critics Panel on Monday, March 17th, on Colonizing Palestine with Areej Sabbagh-Khoury. March 18th, a panel on the New Contours of Mass Incarceration.

Projects on computational analyzes. An Author Meets Critics on Native Lands with Shari Huhndorf. So anyway, please go to the website and take note of these things, and we hope to see you in this room again very soon.

Let me just briefly now– and welcome, Graham– introduce our moderator, Poulomi Saha. So Poulomi Saha is Associate Professor of English and Co-director of the Program in Critical Theory at UC Berkeley. Professor Saha works at the intersection of American Studies, psychoanalytic critique, feminist and queer theory, postcolonial studies.

And as a Flourish Fellow at the UC Berkeley Center for the Science of Psychedelics, they explore the intersections of mysticism, psychedelics, and critical theory from spiritual, psychoanalytic, and sociological perspectives. Also, might possibly be finishing a book on cults, so I heard, possibly could be true. Without further ado, let me turn it over to the panel to Poulomi, and thank you all for being here. I’m really excited.

POULOMI SAHA: Oh, I don’t have to get up, ha. Hi, everyone. I didn’t realize I was mic’d up. I’m Poulomi Saha. I’m really delighted to be moderating this afternoon’s event, which is called mainstreaming psychedelics. And we have a really extraordinary panel, and I don’t want to take up more time than is my due.

But I will say that, actually, three of us on this panel are Flourish Fellows this year. The Flourish Fellowship is an initiative that was launched by the Berkeley Center for the Study of Psychedelics in collaboration with [? CC ?] and Harvard University. And this year was the first year for the Psychedelics in Society and Culture Fellowship, which Diana, Charles, and I all received fellowships.

And there is another fellowship round coming up if you are interested, March 16th. Information is available on the website. I highly recommend you check it out. It has funded some really exciting initiatives and projects on campus this year and is sure to do so next year, including some of the work that we’re going to hear today.

Normally, I would spend much more time on introductions, but I’m told that time is short, so forgive me for giving short shrift to the extraordinary bios of our presenters. But I will very briefly introduce them and then hand it over.

Our first presenter is Diana Negrin, who is a lecturer in Geography at UC Berkeley. In addition to her research interests in identity, space, and social movements in Latin America and the United States, her current project seeks to document the impact of global theogen commodification on sacred Indigenous lands caused by agroindustrial expansion and peyote tourism, focusing on the preservation of Indigenous rights and the defense of ancestral lands against extractive practices.

Our second presenter, David Presti, is Professor of Neuroscience here at UC Berkeley. His areas of interest are human neurobiology and neurochemistry, the effects of drugs on the brain and mind, clinical treatments of addiction, and an evolving conversation between cognitive science with this philosophy, and the scientific study of the mind and consciousness.

He is the author of several books, but most recently, The Mind Beyond Brain– Buddhism, Science, and the Paranormal, and a public education course that I’d love to hear more about called Psychedelics and the Mind.

Then we have Charles Hirschkind, Professor of Anthropology here at UC Berkeley. His interests include religious practice, media technologies, and emergent forms of political community in the Middle East and Europe.

He is the author of two books, his most recent book released just a few years ago, entitled The Feeling of History– Islam, Romanticism, and Andalusia, and has a current project that I hope we’re going to hear about on psychedelics transnationally, but including in Israel.

And our final panelist is Graham Pechenik, who is a patent attorney and founder of Calyx law, a law firm, and I believe the only law firm in America, perhaps, specializing in cannabis and psychedelics-related intellectual property, especially as it relates to drug discovery and development.

He’s also the editor-at-large of Psychedelic Alpha, where he writes about psychedelics intellectual property and provides data for patent trackers, and maintains a psychedelic law and policy tracker with the UC Berkeley Center for the Science of Psychedelics.

It’s an extraordinary panel, and I will not take up any more time. I’m going to hand it over now first to Diana.

DIANA NEGRIN: Thank you so much, Poulomi. And thank you so much to the whole Social Science Matrix network, and I definitely have to say, Ambrosia Shapiro from the Geography Department for also helping network this in. My name is Diana. And also I want to add, I teach in the Ethnic Studies Department, so just a couple stories below us.

So I’m going to try to condense, in 15 minutes, what has really been a body of work that I’ve been researching for quite some years now, but it’s also part of my own biography in many ways, and so I’ll speak about that in a minute.

But I’m going to start with a little trip to a place called Las Margaritas. It’s an ejido. It’s communally-held land in the high plateaus of San Luis Potosi. One of the most beautiful places I have seen. It’s like a semi-desert in the sky, one could say.

And it’s a place that has been the site of pilgrimage for the Wixarika and many other Indigenous peoples of the Utah Nahuatl linguistic groups since time immemorial, but also since The Conquest, it’s become a very important site of pilgrimage for those Catholics that follow Saint Francis’s patron saint ethic, which is actually one that’s also tied to ecology.

However, there’s been a third pilgrimage, let’s say, they like to call themselves pilgrims, which has really begun since the 1960s, but taken off a lot more in the last 20 years or so, which is the new age pilgrims, the psychonauts. And Las Margaritas, Wirikuta, the way the land is called in Wixarika, has become one of many nodal points of these travels that psychonauts take. And there’s a transnational group, but many of them are Latin American.

And since 2010, I’ve been focusing a lot on the different communities of people who have been attracted to this land because of peyote, but in many ways have also participated, in one way or another with its– the land use change that’s happening. So in the summer of 2023, I went to Las Margaritas, and I found a new small retreat that had just been built since the previous year that I had been.

And this new retreat had been erected in a random plot of land, in the ejido, which is communally-held land, it’s not supposed to be bought and sold under law, and unlike the other houses in the community– there are houses. It’s a very small community. They’re all adobe houses. They’re very traditional. They’re all small farmers. This particular construction was made from materials that one would find at Home Depot, bricks and metal, principally, rather than adobe and wood.

All of the rooms were filled with bunk beds, and outside the structure, there was a small chapel that was being built with a Virgin of Guadalupe image and a cross at the top of the little steeple. And outside of there was the remnants of a sweat lodge, of a temazcal. The owner of this new construction– very modest, one wouldn’t think much of it if you were just walking, but I noticed it because it was new.

The owner is a Colombian psychonaut, a psychonaut, a traveler, a psychedelics traveler, who has a lot of relationships with people in the philanthropic circles of the north. He’s a Colombian individual who had already started retreats in other parts of Latin America.

And I spoke to the caretaker because the individual himself wasn’t there, and the caretaker told me that just a couple of weeks prior to me being there, there had been about 30 people lodging at this place, and they had gone and harvested great quantities of peyote, laid them out, dried them, ground them up, and took it with them.

Now that is, under law, illegal. Nobody is supposed to harvest peyote if you are not part of a tribe that is recognized as having practiced this harvesting since time immemorial. Furthermore, you’re not supposed to take peyote outside, much less of this region.

So what I think is so important is that, since 2003, I’ve been doing a lot of research with Wixarika struggles for autonomy, for sovereignty, land, defense. My first book looked at the activism of Wixarika university students and the way they were affirming their rights as citizens to Mexico. But at the tail end of that research, these mining concessions were declared, these transnational mining concessions owned by a Canadian company.

And that brought about a lot of attention towards Wirikuta. And many of the activists that were part of this network were people who had been attracted because of peyote. So my postdoc actually started to look at interviewing many of these individuals, who were largely of European descent, but Latin American, and all of my interviews started with the same point of departure, which was peyote, right?

They had encountered peyote prior to encountering Wirikuta, prior to encountering Wixarika culture, and it was from these transformative experiences that they wanted to now be a part of this transnational activist circle. And what we started to notice was that much of the attention was focused around Wirikuta, peyote, and the Wixarika, and the small farmers were largely foreclosed. They were erased from this picture.

And so, since 2010, in particular, I’ve been doing a lot of research in this area. And what I’ve been noticing more and more is that now it’s not just about the mining concessions, it’s also about large agroindustrial plots of land, mostly tomato for export. When we see dry farm tomatoes, that’s actually one of the indicators is that they might be coming from a place like Sonora or San Luis Potosi that’s semi-arid. Most of these are for export.

And then the third big land use change that I’ve noticed in particular in the last 10 years is the purchase of a [? helo ?] land in the name of land back, in the name of the Wixarika, without it being any Wixarika individuals.

Following Instagram, which has been a great source of netnography, I’ve come across, at least, a dozen initiatives, mostly led by either people from the United States, or maybe a Latin American that’s not actually connected to either San Luis Potosi or Jalisco that do events. Some events have actually happened at places like Yale and Harvard to raise funds to buy land to protect the peyote and to protect Wixarika sovereignty.

So my work started with mining in this typical political ecology, and I never would have guessed that suddenly I’d be looking at the question of psychedelics. And I think that Michael Pollan’s Netflix special is a really important reference for a lot of people, maybe, in terms of the question of mescaline and peyote.

There’s a small little bleep that’s given to the question of Wirikuta and to the Wixarika people. But it’s important to note that the same people that were intermediaries for Michael Pollan’s Netflix special are the same people who are intermediaries for these land purchases. And so I’ve been really trying to track, who are these individuals? Trying to follow the money.

Many of these individuals, again, Don Moore was one of my PhD professors, and I’ll never forget Donald Moore saying, good intentions can have bad consequences. Good-intentioned people that met at Burning Man might not understand land tenure practices in Mexico, Colombia, and Peru. They may not understand that the concept of a land bank operates differently in the United States than it does in Mexico because of colonial and post-colonial structures. Again, of land tenancy, of legal recognition of Indigenous people.

So I don’t have much more time, probably, but I do want to say that a lot of what I’ve been observing is a loss of translation, right? Not only linguistically, where we have much of what’s happening in the mainstream of psychedelics happening in English. If you look at any retreat website, if you look at any of these philanthropic initiatives, they’re in English for an English-speaking audience.

And it’s only a few– for example, in the case of the Wixarika communities, there’s only a couple individuals that are actually connected to these philanthropic initiatives. But the way that they get presented in both conferences, everywhere from maps to, again, a university like Harvard is that they are representatives.

And this is an age-old problem with misrepresenting Indigenous leadership and autonomy. It’s very easy to do that when you are talking to a group of people who don’t understand who it is that they’re seeing, what the context is.

So what we’ve continued to see, not only with respect to land purchases, is that the mainstreaming of psychedelics has also started to really disrupt governance in Indigenous communities that are connected to these psychedelic plants and psychedelic traditions, if you want to use that term. So in the case of the Wixarika, peyote has always made them very hyper visible, right? From Carlos Castaneda to, again, the present Netflix example.

And I’m starting to really see a combination of, not just usurpation of leadership, but also of land tenure. And while the Wixarika have always claimed that the way to defend land is to coordinate with the small farmers, what is happening with these very powerful players that have millions of dollars at their disposal, literally, is that you have a lot of backdoor deals that are happening.

And so the result has been a lot of infighting, a lot of community animosity. And I’m quite concerned, given the landscape that we’re seeing right now, with– again, there was the constellation of Silicon Valley forces that are also interested in psychedelics, that we have very much an authoritarian view of how to manage land that is connected to endemic species like peyote.

And there’s very little time and space given to really understanding other epistemic approaches how to defend land. And that peyote is not exclusive to one particular community, but that we have ancestral communities that need to be, not just selectively at the table, but really need to be understood in a much deeper way.

And I’m afraid that a lot of intermediary work has continued to really disrupt Indigenous sovereignty. So that’s really the focus of my work right now. And hopefully soon I’ll have a film and a new book project to bring to people about this very issue. So thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

POULOMI SAHA: Next up is David Presti.

DAVID PRESTI: Wow, that was great. Yeah. Thank you, everyone, for being here. And you all who organized these Matrix events for pulling this together. This is really wonderful. Very important topic these days.

It’s interesting that we often talk about how we live in a bubble here in Berkeley or maybe even California or the West Coast or something like that. With respect to the mainstreaming of psychedelics, there’s still a way in which that’s very accurate.

Because if I talk with people in the middle of the United States who are not part of the academic establishment or something like that, this is not something that they’ve heard much about. So it’s just an interesting kind of contrast that we continue to appreciate and live in.

So I’m assuming that most of you know quite a bit already about psychedelics, what we call psychedelic. And really, they entered– really only entered the first time in the popular culture in America in the 1950s, even though there’s been, of course, a centuries- or probably millennia-, in many cases, long history of use of psychedelic materials by a number of Indigenous cultures around the world for a long time.

This was largely unknown, except for folks who studied it, anthropologists, folks like yourself, who actually knew this really intimately. And then it hit the more popular culture in the ’50s. The psychiatrist Osmond coined that word psychedelic, meaning mind-manifesting.

Because he thought these materials, which were represented only by two chemicals in those days, mescaline from peyote, and LSD, which was the synthetic that was discovered, whose properties were discovered in the 1940s, he felt that these materials and a number of other things from which chemicals hadn’t been identified like the Teonanacatl mushrooms from Mexico, Datura, cannabis, even the active components were not known–

He put all those into that category of psychedelic because he felt they should be– that psychiatry could come up with some good ways to utilize these powerful materials to open up one’s mentality in some way and make it more amenable for psychotherapy and for transformative change.

So in the 1950s, through popular essays like Aldous Huxley’s books and Gordon and Valentina Wasson’s articles in major media outlets, people became knowledgeable about something about these materials and their history. And then it really all opened up in the 1960s, of course, and psychedelics, especially LSD, became a huge part of the revolutionary processes that were happening back in those days.

And all of these things that happened in the 1960s that were really building up a lot of momentum, things like the Free Speech Movement right here on– just a few hundred feet away on the UC Berkeley campus, and the Civil Rights Movement, and Women’s Rights Movements, and gay rights movements, and very importantly, the anti-war in Southeast Asia movement, these were all melded together in people’s minds as just these, in some ways, chaotic things that were disrupting the status quo.

And psychedelics as well as cannabis got thrown into that category as well, and at the end of the ’60s, in 1970, everything was made illegal. So with the Controlled Substance Act in the United States, with the United Nations International Convention the next year, psychedelics, all the known psychedelic molecules at that point were declared illegal and whatever academic and clinical research had been going on in the ’50s and ’60s all came to a halt in the nonmainstream ways. I mean, not that they were ever mainstream, but they were a huge part of the culture.

And, however, there was a psychedelic underground that continued unabated from the time that they become illegal, in the late ’60s, California was the very first state to pass a law against LSD in 1966– and the underground, though, which was this constellation of folks that would take LSD at concerts, later MDMA and other things at raves, and artists, musicians, folks looking for some kind of recreational novelty.

And then a more reverent ceremonial component to that underground. Folks that held a more sacred relationship with the materials, they– often it was embedded in some kind of ceremonial structure for them. They usually knew quite a bit about what they were doing, and did it with respect and planning and so forth.

And there was an element of also underground psychedelic-assisted therapy, so-called, guides or therapists that would utilize LSD or psilocybin or MDMA when it was appreciated as materials to guide folks through a therapeutic or transformative process.

And this was all underground, in some cases, very deeply underground, especially the therapists, because there were draconian laws against all of these materials. And throughout the ’70s and ’80s and ’90s and even into the 2000s, there were many people who were arrested for distributing or manufacturing and so forth. Long prison sentences were handed out to young folks at Grateful Dead concerts for distributing LSD in the parking lot.

So it behooved people, especially who were doing this as their livelihood, like the underground therapeutic community, to stay very quiet about what they were doing. And it was taken very seriously as a profession. People often spent years and years apprenticing with other more knowledgeable people.

They knew the medicines, the materials they were working with really, really well themselves through their own experiences. So it was a pretty reliable kind of way to get introduced to the transformative properties of these things should you happen to have the right connections to meet someone like that since they were hard to find.

So this puttered on for several decades, the ’70s, the ’80s. By the mid to later ’80s, there began to be developed some activism around bringing these materials back into the public sphere to make them available for recreational uses, nonmedical use, as well as clinically administered use.

And most notably, the MAPS, the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies was started in 1986 with the explicit agenda of bringing MDMA, methylenedioxymethamphetamine, also known as ecstasy, back into the place where it could be legally used as a therapeutic tool.

But the bigger agenda was these materials should be legal for everyone, not just in the therapeutic context, but that doesn’t work to say that publicly. You have to go through the steps of getting government sanctioning through the FDA and all of that. So it was a wild vision to be able to do that at the end of the– I mean, to think that could be possible in 1986 because the laws were so draconian and so rigid, it seemed, with respect to all of these things.

But by the 1990s, by 1990, the first human studies, again, had started with a psychedelic, that was dimethyltryptamine, DMT. And then MDMA and psilocybin followed through the ’90s clinical studies. Quiet, low key. The media hadn’t noticed yet. The art of developing the finely-honed press release had not been developed yet.

So it continued on, though. Progress was being made. The FDA approved things to go on to the next phase of clinical trials, phase II, and so forth. And so by the 2000s, by the early 2000s, although the underground was still very active in all the ways that it had always been, there was beginning to be some above-ground approved activity, again, specifically FDA-approved clinical studies with MDMA for post-traumatic stress disorder and psilocybin for anxiety and depression, later, just the focus on depression.

And this continued to be successful. It was a slow process. There were only a handful of people doing this work. But in the early 2000s, psychedelic centers actually started at two major universities, Johns Hopkins and at University College London, so there are now beginning to be academic credibility, and papers were beginning to be published in mainstream journals.

And importantly, graduate students and postdocs were beginning to be trained because it’s not sustainable if there are only five people in the world doing clinical or basic science in psychedelics. But now there’s beginning to be a new cohort of folks who will be trained up to do this.

Of course, all these folks are now out there in the academic sector with projects of their own. And so now there are hundreds of universities that have psychedelic research going on. There are dozens and dozens and dozens of universities that have official psychedelic centers like our own here at Berkeley. And so it really has achieved, in the academic center, something of a mainstream status.

So this was already happening in the 2000– the first decade and then the second decade of the 2000s. By the end of the– and then I mentioned the press release earlier. The other thing that happened is that all of these early studies, when they were published, they had really good press releases. They had really good press coverage, so they got a lot of positive media attention. So the media juggernaut was beginning to take off.

And, of course, by the latter part of the 2000 and teens, then we have Michael Pollan’s excellent book, best-selling book that came out, the Netflix series, so more and more attention to more and more people to these substances. So here we are at the stage where we are in this trajectory.

The other thing that happened by the end of the 2000 and teens was that this was looking like a pretty good investment to a lot of people. So then startups formed to try to, in some way, capture. Now, remember, psychedelic molecules, LSD, psilocybin, MDMA, DMT, I mean, they’ve been out there in the public sphere for a long time, decades. The therapeutic procedures had been out there for a long time, for decades. So how are they going to make money off this?

So then– I’m sure you’ll speak to this– all kinds of schemes are concocted to try to grab intellectual property. Well, maybe if we tweak the crystal structure of the molecule in some way, then we can patent that. And it doesn’t matter whether that’s actually meaningful. As the CEO of that company said in a recorded interview, it doesn’t matter what I think. It only matters what the US Patent Office and the UK Patent Office thinks.

And so a number of things are now in the sector moving along. And so we have billions of dollars or certainly hundreds of millions, probably billions of dollars invested, certainly billions if you count ketamine, which I’m not even going to have time to get to, but we can come back to it in the Q&A.

And we have training programs, which have turned out thousands, now, of people that were being trained to participate in clinical studies and so forth. And, however, that’s all on hold because of the FDA’s unwillingness to improve MDMA for clinical studies. So in any case, it’s going to be, it has been, and will continue to be a wild ride, unpredictably wild ride. These are complex materials. Nobody ever said this was going to be easy or predictable, so to be continued. Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

POULOMI SAHA: Thank you, David. And potentially setting us up for a pitch debate during the Q&A. But before we get there, up next is Charles Hirschkind.

CHARLES HIRSCHKIND: OK. First, a big thanks to Poulomi for the invitation to join this panel, and to my illustrious colleague, Cori, Director of the Matrix and good friend.

So I am new to this field. And, really, it’s only been in the last year and a half that I’ve put my foot into it. And that’s centered around a project that explores embodied practice in relation to different traditions involving psychedelic use.

So that doesn’t have a lot to do with mainstreaming. I’ve been working with a couple of colleagues at the Chacruna Center in Berkeley, who work on ayahuasca, and particularly in the context of Santo Daime, a Brazilian tradition.

So the question of the mainstreaming of psychedelics is, in ways, new to me. Of course, overall, the field I find to be exciting and with plenty of room for optimism, but, of course, also room for concern and worry. So today I’m going to focus my discussion on the mainstream of psychedelics and explore it from one particular national standpoint, that from the experience of Israel.

And the psychedelic phenomenon is well-established in Israel in terms of research, in terms of therapeutic practice, in terms of recreational use. The country has been an early and important contributor to studies in medical uses of psychedelics. There are numerous research initiatives, clinical trials, important conferences, workshops.

It’s one of the few countries outside the US where MAPS has an institution. Israel was the first national government to financially support MDMA-assisted psychotherapy research. It was also the first country to improve a compassionate use program, the use of MDMA in actual therapeutic practice.

Much of the research on the therapeutic use of psychedelics in Israel is focused on trauma victims, and particularly those suffering PTSD. Let me read briefly from a MAPS press release from 2020 on psychedelic research in Israel. So the report states that preliminary research has shown that MDMA-assisted psychotherapy may be a profound way to help those who suffer greatly from traumatic experiences, such as war or sexual assault.

Now, according to Keren Tzarfaty, the Clinical Investigator and Director of Israeli projects in collaborations with MAPS, in the face of the perpetual violence in Israel and the surrounding region, the innovative, heart-based treatment can transform suffering to wholeness. The article goes on, over 10% of the Israeli population experiences PTSD, and this figure increases significantly in regions frequented by rocket attacks. Military service is compulsory, and most families in Israel have histories of trauma and persecution.

The Israeli Ministry of Health is constantly looking for new tools to get better results in psychological and psychiatric treatment, says the Director of Psychological Trauma for the Israeli Ministry of Health. After seeing the very promising results of the completed MDMA-assisted psychotherapy research in Israel, we now believe that it is crucial to allow more citizens who suffer from PTSD to have access to this new treatment. This was back in 2020, and there’s only been growing momentum in this field in Israel since then.

In a talk that Rick Doblin, the founder of MAPS back in the ’80s, as David mentioned, a talk he gave at Google in 2009, he presented in a slide an image that, in his words, was the best image we have ever seen about MDMA for psychotherapy. This image, which was taken from an Israeli newspaper, showed a soldier largely submerged in a pool of blood, with helicopters in the background, and clinging for life onto a life preserver in the form of an MDMA tablet.

And this was, as Doblin suggested, the best image he had for what he imagined to be, we might consider it the mainstreaming of MDMA within psychotherapy. An article from Wired titled, “Israel is at the vanguard of a new psychedelic revolution,” the authors survey the explosion of new startups and companies entering the psychedelic field, affirming that Israeli startups are proving to be the pioneers in the use of mind-altering drugs, from mushroom to medical grade cannabis, to treat conditions like depression and PTSD.

So besides the medical clinical field, the genealogy of psychedelic use in Israel has another important element. Since, at least, the early 1980s, young Israeli tourists, many of them just released from IDF service, have traveled to India, particularly to Goa, but as well to other parts of India, giving shape to a distinct psychedelic-fueled party culture, party beach culture in many places.

By the 1990s, sigh party or rave culture was becoming well-embedded within Israel itself. And today, Israel is celebrated as a global center for rave culture. So these are a few snippets from the development of psychedelic use in Israel.

My point in mentioning them is to just suggest that Israel is a major contributor to and participant in the psychedelic renaissance. That the psychedelic culture, both medical and recreational and nonmedical being developed there, therefore has considerable impact on the global stage, and their considerable impact, perhaps, on the direction in which the future of mainstreaming psychedelics may take.

So, as the Executive Director of MAPS that I cited above noted, there is perpetual violence in Israel. Service in the IDF is mandatory, with some exceptions, which means that most of its citizens participate directly in the brutalization and violence that has been directed routinely against Palestinians for many decades, and now in the genocide of the last year and a half.

This is not easy for any human being, and I believe it is not at all surprising that one finds such high rates of PTSD in the country. When one participates, in my view, in extreme violence, including the type of atrocities we’ve seen more recently, there are psychic costs.

Often when the violence ends, when there’s a pause, there’s a sense that one eventually, in some form, will confront the acts that one has done. The psyche tries to defend against this, tries to avoid it in ways, sometimes through an intensification of violence. This has been documented in other global contexts.

So I set this stage because this is the context in which psychedelic use and interest has grown medically, therapeutically, and recreationally in Israel. We often think of psychedelics as offering a kind of mirror by which we can explore deeper dimensions of our consciousness and experience.

But here we see something that follows something of an opposite logic. Instead of allowing a patient, a soldier, or a citizen to confront the traumatic violence that they have had to exercise, in this case against Palestinians, psychedelics becomes a tool by which one can avoid or defer such a confrontation, and thus be ready to return to the battlefield. It is for this reason that the Israeli state finds this research on psychedelics so important. And the Israeli state is a major contributor, major funder of research in this area.

So insomuch as the Israeli state necessitates the will for participation of much of its population in the ongoing perpetration of violence in order to sustain the particular form of apartheid rule, it cannot afford to tolerate the psychic repercussions, the trauma that such violence produces among its people, and must seek out methods to limit those repercussions. It is for this reason that psychedelic therapy is seen to have such great promise in the country, and as I mentioned, receives considerable support from the state.

Nowhere, at least, in my exploration of the literature, which I acknowledge is limited, nowhere in the literature on psychedelic research in Israel have I encountered the suggestion that the state policies that produce a condition, a necessity of perpetual violence, and hence of traumatic experience be changed.

The violence is viewed rather as a natural feature of the landscape, as in the quotes that I cited above, a result, sometimes, of the savagery of Israel’s neighbors, a context where Israelis themselves can understand themselves as victims, ones whose suffering may be alleviated by psychedelics.

So I’m going to stop there. But my overall point is to suggest that Israel is an important reference in reflecting on the possible direction that a mainstreaming of psychedelics takes. Not only because the phenomenon is well-developed there, but also because of the influence that Israel exerts in shaping a global psychedelic culture. So this is a cautionary note.

POULOMI SAHA: Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

And our final presenter is Graham Pechenik.

GRAHAM PECHENIK: Thank you. And I think this might be a giveaway that I’m the one nonprofessor on the panel that I need the support of slides to get through my talk, so.

So I’ll probably pick up actually where David Presti left off. Because where I start is in 2018, really, at the start of what people have been speaking about as a psychedelic renaissance. Well, my story maybe goes back a little bit earlier to part of David’s story, which was the research and the growth in the number of academic centers and just academics studying psychedelics.

Actually, my interest in psychedelics dates back to my first psychedelic experience in undergrad, and I thought at one point that I might become a psychedelic chemist. I was very inspired by the work of Sasha Shulgin, who created a lot of novel psychedelics and helped to bring MDMA back into the popular consciousness.

I had no encouragement of that. Maybe it was just a few years too early because now, certainly, there’s many people who are making that their work. Although I’m happy to have ended up back in the space. So I went to law school thinking maybe I’d do drug policy with my science background. I ended up going to do patent law.

And I continued to follow the science, and I’m actually at– I was at a MAPS info table volunteering the weekend after this article came out. So this article was really the first time, I think, patents, certainly that I had heard of, but even in general, were written about for the popular culture.

So this was before Compass Pathways, actually, their patent had published, but it was– it was known that they had filed patents on psilocybin, and an article about the work that Compass Pathways was doing came out talking about the patent. And I was very curious about it.

And in talking to people at MAPS who were themselves very interested in how somebody might even patent something like psilocybin, which, obviously, is a known compound and a compound that’s been synthesized and already patented in the ’50s by Albert Hofmann, I actually went home that night and made a table of all the psilocybin patents I could find. And I’m not sure– oh, that works. Just yell it out.

And so in 2018, after this article came out, there were just over a dozen. A couple of them were actually the original ones from Albert Hoffman. A few of them are from Paul Stamets, who many people might know has been working with psilocybin for quite a long time. So there really weren’t very many. This was still– again, as I mentioned before, Compass’s hadn’t come out.

Two years later, so on the next slide, there still had really only been less than even double that. Not even two dozen patents on– this is on psilocybin. These are just patents that have psilocybin in the word in the patent anywhere.

Today that list is– on the next slide, this slide probably took me the longest. I probably didn’t need to copy-paste every single part of it. But this is the number of patents on psychedelics today, over 2,000. So I’m fortunate to be able to work with BCSP on making this public. So this is a resource that’s on BCSP’s web page. And you can see and sort all the patents that are covering all sorts of psychedelic compounds.

The next slide is just an image to show, people might know, if you’re familiar with patents, they’re not public for 18 months. So 18 months from now, you may see the ones that were filed 18 months ago. So we only know the ones that have already published that have already been filed that long ago.

So on the next slide, the reason for all this activity, I think, is you already heard a little bit of suggestion from David is, in 2020, there were– start of companies in the space. There were not all that many yet, but there were quite a few who are looking at trying to figure out ways to commercialize psychedelic compounds.

A couple of years later, then that– on the next slide, you can see, well, this is now today, there are many, many dozens of companies who are looking to commercialize, in some way, psychedelics. Now, most of these companies are looking to bring some sort of psychedelic compound through FDA.

Many of them are looking to bring this same psychedelic compound through the FDA, competing to do the same thing. There’s a question mark on there because there’s many that are still in stealth and probably a question mark, too, because many of these have run out of funding, so. But there are really a lot.

Although putting this in context, on the next slide, the small circle with the other small circles in the middle is the whole scale of the psychedelic space, which is just a few million dollars– a few billion dollars in market cap. I mean, really dwarfed by– these are the three largest pharma companies by market cap.

And the three that are listed there in the middle, the psychedelics companies, I mean, a thousand times smaller than the biggest pharmaceutical companies. Probably the size– maybe not even the size of a single program within one of these pharmaceutical companies. Eli Lilly could basically buy every single company in the psychedelic space and wouldn’t make much of a difference to their accounts.

So at the time that all this has been going on, I think maybe we already heard a little bit of suggestion, some of these patents have been a little bit controversial. And indeed, from the next slide, we can see– this is just what I could fit on one slide– there have been dozens, if not more, articles written on the ethics of patenting psychedelics, what it means to patent psychedelics, how can people patent psychedelics?

So there has been a lot of conversation around it. Actually, on the next slide, the conversation has leapt even into the popular consciousness. So people might have seen this, perhaps. This was a couple of years ago from John Oliver, of course, talking about what was one of the most controversial patents in the space when it published.

It was another one of Compass’s patents, not that original one, but one that had claims to psilocybin treatment with a variety of things that people, certainly in the underground, would have known about. The fact that a person was laying on a bed or a couch, or wearing an eyeshade, or maybe wanted soft music playing in the room.

So John Oliver, on the next slide here shown, this was so obvious it would have been like patenting somebody sitting in a suit behind a desk telling jokes. Which if one filed for it, maybe it is patentable, although I haven’t seen one just like that.

So from the next slide, you can see the controversies over psychedelic patents aren’t entirely new. Actually, in the 1980s there was a fairly large controversy that actually caused some diplomatic rifts between the US and some Central and South American countries. I think the diplomats in Ecuador threatened to close their mission at one point.

This was called– so this was, I guess– for the context, this was a patent on– a plant patent on a type of ayahuasca vine. It was called an offense against Indigenous peoples. One said it was as outrageous as trying to patent a communion wafer. On the next slide, I was curious about that, too, I looked it up. There’s actually over 50 patents on communion wafers.

[LAUGHTER]

So if you’re eating a low-gluten communion wafer during the Holy Communion, you might actually be infringing some of these patents. I think that one is still active. So I guess patent lawyers really don’t have any shame when it comes to taking on clients and doing work. It doesn’t matter if it’s for ceremonial or sacred use.

So the next slide here, I can probably jump through some of this stuff pretty quickly. I think most people probably are familiar with why we even have patents to begin with. I think the pharmaceutical space is probably the most paradigmatic for what patents stand for, which is the reward of the patent people claim is necessary for people to make the investment in coming up with a new pharmaceutical drug.

And the reason for that, of course, is the patent provides the exclusivity that keeps others from being able to copy it and make it themselves. And if one were to be able to copy it, as the next slides show, you can probably just go through both quickly, the line is where the generic enters the market. So sales go down.

And then on the next slide, you can see that the price of the original nongeneric, the branded drug, drops pretty quickly to a small fraction of what it was. So the exclusivity of a patent is the thing that provides the outsized revenues for pharmaceutical companies, and that’s what gives them the interest, arguably, in bringing a new drug to market to begin with.

So from that perspective, this is a good thing for society. But then, of course, one can argue that the cost of those drugs to patients and the length of time that those drugs remain at that cost, depending on how long those patent terms last, something you have to weigh against the value of new drugs.

So going to the next slide. Yes, so those are patents. So patents, obviously, then play this important role. So I’ll go through these pretty quickly. If you go to the next slide, this is just what a patent is. As I mentioned, it’s right to exclude for a particular period of time. It’s defined by the claims.

The next slide shows the actual– this is the Compass patent when it did publish. So a patent itself is like a physical document. It has what’s called a specification, describes the invention, and then the claims. And the claims are really the legal words of meaning. People sometimes say the metes and bounds of the invention. They’re the property boundaries of real property. So this is Compass’s patent on crystalline psilocybin form Polymorph A.

And so for the next slide, thank you. So, again, the reason we have patents, of course, is to incentivize this type of work. So this is the first article in the Constitution. It’s called the progress clause, to promote the progress of science and useful arts.

So the next slide. And then so, of course, the patent stands as this reward or inducement for that knowledge to bring that new drug to market or those new psychedelic compounds to market.

So we go to the next slide. I think this is maybe just to put it in historical context. This isn’t a new thing. As far back as ancient Sybaris. Maybe people have heard of Sybarites or something Sybaritic. Sybaris was known for the outlandish luxury that people in town there had.

And part of the reason, some argue, actually, is because Sybaris had what was sort of like a patent system. They gave people who came to town and demonstrated that they had some peculiar and excellent culinary dish, or any new refinement in luxury, they gave them all the profits from the sales of those for one year, exclusive right to sell those. And that attracted lots of people to the town with their new dishes and new luxuries. So this is the goal of a patent is something that has been understood through history.

So go the next slide. Yeah. So when we think about the patent, we think about it as this balance. So what is it that we’re giving? We’re giving this monopoly. We’re taking something away from the public. Arguably, we’re taking away the ability to have cheaper drugs in the pharmaceutical context, but we’re allowing, in theory, more drugs and better drugs to actually come to market.

So the next slide. And this I like to highlight because I think a lot of people, rightly, see the patent system as really shrouded in two very difficult technical hazes. One of which is the legal haze of– I mean, the patent system is pretty complicated, one is the technical haze of what gets patented itself.

But I think it’s important to point out that, like, patents don’t just exist because it’s just like a natural right, and that’s what it is, but it exists because it is this outcome of what is arguably a democratic process, but not that many people participate in it. But I think it’s worth calling out because there are a lot of ways, if we understand the way the patent system works, to actually get involved and to try to make changes to it.

And now probably is a good time to think about that in particular because with the change in administration and the change in some of the priorities of the administration, what is going on with the patent system is a bit up for grabs. But typically, it tends to be just big pharma who’s sitting at the table and making a lot of these rules.

So next slide. And yeah, so some of the basic requirements for what a patent is. So it has to describe the specification, describes the invention and how to make and use it. And to get a patent, really, the crux of it is you have to have something that’s novel and nonobvious. It’s an invention, right?

So to be able to determine what is worthy of being granted a patent, the next slide– thank you, Dave– shows that, really, the crux of the patent examination process is the examiner searches for what’s called the prior art. So basically, what’s the state of the art? What’s everything that people know before the patent was filed?

They then compare it to what the invention is claimed to be. And they determine if that difference between what the prior art was and what the invention claims to be was obvious to what’s called one of ordinary skill in the art, so the ordinary person. Not the inventive person, not the inventors because they’re presumed to be, by nature of being inventors, a little bit maybe above the ordinary skilled person. But would this be obvious?

So we go to the next slide. So, obviously, the first thing then to be able to determine if something is patentable is to determine, is it novel? So here’s a patent that was granted on a DMT vape pen. People might have heard of DMT vape pens before. This was filed in 2020. DMT vape pens certainly existed before 2020, if you’re familiar with DMT vape pens.

So why was this granted? Well, the next slide shows the patent examiner missed– I mean, there were articles that one should have seen before 2020. And they didn’t search for– even DMT vape pen, they didn’t search Google. They spent really only less than seven minutes even searching. So this is a problem if people can’t find the prior art.

So the next slide shows, this is not just a theoretical problem, but actually, this is a pitch deck from the person who has this patent saying, in the bottom there, the visible internet is replete with sales of DMT vape pens, but they’re infringing. He’s going to go after them. Well, the reason the internet is replete with those sales is because those existed before he filed the patent. So this is somebody getting market power without actually contributing anything to the market.

So the next slide. Actually, this email is just from two days ago. So people may have heard of Porta Sophia, but it’s a nonprofit that is bringing together prior art. David Presti mentioned a lot of the underground work, especially the deep underground work and some of those techniques or the use of some compounds for certain things. Those might not have been in a place where a patent examiner, for instance, can find it.

So this nonprofit called Porta Sophia actually worked to pull together a lot of that prior art and make it available to patent examiners. And so this email just from Tuesday shows actually the– and this is quite a big deal. The Patent Office has made Porta Sophia part of their resource page.

So patent examiners now, because as you could see for the DMT vape pen, they actually don’t sometimes even go look on Google. They just go to the resources they have. So now they have this dedicated resource with psychedelic prior art.

So the next page. So just maybe to dip through a couple other things quickly. So here’s just another example of a patent. The MDMA and LSD in the same pill. So people certainly know that MDMA and LSD might have been taken together. The patent examiner, in fact, did have prior art to show that recreational users had MDMA and LSD that they took together, but they took them in separate dosage forms, not on the same pill.

So the next slide. So they granted that. So just to say that the bar for obviousness is actually quite low. So what makes an invention is not something that actually would take much inventive activity. So I probably don’t have– how much time? Am I done?

POULOMI SAHA: One more minute.

GRAHAM PECHENIK: One more minute. OK. So I’ll maybe see if there’s any other good slides here to go. Yeah. So what is in all these patents? Well, OK, next slide.

There are, as you would imagine, lots of these known compounds– you can probably just keep going– yeah, which, of course, we’re known for many years. And, well, you can probably skip through those. Sorry. I wish I had– yeah. So maybe just a couple other places to stop on my way out.

So, of course, if we’re thinking about how you want to design the patent system, we want to think about creating more innovation rather than having things that are just the same or very similar to what was already existing. I mean, we want to be providing this reward for things that are worthy of that reward. Maybe skip through a few others.

Yeah. I mean, I think, OK. Yeah. So maybe go one more. One more maybe. Yeah. OK. I’ll probably– I guess I’ll wrap up here. I think I have a few more slides. I mean, there are some things here that I wish I would have had time for. I know in 15 minutes is pretty difficult.

Maybe on the next slide we can show that– well, OK, this is another resource with BCSP is the Law and Policy Map. OK. Next slide. Yeah. I mean, there are so many other reasons to be critical of the patent system. I mean, one of the things that does is provides incentives for very specific things.

I mean, I think maybe one place to then end, like, David, you mentioned how MAPS was bringing MDMA through FDA as a reason to maybe figure out how to get MDMA available to more people. And that bringing it through FDA was like a Trojan Horse to get the government to permit it to be available, and then to bring it then more widely to the public.

But what has turned around is now all the investment is going to trying to bring drugs through FDA in a way that the companies who are doing so are now incentivized to make it harder to have access to those drugs outside of the medical realm. So turn what MAPS was doing on its head.

And in doing so, a lot of the philanthropic money that was going to MAPS has turned into investment dollars instead. MAPS has had a hard time– I mean, they became a for-profit entity. And so I think I’ve maybe– if you go to my very– next last slide that I’ll end on. No, not that one, the [INAUDIBLE].

Yeah. Maybe I’ll just end here just to say– I know I barely scratched the surface here, but just to say that the patent system really is something that I think it’s important for people to have more understanding of so they can have more say in it. So I’ll end there.

[APPLAUSE]

POULOMI SAHA: I’ll invite our presenters back. And we actually have– because everyone was actually wonderful about time, we have 15 minutes for questions. And I will not take moderator’s privilege except to say, this conversation was so exciting in the various overlap. Some of them, I think, expected and slightly scripted, and some of them truly unexpected.

And I would love for us to also think about some of the major things that have come up that cut across these presentations, including the question, I think, pre-eminently, of ethics and the question of power. Each of the presenters, in different ways, talked about how this question of mainstreaming has really gotten to the heart of questions of who has access to the resources.

Whether they be questions of Indigenous people and sovereignty, the questions of empire and violence, questions of moving away from the criminalization of particular kinds of access towards medicalization, towards money making patents, and how the question of money and ethics so intervenes with how we think about psychedelics today.

The fact that we are here at Berkeley, we are talking about funding available for this kind of research, and the shift, which is a highly materially driven one, which asks us to think, I think, in really nuanced ways that we begin to hear from our presenters about how we grapple with these real questions, the risks and the possibilities that mainstreaming psychedelics in this way might give rise to.

But before we let them speak to each other, are there questions? Maybe we’ll take a couple of questions at a time since we only have 15 minutes and ask the presenters to respond collectively. There’s a question in the back and here. You can take probably one more. There’s a third, but otherwise we’ll let the presenter– and there’s one all the way in the back.

AUDIENCE: Hi. I had a question for Graham, kind of following up on the last little bit. I’m a bit confused how people get patents when the drugs are federally illegal. Is it specifically like with medical exception, or is it just like– yeah, I guess I’m just a bit confused on the nuances there.

GRAHAM PECHENIK: Yeah. No, it’s a good question. And actually, I have that in my usual deck as a second slide because it is one of the questions I get most often. There are no prohibitions on patenting anything that’s illegal, with, really, two exceptions human clones and nuclear weaponry.

But it doesn’t have to be for medical use. So if you had a new way of making methamphetamines in your bathtub, you could get a patent on it. And it would be examined, too. So the patent examiner would purportedly have to go and see if there’s any prior art on it, but.

POULOMI SAHA: An invitation, perhaps.

GRAHAM PECHENIK: I mean, there may already be a patent on that, actually.

POULOMI SAHA: I think all the way back.

AUDIENCE: Hi. This is also a question for Graham. I’m curious as to how you see the landscape for psychedelic research changing in light of the fact that the recent phase III trials for MDMA-assisted therapy failed. Do you think that there’s still going to be investment and as much patenting in these substances and trials as there was previously?

GRAHAM PECHENIK: Yeah. That’s a really good question. I think the space did get a bit of deflation after the decision to not approve MDMA. It does seem, in general, like that has certainly slowed down the patent activity. I think, to some degree, it’s probably a good thing that there’s less focus on bringing as many drugs as there have been or as many companies bringing the same drugs through FDA.

So whether we need 10 competing companies to bring psilocybin all at the same time through FDA, I think, is a waste of resources, given that there are so many other ways of getting access to it that maybe would provide better access to people, like through state-regulated markets, through just local deprioritization or decriminalization.

So I guess that’s not exactly a direct answer to your question. I think the answer to your question is, I think it did make people realize that it’s going to be, perhaps, harder than they thought. That the money is perhaps further away than they thought because of the difficulty of getting these through FDA.

I think that may have changed with the new administration because people see RFK with the silver lining of maybe it’ll make it easier to have psychedelics approved with the co-president being, for instance, someone who is a very big fan of ketamine, perhaps he’s sympathetic to people who like to use psychedelics, but.

POULOMI SAHA: Let’s take a cluster. I see three hands. Let’s take all three of those questions at once, and then we’ll have the panelists respond.

AUDIENCE: I have a quick question for Diana. As I listened to all of you guys share and just my understanding, I’m curious about, how should psychedelics be mainstreamed from a decolonized perspective?

And what are a few, not necessarily concerns you have, but ways that you would like to see it unfold? Because when we mainstream something with the context of our society, it seems like, with RFK or with co-president, it will be born out of continued colonization and imperialism and capitalism.

DAVID PRESTI: Well, great question and great points. Thank you. Well, first of all, I have no–

DIANA NEGRIN: They wanted to take three questions and then let us all answer.

DAVID PRESTI: Say that again.

DIANA NEGRIN: I think they were going to take–

POULOMI SAHA: We’re going to take a couple of questions first–

DAVID PRESTI: Oh, sorry about that.

POULOMI SAHA: And then I’ll let you all run free with your answers. But let’s just grab these questions. Here and then here.

AUDIENCE: Thanks so much. This question is for Charles. I really enjoyed your talk. Yeah. I was talking to some people in the Jewish psychedelic sphere the other day. I talked to this psychedelic rabbi, and he was saying some interesting things that were dovetailing with some of the things you were pointing out. He was talking about some sort of– what he thought of as Indigenous Israeli psychedelic culture.

And mentioned that even like on the October 7 attack, that there were– the Israeli people were in a rave and that apparently there was some sort of ongoing research looking at, if those people who were taking psychedelics at that rave, how they fared.

And then I just wondered if you were aware of the study on ayahuasca, which brought together Israelis and Palestinians that there was a lot talk about in the psychedelic world. So those are a lot of questions. And I don’t know, in an aside, I guess the question is just how that would fit into your thinking on the current situation. Yeah.

POULOMI SAHA: Right here. Yeah.

AUDIENCE: Hi. Application, I’m a family doctor, end-of-life. My wife’s a therapist. And a lot of this involves the board that oversees therapy versus the board that oversees doctors. And the specific questions about right to try.

One of you mentioned that, but that’s people in end-of-life or people in dire situations, that’s been used for cancer medications, we use for HIV. And I wonder if you see any role for that from your various advantages. And thank you for being here.

POULOMI SAHA: OK. I’m going to let the panelists respond.

DAVID PRESTI: Well, I mean, I’ll say something to just kick it off. One of the questions had to do with, what’s my vision for mainstreaming and going forward? I don’t have one, and I’ve never had one. And my role has been, I’ve been teaching about psychedelics for 35, going on 40 years.

And it’s always been about education, and to move things along by the maximal amount of education. I mean, I do have an opinion about I don’t think folks should be arrested for anything having to do with psychedelics. But other than that, I certainly have no vision of how this is going to play out.

And I think, as I mentioned earlier, we’re in for a wild ride and anything could happen. For decades, these materials and practices were occult. They were under the radar. They were underground. Maybe they should stay there, I don’t know. And they will stay there. I mean, there will be– that will continue.

And there may be another path where there’s some legal FDA-approved availability, probably quite expensive. But with more knowledge out there, people will be able to grow their own mushrooms and develop community around how to effectively and transformatively and, with good preparation, utilize these materials.

DIANA NEGRIN: Yeah. I guess I’ll answer to a couple of the pieces. And I think that there is a very big– there’s a lot of dangers in the current moment, and I think that, at least, from my studies, and even listening to you all, it’s a lot of the same people.

So when we talk about power and ethics, we’re talking about a lot of the same actors, whether it’s Doblin or Bronner’s or Cody Swift, that are involved not only in clinical trials and conferences, but also in land acquisition south of the border. So the question of indigeneity and decoloniality is really important.

And I think I got in a big problem when I had a– last January, I was going to have an article about the relationship between indigeneity and land in the context of psychedelics, and why the psychedelic community should understand how land expropriation and settler colonialism is part of the picture that we’re seeing right now.

And I withdrew my article when I found out that MAPS was holding– continued to hold the conference in Israel in the midst of the genocide. And there was a huge debate online around the question of indigeneity, the trial using ayahuasca with Israelis and Palestinians. Ayahuasca is Indigenous to the Amazon.

So as a geographer, I’m thinking about, what are the ecological and cultural issues ethically with moving plants around that are actually in threat of extinction, whose lands are being taken over by mining, cattle ranching, other forms of drug matters like cocaine and poppy production. These communities are dealing with so much.

And unfortunately, a lot of the people who are making the rounds doing this work at a global power level are completely abstracted from how people are experiencing this on the ground. And if we don’t treat the fundamental issues of trauma, if we replicate and perpetuate war, then, yes, psychedelics become part and parcel of the same project rather than a liberation. And so that’s my big concern of the dangers and how decoloniality needs to really address those rooted issues, so yeah. [LAUGHS]

CHARLES HIRSCHKIND: Yeah. No. I agree. Thank you for the question. I think I am aware of that study. And it brought Palestinians and Israelis together in the context of using ayahuasca to see the way that that might bridge differences between them and change their feelings for each other and open up possibilities of dialogue and connection and so on.

It’s predicated on the idea that what drives the problem in Israel-Palestine is attitudes, feelings, antipathies, when actually the problem is driven by the policies of the state, which have the effect of producing those antipathies and feelings.

And so I’m not really optimistic in any way, actually. I think that– I don’t think there’s much use in that kind of study when it ignores the political facts that drive the struggle. So I thank you for the question.

POULOMI SAHA: I saw another hand here. We have time for one. Unless there’s a burning second question, we’ll end with one last question.

AUDIENCE: Yeah. I was just curious to compare– I think, Dr. Presti, you had started to mention the political moment of the early psychedelic landscape and how that was integrated in with a radical politics, versus within the mainstreaming we’re now seeing of a neoliberal psychedelic politics about how we can become more mentally fit to maintain the status quo. And I’m just curious how we would think about those dualities as we’re considering mainstreaming psychedelics.

DAVID PRESTI: Bingo. Mentally fit for meeting the status quo is not sustainable.

[LAUGHTER]

POULOMI SAHA: A pithy answer to an excellent question. On that note, please join me in thanking our panelists for that really terrific panel.

[APPLAUSE]

[MUSIC PLAYING]

 

Matrix On Point

Los Angeles Wildfires: Risk, Resilience, and Collective Action

Part of the Matrix on Point Series

As wildfires grow more frequent and devastating, they expose vulnerabilities in infrastructure, governance, and community preparedness. Tackling this escalating threat demands interdisciplinary solutions that address not just the immediate risks but also the broader systemic changes driving extreme weather events.

Recorded on February 18, 2025, this Matrix on Point discussion featured Christopher Ansell, Professor of Political Science and Executive Director of the UC Berkeley Center for Catastrophic Risk Management (CCRM); Kenichi Soga, Distinguished Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of the Berkeley Center for Smart Infrastructure; and Marta Gonzalez, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and City and Regional Planning. Louise Comfort, Professor Emerita and Project Scientist, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, moderated.

This panel was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Department of City and Regional Planning, the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science, the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management, and the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS).

The panel was presented as part of Matrix On Point, a discussion series promoting focused, cross-disciplinary conversations on today’s most pressing issues. Offering opportunities for scholarly exchange and interaction, each Matrix On Point features the perspectives of leading scholars and specialists from different disciplines, followed by an open conversation. These thought-provoking events are free and open to the public.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to a recording of this panel below or on Apple Podcasts.

Transcript

[UPBEAT MUSIC]

WOMAN’S VOICE: The Matrix Podcast is a production of Social Science Matrix, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Berkeley.

CORI HAYDEN: Welcome to the Matrix. My name is Cori Hayden. I am the interim Director of Social Science Matrix this semester from the Anthropology Department, otherwise.

It’s a real delight to welcome you all here for this panel, which was organized on relatively short notice. And thank you so much to Louise Comfort and colleagues here for helping put this together, not just helping put it together, for taking the initiative and making this happen, obviously, in response to the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles. We’re going to explore some of the many dimensions of the issues that come up with urban and wild wildfires threats, bringing together a range of absolutely critical perspectives from political science, civil and environmental engineering, and, of course, from the Center for Catastrophic Risk Management.

We’d like to thank our co-sponsors as well. City and Regional Planning, Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society, CITRIS. Now, I know that Louise Comfort, as moderator, will have some substantive introductory comments, so I will keep it short here.

I do want to– let’s see if I can do this. Oh, yes. –do my due diligence as center director and remind you or let you know of some upcoming events at Matrix.

We have a very packed semester of extraordinarily timely conversations. Upcoming next Monday– Virtual Realities and Digital Spaces. Thursday, March 6, really interesting panel, lunchtime panel, on mainstreaming psychedelics.

Monday, March 17th– An Author Meets Critics Panel With Areej Sabbagh-Khoury from the Department of Sociology to discuss her recent book, Colonizing Palestine. Additional events are up here. Please do keep us in mind as you are looking for interesting things to do with all of your copious spare time. But today, as our topic is the Los Angeles wildfires. And we’re going to be talking about risk, resilience, and collective action. I will leave the floor to our panelists, but let me introduce our moderator, Professor Dr. Louise Comfort.

Louise Comfort is project scientist with the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the co-principal investigator for the NSF grant, Designing Smart, Sustainable Risk Reduction and Hazard Prone Communities, which runs from 2022 to 2025 here at Berkeley. She’s Professor Emerita of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs and was the director of the Center for Disaster Management at the University of Pittsburgh from 2009 to 2017. As a fellow– she’s a fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration and received the 2020 Fred Riggs Award for Lifetime Achievement on International Comparative Administration.

She studies the dynamics of decision-making in response to urgent events, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, wildfire, COVID-19, among them. That list was probably going to just keep getting longer. Without further ado, let me turn it over with enormous gratitude to Louise Comfort. Thank you.

LOUIS COMFORT: Yeah.

[APPLAUSE]

Thank you. Thank you very much. And I am delighted to introduce this panel, a sad panel but an important panel and one that we really need to pay attention to.

Let me just give you just a very brief context of these, were catastrophic– and we’re looking at catastrophic risk, a set of conditions that’s the extreme of the extremes. And this is probably the most consequential, the most costly, the most difficult wildfire we have seen.

Just some brief statistics. It was not just one wildfire. It was 10 wildfires burning successively. In the two big wildfires, the Eaton wildfire and the Palisades fire, were burning simultaneously.

So this was a situation where we had– it burned over 16,000 acres. The numbers keep changing. And there were at least 25 people who were dead, found dead, but likely the consequences from of smoke, pollution, et cetera, will lead to more and thousands and thousands of people harmed.

The evacuation was really rather remarkable. About 200,000 people were evacuated in a matter of hours. It was chaotic. It was difficult.

Cars were being pushed off the road, but they got people out. And the total cost was estimated at $250 billion, largest, most expensive wildfire we’ve had. The critical thing about this event is that was the initial event.

And already what we see is the rains came, and the mudslides that followed, and the floods. And then the whole discussion of recovery. So we’re looking at these catastrophic events of very complex systems that are interacting and interrelated. And I’m very pleased to say that we have, from our own Berkeley faculty, some expert analysts to address exactly this.

And we have Kenichi Soga from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. And Kenichi Soga, if I read all of this, I think I’m going to shorten it a little bit. He is not only professor, and he’s a distinguished professor of all kinds of things, but he’s also the director of the Center for Smart Infrastructure and also the principal investigator of a project that is focused on designing resilience for communities at risk and the interaction between the built infrastructure, the organizations that manage it, and the people in the communities and interacting with them.

And second, we have Marta Gonzalez, professor of city and regional planning, who has looked at modeling in complex systems. And then we have Chris Ansell, who is professor of political science, is focused on governance issues, and especially governance across jurisdictions. So this is what you’ve seen, but I do have to point out this was a photograph.

And anyone who lived through the ’91 fires here will see that ominous standing chimney. And then this was the critical issue. It’s where we are now in– excuse me, cascading and compound risks.

And this is the burn scar from both the Eaton and the Palisades fire that is now subject to mudslides, landslides, flooding. And so our challenge is really to understand these complex conditions, the dynamics that are driving these extremes, and to anticipate the risk for the next time, which will surely come. Now, I’ll turn it over to Kenichi.

[APPLAUSE]

KENICHI SOGA: So I’m Kenichi Soga from the College of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department. I see my colleagues here. So it’s great to have our College of Engineering and Civil Engineering colleagues here.

We’re coming from a very technical side. And I think gradually it goes to Marta and then Chris into social science side. So please bear with me.

We have a project really promoting what we call socio-technical digital twin. But before I do that, two weeks ago, Louise and I were in LA area looking at the aftermath of the wildfire. And these are the photos that we took. And we took a lot of photos in Palisades and also Altadena.

And one thing that you see– the burned the car on the right. And it’s the first time I saw no EV.

So we start to see this new technology creating an issue on the other– when you have a wildfire, what do we deal with this EV-related cars and that sort of things? So that’s another interesting area of research, I think, that we need to think about.

During the weekend, I went through a variety of news articles and figured out what are the issues on the evacuation, which I’m focusing a little bit more today. But you can see there are a lot of articles, and you’ve probably read some of the articles related to that. The one on the right– I’m not sure you can see it. It’s the purple one. It’s showing the evacuation order that happened. It’s from The Wall Street Journal.

I have to go through, check with the– going to LA to find out more about it, whether this is true or not. But you can see that the evacuation order was done on the one side of the street that you see on the purple side. And then, the after eight hours, evacuation was on the left side of the street. And then you can see on the bottom figure showing that who were killed in that particular incident you see more on the left side.

So there’s an interesting– think about evacuation and that thing. And this is where we come familiar earlier with Paradise and Camp Fire event that I started working in this area with Louise. And I’m going to show you more on that.

At College of Engineering and Center for Smart Infrastructure, many of our colleagues know that we run a lot of simulations. And the simulation is coming from the street level to the regional scale. So in the left, we see the area where we are. There are about 7 million people. There are about 15 million trips every day.

We model each individual trip and see what’s going on in each of the roads. And then we say, OK, Bay Bridge goes down, what’s going to happen? On the right is our water network, is pipelines that you see. And then, when earthquake happens, what’s going to happen to the pipelines, and then how we recover? So these are the things that we do in our simulations.

And really we’re looking at systems of systems or how one system affects the other through the simulations. And then, we hope that will inspire some of– or work together with our social scientist colleagues.

The SimCenter is an NSF-funded Center. So it’s a collection of our research colleagues working in not only wildfire, but also earthquakes and also on tsunamis and other things. So if you want to know more about it, please let us know.

This is an example of when earthquake happens. There’s a Hayward earthquake that happens here. And you can see the ground shaking, which is shown on the left top. And then, you can start to simulate which part of the pipeline will get damaged and then how much water will go, so you do a simulation of the water. And then you start to see earthquake may not happen in one particular location.

It’s probabilistic. So you have to do a lot of simulation to figure out. And then, we can also simulate what happens to the red-type buildings, and then traffic disruption. So these are the interactions that we do simulate.

And then looking at the functional recovery, how long it will take, and how do we recover. So these are working with East Bay MUD. This is a project with Caltrans.

For example, Caltrans have thousands of bridges. Of course, Bay Bridge, Golden Gate Bridge are good, but then there are thousands of bridges. When earthquake happens, which one is going to be? So we have a project to see which bridge is very important so that everybody has access to hospitals, everybody has access to fire station, everybody has access to police stations. So these are the things that we’re working with Caltrans, and looking at emergency recovery and functional recovery.

The project that I want to highlight today is what we call a smart and connected community. It’s a National Science Foundation project that we’ve been working together with the counties of Alameda and Marin in particular. And Louise is one of the colleagues. But Steven Collier, who you may know, and then Michael Goldner from the mechanical engineering, we all work together with the UC Santa Cruz and UC Davis colleagues.

For my part, it’s really using socio-technical digital twin, the simulation that you see, a wildfire simulation that you see on the top, a traffic simulation. So what you see in the dot is like a usual traffic. It’s ordinary traffic that happens.

And then, you start to see some people in the blue evacuating. And then, what are the interaction? What are the bottlenecks?

Obviously, it’s a simulation. So it’s not going to be true. Every event will be different, but you start to see what-if scenario. What are the things happening? And then it allows the community to discuss with the local government by looking at each other and trying to understand each other.

So I’ll go through this a little bit more carefully, and that’s what we do. So what we do in this particular project is that Louise will look at through the interviews and looking at the network. So Louise may talk about this later on, but then there is a formal network, how people talk to each other during the wildfire event, but also there’s an informal network like fire councils and all these organizations. And then, the link may be related to PG&E, for example, not through the local government, Cal Fire and Cal OES.

So on the formal network, you see Cal Fire and Cal OES linking closely together. But then, in the informal one, it’s really fire councils that I see some of the colleagues here linking to PG&E. We do simulations on wildfire modeling and agent base. And then important part in the most important part is that how to model the communication, how the organization talk to each other, how the organization talk to the public, and how do we model that is a tricky part. But I rely on Louise to work on that.

And so we can combine everything together to see what’s going on. And I’ll show you some later on. And then my colleagues from UC Davis and UC Santa Cruz creates games out of that. So because these are complex system, outcomes are quite complex sometimes. So how do we bring that into gaming environment is what we’re working on.

In terms of social science questions, these are the three questions that my colleagues highlighted. You see on the left? One is called social dimension, which is complex time. How do people look up time, how they think about time?

Your time is different from my time. Sometimes, my time go quickly. Your time goes very slowly.

What are the times? And I guess that’s something about complex time scales of risk and capacity for action. So again, whether it’s a local, or government, or regional, how do that– risk and capacity can be looked at and make action?

And the action is related to the third one, collective cognition and action, is that how community– it’s not only a person making action. It’s really how the community collectively make a– realize what is going on at that time and make the right action.

So again, it’s about cognition and action as a community. And that’s what the– another third question that my colleagues came up.

So in the project, these are the important questions to answer. And then, myself, I will work on the right side on the technological dimension, is to figure out how it works together. And obviously, by showcasing those together in community is what we want to do.

So Camp Fire is probably, you may remember, in 2018, that happened in November 8. And, of course, the Camp Fire wildfire happened, as you can see, on the simulation. And we see how fast it went to the Paradise. And within one hour or two hours, it consumed all the town. And obviously, everybody has to evacuate, as you can see on the right bottom.

So we do simulation of this in terms of wildfire and then communication model and how traffic goes. Oops, sorry. And then, how the traffic simulation happens? And then, compare that with the reality and try to see.

Obviously, there are a variety of issues. For example, if you evacuate, you may have two cars in your household, so you want to use two cars. You may have three cars, so you may have three cars. But it may be better to just have one car because it don’t create traffic jams. So the question is that if you only have one car, what would have happened?

At that particular day, cell tower went down, so people didn’t have a communication. And what would have happened? So again, if you don’t have that communication part, what would have happened? And that’s something that we can look at as well.

The most important part is really looking at the timeline of what happened. And then, this is the video of the fire chief going to the site in the morning, where actually the fire has consumed the city, and then town, and then people are evacuating. So Louise and I and ourselves got together to really looking at the timeline because that’s so important in terms of understanding what really happened and how organization behaves. So we really want to do this for the LA Fire as well. And we just submitted a supplementary request to NSF, but we’ll see how NSF goes.

The incident is that fire arrived at Paradise at 8:00 AM. And then 10:30, the communication went down. Actually, the Paradise had 14 zone divided, and they had an award-winning evacuation plan. But then that assumed a staged evacuation. But in this case, it went so fast the fire chief had to decide everybody evacuate at the same time.

And the question really is that the right thing to do? And this is something that we can simulate and understand. You can see that there’s a four exits, different roads.

And then, at every point, because the fire was coming from the right side, they had to stop the access road stop. And then you can see when that happens. So again, that allows us to look at the simulation, how the people evacuate.

They did use a contraflow, meaning that there are four lanes to two, but then they 4 lanes. But then the issue was that sometimes if you’re on the right side, you’re not very used to it. Your police chief and the other cars are coming against you. And so you have to figure out is that the right thing to do. So there was confusion on that particular part as well.

So that is a finding that we made. And then we’re trying to simulate the most important part of the communication challenge is really how people decide to evacuate. And that, we see that on the wildfire in LA as well, is that you– people, the fire chief will come and say there’s a siren saying that evacuate, but people don’t usually evacuate.

It’s only your neighbor knocking the door saying you’ve got to evacuate that you evacuate. So these are the things that we do see often, but we have to create a timeline. So that’s what you see on the right, is that we inform population and how they evacuated. So these are an important part of our simulations.

And at the end, we do simulation like this for this particular car. Each individual cars are modeled. But then you can see time it took for 90% of evacuees to leave Paradise. So that’s what you see on the right top, which is called baseline.

So if you see on the right top, I’m not sure I can show you. This is the baseline, which took about five hours, six hours to evacuate. But let’s say if you had one vehicle to go, then it takes about three hours. And then if you do contraflow, what would the effect?

We have a phased evacuation. It did have an effect, but then actually doing an immediate effect did have a good results as well. Real-time information is about if your smartphone is working, if you knew about the traffic.

But in this case, you only have one way to go anyway, so it doesn’t really help. But in Berkeley Hills, there are different ways to evacuate because there are small roads, so real time– we know that real-time traffic information does help to evacuate faster.

Obviously, it’s not only evacuation, but then if you’re evacuating under the fire, it becomes your lifetime trauma as well, being exposed to fire. So you can be safe, but you’re under the fire, creates a psychological, mental issue in the future. And therefore, we also look at how long you are in the fire as well.

So the simulation does like this. Actually, what you see on the right is simulation. We’re working with City of Berkeley. Maybe you’re familiar with Marine Avenue, Marine Circle. And there we do simulation of that and then trying to work together what are the issues on that particular Marine Avenue, and then how do we evacuate effectively?

We do have a game. So if you go to a QR code, you can look at some of these games that my colleagues from UC Santa Cruz are developing. There are entertainment game developers, but then they also call them serious game developers. So we’re working with the community to showcase these ones.

We also have a startup called WUI-Go!, trying to use this particular simulations and then trying to make more evacuation personalized. So you can see some of the apps that we start to create. And these embedded simulations are part of that. But at the same time, this particular software is– trying to make it small so that it works without cell coverage.

And then we’re trying to do that as well. So we tried to put the information as possible inside your small computer on your smartphone. So if the internet goes down, at least you can see how you evacuate. So it gives you different routes by putting, if it is blocked here, what’s going to happen?

So this is my last slide just to see two sites that we looked at. Altadena, which is on the left– and then, Palisades on the right. And just looking at the geographic but also street, they’re all quite different.

In other words, we also see in the other cases, Berkeley Hills, we work on Sunol, we work with Marin County, Inverness area, but also with the Novato. They’re all different street condition, which means that they’re all different scenarios that we need to think about. One is more important than the other, and that’s where it’s very important that what you learn from one does not really reflect the other.

What we need to do is to find out some other things, and hopefully that what we want to do with these simulations is not just understand what your belief is correct, but then also find out what your belief may not be correct, and find out more scenarios in your community.

And therefore, when something happens, you can see which one is the right one for your community to take and make the right decision. So that’s what we’re doing at the moment. Thank you very much.

[APPLAUSE]

MARTA GONZALEZ: All right. We were in the civil engineering domain. I belong to civil engineering and city planning. So I would like to bring some data-driven planning and modeling in wildfire research.

I had to put things in context. And what is surprising to me is, if you see, from 1985 until a few years ago, the number of fires, contrary to what you may be perceiving, is not increasing. However, the area burned is increasing a lot, which is this black line here.

And then, the suppression cost increases. And California is right there with the US suppression costs. But what is most surprising to me is the number of infrastructures that have been destroyed.

So if you see here, from the last 16 years, it is only this amount of infrastructure. But in the orange line, until 2019, we have this. If we include the wildfire of LA here, the red zone is already going to be all this size because this is the campfire with 18,000 buildings infrastructures, and we have 18,000 infrastructure.

So the amount of infrastructures destroyed is growing an exponential rate. And that brings us to the urban planning domain. The problem is that we know how costly housing is in our state.

And we have this model of growth that is low density growth, also called sprawling. And that brings us to go from the urban side to what we call the WUI, the wild urban interface. And that is a problem we need to address.

And, well, it’s a political problem, not only a modeling problem. So that is what brought me, the urban planning had brought me into this problem. And here is just– from 2020 until today, how many more blocks increase the WUI.

So here we have LA, is in a dramatic context and also the Bay Area, so all over California. This is the PNAS 2024 by Greenberg is showing us where the WUI blocks are increasing. And here, in the right-hand side, we can say the climate.

So this is the infrastructure planning growth, and this is the climate, which means that we have more bigger areas fire. So the fire is getting worse, and we are building in the WUI. That is our problem that we need to tackle.

And it’s a sobering case. I will not solve it. But let me go into three examples in which I think data and modeling has helped us.

And this is the first one, what brought me into this topic. So it’s basically how we predict wildfire behavior and intensity of spread. It was through the realization of this type of law. We want to spread when– this is in the wildfire, not in the WUI.

Just in the wildland, when we are spreading the fire, we need fuel type, fuel moisture, wind speed and slope. And the physics of that is the so-called Rothermel equation, which are not microscopic physics like the one Michael Goldner is doing. This is semi-empirical laws. And these laws are in different simulators, Prometheus in Canada, Farsite here in the US, like the one Kenichi was using.

And the problem is that this physics is old. The simulators were built in the ’50s probably. And I thought as a physicist, and engineer, and data scientist, we should be doing better, something that everybody can use, that is friendly. Let’s bring the IT here. Then I had this student from Iowa, a brilliant student, that developed– we shared this thing. It has to be better. Let’s develop it ourselves.

He wrote down the equations in a cellular automata model, and it is open source. And here what we have is what’s the angle of the ellipse, and what is the rate of spread in the front, in the back, and in the flank. So we are able to– because it’s relatively simple physics, we are able to write down the equation, Cristobal was, and develop the model.

And here is where Minho comes, our PhD student, to follow up on the thesis of Cristobal. And we have here the fire spread of our model itself to fire in Santa Barbara versus the standard fire simulator that is Farsite. And we can do better because the physics of these problems are simple. Then we have the typical problems, that here is the real fire scar. Here is what the simulator saw. So we are falling short in how to model the fires.

We have the hope that applying machine learning would give us better models. Sobering story. Just simple black box optimization was better. And we set the fire, change the shape of the ellipse, parameters and get better results.

So right now we have an open-source fire spread simulator that can produce fire scars. It’s not very elegant because, again, it’s not the physics of the problem, is semi-empirical models. But we have it and we expect to use our models with CRM to have something open source. And as we know, Berkeley is very keen in open source.

Then, the second story is facility allocation, is again, where is the communities? And there is one aspect that I see, the environmental science modeling is not together with the human models. And this is what brings us into the second story.

We have the ability to download and process the whole 2 million nodes of the road network in California. We are able to download all the fire stations, and we want to see something as simple as the accessibility to fire station of the different census blocks in the state. However, we need to do a facility allocation, not only take into account where the people is, that is more the planning had. That is not doing the environmental science part.

We also have in every block what is the fire behavior, that is, the fire intensity in the block in the state. And then, we have this optimization model that is for every block of 0.1km, what is the shortest travel time from the fire station, and what is the fire behavior in that block? Then, you have a risk index that is the combination of these two. That is the shortest time to the fire station.

If you have these too long, your risk is very high. You have the fire behavior. And here comes the number of infrastructures and amount of people.

So we have all the different variables. And these type of thing, when we are doing optimization, we come still– I think we fall short. The best ideas for facility allocation may come from the social science.

And here, we have the fire behavior only is worse in the North. If we only look at the amount of people and infrastructure is here in the South. This is a LA County. And with this, together having fire behavior and sociodemographic utility, we have this weighted utility to then minimize the risk to every block and allocate the facilities.

In this paper, it was before the fires in LA, what we show is that all this region in the South are lacking access to fire stations. And if we relocate the facilities, we have all this shortened in the shortest travel time to the fire station. So here is where we come from, infrastructure data and optimization.

The last story brings us more into the WUI and land use. And it’s assessing the mobility in LA in context. And here we have 21 cities around the world. Notice that we have from the more sprawl to the less sprawl.

And there, if you look at the name, we have Latin America, Europe, China, and California. And what we see interestingly is that when we compare, let’s say Boston area with LA, those are the probability density function of wind in a radius of travel for every mobile phone user in these cities. And what we see, in short, is that in cities like Bogota, the poorest population live in the skirts and need to travel more. In cities like LA, the poorest population live in downtown. So who is the sprawling is the surprise, surprise, the richer neighborhoods in California?

And then we started seeing something very interesting, is depending– what distance you are from the CBD, how many people you find? And here you see in LA all this amount of people that travel everywhere. In Boston, you travel more if you are far from the CBD. This is a monocentric city. But LA, mobility wise, is a polycentric city.

So we are sprawling and traveling everywhere. And when we compare polycentric, monocentric, which is the travel behavior, with the development of the land where people is, which is the Gini of the population distribution, we see that LA is in this a box, that is, polycentric and dispersed. And when we see this, a plot of the 21 cities mentioned, California cities are in the worst parts, dispersed and polycentric.

So we got to put this into our model. So with slide, I would like to wrap up. We need to develop physics-based models informed, hopefully by AI, to improve prediction of fire behavior.

Data science and decision science allow us to target vulnerable locations at the state level. Our next step includes market design, Mansi, I am looking at you, for land use planning and more compact urban development. And that’s it.

LOUISE COMFORT: Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

And now, I’d like to introduce Chris Ansell, who will take us into the governance nexus.

CHRISTOPHER ANSELL: Good.

LOUISE COMFORT: Thank you.

CHRISTOPHER ANSELL: OK, hi, everybody. Thanks, Louise. Thanks to the Matrix for organizing this.

My co-panelists, thank you very much. Strangely, our topics complement one another, even though I don’t have any models here at all. So Louise suggested that I focus some of my comments on governance, which is what I’ve done.

And before I get into the details, and maybe I’m dating myself, but I want to make an analogy between the Los Angeles fires and Hurricane Katrina. Some of you may remember that. That was very formative for some of us to think about. I know Louise worked there as well.

And just like in the LA fires, there was a blame game that went on. And I’m sure you spotted it in the newspaper. It started very early in Katrina and continued. And you may recall that a lot of the blame fell on FEMA.

And FEMA was the villain of the story. And it was argued to be too slow and too unresponsive to the needs of the local community. OK, and so FEMA certainly didn’t perform amazingly well, and there were definitely some mistakes made. But I recall a conversation that was important for me with a colleague who Louise knows named Arjen Boin, a Dutch scholar, also a well-known crisis management scholar.

And he said– he ended up writing a book about Katrina. And one of the things he said is everybody was focused on how to analyze the errors of FEMA.

He said that’s kind of misleading. He said if you really look at it, the best emergency management agency in the world would have failed in Katrina. And focusing on their errors, not that they’re unimportant, that’s not the point.

Not that they’re unimportant, but focusing on the errors of FEMA is distracting you from the big picture. And that stuck with me as an important thing. And I think a similar thing as I read the newspaper articles.

A similar thing is true about LA. We got focused on a lot of blaming across– between the mayor, and between the governor, and between the LA Fire Department, and other people. And if you focus on that, you can find errors, things they did wrong, but it sort of distracts you from the big picture. So I want to try to put it a little bit in a big picture for you.

And this quote up here by John Keeley, who is a US Geological Service Survey fire ecologist based in California. And just to paraphrase, he said something like, and this caught my attention as I was thinking about this, how this puts things in perspective. He basically said when the winds are blowing like this, all bets are off.

So the severity of the winds were just overwhelming almost anything you could do in response. Now, again, that doesn’t mean that there weren’t ways you could improve, that there were things you could do better. I’m not saying that, but just kind of trying to get you to focus on some of the bigger issues.

OK, and what are the bigger issues? Sticking with John Keeley, I’m impressed by a particular distinction he makes in his work with some colleagues. And he distinguishes between fuel-dominated fires and wind-dominated fires. And fuel-dominated fires are driven by the buildup of excessive fuel.

You’ve probably heard a lot about this, about how in the West we suppress fire so long and it built up fuel. And that led to our President saying that the problem in California was we were not raking the forests enough. But it turns out that the fires in LA were wind-driven, not fuel-dominated fires.

And that actually has implications for how you think about public policy, as I’m going to try to bring out a little bit. And the first big thing is, and you can see down here, is that a lot of the wind-driven fires, which, by the way, are mostly along the Coast of California, except for the camp Camp Fire– it’s a little further in. But they’re all being impacted or lit, or many of them are being lit by power line failures. So there, that’s an important public policy issue there to think about governance.

Now, if you think about power lines, they’re kind of a tricky issue. It’s an important issue to think about, but it’s a tricky issue. There’s speculation, by the way, that the Eton fire, but not the Palisades fire, was caused– speculation.

There’s still investigation. Speculation that it was caused by Southern Edison power lines. Is that right? Southern Edison? Yeah.

Now, one of the ways that you can address the power line issue, this is a governance question. You can put the power lines underground. Really expensive, effective, but really expensive.

Now, what Keeley says is that that’s a good public policy solution. Whether people will pay for it or not is another issue. He says we can be a little bit more selective.

We know, we’ve done modeling of extreme winds. We have a lot of data on that. We can tell, show you where the extreme winds are likely to come in the future, and we can selectively put things underground. But if you see pictures of where the Eaton fire was, up in the hills, it’s a pretty hard place to put things underground. So that’s another point to keep in mind.

OK, so now let me talk about a second issue. And Marta already brought this up. And this is the issue of what are called the wildland-urban interface.

And the wildland-urban interface or WUI– that interface is where you get basically high density of vegetation coming into contact with high density of settlement or buildings. Where those two things come together, it’s not a very good place for big wildfires. A lot of the big devastating wildfires we’ve had are in these or near these WUI zones.

And so what I wanted you to– first, I should say that people who do a lot of research on this have found that there’s different ways to measure WUI. And this one is using remote sensing. It says that it’s an improvement on several other measures.

But anyway, what I really wanted you to see was this, a map of California in the middle, B. And what I want you to see is that these are measuring the amount of area of WUI in a particular county. And you see, the worst place from this perspective in California is in San Diego. It’s not so good up in Sonoma, either.

OK, that dark brown area is San Diego down there. You go two counties up. That’s LA. That’s like the second worst county to be in.

OK, now think about this in governance terms. We have fire-dominated– fire-driven fires in areas that are dominated by wildland, by WUI. So this is a real challenge in LA.

OK, now this is leading me to my next point, which is going back to the blame game. But before the fires, the LA– there’s two fire departments in LA. One, the County Fire Department, and one, the City Fire Department.

Before the fire, about a month before, the Fire Chief had– the City Fire Department sent a message to the City Council and the Mayor saying, you cut our budget by this amount of money, and we’re not really prepared to deal with a lot. You’ve undercut our capacity. So this is part of the issue.

And in fact, one of the other issues was that the LA Fire Department didn’t really respond very quickly and very adequately to the fire. There were other issues that came up in the blame game. And you may have heard of them, the water and fire hydrants. The water basically ran out for the fire personnel, firefighters. And that made national news.

It turns out, just to say something about this, again, Connie, you need to put this in context of a larger perspective of the magnitude of the fire. There’s a guy, a water resources expert at UCLA, named Greg Pierce, and he basically said there is no fire, there is no water system in the world that would have been able to function perfectly under these conditions. And then he said, and this is also– I’m getting you to think about costs and what the trade-offs are.

You can put– you can make the water system really reliable for giant wildfires, but it’s going to be really costly. And the question is whether that’s the best use of the money. Is it better that money goes into maybe burying power lines, for instance?

So now I want to come back. There’s a bigger structural issue, and it was brought up in Marta’s talk about the polycentric and dispersed nature of Los Angeles. And that is, if you look at LA County and LA City, you see that the fire departments cover this incredible size geographical region between the two of them. It’s much bigger than New York City’s metropolitan region, by the way.

And one of the things they found, I wasn’t able to find reliable data on this, but one of the things they found is that the number of firefighters that you have in LA– they’re very thin on the ground. And it’s partly because they got to cover these big geographical distances. So this goes back to the finding that Marta found.

Now, when the fire chief said, “Mayor, you’ve cut our budget. You’re undercutting our capacity.” That was, I’m sure, true to some extent. But the Mayor said, well, we had some tough choices to make. And you can understand that.

They had to make some tough choices. We put this into education, or do we put it into the firefighting, et cetera, et cetera? Do we put it into affordable housing, which is a big issue in LA, or do we put it into firefighting? You can see that there’s tough choices.

Now, what I expect is after this, the fire department will get a budget increase, and the budget increase will improve their capacity at the margins. But I don’t think that LA is ever going to have fire capacity the same as New York or Chicago because it has to deal with this basic structural problem of a big dispersed polycentric area.

OK, now let me come to my next point. And this brings me, in terms of thinking about governance, to what some of the planning and regulatory approaches are for dealing with issues of wildfire. And let me just say, take one step back and say people like John Kelly who’ve been studying these wind-dominated fires– he says you’re really better than thinking about response because that’s how we think of LA.

The fire department is a response function. You should think about preparedness, prevention, preparedness, and resilience of community like Kenichi is working on. And that’s probably a better use of money. But what’s happening there when you actually look at that?

Well, one of the things that’s happening with planning is that there’s a couple of different ways that local– well, first of all, I need to tell you that a lot of planning is very localized for wildfire. It’s basically 88 cities in LA County. They’re all doing their own little planning for the issue.

And one of the things you learn from the research on this is that there’s a lot of variation in the quality of those plans. Some communities are really doing a good job, and some aren’t doing such a good job. And then, there are different mechanisms for planning. And there’s three big ones that I found. One is called community wildfire protection plans.

These were prompted by federal legislation, but they take place locally. And it turns out they’ve done research on these. And they find out that some do good work, but a lot of them are superficial. So they don’t do great stuff, unfortunately.

And other research has found that these hazard mitigation plans, which are sponsored by FEMA– that they actually do a better job than the wildfire plans. And the reason why they found is interesting to me is because they found that local planners have to check more boxes in order to actually get the plan approved, and that leads them to be more systematic. And then there’s also something called the general plan, which all counties do. They put together a general plan, but those– the best approach is through these hazard mitigation plans.

OK, another thing I want to tell you, which is interesting, I think, is that California and Los Angeles are pioneers. They’re really out ahead of a lot of other places in terms of wildfire planning. In some ways, they’re doing a really good job, although it’s limited in ways that I’m going to tell you in a second. But they’re out ahead of other states and many other cities.

So one of the ways that California has been ahead of things is that they have what are called– they’ve developed maps of high-risk areas, and they’ve connected local planning regulation to those maps. So basically, in these high-hazard zones, you don’t actually– you do actually have to build to a higher standard. And that’s something that California has been ahead in.

OK, now that brings me to regulation. And I found that there’s two big types of regulation at the local level that are designed to make communities more resilient. One is basically to get rid of the vegetation around your house.

That’s called producing a defensible– what is it called? A defensible space. Thank you. And the other is called home hardening, basically making your home more resistant to lighting on fire in the first place through the materials you would use on your roof.

Now, vegetation. For instance, I told my wife, OK, there’s a new rule that says we’re going to– there’s going to be a new state rule that says you have to clear stuff within 5 feet of your house. I told my wife that. She says– her reaction is, “Oh my god, that’s like half of our garden.”

[LAUGHTER]

 

And I think– and I just use my wife as an example of– I think a lot of people feel that way. And one of the things that they found is that there’s a lot of pushback on these local regulations. So there’s a political angle to this.

OK, in terms of home hardening, again, California has been a leader on that, has very strict building codes. But one of the limits of this is that this only works for building, new buildings. And old, wooden houses like mine in Berkeley– they’re like tinderboxes.

And we’re not really not really improving those. So there’s a long-term transition to really move towards greater resilience in this way. OK, I’m almost done here.

And so my conclusion about these regulatory measures is that they’re good, they’re important, but they don’t really meet the need for responding to fire on a big level. And I had some more slides, but I’m going to jump to my conclusion, which is the governance of large fires in Los Angeles and California is, to be very understated, a big challenge.

I think the good news from what I– from my reading is that cities like Los Angeles and the state of California are really leaders in addressing wildfire risks, contrary to what our President has been saying.

And also, I saw a lot of evidence in reading things that there are– that fires do lead to incremental improvements in wildfire safety. So you do see learning going on, although I would describe it as mostly incremental.

The bad news is that addressing these more fundamental challenges is really confronts some significant political and financial barriers, addressing the problem of utility lines, or building up the capacity for fire response, or accelerating home hardening. All these things are expensive, and they pose trade-offs across these different programs.

So if you look at local planning and regulation, it’s kind of mixed. It’s very variable by community. Some communities don’t have the capacity to do it very well. There’s limits in the willingness of citizens to go along with local regulations.

So I hope in the end, I’ve provided a little bit of perspective on the governance. I hope I didn’t go too far past. Yeah, thanks.

LOUISE COMFORT: Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

 

Well, thank you, Chris, very much. We’ve had three different perspectives from different disciplinary of views. And now, I’d like to open it up for questions if anyone would like to ask a question. Anna.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thanks for all the presentations. I have a question regarding to the first presentation. How do you couple the information from the network’s analysis with the simulations that Kenichi does?

KENICHI SOGA: So when you say network analysis, our simulation is a network analysis.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: The network analysis is a network analysis.

KENICHI SOGA: Oh, I got it. So I asked Louise to create– we are agent-based model. So each agent decides when to evacuate. So that means that the agent’s decision is made from the model. Does that make sense?

AUDIENCE MEMBER: I see.

KENICHI SOGA: Yeah.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK.

KENICHI SOGA: So wildfire propagates seeing the– so there is an agent who will see a fire and say I got to evacuate. So there are certain proportion of that saying that some proportion will say, well, somebody said so I’m evacuating. So Louise is creating that model for that.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: To inform form the agent-based model?

KENICHI SOGA: Yeah, for the agent-based models. Yes, yes.

LOUISE COMFORT: We’re actually looking at the network of people and managers and the communication between the people and how that is communicated actually to the managers of, say, the traffic system, who sets the traffic lights, and which direction? When the roads are closed, how is that information communicated to the people?

So this is the sociotechnical aspect of a digital twin, recognizing that the roads are fixed, but people can change their minds and they can redirect and go in a different direction if the communication is there. So it’s communications and traffic. And it becomes a dialogue between the two.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you all. Wonderful presentations. I have a question for Kenichi.

So your SNCC proposal was about Alameda and Marin. And so you’ve transferred that knowledge down to Southern California. So I’m just curious.

I have maybe two questions. In terms of modeling what’s going on in Southern California, were there variables that you had to consider that you weren’t expecting? So what came up as different– as the most prevalently different from your Bay Area modeling? And what is the spin-up time for transferring those models to other places?

KENICHI SOGA: So the first question is currently working on Alameda and Marin. And actually colleagues from El Cerrito, which is a Contra Costa, recently contacted, please include us. So that is a really because fire doesn’t know the boundaries. So that is a very big issue.

And, of course, we have to confine ourselves. So we started with city of Berkeley. We now have LBNL. We now have our campus colleagues, Office of Emergency Services colleagues, coming together and thinking about it. And, of course, we’re trying to expand that to Kensington and the area.

So I think that’s a challenge. But then I’m hoping we go or some of the startups or these colleagues will create a little bit more how to scale up. Yeah, and then our SimCenter also helps to scale that up.

Number 2 is what we see in LA. And here, I think that’s something that we really want to find out more because we find that every locations are different. We see in Palisades that they did do education pretty effectively, but they did say that issues were there. It’s one way out.

But then, typically, if you’re in one way out, people are a little bit more aware of the issues. So it works better. It’s really the Eaton fire was a little bit more sporadic.

Maybe they were not prepared for the wildfire because they’re quite spread. And so we do see that differences. But then I really want to find out why.

And that’s why it’s very important to find the details to get that because I think every fire is going to be different. But it’s a good question that– and it’s really about community understanding that, is that one person you may have a past experience of wildfire.

Sometimes, the issue is that they think that’s the case. It’s going to happen again, but that may or may not be the case. So realizing that is very important. Sorry, I’m maybe talking too much.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: It’s interesting.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: So I appreciate all of your presentations. And what I wanted to ask about is– so Berkeley has extreme fire weather and suggests people to pre-evacuate. Trying to get people to pre-evacuate– ooh, that’s hard.

OK, we did, but a lot of people didn’t. But what I’m wondering is, do you simulate in your simulations– because you were talking about a lot of wind-driven fires. And if we get the spot weather forecast, which Berkeley’s been doing, they say very low humidity predicted, high winds, Diablo winds around here, so please evacuate. Do you ever put that in your simulation in a way to maybe encourages more of that?

KENICHI SOGA: Yeah, that’s a good question, and we would like to. So we are hearing different scenarios that you can think of and trying to see what– would that have an effect?

Maybe your community may have a good effect, but then the other community may not have an effect. Just understanding that a little bit more is an important one to start. And what we want to do is that– maybe City of Berkeley has that particular evacuation notice that we received.

I live in North Berkeley as well, but then maybe the public don’t understand that. But having perhaps, and I’m not sure this is the case, but we start to see that people see the simulations, and they start to say, OK, this may be the case. But having that particular dialogue is important rather than telling that this simulation is true because it is not going to be true because every simulations are different. Yeah, but I think we want to try that. And working with the community is very important.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. I have a question for Professor Gonzalez especially, but if others want to share, too. I’m curious about the fire growth simulations, the optimized simulations that you showed us. I’m curious how feasible it is to be producing those and using those in real time for localities and local fires.

I assume that these might take a while to complete. And also then there’s the issue of– I do work in the rural counties in California, like Plumas, Butte, more rural, that are impacted by fire and don’t have the resources, also local computing resources and would rely on, I’m guessing, like Cal Fire having those resources to then distribute that information. So I’m curious just whether those can be used in real time and what the feasibility of that is.

MARTA GONZALEZ: Yes, that is what brought me to the topic. I said, if there is so much computation, we got to be doing better than this. And then I discovered that the accuracy, meaning the physics of the models, to make– just the physics of fire is a whole complex work in itself.

Then, I refer to Michael Goldner, Kenichi’s collaborator. That type of problem is the frontier in terms of the research. To make it more for operational purposes, real a decision-making, it would be these semi-empirical models.

And right now, with my students, we just make the search of what are the existing models. And the existing models are Farsite, Prometheus, you name it. Every country has its own. And it was built long ago.

So the idea was, OK, let’s do our own. It’s open-source, and let’s improve from that. Then, it brings us to one sobering realization that is high-resolution wind injection. Wind data. What we call data ingestion is limited. So I believe one of the main components is the good high resolution of wind, is one big limitation to make real-time meaningful because you can do a video game, a movie, but it is not accurate. Then ingesting wind in high resolution is one frontier that we would like to. And that brings CCRM, our center, with a new initiative in campus that is the Environmental Data Science Center.

LOUISE COMFORT: Exactly.

MARTA GONZALEZ: That would be the idea. So it’s a social good problem. And what I realize is not going to be done, let’s say, by Google.

The technology is there– we need to be aiming into that. And I believe in a public university like Berkeley it could be done. It’s not there yet.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Great. Thank you. One quick follow-up. How long do those optimize– how long does it take for you to get those simulations? What is the actual computing time?

MARTA GONZALEZ: –just behind you?

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Are you referring to those simulations? Running those simulations don’t take that much time. And so they’re definitely able to be run in real time. I will say in a matter of minutes.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK, great.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you for great presentations. One topic that hasn’t come up here that’s quite in the public mind is insurance. And from, I guess, beyond the governance level.

So perhaps could one of you comment about the direction that discussion is going in, and who might know where the next catastrophic wildfire is going to occur in California in a probabilistic sense? Is it somebody like First Street or the risk– the analysts with their proprietary models, quite in contrast to the wonderful open-source models that you’re presenting here, which are very, shall we say, propagation models rather than general risk models that a real estate insurer might use?

So maybe start with the provocative part of the question. Who knows where the– in a probabilistic sense, where the next catastrophic wildfire will occur in California? And what do we do about it?

LOUISE COMFORT: I’ll respond to that because I’ve interviewed an awful lot of fire chiefs in California. The fire Chiefs know that there are certain areas that burn repeatedly. Malibu that burned in the Palisades fire burned in 1993 in three-four different times.

The fire chiefs know that it’s the combination of the geographic terrain, the fuel, and the winds that come. So they are making investments in mapping those areas. And this is where the select– Kenichi mentioned this, and also Marta, and Chris.

The selective, for instance, undergrounding of power lines might be a good strategic decision. But I will say that CAL FIRE has invested in the last five to seven years enormous amounts of money in modeling equipment and training their own personnel to do this. The difficulty is that there is a direct, almost one-to-one correlation by the increase in emissions and the increase in the size and ferocity of the fire.

The critical issue that we can change, and this is social action, is literally reducing the number of emissions that go into the air. And framing that as an issue, Chris, is a public policy issue. And so this is why addressing this problem of increasingly exponential wildfire is a interdisciplinary inter-jurisdictional issue.

And we have to do it smart. We have to do it recognizing that we’re dealing with a very complex set of interconnected systems. And this is why I think the University of California, with campuses across the state, is in an excellent position to do this. But it’s not going to be easy, and it’s not going to be fast, and it’s not going to be soon.

KENICHI SOGA: Chris, do you want to talk about insurance issue? That’s a big issue.

CHRIS ANSELL: Well, one thing I’ll say about insurance because I have been following a little bit is that the FAIR Plan– the FAIR Plans are the last-resort plan. I lost my insurance this year, by the way, in my house.

The FAIR Plans basically were driven bankrupt by this. Or they can’t fulfill the claims because of the LA fires. And what the state did was it allowed the FAIR Plans to basically– I guess it’s– what do they call it? Not meta insurance but reinsurance.

Basically, the FAIR Plans could take $1 billion from other insurers in the state, who are set up in the state. And I think you can maybe see some– one of the implications of that is we’re all going to be paying for the LA fires. Yeah.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: [INAUDIBLE] produce this?

CHRIS ANSELL: Yeah. I don’t know that, but it’s a good question. Yeah.

LOUISE COMFORT: I will say one of the members of our team, Steven Collier in Urban and Regional Planning, has focused on insurance. And his basic quick assessment is private insurance is almost going to be gone in California. And that’s a really difficult thing. So looking at alternative plans and the FAIR Plan, publicly supported is one of those.

KENICHI SOGA: Yeah, that’s the next workshop, I think, which is a very big one.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: –much for bringing this to us. I have a question. So Louise, you mentioned almost in passing, but as a take, something very obvious, we need to reduce emissions. And this is the elephant in the room as there’s something that the models are maybe taking for granted, which is– I’m curious what you all do with the fact of the driving causes of those winds that mean that all bets are off, or of climate change, these changing conditions.

And so I’m not– I’m assuming that this is very much on all of our minds. There’s one question one could ask of like, well, the governance issue is how do we put pressure on Exxon and fossil fuel companies. And that was part of the blame game.

Actually, some community– some affected folks are trying to sue some of the fossil fuel companies and name them as the responsible parties. So there’s a governance question there with the blame game. That’s probably the one blame game to be played.

But I’m just curious, and from where you all sit and the expertise you bring to the table, where does that conversation– what input is that into the simulations? Are you taking for granted that things are just going to get worse and the winds are going to get worse? Or how do you factor this very messy political world into this story? And I ask that, having just read that Trump just agreed with–

MARTA GONZALEZ: Yes, actually, I like to quote Dan Kammen from ERG in this topic. And it is that a housing policy is a climate policy. And what the data is telling us, why the areas burn is getting worse is the drought. So we have drought, and then is– fuel is worse and that’s why it’s getting worse.

However, interestingly, we cannot continue building at risk. That’s why I like to put our cities in the international context. The model of land use development that we have in the US and particularly in California, that this low dense that we all love is not sustainable.

And then, right now, even CARB, California Air Resources Board, is funding a call for proposals that brings housing policy with vehicles miles traveled. So we need to reduce vehicle miles travel, and that means sustainable transportation, but even how far we need to travel. And California is aware of that marriage.

And then, housing policy is a climate policy. And we are now being affected by the fires. So it’s all intertwined.

KENICHI SOGA: I’m not trying to promote our work, but then I think we can really go to the details to model what you see in a climate change model right now. So I’m hoping– Stephen Collier is a great example. He doesn’t believe on models that we do, but then he creates different ideas and said, wow, that’s interesting. Maybe we can model that and see how that goes.

[LAUGHTER]

So it allows us to do that right now, I think. And so I think Stephen starts to see maybe what we do maybe link to what he’s thinking. And that’s what we see in this project. But probably before the project, maybe he did believe at all what we’re doing.

So I think that’s where we can have an interesting discussion on what can be integrated if we can because there are lots of interesting ideas that come from you that we may want to think about. And Louise has been very promoting, yes, I can do it in the communication style. So we need a model to put it in that. Of course, the model may not be correct, but then at least we try.

LOUISE COMFORT: Thank you. I’m looking at the clock. It is 1:30. Others may have other appointments.

If there’s any last question, you might ask any one of us. But I really want to thank all of you for coming. And I’ll ask one big favor.

Keep this in your mind. Start thinking about it. We need an innovative approach to deal with these increasingly catastrophic risks. And the one thing that we can change is how we think and act about risk. So let’s– please join me in thanking–

[APPLAUSE]

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[WOMAN’S VOICE] Thank you for listening. To learn more about Social Science Matrix, please visit matrix.berkeley.edu.

 

Authors Meet Critics

Society Despite the State: Reimagining Geographies of Order

Presented as part of the Authors Meet Critics event series

Recorded on February 10, 2025, this “Authors Meet Critics” panel centered on the book Society Despite the State: Reimagining Geographies of Order, by Gerónimo Barrera de la Torre, Assistant Professor of Geography at UC Berkeley, and Anthony Ince, Senior Lecturer (Associate Professor) in Human Geography at Cardiff University and British Academy Mid-Career Fellow.

Professor Barrera de la Torre was joined in-person to introduce the book, and Professor Ince presented remotely. The authors were joined in conversation by Dylan John Riley, Professor of Sociology at UC Berkeley, and Anna Stilz, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley. Jake Kosek, Associate Professor of Geography at UC Berkeley, moderated.

The Social Science Matrix Authors Meet Critics series features lively discussions about recently published books authored by social scientists at UC Berkeley. For each event, the author discusses the key arguments of their book with fellow scholars. These events are free and open to the public.

The panel was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Department of Geography, the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science, the UC Berkeley Department of Sociology, and the Center for Interdisciplinary Critical Inquiry.

About the Book

The logic of the state has come to define social and spatial relations, embedding itself into our understandings of the world and our place in it. Anthony Ince and Gerónimo Barrera de la Torre challenge this logic as the central pivot around which knowledge and life orbit, by exposing its vulnerabilities, contradictions and, crucially, alternatives.

“Society Despite the State” disrupts the dominance of state-centred ways of thinking by presenting a radical political geography approach inspired by anarchist thought and practice. The book draws on a broad range of voices that have affinities with Western anarchism but also exceed it. This book challenges radicals and scholars to confront and understand the state through a way of seeing and a set of intellectual tools that the authors call ‘post-statism’ In de-centring the state’s logics and ways of operating, the authors incorporate a variety of threads to identify alternative ways to understand and challenge statism’s effects on our political imaginations.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the event below or on Apple Podcasts.

Transcript

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WOMAN’S VOICE: The Matrix Podcast is a production of Social Science Matrix, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Berkeley.

CORI HAYDEN: Welcome to the Social Science Matrix and to this fantastic panel. My name is Cori Hayden. I’m the director of Matrix for this semester. I want to say that it’s been a hard week in social science world with the loss of Michael Burawoy. And I think it’s fitting and in fact, rejuvenating and energizing to have this panel fortuitously lined up for today, that’s really going to push us to think how things could be otherwise. To think about a politics far beyond the terms that normally define our politics and our critical vocabularies about politics.

You’ll hear more about that in a second. But I just want to say I’m really glad that we are gathered here today for this particular panel. And let me just say a few words. The panel, of course, is one of Matrix’s Author Meets Critics sessions, and we are delighted to celebrate and talk about the 2024 book, Society Despite the State, Reimagining Geographies of Order.

We’ll be discussing that book with the authors Geronimo Barrera de La Torre from UC Berkeley Geography and Anthony Ince from Cardiff University. He’ll be joining us on Zoom. We will be joined for commentary by Dylan Riley and Anna Stilz, and Jake Kosek from Geography will be moderating, and he will introduce the panelists in a bit more detail.

Today’s event is co-sponsored by geography, political science, and sociology departments and the Center for Interdisciplinary Critical Inquiry. So thank you to all of our partners in this event. And I want to thank our amazing Matrix staff also. Chuck Kapelke, Sarah Harrington, and Eva Seto, who already have and will continue to make this event run smoothly.

Before I turn it over to panelists, I want to briefly mention a few other upcoming events for the spring semester at the Matrix. And as you can see, we have a couple Matrix On Point events. Los Angeles wildfires, something on virtual realities, mainstreaming psychedelics, colonizing Palestine, and other book panel. Please do check out the Matrix website and all your socials for further details.

And I get the easy job of standing up here and taking credit as if these are my events, but I want to thank Marianne Fourcade and Ambrosia Shapiro, who really helped put together– actually, in fact, did put together the programming for this semester.

All right, without further ado, let me turn things over to our fantastic moderator, Jake Kosek of the Geography Department at Berkeley. Jake’s research focuses on the intersections of nature, politics, and difference, drawing on geography, anthropology, and history.

He explores how cultural, racial, and national dynamics shape environmental politics with a particular emphasis on the politics of natural history and its role in shaping social and ecological systems. Without any further, I will now turn over the panel to Jake. Thank you so much.

JAKE KOSEK: Welcome, everyone. It is a remarkable moment for this panel. It’s like this panel was planned a long time ago. And to think about just the radical transformations of the state in the last couple of weeks and also what they make visible the structures of the state, what it looks like, how it might be working, how it might be working differently. The questions that are directly related to the book in some ways.

Also what the book holds is also the possibilities of other geographies. And the moment where we try to figure out as things are shifting and new forms and threats of state power emerge, the desire to find, and identify, and build alternative geographies couldn’t be more timely. And so two central themes of the book, I think, are just right at the tip of all of our minds and in this current moment.

A couple of things. I’m not going to go on long commentaries. I have lots of questions. But if there’s moments towards the end, I will start asking some of those. But I want to get to the questions and really wanted to center it on all of you. But just say two things really quickly.

One is the remarkable collaboration that goes on here. This book is a 10-year project. We don’t do that many 10-year projects, and you don’t do them so deeply collaborative in a way that the voice of the book is actually one voice. It is a collective voice, and you can see and feel it as you read the book.

The conversations that have gone on, the tensions and differences in the voice. There’s moments where it’s more open, where they point to different directions they could go. But also moments where the voice of the book is so clearly in one voice. That is a remarkable thing that happened over a very long period of time.

Another thing that just to mention, that the panelists hit some of the main themes, but other things you mentioned that really stands out to me is just the multiple voices around the state and anarchy here. When we think about anarchy, and they mentioned this very directly in the introduction.

As such, having such a Western European history, and to open that up is remarkable. It’s not just that it’s opened up here, but the voices and the citations and the engagements are global in a way that makes this conversation really quite remarkably different than the conversations we often have around state, capital, anarchism.

And I think that those pieces, just for those who haven’t read the full book or don’t know where it’s coming from, those two things I wanted to mention because both that collaboration and that sense of where are the conversations emerging from, and who they’re having conversations with is a different set of people, and I think it’s part of what makes the book really quite different and what it’s saying.

All right. A couple of things. First of all, I am so psyched that Geronimo Barrera de la Torre is here. In Geography, he is one of our newest hires, and we work very hard to get him here, and I’m very excited that he is among our faculty. He’s already changing the feel of the Department and the focus in the Department, covering a whole new area, bringing really questions of anarchism and a whole bunch of other things, methods into the conversation. So great to have him here.

His interests are really at the intersection of political and historical geographies, political ecologies, critical cartographies. It focuses on really the intersection of land or territory and landscape while engaging in much broader discussions on environmental politics, colonialism, and statism.

His research is grounded. One of the things that really stands out is how grounded his research is and really collaborative methods, not just with other academics, but with the community. And those are long term collaborations also. He’s working in Oaxaca for 10 years.

And so you can see that in his work that he does but also in the methods he uses, social mapping. His videography work is really just really deep and long term engagement with the community members around political issues there, such as forest conservation, agrarian change, social mapping, and his involvement with them around a bunch of political issues in the area.

And also, yeah, the diversity of methods is new. One of his newest projects that I’m really so excited about. I’ve only seen little glimpses of his new cinematography work. His new movie that’s coming out of a documentary, which really looks at this really interesting intersection of international carbon offset markets and the consequences and effects on a rural communities in and around Oaxaca.

It’s a remarkable piece of work, and I think it’s July is its first launch date, or what’s the film festival, or I think there’s something– August, sometime this summer. So keep your eyes open for that.

Anthony Ince is a senior lecturer, associate professor in human geography at Cardiff University and British Academy mid-career fellow there. He is a political and social geographer with particular interest in agency, social movements, and migration. His current research explores the role of civic virtue, citizenship, and dynamics of the far right and anti-fascist struggles.

I know him as a geographer. He is known as one of the long-standing central person in debates around anarchism and anarchist geographies. And so he’s been part of holding that space and creating and remaking that space for quite some time. And he’s also known for his co-leadership of the Cardiff Interdisciplinary Research on Anti-fascism and the Far Right, which is a lot of what he does.

Dylan Riley, who I failed to recognize, even though I know him quite well when I walked in the room today, is a remarkable professor of sociology at UC Berkeley. He studies capitalism, socialism, democracy, authoritarianism in really a broad comparative and historical perspective.

His work as a professor, the students that I’ve sent and taken his classes come back really transformed not just by ideas but also by depth and mode of engagement. A remarkable, a remarkable teacher and has been for quite some time.

His books, many things he’s published in many debates he’s involved in. I mentioned first his book, The Civic Foundations of Fascism in Europe, Italy, Spain, Romania from 1870 to 1945, really argues that fascist regimes arose paradoxically on the basis of strong civil society in the pre-fascist period, which kind of raises some really interesting, tricky questions for us I think, we’ll hear about today.

Also how societies and states count comparative genealogies of census, where he argues that state-centered accounts of unofficial information that census work best where there is an intense interaction between state and civil society kind of paradoxically. Anyway, lots of different works and lots of these engaged in all kinds of interesting debates around state and political economy and beyond.

Anna Stilz, I have never we never met before today, but I’m so excited to have you here. I mean, I was reading about your work. And I was like, oh, my God. This is the perfect person. Who is the person who put this panel together? So as a professor of political science at UC Berkeley. She’s the author of a Liberal Loyalty, Freedom, Obligation and the State, which deals with questions about moral importance of political citizenship and state authority. Again, kind of perfect for being on this panel, her first book.

Her second book, Territorial Sovereignty, A Philosophical Exploration, investigates where there seems to be a good ethical justification for organizing our worlds into systems of sovereignty and territorial states and explores the limits of state, justified power over its territory, how we think about that relationship between state and territoriality and its boundaries.

Professor Stilz is working on a new book project on the challenges that climate change poses on the territorial state system, including climate displacement and the large scale changes in land use and global governance that may be necessary to adapt to this moment of warming climate. Or the state frame is so limited as it’s crossed over with the broad transformations of climate change.

All right. Those are the panelists. It couldn’t be a more tightly thought out group of people. And I’m so excited about today’s debate at Animo. And Anthony, why don’t you want to kick off your presentations and get us going?

Or I should say, sorry, I said that before. They’re going to have a presentation at the beginning here. And then Anna’s going to go, and then Dylan’s going to go after that. And then we’ll open it up to everybody. So that’s the order of the order of things. OK. Excuse me. Geronimo, please.

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: No, no, no. Well, thank you so much, Jake, for the introduction. Thank you, Annie, Dylan, for being here and for taking your time to bring this work. And also thank you for those who make this happen. And here also at Social Science Matrix, thank you so much.

So we’re really looking forward to this discussion to talk to your questions and afterwards, your questions as well. For this first minutes, we really want to make just a few comments on the main ideas around this book. But I will start also talking about how this project came about.

Mostly, yes, as Jake, the idea was to make something collaborative. And from the beginning, this project was thought as a collaboration from very different perspectives as Anthony’s in a, well, a different country obviously but comes from a different perspective in geography than mine, that I was trained at then first in Mexico and then in the US.

And so we have very different perspectives. And we met in 2013 in a conference, in a sessions about anarchist geographies. And I remember that I wrote back to Anthony after we met that session. And just, I was very interested in what he was doing, and he was telling me that he was also interested in what I was presenting at that time.

So then we start this collaboration, and we start working on different texts that we published later as a paper and also chapters. I’m trying to take different aspects of this idea around the post-test autism geographies.

And so we were trying to really fill this gap in, we’ll say, in political geography but in geography in general, about the role of the state in our discipline. But drawing from different perspectives mostly first and anarchism with frameworks, but also from anti-authoritarian perspectives and broader ideas.

And so we were trying to draw from our strengths, from our different perspectives in what is geography and what are the voices about the critique of the state of statism. So we start to develop these themes and these ideas, in these different texts.

And then we decided that we were ready to go for the book as a way of commenting not only in the discipline we’re starting to go and to have at the center of the geographical imaginations. How this state defined how we understand not only the discipline of geography but also territory, place, cartography, et cetera in a broader perspective of the politic and geographical imaginaries in our daily lives.

And so this is what we want to talk about with you today. And one of the critical questions of this book is why this? The state remains central to our understanding of the territory. Why is fundamental ideas of order come from the idea of the state, but also how the state remains a neutral vessel for good or bad governments, but also represents like the pinnacle of this political evolution of human societies, or as well, logical progression in the development of a complex and large societies.

So all these what we call myths that remain in question and challenge and are ingrained in the ideas of social territorial organization. Also, the idea of this book was to bring different voices about the critique of the state, not only from anarchist geographies, but also from this broader perspective of anti-authoritarian.

And the idea is to bring together these two different sensibilities that we call it, to weave them together into a radical geography of understanding the state and these logics. Because we thought that anarchism in a way is part of a very large, or we’ll say, a large family of anti-authoritarian perspectives that share these ideas around vertical organization of order.

So we thought it was necessary to decentralize also the ideas of what is anarchism and also considered the plurality of anarchism. So we were trying to decenter not only the idea of the state but also the idea of the critiques about the state.

So the book reflects that the role of the state needs to be called into questions instead, as a contingent religion institution, like the modern state, and a self-referential framework defining modes of knowing and mode of being.

So this book is an investigation into how states shape our understanding of the world, how they acquire the symbolic and material power to do so, and what and how ways of being and knowing help us to rest ourselves from its narrow conception of what life ought to be.

I would say just a few words as well about my work aside from this project because I think it’s important in how I’m approaching this project with Anthony. I mostly work with communities in Oaxaca, communities in the Indigenous Chatino and peasant communities.

And we have been working from more than a decade together in different projects. But in a way, it has been a way to documenting the history of this place and these communities, understanding the internal colonialism and the different strata of this history of colonialism in this place in Oaxaca.

But more importantly, it’s been an opportunity for me to learn many ways in which I was taught geography and also to learn from and with community members, to really understand how intricate, how complex is the relationship with the state from these communities.

I will say, for example, the role of the commons in reimagining the world, but also how this is not something fixed. This is not something that is natural to communities. It’s always that it’s changing and remaking their own world. So in a way, this relationship with the state is based on this possibility to bring new futures for themselves and not just community against the state.

And that way, I think it’s also how we’re approaching here and trying to really decenter the idea. We’re not trying to define what is a state. We’re more interested in the place-based analysis and how different communities have related and challenged, avoided, disregard the state in many, many ways. So I will now turn to Anthony, and I will finish this presentation later.

ANTHONY INCE: So first of all, Thank you very, very much for having me and for doing all the tech work to make this possible. I couldn’t quite justify the carbon footprint of traveling all the way to literally the other side of the world to be here, but I’m so glad I am, even though it’s the middle of the night here.

So thank you also for the very, very generous introduction. In the UK, we’re always very self-deprecating. So it’s nice to have an American welcome in that regard. So I want to just build on some of the things that Geronimo has introduced by diving a little bit more into some of the central themes of the book.

And although this is a long process of writing, and thinking, and discussing together, kind of a low and slow kind of thing, this book isn’t like an endpoint as such. It’s really an introduction, a statement of purpose.

So we start the book with a slightly provocative question, which is what if the state had never existed? How would we act? How would we think? How would we make sense of our shared world differently? And this isn’t just a hypothetical question asked for fun. Counterfactual thinking like this can help us open up other ways of being.

And the state is so central to dominant ways of seeing the world. But if it had never existed though or perhaps was only one idea among many broadly equal ones, would almost inevitably think about the world and our place in it quite differently. So that’s the project we’re trying to come across here.

We’re trying to descend to the state from its position as the pivot around which our political and geographical imaginaries orbit. I was explaining this to somebody recently, and I sort of accidentally came out by saying, the book tries to understand how the state becomes ordinary, or regular, or uninteresting, so we can make it feel strange again. And I think the idea of making the state feel strange is something that’s quite significant to what we’re doing here.

So we’re not asking, like Geronimo says, a definitional question, what is a state? We’re talking more about its logics. And when we’re talking about logics, and we’re really interested in what we mean by this is the repeated rationalities and repertoires of order developed and reproduced over time that produce a thing called the state, a kind of equality of stateness.

The state in this regard is sort of an effect of a set of operational logics, not the logics themselves. Now, these do have real life effects. It’s no coincidence that many states, especially modern ones, have arrangements of similar or at least kind of equivalent kinds of institutions.

And the empirical study of these state institutions and how they functions is absolutely essential. We’re just trying to do something a little bit different here. So what our book is trying to do is think through these logical foundations of what we broadly call statism, that’s expressed through a whole wide range of everyday frames, be they cultural, social, cosmological, that incorporate the state but also massively exceed it.

And we take this deliberately expansive gaze because we argue at least, it needs to be expansive if we’re to take seriously. The multiple and often contradictory effects of statism, of states but also far beyond them as well.

So we’re quite critical of the state, but the book isn’t specifically a critique of the state. We’re not saying this is why the state is bad, and we should definitely get rid of it. We’re more interested in how it maintains its order over time and across multiple contexts and how it maintains its imaginative centrality amidst the many problems and crises which it faces and in many regards, may be unable or unwilling to resolve substantially.

So we think about this by considering how the state becomes ordinary. And we call this ontologization. The process of rendering the state is kind of just there. It just is. Not unlike something like Mark Fisher’s capitalist realism.

So through this thinking, we start to make sense of how the state becomes ordinary, unremarkable, and so on. But through this process, crucially, we actually spend most of the book writing about that. But through this, we also try to tease out some of its dissonances, its contradictions, its gaps, rips, bumps, and kind of frayed edges of what we call the statist fabric. And we use metaphors of fabric, and thread, and weaving right the way through the book.

It’s almost kind of very basic to say that the state doesn’t have a total grip on everything at all times, OK? So what do these gaps and dissonances tell us about other non-state, or in our framing, post statist logics of order? A lot of people have written on similar topics, but we’re particularly interested in the logics and rationalities, the ways of doing things rather than the specific outcome.

So we work with contemporary and historical sources. Geronimo has taught me an awful lot about historical work, which I’m not well trained in until we met. But we often focus particularly on accounts from below and at the margins of state societies. And these are generally really where the state touches people’s lives, either on the one hand, most violently, or on the other hand, not very much at all. And often, a kind of an awkward combination of the two.

So these kind of examples don’t just expose how fragile perhaps statist logics can be, but also demonstrate that alternatives are already living among us and can help us to triangulate what we’re particularly focused on is affinities that can be found across very different contexts, cosmo visions, and so on.

So importantly, rather than sort of capital P political alliances, which often rely on quite straightforward sort of ideological alignments or misalignments, we look to affinity between logics of order that can perhaps highlight points of solidarity across this anti-authoritarian family that Geronimo mentioned that might otherwise go unnoticed.

So I’ll just finish off briefly. Ultimately, we might not all want to abolish the state. In fact, probably most of the people in the room don’t. But even if we’re wanting to make the state better, we won’t get very far if we’re only or mostly looking to the logics of statism for inspiration, OK? So we’re looking to abolish the centrality of the state in how we look at the world because it severely limits our imaginations.

So in a context, the contemporary political context where we find complexity, and uncertainty, and fragility, becoming a more and more pronounced aspect of daily life, of political life, of social life, we suggest that, and I quote, which logics of order will emerge through this is a pressing question of our moment. So our book is a sort of a small contribution to perhaps responding to that question. So back to Geronimo.

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: OK. Thank you so much. Well, I just want to finish this presentation just to talk to you about the sections, how the book is organized. And as Anthony mentioned, we use some metaphors or ideas about weaving and threads.

So the first section is titled Threads and is trying to work on these connection, trajectories, tension, and conflicts among the different experiences that we refer to against and about the state, but also the shortcomings in conventional frameworks exploring the multiplicity, the plurality of ways of being despite the statism, and then the reflections on the state as an integrated fabric, transversing and conjoining the different forms of hierarchy and domination. And then we explore this idea of myths that have been crucial for us to understand this idea of post-statism and the statism idea.

So the idea is to this aestheticism is defined by myths that are the pillars that define this logic. And so we divide this section, which is I think is the core of the book in a way, in three sections. One is time, nature, and order.

And so we’re interested in this statist time scapes, the normative frameworks that delineate our lives through linear evolution is determinist time scapes. But trying to also bring other temporalities, other ways in which experiences in the past and in the present, the time has been thought differently. And what it makes us think about the contingency and fragility of the state and its logics.

Then nature helps us to criticize it, to really engage into the naturalization of the state and how it brings this– well, we try to go in depth into the relationship, but this patriarchal tendencies, patriarchal framework, and the divide between nature and civilization that has been carefully policed through the statist logics.

And then order. We try to question how states impose this particular order and how state logic saturates the meaning of order [INAUDIBLE] in the multiple orders that do not conform with these logics or use instrumentally and strategically elements of it.

And finally, we end up with the idea of horizons in trying to bring and contribute to the pathways of interrogating and taking seriously the role of the state in our geographical imaginations and expand the dialogue about the logics that sustain these logics. Sorry. To sustain the statism. And finally, we try to bring some ideas, not only the academic work or outside the academic work, as part to destatize our geographical imaginations. Thank you.

JAKE KOSEK: Thank you. That was great. So we’re going to start off with Anna. You want to start us off for the first commentary?

ANNA STILZ: Sure, great. So thanks very much for inviting me to be part of the event. I should also explain that, I’m going to have to leave a little bit early, and I apologize for that. I just have to go pick up my daughter from after school.

So yeah. I was very engaged by this book, and I really enjoyed having the opportunity to read it. So society, despite the state, offers a pretty strong and searing critique of the state as the dominant form of political order in the contemporary world. And it also gives us a plea to consider and take seriously alternative kinds of political futures that might be inspired by various anarchist traditions, particularly local, self-organized, cooperative practices like mutual aid organizations, for example, and also other kinds of non-state communities that are structured by different bonds, like bonds of kinship or family.

So I, in my previous writings, have had a little bit more sympathetic take on the state than the authors do. And that probably is why I was invited to be a commentator. But I’m afraid I’m going to disappoint a little bit because I actually think anarchism is very interesting, and I’ve always thought it was a tradition that’s very much worth taking seriously.

And I think we should consider the question of whether a non-state society ultimately would be a more ideal society, whether it would better realize democratic values like freedom and equality than even the most democratic state that we can imagine.

I think that’s a question worth thinking hard about. And as a higher ideal that we might aspire to achieve, an anarchist society has always seemed to me kind of attractive. But my role here is to be a critical commentator. So I’m going to just mention four questions that I have about the book. So I just want to signal like I’m not as one might think in some fundamental ways.

So my first question is just that while most of the book was critical of the state, and Anthony actually said this wasn’t a question that they wanted to engage, but it was a question I had. I wanted to get a better sense of what institutions count for the authors as a state.

So it’s very clear that sort of modern Iberian European nation states are definitely like paradigmatic cases of the state. And it’s also clear that things like a local mutual aid society is not a state. But in between these two kinds of very clear cases, it seem to me there are a lot of other things that might or might not be a state, and I wasn’t sort of sure.

So for example, I mean, I think of the modern European state as emerging around 1,500 or so. But the authors do discuss like archeological findings about the earliest states that emerged 3,000 years BCE. So there are some pre-modern formations that the authors are at least willing to countenance as states.

But they strike me as completely different from the Iberian nation states that we’re familiar with. So I just wonder, like some liminal cases, what the authors would say. So Ancient Athens, this is a direct democracy based on a highly restricted, highly inegalitarian citizenship. But it doesn’t have a lot of features that we might associate with the modern state, like centralized bureaucracy. It’s a direct and not a representative democracy. So I’m not sure if it’s the state or not.

I thought also of the Haudenosaunee Confederacy that organized the five nations in what is now New York prior to European arrival. They governed the Mohawk and the Oneida, Onondaga, Cayuga, and Seneca peoples. Would that be a state? The Aztec or Inca Empires, would that count, or China under the Ming Dynasty? There’s just a lot of political forms, and I’m not sure if they’re states or not.

So I’m not sure if the authors are arguing only against the modern Ibarian nation state, kind of European nation state and post-colonial state, or they’re arguing against a y-intercept of political forms. So that was my first question.

My second question is I’d like to hear more about exactly what features of states are objectionable. Like it’s clear that the authors object to the states, and I think they object based on a variety of different things. The hierarchy, inequality, centralization, and coercion are all things that they find objectionable.

But I wonder. So modern states, they characteristically feature a set of binding procedures by which to make decisions for everybody in a territory. Sometimes but not always, those procedures extend some democratic rights to the people that are subject to those decisions.

But modern states also typically feature a centralized, hierarchical, often bureaucratic apparatus that coerces people to obey those decisions. We could imagine a polity though that did feature binding democratic processes that everyone in a territory was expected to comply with but that didn’t have a bureaucratic coercive apparatus.

Maybe the ordinary citizens of this policy would polity would enforce the rules themselves maybe through social pressure, or ostracism, or other kinds of informal sanctioning practices. And I’m just not sure if that would be objectionable in the same way that a state is or not for the authors. So I’d like to hear more.

So that’s my second question. I have a total of four. So I’m halfway through. My third question is that the authors sometimes speak as though all the bad stuff that states have done is like constitutively and definitionally part of the state.

So states are said to require an outside in the form of borders to citizenship and to exclude and other the people who are outside in ways that cast them as unclean, and threatening, and unruly, and oppress them. States are also said to inevitably engage in cultural assimilation to homogenize kaleidoscopic, pre-existing cultures. Colonialism, displacement, and removal are also said to be conceptually part of the state.

So I don’t disagree that there have been and often have been settler states, exclusionary states, assimilationist states. But I wondered whether there could also be anti-colonial states, multicultural states, maybe even states with open borders. Would those formations be possible or not?

And it seemed like for the authors, that there would be some constitutive or conceptual feature of the state that made those possibilities impossible, rule them out. And I also felt like while the authors valorize local self-organized communities, there have also been lots of local communities that were pretty exclusionary to outsiders. There have been groups that have been based on kinship ties that have engaged in what we might think of as quasi-colonial practices, conquering and subordinating, expropriating other neighboring groups.

So I kind of wondered, is the state ultimately a neutral institutional form that could be used for good purposes or for bad purposes, and local communities as well, like could be good ones and bad ones? So one example that I wanted to consider was the US state during the period of reconstruction after the Civil War.

This is a state that went into local communities in the US South and very forcibly interfered in their internal self-organized processes, and I’m not inclined to think that was a bad thing. I’m inclined to believe that a little more interference was necessary. The state did not interfere enough. It withdrew before the job was done. So I’m open to thinking that there’s some kinds of state action and interference that’s actually ultimately good.

And my last question is when I think about the contemporary world, I wonder if we need the state to achieve certain important and progressive aims. There’s always been a strong set of left traditions, from unions and social democratic parties to Marx and also Lenin, that argued that the left needs to take control of the levers of state power in order to achieve its aims.

And I’m thinking here about goals like the large scale redistribution of wealth, the taming of corporate power, the control of artificial intelligence, and the resolution of the climate crisis. How are these aims to be achieved in our society if not by harnessing the power of the state to dislodge the organizing and wealthy interests that often block progress and to enforce policy on these fronts?

Now, it’s definitely true that the state can and often has served as a protector for elite interests. I don’t want to deny that, but I think it’s also true that the state can be and sometimes has been harnessed by mobilized popular democratic majorities in the interests of socially just ends.

And doing that requires major investments in political organizing to build popular power. But I think the state’s regulatory, and planning, and coercive capacity is going to be necessary to transform the world in the service of these kinds of progressive aims. Because the state is the only organization we have that can plan and carry out these kinds of large scale social initiatives, like providing public health care, education, as I said, redistributing wealth, building a resilient climate infrastructure, and so on. It’s hard for me to imagine that we’re going to decarbonize the world economy in the next 20 or 30 years by relying on self-organized mutual aid collectives.

So I think that’s why the Marx and Lenin argued that the working class needs to seize the state and wield its coercive capacities to reshape society. I think a proposal to get rid of the state here and now might not usher in a kind of world of equal freedom for all. It might just usher in the domination of the richest and most powerful among us and the organized corporations that dominate so much of our life.

So unless we remake society and probably do so using the coercive power of the state, I think getting rid of the state is just going to leave ordinary folk potentially prey to forces of private oppression. So I’ll stop. Thanks.

[APPLAUSE]

DYLAN JOHN RILEY: Yeah. OK. So thanks a lot for sharing the book. And I have many of, I guess, my reactions are very similar to Anna’s. But I did also want to start off with a real appreciation of the project of the book. I think it’s actually very important for people in academia but also just outside of academia, on the left and among progressives, to think about anarchism, to think about radical critique of the state, to think about the notion of a political order beyond the nation state.

I think that’s often, I think the political imaginary of the left is impoverished by not being able to imagine a political order that goes beyond the state. I also have to say that I really liked the composition of the book with these kind of alternating sort of analytic sections and then these little intermezzos.

I especially appreciated the discussion of Asterix the Gaul. That was great. It was sort of the little village as this sort of image of the stateless society that was very evocative and appreciated that very much. But yeah. So I guess I too have some questions that I’ll just raise, and you can see if these are useful or not useful and you’re thinking about it.

So I guess the first question I had in a way is similar to Anna’s question. In a way, I’m just wondering who the target of the critique that is being developed is at times in the book. At one point, you describe a view that suggests that the modern liberal state is an inevitable endpoint of a process of social or social evolution.

But I was just thinking kind of analytically, I mean, if you think about the classics of political sociology, it’d be hard to argue that a Weber, or a Hintze, or a Perry Anderson, or Charles Tilly or even [INAUDIBLE] writing on Latin America, would see the idea of the modern state as the unfolding of this kind of telos.

I mean, their work, it strikes me, is very much about contingency, non-evolutionary thinking in a lot of ways, and particularly within the Iberian tradition, a rejection of the idea. I mean, obviously there’s the idea of a rational state. But for Weber, it’s only instrumentally rational, and that actually, the modern state includes deeply a rational or irrational element that is kind of intrinsic.

It’s intrinsic other side of the rationalization process in the instrumental dimension. So I just wondered like what you guys think about how are you situating yourselves in a relationship to that sort of tradition?

So the second point I was thinking about is the question of contingency. So a number of points in the text, you say that the state is contingent, and the evidence for the contingency is to reference the fact that the state is a recent historical form. But I’m not sure that the evidence that the fact that the state is recent, some 200 years, depending on exactly how we want to date this, let’s say 200, 300 years.

Why would its recency be evidence of its contingency, and its an abnormality in the trajectory of humanity, as you put it at one point? Surely, there must be some reason for why the political form of the modern state is sort of universalized in a certain kind of way. And even its origins, if we want to say the state is of European origin.

But I think you could make an argument that these political forms have developed in a number of different ways. I mean, clearly, one of the reasons that the state emerges is because of this dynamic of war-making, which has its roots really in the European feudalism.

So it is recent but not contingent. I mean, there’s lots of reasons why one would get organizations like the state. So I was just wondering how you guys are thinking about the relationship between the historical argument and the argument about contingency.

Now the third question is a little bit more specific, and it has to do with the issue of colonialism. So you say that the modern state emerged in tandem with colonialism, and that the state and colonialism nurture each other, establishing the boundaries between humans and non-humans, civilized and savage.

But I wonder whether that’s– I mean, as a general matter, I wonder actually about that in the following way. Two sides of this. First of all, were the first colonial states modern states? I would say not, actually. They were basically, with the Dutch, it’s a kind of merchant dominated oligarchy. It’s not really a modern state.

And then in the Iberian Peninsula, these seem to me to be late feudal absolutist states. And that’s actually very important because what really drives them out, in a sense, is the search for solving the problem of the second sons, right? That is to say what do you do when you have limited land, right? And you have to do something with these noble sons?

Then in the British case itself, was colonialism a state project? Perhaps. I mean, it depends on what we think about, how to define a state. But clearly, these merchant companies and the chartered corporations, they were not, although chartered by the crown, they’re not exactly state. I mean, they’re a little bit more like private enterprises.

So I just don’t know exactly. I think maybe some thinking needs to go into actually how we understand the relationship between colonialism and the state. Of course, it’s true that in the later period, there is an infusion. I mean, in the period of classic imperialism. Yes, it’s clear. But of course, in the 19th century, that’s connected to a new kind of new phase of capitalist development.

So I was just wondering, how do you guys think about the relationship between the state formation, colonialism, and the different phases of colonialism to imperialism and that whole set of issues?

Then I guess the fourth question is just about this question of cartography, which is really interesting and lots of really fascinating stuff in the book. It’s very worth checking out. But I wondered, even on this, I mean, in my understanding, I mean, obviously, in some ways, map making has gone along with state formation but not always.

And I mean, even in the case of thinking about the case of the enclosure movement, I mean, it’s important to understand that enclosures in the is my understanding of this anyway. In the British case, this is largely a movement of private actors who are making maps of their estates, which they are then using in the context of cases that are brought before parliament.

But this is really a dynamic, not from below, of course, but it’s a dynamic that comes out of agrarian capitalism as much as it comes out of the state. Or at least that’s my understanding. Maybe I’m misunderstanding this. So how does mapmaking and state-making go together?

The other thing about that I was thinking about this I’d be interested to hear is, of course, the real breakthroughs in cartography are made in Renaissance Italy, which is one of the places with the weakest and least integrated states in all of Western Europe. And it’s very much associated with these kind of merchant oligarchies and so on, which are not particularly modern state-ist in its origins. Of course, later, it’s a different matter. But just how are you kind of thinking about that?

And then I guess the sort of fifth point that I wanted to just ask you about is really to go back and very much resonates with Anna is saying, is that, well, what does this all mean in the light of contemporary politics? I mean, what does it mean to have a radical critique of the state?

I mean, so one thing I would say and this may be a slight point of difference between Anna and myself. I actually think that Marx and Lenin offer a deeply radical critique of the state, that is smash the state. And he’s only after you use it. So you need the state, and then you smash it, right?

So the state, this is, of course, coming out of the civil wars in France and then obviously taken up again in the state and revolution. Lenin’s point is that the anarchists are great. They’re not Kautskians. Great. But they’re like, they’re just missing this little point, which is that you need to use the state before you smash the state.

So how are we going to do that? And then I guess that raises this whole question of this moment that we’re living through now. I mean, I think these guys who are running the US state at this point see themselves as anarchists. And they may be wrong, but I mean, we’re basically, are we not living under a kind of anarcho-capitalist regime? So what do we do about that? Anyway, thank you very much, because it was really a fun read, and I really appreciated your sharing it. Thank you.

JAKE KOSEK: Geronimo and Anthony, do you want to take a couple of minutes now, or what do you want? We have some time for you to respond directly right now, or we can open some questions too.

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: With me or–

JAKE KOSEK: Sure. Why don’t you start?

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: Yeah. OK. Well, I’m going to maybe go around different of these questions because I think there are some of those related. And then maybe Anthony can help me with others. So I want to start just, I think that’s one of the main different perspectives on what to do with the state.

So I will start first about the idea of what is really what we’re thinking about the state here, because we’re really trying to make a framework about the logics, not exactly what the state per se. So that’s how we’re trying to draw not exactly boundaries about a modern state and non-modern state.

Because we saw also in the works that we examined in archeology, for example, in anthropology, that the definition of the state was sometimes anachronistic in the way that through the perspective that of we now define what data state. We’re trying to portray or to make other organizations as a state in the past. But we don’t necessarily know what that mean for them in that moment.

But for us, what we were interested in was the logics around this perspective that were shared across many of these types of states. So that topology we’re not exactly following, but more interested in the vertical and hierarchical coercion that defined many of these types of states.

And for example, with the first question, we were, in one of the chapters, we were quoting some Chinese commentators, thinkers from the ninth century. We see that they were exactly considered by some, arguing around this idea of anarchism because we’re exactly counter to the ideas of the state in China at that moment.

So from that moment, we’re considering that these ideas have been, through the history of when these type of coercive, centralized organization of authority, there is a voice always that is trying to attack these perspectives.

And so for that idea, this is what we are considering also other voices that organize differently. For example, I’m using the example of autonomy in Mexico. But they are using this different organization of their own zones, autonomous zones. And they have their own infrastructure, their own health, their own education. They say Zapatistas, Rojava, et cetera. There have been examples of this that does not require the hierarchies that we are assumed that we need to organize this infrastructural structure.

So yeah. For the need of the state, I mean, I think Anthony will help me more on that. But I think we’re clear in the sense that we’re trying to make the argument that through history, we have been taught that taking control of the state has never come true. Yeah. The dreams of using it for good. And that was, yeah, what anarchist said in the 19th century, and we’re repeating ourselves here today.

Yes. So in a way, I mean, the difference here in the US has been difficult for me to talk about. There is a difference in the genealogy I think of libertarianism and anarchism. So sometimes, and it’s here, it’s here in the US. And this idea of libertarianism as this capitalist ideas of free markets and free private property or not, really get rid of the state.

I don’t think it’s nothing to do with the anarchist perspective. The anarchist is coming from the socialist family in the 19th century, and this is a different and even take, the name of libertarian. Because in Spanish or in French we use libertarian, libertarios, et cetera, as anarchist, as the other far right capitalist perspective.

So I think [INAUDIBLE] for example, has a very interesting book about these projects, mostly the US-based libertarian projects in the Pacific and in Latin America. They are trying to buy territories to implement these ideal places for anarcho-capitalism, which for me is like a really paradoxical, contradictory ideas.

But they also show, is the state is required to make this happen? Because they needed the state to secure that private property, right? They need the state of Guatemala, for example. They need a state in any Pacific area to really secure that rights of this private property. Should I stop here? Yeah. So we have time.

ANTHONY INCE: Sorry. Hello. I would also echo Geronimo’s point about when anarchists, left wing anarchists of the socialist tradition, talk about abolition of the state, We’re not talking about just getting rid of the state and leaving everything else intact. That’s very much the kind of the right libertarian tradition there.

So the anarchist abolition of the state comes with a whole set of other transformations. And those were very much similar kind of transformations that Lenin and co, for example, were trying to do with the state through the state. And I understand in that Russian context, there was definitely a valid argument there, even though it didn’t work out so well for, well, Russian people.

It’s a shame Anna had to go. I wanted also to pick up this definitional question and these questions of obligation, political obligation, which again, is something that actually, in fairness, the anarchist tradition has not really pushed that in ways that it perhaps could or should have done.

But I would highlight, How do we create conditions where people feel politically obliged to act in concert, kind of universally or together? And what kind of sanctioning practices might there be? She used the word sanctioning practices.

And it’s good that Dylan’s here because I’ve read his book or parts of his book on the civic foundations of fascism, which also connects with some of the early, early work that I’m beginning to do on citizenship and the civic.

But there’s quite a lot of empirical evidence and kind of theoretical frameworks that allow us to see political obligation beyond the state. So the work of Mohammed Bamyeh, for example, he wrote this wonderful book, Anarchy As Order, where he talks about the state as actually a kind of a growth on our civic environment.

The state doesn’t create citizenship as a practice, as a social and political obligation to one another. It actually intervenes in those relationships. And so we can’t automatically assume that political obligation is created by the state. And we see this in all kinds of places in civil society, where in fact, actually, the state can disrupt these obligations to one another, not least through the creation and policing of state borders and the various things that happen at them and around them.

So that’s one thing I wanted to pick up on. And also, this matter of large scale infrastructure and public services. We need mass strategic social functions. We need infrastructure, and utilities, and all of these kinds of things. But do we specifically require states to enact them?

Now, states are able to mobilize lots of things very quickly across a large scale. So that is efficient. That is efficient. Is that the right or the best way to do it? Well, that’s up to a kind of wider debate, but I would flag up that in many regards, states have actually taken ideas from below and implemented them as their own.

So in the UK, we have the National Health Service. I don’t want to talk about the US health system slightly more– slightly different, let’s say to the UK, the European model. Well, the National Health Service was modeled. It wasn’t just a wonderful idea that the government came up with.

It was actually modeled on grassroots, very large scale, well-developed infrastructures that were produced, particularly in South Wales among the coal mining communities, where they created a sort of a proto-National Health Service that was then seen by Aneurin Bevan and a number of others in the Labor Party after the Second World War and saw and thought, that’s a great idea. Let’s take it basically. Let’s not steal it. I won’t use the word steal, but let’s take it and claim it as our own.

So alongside these contemporary examples. Rojava, Chiapas, if we want to go James C. Scott, the Zomia Region, for example, there are many examples of autonomous regions. But there are also others that are perhaps less well known about, where people have produced and cooperated and created social goods from below at quite a large scale and high complexity of development.

We also see non-state forms of regulation as well. The international organization for standardization, it’s exceptionally dull, I know. But ISO numbers, you see those ratings on safety and so on. That is global, that is cooperative, that is led by technical expertise, and it’s voluntarily opted into by states but also by businesses, by organizations, and so on. And the ISO is a great example of global non-coercive regulation that really, really works.

So let me have a look at my notes. Was there anything else? Was there anything else that you wanted to come back to?

JAKE KOSEK: So let’s do some questions. If you’d state your name and department or where you’re coming from and address the question.

AUDIENCE: Hi. My name is Jane Mongo, and I’m from the political science department. I’m a PhD candidate. Thank you so much for this. And I think the book is fascinating and interesting. I know very little about anarchism, and this was a good introduction to it.

And so for me, I feel like the most important question that needs to be answered for me to buy the whole argument, or at least begin to buy the whole argument, and you might have addressed it in the book. I’m just beginning to read it, so I might not have gotten to that point.

But I just wonder, what is your understanding of human nature? And I’m asking this because Thomas Hobbes, the most passionate proponent of the state or sovereignty or whatever, they always based it on human nature. They are like it’s chaotic. Like if there’s nothing to rule over them, people will eat each other.

So I guess if, I don’t know if you’ve discussed it. If you could, then maybe you could share that. If you didn’t discuss that, maybe you could also discuss, tell us maybe why you didn’t necessarily see it as relevant.

JAKE KOSEK: Let’s just open with that. The small treatise on that, you can open that. If you can do that in two minutes and like and also really touch on who else has talked about human nature in the state, that’s great. It’s a good question. Which of you two would like to take that one?

ANTHONY INCE: Why not? Let’s give it a shot. It’s a great question. And I think we do attend to that a little bit in the book, this idea of the state of nature, as this world where life is, what is it? Violent, brutal, and short. Which I know has many different iterations. If you look at Rousseau, it’ll be different from Locke and so on.

So we take quite a broad brush stroke on that. And we pull apart that idea as an empirically and also conceptually slightly simplistic, let’s say, way of thinking about human societies. So if you look not just from the anarchist perspective but also others like Protevi, I can’t remember his first name. He wrote this wonderful book called The Ages of the State.

Where in fact, if you look at not just historical examples of non-state societies but also kind of evolutionary psychology, and in many ways, biology as well, that state of nature just doesn’t stand up to empirical scrutiny.

So there’s that empirical side. But we also have, from the anarchist or kind of slightly anarchist leaning area of political theory, we think about human nature in a slightly more open way. I mean, for example, Peter Kropotkin, one of the great anarchist geographers and frankly, one of the best beards I’ve ever come across.

He writes in his final book on ethics, which is unfinished. He died before he finished writing it. He writes about how the human nature is, in many ways, it’s slightly deterministic, and it’s in that slightly kind of Victorian way of thinking of things. But I think there’s a lot of validity to it.

Human nature is not defined fundamentally. We can’t a priori create a kind of an image of what human nature is or isn’t. It is produced, in many regards, it’s a materialist thing. It’s produced through the material conditions where we live. So he bemoans in perhaps his most famous book, Mutual Aid, the many ways in which the cooperative ethic of living has been sort of eroded over time with particularly but not only through the expansion of the state and also capitalistic enclosure of things like commons.

And that, he says, again, it’s slightly deterministic. I don’t fully buy it. But he says that has actually affected what human nature is. So human nature is always becoming. It’s never finished. It’s never complete. And I think that’s probably where I think we would stand. Geronimo, you might say something slightly different there but–

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: Yeah. Just quickly. One of the last book, what’s the name, from David Gabriel? He is examining just these ideas. And he’s exactly saying that no one really reads this text because they are arguing that this is just a model for their argument.

They are never presenting any evidence for that idea of the state of nature. It’s just how they’re trying to argument through these ideas, and they don’t give any evidence of that, aside from what Anthony already said. But even they didn’t think that was the idea.

JAKE KOSEK: I had one in the very back in blue and curly hair. And then back up here.

AUDIENCE: Thanks for the talk. A really sympathetic to the ideas in it. I guess the title of the book makes me think society, despite the state, society itself is also this kind of totality that emerges as a concept alongside the state. And if you think of the Age of Revolutions, it’s all these attempts of society to impose its kind of legislation, autonomy over the state.

And one thing that Marx and Tocqueville say is that they ultimately fail, and the state only gets stronger every time society tries to do that. So I’m just wondering, should an anarchist also be suspicious of the concept of society as well, or is it possible to have a mass society that is autonomous or anarchistic, or is this only a small scale thing?

JAKE KOSEK: You want to take some questions? We have a few minutes. Why don’t we take a couple questions around, and then you guys can kind of pick which ones you want to respond in the short time we have. So I think Cori had one, and there was somebody else in the white shirt there first and then Cori.

AUDIENCE: Hi. Thank you for this wonderful presentation and discussion. My name is Hanna Hilbrandt, and I’m a visiting researcher at the moment in geography, but a professor for social geography normally at the University of Zurich.

I was really fascinated by the arguments, and I kept wondering, how would they be taken in geographies or areas of the world where the state is not as present as we think of it, potentially from here or from Europe, in areas where non-state armed forces or the Pentecostal Church or what have you would be ruling society in much stronger ways.

And so I guess my question is to what extent you’re also engaging with the kind of epistemological critique of Eurocentric views of the state, and to what extent we can just already denaturalize or decenter the state just by reading geographies from other places, potentially Southern places, the majority world.

JAKE KOSEK: We’ll take Cori and then one more, and then you have 5 minutes or so just to answer all these huge questions. An impossible task. There we go. That’s what we set up for you. I’m good at that.

CORI HAYDEN: I think the discussion so far has almost proven the point of your book. One of the biggest points, which is that it’s almost impossible for us to have a discussion without obsessing about the state. The whole discussion has been about the state, and the whole point is to try and think otherwise.

So I want to invite you to tell us about, for example, the radical pluriverse as an alternative formation or something. Just curious about some of the terms that anchor your imaginations otherwise, because we have been very focused on the state when you are joining us to not do that anymore. Thank you.

JAKE KOSEK: There’s one more person back here. Yes.

AUDIENCE: Yes. Hello, I am David Dopazo. I am a diplomat, so I represent the state, working for the French embassy. But I am also a historian and scholar. My question is actually following yours. When you look at all the social movements in Europe, in Western Europe especially, and people fighting to defend the health care system, the pension, the education, even the police and the mean for the police to act, is there not a way from inside to take the state and smash the state, and at some point, the society embracing or most part of the community becoming the state?

And my perspective as an early modernist is always like the society is within the state. And it’s very difficult when– I mean, the question about when the state start was super interesting for that. And my second question is very quick. When you look at the Web3 and all what the blockchain can offer today, do you think there is a digital space for anarchy, or all of that is just all the opportunities for a radical capitalist?

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: Thank you so much.

JAKE KOSEK: Let me give you another 10 if you really want some challenge.

GERONIMO BARRERA DE LA TORRE: I would have some of them and then– OK. Yeah, I would say, first of all, I don’t think there could be a universal set is exactly the idea. I haven’t really place based perspectives on how to organize the territories and the politics in that territory.

So the idea was to try to play with this word exactly because it comes up with the idea of the state. But what we can say about it in spite of it, in trying to, yeah, take that language without state, right?

I would say more about the radical progress that we were trying to bring together these other voices, these other perspectives of trying to organize territories otherwise, in despite, or negotiating, or avoiding the state in any way. We’re trying not to divide or make a stark division between a non-statist or a medium or something like that.

Like we’re trying to bring together those ideas that are struggling to organize themselves in the contradictions that they are already into, right? Because it’s not possible to be outside of it, but yes, to organize within. And that’s why we use despite as the idea.

And one of the things that from, well, from the historical anarchism, that they will always say that solidarity was like a rare resource in this world. And we’re trying that’s why we’re trying to come up with this idea of picking up the different ways in which to build these solidarities among different ways of organizing these territories.

And so you will see these different projects in these territories, how they share ways of organizing through the commons, through horizontal ways of organizing the territories or through different gender organizations, et cetera, noise of knowing nature, ways of constructing knowledge and healing, et cetera, et cetera, is a way to try to see the multiple, the diversity in these ways. Because the state is already diverse, and we’re arguing that through the diversity, how we can really find ways to build these places despite of the state. Yeah.

ANTHONY INCE: Yeah. Really interesting questions. I think the question about areas where the state is not very present is actually really quite significant or not present in the way that traditionally sort of like European, Westphalian model of the state would be.

It comes through actually quite strongly in Geronimo’s work independently of our book as well. So definitely read his articles, and I would defer to his authority heart, if I can use that word. What anchors our imagination? That was a really good question, whoever asked that?

One of the things we work with towards the end of the book is this notion of disregard as a way of navigating between state, non-state/gray areas in between them. Disregard is a sort of it’s not ignoring the state. It’s not pretending that it’s not there. It’s not about hoping that it’ll go away. And it’s not just about evading it at all costs.

Disregard is devaluing. It’s a really conscious word. If you think about what disregard means, it’s really consciously this like decentering or very consciously, sort of touching it very lightly and instrumentally. So we talk about a few examples of disregard towards the state, where people have actually engaged substantially with the state in some cases, but in ways that somehow sort of disrupt its authority, disrupt its centrality.

So one very niche historical example is the IWW, the wobblies in the states. So I’m using an American reference here. Hopefully some people know of them, where they would deliberately fill the local jails and cause utter chaos for these small, small kind of police forces in the kind of farming towns and what have you.

As a political vehicle for or as an opportunity to organize but also as a political vehicle for disrupting the capitalist state that they were challenging. So I think disregard is something I want, I personally at least want to push on a little bit more, as well as this notion of affinity as well.

Affinity, which is slightly different from solidarity. Because solidarity sometimes come with a certain sort of 20th century baggage of it has to be organizations formally constituted and so on. But that doesn’t necessarily connect very well with the way that actually, the reality of solidarity is if anybody reads David Featherstone’s work on solidarity, it really comes across. It’s not just the institutions that are doing the solidarity. It’s actually the people, often in spite of those kind of hierarchical institutions like trade unions, for example.

So one other thing about digital spaces is a huge thing, but I’m old enough to remember to have been sort of politicized around that sort of global anti-capitalist movement around the turn of the millennium.

And during that movement, there was a huge amount of digital innovation taking place among activists, anti-authoritarian activists that were creating logics of organizing digital space in ways that were collaborative, non-hierarchical, open, and so on.

So Indymedia, for example, if people remember that, and actually, the sad thing about it is that these sort of techno Bitcoin bro-types have actually picked up on those logics and have actually appropriated that for hypercapitalist, sort of right libertarian ends. And that was a weakness. That was always going to be a weakness of that in hindsight.

But there are spaces in there that continue to be those digital spaces. I’m not an expert on them, but there’s something there, I think. I think that’s everything from me. We probably haven’t covered half of what Dylan was talking about, but I’m afraid that might just be for another time. It’s half past 1:00 in the morning for me, and I’m ready for bed.

JAKE KOSEK: Anthony, Geronimo, and Dylan, thank you very much. This is obviously the very beginning or continuation of a deeper, longer historical conversation that we’ll keep having. But really thank you for the book and thank you for sharing it with us. It was great. And thank you, Dylan, for thinking with us on it. And thank you all for coming.

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WOMAN’S VOICE: Thank you for listening. To learn more about Social Science Matrix, please visit matrix.berkeley.edu.

New Directions

New Directions in the Study of Fringe Politics

Fringe politics today is highly diverse and dynamic, reflecting the rapid social, technological, and economic changes of the 21st century. While the term “fringe” suggests ideas or movements outside the political mainstream, many fringe ideologies have increasingly influenced, or even reshaped, national and global political landscapes.

Recorded on February 4, 2025, this panel brought together a group of UC Berkeley graduate students from the fields of geography, anthropology, and sociology for a discussion on politics on the fringe through the lens of such topics as QAnon, religious studies, and California secessionism.

The panel featured Josefina Valdes Lanas, PhD candidate in Anthropology at UC Berkeley; Alexis Wood, PhD student in Geography at UC Berkeley; and Peter Forberg, PhD student in Sociology at UC Berkeley. Paul Pierson, Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley, moderated.

The event was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Department of Geography, the Department of Sociology, the Charles and Louise Travers Department of Political Science at UC Berkeley, the Berkeley Economy and Society Initiative (BESI), and the Berkeley Center for Right-Wing Studies.

Podcast and Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING]

WOMAN’S VOICE: The Matrix Podcast is a production of Social Science Matrix, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Berkeley.

CORI HAYDEN: Welcome, everyone. It’s great to see you on this rainy Thursday on a very exciting week on all matters related to our panel. My name is Cori Hayden. I am the interim director of Social Science Matrix, and really delighted to welcome you to this extremely timely panel. The panel is about fringe politics, which seems to be more and more a misnomer.

Fringe politics are no longer confined to the periphery, as we have seen. And this is the case from the rise of QAnon to debates over California secessionism, Catholic theologies that offer a window into the anxieties and aspirations of this very rapidly changing world that we are in.

So today we have gathered an extraordinary panel of UC Berkeley graduate students, our pride and joy on this campus. These are students from anthropology, geography, and sociology to explore the dynamic forces that are driving fringe politics today. Now, this event is part of our new directions series, which features the cutting edge research of Berkeley PhD students.

Today’s panel is co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Departments of Geography, Political Science, and Sociology, the Berkeley Economy and Society Initiative, and the Center for Right-Wing Studies. Now, before I turn it over to our moderator and the panelists, I do want to just give you a quick preview on some events that are coming up.

We have a full slate of really exciting events coming up at the Matrix in the next, well, this whole semester. Next week, a fantastic Author Meets Critic event on the book, Society Despite the State– reimagining geographies of order, a couple of matrix on point events three in a row on wildfires in LA, virtual realities, digital space, and mainstreaming psychedelics, and then some additional Author Meets Critics events, as you can see here.

So I do hope you will continue to join us for what looks to be an action packed semester at the matrix. Let me now introduce our moderator, Paul Pierson. Professor Pierson is the John Gross Distinguished Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley and the Director of the Berkeley Economy and Society Initiative, also known to many of you as BESI.

He has written extensively on American politics, including his latest book, Let Them Eat Tweets– How the Right Rules in an Age of Extreme Inequality, which examines how plutocrats and right-wing populists have shaped a party that undermines democracy. Without further ado, let me turn this panel over to Paul. And thanks very much. Looking forward to this.

PAUL PIERSON: Thanks a lot. Like you said, it’s very timely, this panel. I’ve been studying the political right for over 20 years, and watched as what started out as a fringy operation gradually marched its way into greater and greater control of the Republican Party. And there I’m thinking about the Koch brothers network and folks like that. And then the last few years, we’ve watched a new, even fringier set of actors, or what we’re seeing is even further on the fringe at the outset, pretty rapidly displace those folks.

And now they’re not only have displaced those folks, they’re displacing the people who work in USAID and the Office of Personnel Management. And they’ve moved in with their cots and everything. So I think the basic message is what starts on the fringe doesn’t necessarily stay on the fringe. So it’s very timely to be having this conversation. And it’s a very Social Science Matrix Event, I think, to have people from three different departments moderated by somebody from a fourth department.

And as you were saying, to have to really be celebrating our graduate students. So without any further from me, we’ll have presentations first by Josefina Valdes Lanas from the Anthropology Department, and then Alexis Wood from the Geography Department, and then Peter Forberg from the Sociology Department. And they’ll each talk for 12 or 15 minutes, and then we’ll open it up for discussion, open it up for questions. So, Josefina, the floor is yours.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: OK, thank you, Paul. Can you hear me? Yeah. Thank you, Cori, to the organizers and, well, everyone who’s here, despite the rain. I want to show you a piece of my dissertation that is titled The Passion of the Exception– Ordinary Sacrifices and the Flexibility of Authoritarianism, in which I examine Opus Dei practices in neoliberal Chile.

Opus Dei is a movement, a congregation of the Catholic Church, a conservative branch of the Catholic Church. And all over the world, but in Chile in particular, they congregate a very conservative, traditional, wealthy elite. Yes. And my project so far is looking like what I’m calling a phenomenology of authority. I’m looking at the sacrificial imagination of these practitioners, my interlocutors.

The sacrificial imagination means basically to look at their practices, internal and invisible practices in which they frame their very ordinary actions, most times, trivial actions as a sacrifice, and actually, as a liturgical sacrifice. And in these practices, I’m seeing like a very profound encounter between neoliberal values and theology.

And I address that encounter happens very concretely in the notions that I encounter in the field of efficacious action or efficacy that are both present in the theology of the liturgical action and, of course, in neoliberalism. And in this combination, my argument is that they are actually because they have too much power, power is expanding on its own. So they are actually transforming the theopolitical substance of their authority.

And yes. And a few minutes before, this was my last slide. But I move it here just because I want to be able to show you– my main objective is to show you that through these practices, Opus Dei members are actually inhabiting an ethics, a differentiated ethics, an ethics that is different and that implies different temporal and therefore political horizons.

OK, and before starting, a very few words on why the neoliberal, even though I know it’s like a very unfashionable term these days, but I don’t want to– I’ll be happy to speak more about this if you’re interested. But I want to delve into the theology. But why neoliberalism? Just because I’m like, again, examining the conceptual congruence between economics and theology and its actual social effects.

Of course, because of the very exceptional history of neoliberalism in Chile, we have to remember a history of foreign intervention in which the US State Department crafted this Chile project and a project that could only be implemented through the means of a civic military dictatorship.

And it’s in this civic component of the dictatorship that allowed for it to last 17 years, that Opus Dei members are introduced both as supporters of the regime and as implementers of the neoliberal system, and also because Opus Dei in general, since its beginning in Spain, its project of aiming for sanctity, from perfection, from your own state could be certainly read as an anti-communist project.

OK, so we all know that the neoliberal model ended up producing very clear inequality even in Chile. And despite the fact that Milton Friedman called it the Chilean miracle, the inequality until it’s still ongoing. And I have figures, if you’re interested. But I wanted to say that it’s important neoliberalism because as a concept, and as an ideology was very prominent in the social revolts of 2019. And it’s also important because there was lots of public debate around neoliberalism in its specific relation with Opus Dei.

OK, so a few years forward, we are now enduring also in Chile, a conservative backlash after the social revolts and its failure into achieving structural transformation. This man was recently, well, not so recently, but was selected in the second project of the constitution.

And he is an honorary member of Opus Dei. That means he lives in chastity, lives in communal life, gives all of his salary to the congregation. OK, so this also meant that the public opinion had to learn what it means to follow the form of life of Opus Dei.

Now, let me radically shift gears and go into the more satirical parts that are my thing, the theology. I’m calling this section the tyranny of immanence, liturgical authority, or the ethics of action of Opus Dei member. This is a photo from the field that I love because it’s very imminent and has a lot of things, but I also really like that it has a bottle of mayonnaise, and we Chileans really love mayonnaise. We put it into everything. So it’s very characteristic.

So the life plan are the norms that Opus Dei people follow, and they are a lot of norms– very concrete, tangible norms, such as going to mass every day, corporal mortification, fasting, but also very abstract ones such as being joyful, smiling. But it’s overall it’s a lot. So I was very surprised in the first phase of my fieldwork. But when at the beginning, I met a senior member and she said, I am a member of Opus Dei because it is extremely easy.

They give you complete freedom. Nobody cares if you do this or that. OK, so this was in sharp contrast with what I knew from Opus Dei discipline and what is known from the outside. A very complete account of the influence of Opus Dei in Chile starts with the testimony of a former member who had left by saying it was simply too difficult for me. I couldn’t comply with all that was required.

OK, so just keep in mind this tension between too easy from the inside and too difficult from the outside to then go back to the ethics. OK, so I learned soon, during my two years of ethnographic fieldwork, that the life plan has a very flexible structure that is very important. People were very recurrent in repeating the metaphor that the founder, Escrivá de Balaguer, who is a saint of the church, used to say about the life plan having to fit like a glove into your own particular life, into your very different secular activities.

So how this flexible structure can be combined with a total regimentation of life, it is by finding the divine in the ordinary actions of your life. So the ever shifting focus of the sacred, that is moving all around, and also the leniency towards norms and the flexibility towards norms can be found in this quote by a young woman, mother of three.

She says, “When there are simply no more hours left in the day, and I can’t attend to daily mass, I don’t feel bad. I transform bath time with my kids into a liturgy. In those cases, bathing my children becomes my liturgy.” So OK, this quote could be read as an excuse, as a desire of being mindfulness, mindful, sorry, and present with your children. But these explanations wouldn’t illuminate what is actually happening, the practice that this woman is performing in her imagination.

She is referring to making an offering, which is not actually a rare practice in the Catholic Church. An offering is an event of the imagination, a practice of framing an action in alignment with the passion of Christ. It has a ritual effect, pleasing God or alleviating his pains. And any action can be aligned with the cross. A very common example that I encountered often was, for example, skipping dessert, or skipping a portion of your dessert that was like all over.

And everything can be aligned as a passion because the passion we shouldn’t imagine just the action of death of Christ in the cross, but as a whole complex apparatus of a narrative, a theological apparatus, normative, affective, dramaturgical, participatory that inhabits the imagination of my interlocutors.

And I really like the example of bathing children because of its corporeal intensity. I really think it illuminates the passion aspect because, well, everyone who has ever done this will know that cleaning up a toddler is both very exhausting. You have this woman is on her knees. It’s draining physically, emotionally, but it’s also so joyful and delicious. It’s a clean baby.

And so I want to invoke a choreography of also sensations, bubbles, smells, caresses that really bring the passion effect here. So what is particular of apostate? My argument is that when this woman says, this is my liturgy, she’s not using a metaphor, even if we take the metaphor very seriously.

She actually is invoking the theological framework of the liturgy. She’s framing her actions into the liturgical logic given by theology, which means that she assesses her actions within this framework. Because of this, when my interlocutors would offer daily actions, they never really doubted their efficacy. They never had doubts on their intentions, the earnestness of it, should I be offering something that is more relevant, more big, more important? No.

Ritual efficacy appeared to be completely secured, yes, completely guaranteed by a differentiated logic. So this meant that it was removed from features of interior features. And of course, this has to be a transformative device of subjectivity because if your quotidian actions are continuously embedded in this logic of complete ritual efficacy, this comes with power. But also it emerges from power. So keep that in mind.

So what is the differentiated logic that I’m referring to? I’m referring to the liturgical praxis that Giorgio Agamben explained. And this is basically a system that the church had to create to secure the continuity of its mystery, the death of Christ being repeated in the mass. So it’s this is very like cryptic, but bear with me. You need to have a mystery, that is, the passion, the liturgy, the sacrifice being if it’s what they believe it is.

The mystery is administered by a minister by virtue of a ministerium. This means that the mystery coincides with the minister through a ministerium. This means that the priest, when the priest is performing the Eucharist, he also partakes of the mystery.

And my argument, through examining their practices and watching the authority with which they perform these sacrifices, is that my informants place themselves in this analogical chain. And they, in fact, would participate of this paradoxical subjectivity, that is, the paradoxical subjectivity of the priest in which what you do, your action coincides with your being. So coming back, they are inhabiting an ethics of action that was created for a sacrament, and they are taking into their everyday lives.

And I made something to close with neoliberalism, but it’s not necessarily about efficacy. And yeah, we can talk about that later, but it’s related to the efficacy of the neoliberal with the efficacy of the theological. Sorry. OK, thank you. And my email, if you were to have any questions or suggestions, I love to talk about this. So please write to me. Thank you so much.

PAUL PIERSON: Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

ALEXIS WOOD: Hi. My name is Alexis Wood. I’m from the Department of Geography and the Berkeley Center of New Media. I work out of studio geo, an experimental cartography studio in the Geography Department. And thank you so much for the invitation to come speak today. And thank you so much for Peter for suggesting us all get together because it’s the right-wing studies thing. It’s not a big thing on campus, unsurprisingly.

So before we start off, I want to address this question right off the bat because I teach intro to geography, and this is the first question we try to address immediately, or else our work doesn’t really make too much sense or it’s confusing. So I wanted to give you three principles. Space– it is not just a surface where events take place. It’s a multiplicity of flows that are produced and reproduced by power relations.

And within this, there are power geometries imbued in space that produce and reproduce that space, influencing what sort of stories get told. And three, the stories, the stories that we choose to tell influence the production of power and space. If we find new ways to tell stories, we change the way power and space are produced. And this in turn changes what stories can be told. That sounds very roundabout, and it’s because it is.

Our favorite geography quote is from Ruth Wilson Gilmore. A student questioned why she would get a PhD in geography. I mean, like all of our parents do constantly. And she’s like, well, why would you study where Nebraska is? She’s like, I’m not studying where Nebraska is. I’m studying why Nebraska is. And if that didn’t confuse everybody so much more in my household.

Well, I study particularly the state secessionist movements and how digital space in a rapidly changing physical space come together to produce and reproduce what would be considered a fringe politic, a fringe geography, if you will. Today I’m going to focus on the geographies of Northern California in particular. And now, keeping in mind our three principles of geography, I want to bring you back to 2021, I’m so sorry, to an ultimately unsuccessful California Governor Gavin Newsom’s recall election.

When the petition was handed in and the signatures counted, there was a general shock that emerged in the news media that the petition number had actually been achieved. Even though that number is quite low in comparison to the general population of the state, this was only the second time in the state’s history that had been achieved. So in this sort of flurry, various maps flew around the internet trying to explain why this petition, out of the 100 that had circulated previously, was successful.

There were maps overlaying signature data with 2016 election data, population density, educational attainment, COVID 19 cases, trying to understand what it was about these counties that led to a successful petition. But here’s the thing about maps. They are very, very particular types of abstractions. They are very particular arguments which demonstrate a thing’s most quantifiable aspects. They are inherently limited by the types of data available. And then in data itself is limited by the world’s quantifiability because not everything is or should be quantified.

So if you make a map using that signature data provided by the Secretary of State, you will end up with something that looks similar to on the left. This is actually, the first map I ever made, and I keep it because it’s close to my heart. But because I lived in the far North of California, I know that these counties fall in the boundaries of the State of Jefferson, a 150-year-old state secessionist movement.

I also knew that the act of organization of the State of Jefferson had been aggressively leading that particular recall campaign in-person and on Facebook since 2019. But again, maps are limited by data. And what data is an imaginary state boundary to a state GIS office. And as some of my U reps in the room can attest to, they are not well organized either.

I argue that these boundaries, even though they are imagined, are exceptionally important in understanding deep and long standing socioeconomic and political fractures if one wants to use that word in the United States. And while Northern California and California more generally has always had a tendency towards breaking apart, the movement that we’re seeing today is directly descended from a movement that began in 1940, when Northern California and Southern Oregon tried to secede from their respective states.

In this image, supporters shut down Highway 99 every other Tuesday to hand out this proclamation of independence I’ve copied on the slide. At this point, the movement had elected a governor and had a capital city, Yreka. But this movement would be put on hold with the event of Pearl Harbor about a month later.

Today, the movement has remained quite consistent in their messaging. Their home is simultaneously an extraction site for the government, while suffering from a lack of investment in economy and infrastructure. These frustrations are further exacerbated by the idea that the interest of rural regions lack fair representation in the respective state governments and in the federal governments.

The result is an rural or rural urban divide, not being not only a political division, a geographical division, but an untranslatability between the two spaces. This was one of my favorite copypastas from that minute just because of that first sentence where it says, while I live in the same state as you, I feel a world away. And that’s geographical, folks.

So with this, I ask that we look at these regions as more than official boundaries delineated by the map, more than demographics, but rather as affective states, where power geometries present between rural and urban divide have produced and reproduced a space where feelings that accompany state secessionism proliferate.

So just to bring us back to geography, think of space in this context as layers of paint where actions, events, the general trajectory of an age, as Raymond Williams would say, lays down texture for the next layer that is being splattered plopped on the page. Space is constantly being reproduced, retextured, but what came before it is still there, in a way, is being constantly produced and reproduced.

It’s not about where the state of Jefferson, but why the State of Jefferson? With this question in mind, I’ve been hosting a project documenting the imagined states of the US alongside archival work to understand where, yes, sure, it is still a map, but importantly, why these state secessionist movements exist, what develops and sustains these spaces, and what do they look like? All boundaries are constructed, but it’s which one of these constructions we choose to tell stories about that matter in the creation of space, particularly, and in the continuation or disruption of power.

So back to maps. If we choose to only tell the stories that we’ve heard again and again, what are we aiming to understand, actually? Look at this map. It’s telling me, telling us something we all know. I ask you to propose questions that center around why and to be open to different stories. So why the State of Jefferson? Why is it that both a white supremacy group and a gay liberation movement tried to overtake Alpine County in the 1970s to institute a new community? Why the most rural County in California?

There’s something about that geography in particular. Why are stories about white settlers the loudest stories? Where are the agencies of diverse identities in the regions that we paint as white? Yes, colonialism and white supremacy. But there is more than just these structures which have shaped and continue to shape space. What are the geographies of Northern California, which have continued as an American frontier, where there is intense precarity, but also amazing possibility? California has always been the frontier, but Northern California has always been on the fringe.

I find it hard to believe that we can look at these images and not understand in some capacity why the state of Jefferson? And this that we can look at these images and not understand the ongoingness of space, the reproduction of space, which has been hijacked by colonialism, by neoliberalism, by capitalism to produce precarity and insecurity.

This image was posted on January 7, 2021. Insurrection seems outrageous. But when a region has required a life of insecurity, where do you put that anger and that grief? This is not solely a problem of politics, but one of economic insecurity and economic system which demands exploitation. If we’re told a different story about the State of Jefferson, what would it tell us about the rural urban divide in the US? If we took a step back and shifted to a conversation about class, about wealth and poverty, about race and settler colonialism, what could we address?

Thanks to my advisor, Clancy Wilmott, and my colleagues of the Department of Geography have so far endured almost three years of my rage. And thank you to the Berkeley Center of New Media, as well as the NSF, for as long as it exists for my funding. All right, thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

PETER FORBERG: All right, I’m going to stay sitting here, if that’s OK with everyone, because I do not have slides to present. At some point, I’ll ask you to imagine a slide, but we’ll get there. So first, thank you to the Social Science Matrix, to Cori and Ambrosia for organizing this, and to Paul for moderating and for my co-panelists for presenting their work up here.

So I’m going to go through three stages. I’m going to start in the very concrete and talk about some empirical work. And then I’m going to move into higher and higher levels of abstraction. At some point it may seem like I am speaking in tongues, but I promise I will then come back down and get real again.

So let’s start with the concrete. So my previous work has been on the conspiracy theory QAnon. I’ll do a very brief explainer, which is simply that QAnon was a conspiracy theory that began on Fortune. You might have heard of it. It is a well-known alt-right message board. It essentially alleged during Trump’s first presidency that there was a secret plot that was working to overthrow the “Deep state,” which was comprised of celebrities and bankers and intellectuals who actually run the United States government.

So QAnon alleged that there was an insider within the Trump administration, who was telling them all this information about how soon Hillary Clinton would be arrested, the United States would be liberated by perhaps the National Guard. Maybe it was the COVID vaccine was actually going to eliminate all the bad people.

The conspiracy theory came in many different flavors and forms, but ultimately, it was a conspiracy theory about a group of people, QAnon, who had secret access to information that would help them revolt against an evil, authoritarian United States government that we didn’t even know about because it lurked so far beneath the surface. It was not the people we voted for.

So I want to understand how people joined this movement. How did people come to believe the political reality of QAnon that I have just described to you. And I did this by conducting interviews, doing ethnographic work with QAnon followers, and doing some computational analysis of their Twitter bios and tweets. Some of the general takeaways is that QAnon acted as a place for emotional investment in an identity, as a response to particular political grievances.

What do I mean by that? Well, if I had a slide, it would be one of my many, many attempts to visualize QAnon Twitter bios. These are all incredibly difficult to visualize. Their language, language is messy, and I’ve tried a million strategies. I’m finally getting close to one, and I wish I had it prepared for today.

But you would see a big bubble that says QAnon, and then you’d see a million different lines heading out in different directions, going to disabled veteran or animal lover or Save the Children or anti-pedophilia, or sometimes gay liberation, Brazilian liberation. Portuguese liberation, QAnon Japan. It’s a raft of identities, all of which center around this thing called QAnon, which I explained to you. I told you what it was, but that’s really a misnomer.

I like to think of QAnon as a floating signifier. What I mean by that is that there is no thing that is QAnon. Qanon doesn’t represent any one ideology, any one belief. Instead, it’s a placeholder for a lot of different beliefs, a lot of different etiologies. It’s where people who were abused in the foster care system, or people who served in Vietnam, can project their anxieties about the current state of the United States and claim that they have agency and control over what’s going to happen because they have this secret knowledge about how they’re going to overthrow the US government.

So what does QAnon represent? What does it mean? It’s an identity. It’s an identity that people invest in because it makes them feel good, and it allows them to project political possibilities. It allows them to build a community. It allows a lot of people to make a lot of money by selling merch, by hosting podcasts, by making crypto coins. So there’s other reasons for investing in QAnon beyond the emotional, but the financial investment.

And it’s a way of converting apathy, of taking a lot of people, such as some of my interview subjects who said, I’d given up on politics. I hadn’t voted in years, and now here I am. And this is why QAnon resonated not just among Republicans, which was by far its largest demographic, but also among independents. What I really want to say QAnon allows, though, is a form of identity, which necessarily entails a vision of social reality. A vision of political reality is a counter epistemic discourse.

You learned that the Constitution worked from Schoolhouse Rock of writing a bill, and it goes and it’s contested and it’s made into a law. That’s not how the government works. There’s someone else pulling the strings who’s actually controlling the government. And this is what QAnon offers. It is a counter epistemic, a counter truth claim that gives people control over organizations that don’t really make sense to them, like Big Pharma or the government, or the finance industry, the banks, the hospitals.

So it held a theory of social reality. And with that it held a theory of political change. And this is why QAnon has been coined– it has been called participatory disinformation. Participatory disinformation, a term coined by Kate Starbird. It’s not disinformation coming from just the Russians broadcasting it into your brain. It is instead disinformation that you are actively creating with your friends. And QAnon would view it as a community of friends and a family working together to build this alternative truth.

And then they’ve built this alternative truth, and they stormed the capital. And they start running for boards of electors and school boards and house reps. And that’s where my research ended, right? Was right as QAnon was getting close to the sources of power. I left my undergraduate institution. I had to find a job. And I was left with this question, what happens when the dog catches the car?

What happens when these people who have an alternative vision of how the government works, are suddenly the people leading the government? I think we’re getting a good image of that right now. I think we’re getting a good image of what happens when the dog is driving the car if we look at what is going on in the United States.

And so what I’m interested in are two movements, not social movements, the way I’ve talked about QAnon, but two intellectual movements of where I think those of us studying fringe politics, those of us studying the right, should be looking. And the first one is I want us to think about these floating signifiers, things like QAnon, things like the anti-trans movement, things like the State of Jefferson, things like the new Christianity movement, whether that is the Opus Dei, whether that’s Evangelicalism, these identities that people have been able to latch onto, and invest their political ambitions in, and how they’ve become linked together.

Why are all of these people from disparate backgrounds attaching to something like QAnon? Why are there people from diverse political sects who have all come together to agree on this signifier of QAnon? And I think this has a lot to do with the way we talk about myths/disinformation. You might not have ever heard of myths/disinformation five, six years ago, but now it’s how we understand how everyone joins these political movements.

We think people must have had their brains hacked by YouTube. People must be so gullible as to believe in this misinformation. I like Kate Starbird’s version better. I like the idea that people are investing in this misinformation for a reason. They’re joining these movements because they believe in what’s going on, but also that there are media structures that are enabling them, such as social media, to create this kind of misinformation and that these media structures are really effective at grouping together disparate beliefs and creating new political contingencies that surprise us.

Some of the work on QAnon, I was surprised to see that a lot of people with left leaning critiques of Big Pharma or the mainstream media were suddenly like, I can deal with the White supremacists. They were able to use their position in digital space and media space to come together and create new political formations that we hadn’t seen before. And now those media elites, the people who have created these platforms, the people like Elon Musk, who has a wild political background, are now in the reins of government.

We’ve had more people from Fox News, from One America News in the Trump administration than we’ve ever seen someone from MSNBC or the Washington Post joining up in previous administrations or even Fox News in previous Republican administrations. What does it mean that these media elites, the people who have helped to construct signifiers like QAnon, are now part of this government coalition? So I want us to understand how these disparate groups come together.

The second movement that I want us to make, the second intellectual move I want us to make, is to understand what happens when the dog is driving the car. I think that is the big question. What happens when people like QAnon, who believe that the election was stolen, are suddenly in charge of boards of electors, and are trying to put their belief, which is often based on absolutely nothing. It’s completely fake. It’s completely fabricated. They’re trying to govern on the basis of an ideology that has no grounding in reality. What? These are the two kind of maneuvers that I’m very curious about studying.

So that was me getting more and more abstract. But now I want to bring it back down and talk about what would it look like to continue doing this kind of research, to start studying the political elites, to start studying the processes of the formation of something like QAnon? I will say the landscape has changed drastically. In the past two weeks, the landscape has changed.

I think we need to be very careful about how people who are studying the right-wing think about doing this kind of research. Is it possible that someone like me could just go out and interview a bunch of QAnons, again? Would I be able to do that? Would I be able to study State of Jefferson or white supremacists, or is this still possible, given the way that researchers have been exposed in recent weeks to more and more political threats? What does this mean for our disciplines, for our field studies, if researchers are increasingly being seen as the target by the administrative state.

So this is something I’ve been thinking a lot about. If anyone’s interested in this topic, I’m working on a paper on it with a professor in which we’re thinking about research because she’s a scholar of gender. She has a lot of students who come and say, I want to study the abortion providers who are defying Texas State law. I want to study the teachers who are still using pronouns when they shouldn’t. I want to study the children who are transitioning in states where it’s illegal.

And we say, why would you do that? Why would you open yourself up and open your research participants up to all of the dangers in this current moment? And so we need to think– and I’m not saying that kind of research can’t be done. I’m not saying it’s not important. I’m not saying there aren’t strategies for doing that. But I want to know, how are we working to make sure that researchers are safe and that we’re studying up, rather than just studying the people who are in danger?

How do we create research programs that are focused on studying the media elites, the administrative elites, the people who are taking away our funding, who are trying to shut down our schools, who are taking away course requirements in Florida. What does sociology, geography, anthropology, political science, anything do in this kind of research environment? And how do we do it ethically?

I think we also need to think about how– I’ve learned a lot about QAnon. I think I know quite a bit about how QAnon started and how it was formed. But in the midst of January 6, in the midst of the recent Trump election, I don’t know what to do about it. How do we also think about praxis? How do we think about taking our insights into these kinds of movements and using them to inform political organization counter movements that are addressing some of these concerns, that people in these movements have to try to undermine their power and authority within the US?

And my last note is when I first started studying QAnon, it felt surreal. I started studying QAnon before the COVID pandemic. At that time, it was still kind of a fringe thing on some message boards, and I was like, oh, this is just strange. It reminds me of some guys from high school I knew who would spend a lot of time on Fortune. It was odd that this thing was happening. I think a lot of political reality right now feels very surreal, and I think we should lean into that.

I think there is a tendency to just dismiss it, to call it misinformation, to call it disinformation, to call it fascism. And I it’s all of those things. But I think we should say, but then why is it here? Lean into that strangeness, try to understand why it feels strange to us and get inside of its head. And with that, I think this is a panel for scholars of the right-wing, scholars of fringe politics. And I guess my statement is, I think we’re all scholars of the right-wing and of fringe politics.

Now, I think if you’re studying medicine or finance or governance, if you’re studying politics, if you’re studying education, these forces are now determining, they are overdetermining, I think, the trajectory of a lot of our studies in the way that during the COVID 19 pandemic, everyone had to account for how COVID was changing, how we thought about our research. I think we all have to think about how the current political environment is changing, how we approach and think about our research.

And I think we’ve done ourselves a disservice by pretending in the past that we could study politics without addressing this– that you could study politics in the early 2000 without thinking about the Tea Party. You could study what was going on during COVID and the recent Trump election without thinking about QAnon or thinking about these kinds of movements. Yeah, so that’s my spiel. Thank you very much.

[APPLAUSE]

PAUL PIERSON: All right, so we can open it up for questions. I have to just– I can’t resist before doing that to say, Peter, that when you said the dog is now driving the car, I kept waiting for you to say the DOGE is now driving the car.

[LAUGHTER]

PETER FORBERG: I missed it. Dang it.

PAUL PIERSON: Any questions? Yeah.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: I have a question for Peter. Oh, thanks. Really interesting presentation, all of you. And I guess this is a question for you, Peter, that I think ties into Josefina’s presentation, too. I’m curious how you think about and how you theorize the difference between– you said the elites that are sort of controlling the offices of government now, and they might be taking on the QAnon mythos without actually participating in the ritualistic practices that actually are understood in the same way that someone, a mother washing her child, is understanding that practice through the actual structure of a Christian understanding of the world. So I guess I’m wondering how you think about those two– the differentiation there.

PETER FORBERG: I could– yeah.

PAUL PIERSON: You can start.

PETER FORBERG: I’ll say, this is something I’ve been thinking about. I really like this question. I have this budding theory of things like Trump’s maneuvers around tariffs, or this whole DOGE, or whatever these kinds of political spectacles might be. I see them as being a way of– I mean, I think Paul’s book does a wonderful job of analyzing these kinds of forces of– I don’t want to say mystification, but there’s a reason why we talk about misinformation.

There’s a reason why we talk about there being a separation between what is going on in government and what is going on with the people on the ground. And I QAnon is a perfect example of this. In which people would say, oh, Trump is doing xyz thing. They would think he would use the right language. He would make symbolic gestures showing that he has taken up their beliefs, that he’s practicing their beliefs.

I think there’s a lot of people in the elite who are doing that, who know how to speak the language of the people who give them– supply them votes and supply them support, and then to do whatever they want behind the scenes. And I think that’s where studying power becomes really important. I’ll just quickly say, I think someone who had a really great understanding of this was Arlie Hochschild in her latest book, is talking about how there’s bifurcations of media and thus of understanding.

Such that Trump does something or xyz right wing figure does something, and the liberal media interprets it one way, and the right wing media interprets it another way. And then the people on the ground only see that slice of reality. And so we’re able to put together the logic that says, Trump didn’t actually get anything when he threatened Mexico with tariffs.

They did something that they already promised to do four years ago. But people aren’t seeing that half of the narrative. They’re seeing Trump threatened, and then he got a concession. And this kind of bifurcation of reality between what the elites know and what the people know allows them to fill that gap with the spectacle of the right language, of the right discourse. I hope that addresses what you were getting at.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: Hello. I guess I would just add that in my case, because of scale, I’m very interested in your point and in the interaction and how authority acts between different elites. But in the case of my research, because of scale and numbers, is very different because Chile is a country of 20 million people. I think California only is like 70 or 40.

So the traditional elite dominates– the elite that I’m describing dominates the media. Of course, I’m there are intellectual elites that don’t participate of Opus Dei, but it’s– I have it easy in that way, I think. But what I wanted to add is that studying the right wing always will confront you with your own elite status as we in an intellectual elite. And this day and age, I think it becomes more tense, the relation that we get with it.

A few weeks ago, I was chewing on some words that I heard because, of course, we are all in shock. But a very intellectual person was asking, how immigrants can vote for someone that, of course, we’ve heard this a million times, for someone that is like going to impede their rights. But that has the presumption that immigrants are just immigrants and not they’re people with a vast variety of beliefs and an ideology, some cross by history. And so yeah. And in that sense, you get the overlapping power structures of elites working right in that comment, I would say. Like, reducing a subject into just this legal status. I don’t know if– yeah, that’s what I think [? I have. ?]

PAUL PIERSON: Any questions.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. Thank you so much for your presentations. So my question is about the relationship between neoliberalism and right wing populism, like in QAnon, or intermingled with QAnon. So I’ve argued in my research that neoliberal economic policies propagated by both major political parties severely impacted many regions of the US, and that both major political parties had populist rebellions in 2016, resulting in Bernie Sanders movement in 2016 and Donald Trump’s movement in 2016.

And that the Republicans were– had their populist rebellion win out while the Democrats suppressed their– largely suppressed their populist rebellion, which is– and I’ve argued that that’s part of why we’re here, where we are today. So what do you all think that that might mean in the future for partisan politics being the way to maybe combat the rise of QAnon or push back against it in any way?

PETER FORBERG: Anyone else want to talk about neoliberalism? I think it applies to all of us. But yeah. I mean, I think you’re positioning the rise of QAnon and the right wing populist politics as emerging from neoliberal practices, I think, is– largely resonates with everything that I’ve come to understand about the political trajectories of a lot of these figures, how they’ve been able to tap into this discourse.

In terms of partisan politics, I mean, I think what we’re witnessing right now is that there’s this huge bifurcation within the Republican Party in which you’re able to have a party that holds people both like Steve Bannon and Elon Musk and Stephen Miller and however many– like, people who represent different economic factions, different class factions– as possible are all subsumed into this party, and they’re able to do this mystification strategy in which they can pretend that there are populist politics going on. They can talk about prices at the grocery store.

And I think what we witnessed with the campaign of Kamala Harris is really no concessions to a kind of a populist vision in that sense. It was about homeowners and the people who aren’t homeowners are like, I don’t know what– does that do for me? And so I think when we think about partisan politics, I mean, my take on it right now is the Democrats are failing deeply to show that there is a partisan way to integrate these kind of populist policies into their program.

And that they remain committed to, at best, a reactionary program against what is currently going on. But their responses to the takeover of USAID or any of the Treasury, so on and so forth, does not really suggest that they’re building a positive program, that they’re articulating a positive program that can address these concerns. Yeah. So that’s, I guess, where I’m at. Yeah.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: In that sense, I would just add that neoliberalism is also, I would argue, an empty vessel signifier. Because when a party’s become under neoliberalism and they start making exceptions into integrating someone that, I don’t know, salted the capital and things like that, to accommodate– to have the flexibility to accommodate the exception is– well, from my department, famous anthropologist, Aihwa Ong– is not it’s not an exception of neoliberalism. It’s actually how it works. It has to work like that because it’s structurally inherently empty and it moves. So yeah, just I wanted to add that to your image that I think it’s great.

ALEXIS WOOD: Not explicitly related to my own research. But as somebody who grew up in the UK, which is only slightly less on fire than the US is on fire now, I think we’re seeing the Republican Party filling the vacuum for what would be a Labor Party. Because of increasing economic widening between classes, you see instability, you see a lot of desperation. I grew up with a– who is now a QAnon mother. And it was– a lot of it is charged by this, there is so much instability in my own life because there is nobody actually fighting for the working class, and now you just have two parties of elites bickering at each other. And who is there, really, except the Republican Party, which is now this face of instability and possible change, or you just have more of the same.

CORI HAYDEN: I think because I’m holding the mic, I become the eye contact person. So I have a cue here, there, here, here. I love it.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thanks for this panel. My question is for Josephine. So first, I loved your image of bathing the child. I can relate to the holiness and the hell of bathing a toddler, so that was very evocative. My question for you is about gender in Opus Dei. I’m not very knowledgeable about this movement. And if I’m understanding your presentation right, it sounds like there’s at least one individual in elected office from this movement. I’m assuming there’s maybe more. Is that right? Is it that one individual or are there more elected?

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: I know of one.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: One, OK.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: I know it must be more. But there’s always someone important of Opus Dei in the history of Chile, I would say.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK. So my question is about, what is the role– what is the gender makeup of the followers of Opus Dei? Because it sounded like most of the quotes you had were from women. And I saw some parallels with the tradwives I follow, American tradwives, that I follow on social media, about sanctifying the domestic life. And so yeah, I’m just curious, what– and there’s women on social media play a big role in laundering white supremacist ideas here in the US. And so what role is the mother or women playing in widening the appeal of this movement?

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: Yeah, I appreciate that you’re bringing the tradwives because I think that they also– they inhabit a similar paradox than the women in Opus Dei. I’m thinking of a tradwife that supposedly sells like making everything from scratch and being submissive to the husband, but we also know that she’s the one earning the millions of dollars and there are plenty of domestic help. In the case of my [? interlocutors, ?] it’s the same.

They’re devoted to the domestic in this very affluent– so I’m very interested in what domestic then. And working with their ideology, their theology, as I said, is all about being efficient. So I’m just working now in a chapter that deals with those issues. And it’s, what is the efficiency of the domestic, which as a person that clean floor every day can imagine? But they don’t. So they would say, for them, the domestic is changing the water of the vessel.

And they actually think that that is effective because in their views, well, yeah, the role of women is about making atmospheres for others to thrive. And that gender model of efficiency and efficiency that is based on details. The productive efficacy of a detail, it’s very interesting because it has completely been integrated into the corporations and the institutions that Opus Dei lead.

For example, in a university that has– that is lead by Opus Dei, not directly, but people that are an Opus Dei and that work in a department of, let’s say, economists, they have a person that has a position of something administrative. But how people would frame it is, she’s like the housewife of the department. She is in charge of making everything nice.

And that nice is about productive for them, but it’s also a marker of class, of course. But yeah. And I didn’t mention, but because of the structure of Opus Dei, I only work with women. I knew that person, that guy, but just an interview. But I was bathing toddlers with women and attending to spiritual events. And thank you for your question.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Great panel. Just blown away by everybody’s research. One for the table, it’s a bit of a mouthful, but how do we reconcile a push for epistemic plurality, or recognizing that there are multiple ways of knowing and that some have been silenced by these legacies of slavery or colonialism, imperialism with the need to critically engage with fringe political discourses that challenge mainstream or orthodox truths. At what point does valuing diverse epistemologies risk legitimizing destructive, or at the very least, harmful ideologies?

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: No, I don’t know. That’s the most difficult question ever. I would say, like, where do you put your limit to engaging in dialogue with others? Is it fascism? But I think that line is very corrosive to me. And working with people that, yeah, still support a dictatorship that meant all sorts of atrocities, but also working in the scale of bathing children is always confronting me with that– because people are so layered, and that’s the beauty of anthropology, I would say. But I have no idea how to reply.

ALEXIS WOOD: This is actually a question that we think a lot about in my department in particular. One of the first things that we’re introduced to is, what would it mean to live in a flactoverse, basically, instead of a one-world world? And I think it really depends on what you think your contribution is, where you put your politics, and then how that translates into method.

So in my office, we do a lot of alternative cartographies. So right now, we were working with a Sogorea Te Land Trust to develop a cartography of the Bay Area that’s rooted in anti-colonial projection, working with them specifically to put their stories into a new cartography. And that in itself, producing that map, changes the story. And often, my students get very overwhelmed when I introduce them to the idea of epistemology. And they’re like, oh my god, so nothing actually means nothing.

And I’m like, no, no, no. You have to choose what means something to you in particular. And I remind them of the story that I try to tell them at the beginning of the semester that was a New York Times piece about somebody berating somebody else for being interested in anti-reflection glass on buildings to save birds. And he’s like, how could you care about this in a world that’s just falling apart? And he’s like, but how can any one person deal with a question of the world ending?

That’s just too much for any one person to deal with. You can only face the direction you can face, and then hopefully, enough of us face that direction, and we start moving in a better way. And seeing diverse stories as ways to re-world, basically. And I think my answer to the how do we risk engaging with damaging narratives, aren’t we already? So I think there’s more of a risk in not entertaining more diverse narratives.

PETER FORBERG: Yeah. I mean, this is the question. This is always the difficult one. I was reading Donna Haraway today. So my brain is not primed for this because I’m just thinking about situated knowledge. I think one thing– I mean, my kind of research program, if I’ve ever had one, is to say, I just– I want to take these beliefs seriously. And I think that there are a lot of people who, when I started doing this research, who said, I would never want to engage with this. I would never want to think about these things. I could never give an inch to any of these people.

And I think that’s a totally fair position, especially when some of the beliefs that you’re being exposed to strike so deeply at your core moral, ethical values. And so right now, I’m talking about it in the research ethics and the research practice framework. But I do want to say that that’s part of what I mean when I talk about the surrealism of doing this is. I mean, for this research, and I’m sure all of us have experienced this, it’s like bingeing content that makes me feel cognitive dissonance and deep anxiety about the nature of reality for hours and hours on end every single day.

And I think leaning into that anxiety and understanding, trying to understand the situated knowledge, a little bit of [INAUDIBLE], if you will, to get at why people believe in these epistemologies, these counter epistemologies is important so that when Curtis Yarvin or JD Vance goes on The New York Times there is an alternative that debunks that. And I’m against fact checking, debunking culture as a cure to democracy, but the practices that I’ve seen from research participants is, they’re so willing to look up alternative information.

But oftentimes, the kinds of– this is a tactic for conspiracy theory propagation, is that they’ll choose news stories or they’ll choose terms that are so specific to their conspiracy theory that when you look it up, you find yourself in a completely closed room. Such that you can’t find any– there’s nothing from the outside intervening on that epistemology. There would be times where I was deep into a three-hour documentary on some part of QAnon kind of mythos, and I would try to– I would be like, that can’t be true.

And I’d Google it, and all I would get would be references to this documentary. We can’t go out and fact checked everything. We can’t go out and do all of that. But to understand their language and how they present that language, I think, is important for developing an alternative discourse that both can provide a pathway for leaving that closed box, but that also addresses whether it’s the lack of a narrative for the working class.

Is like, OK, what are the kinds of questions that people in the working class are asking that lead them to this kind of epistemology? Literally, what are the things that they’re googling? What are the things that they’re checking on their news feed? And how can we understand that language and think about intervening in that language to put a different perspective in there? That’s a very– yeah, I think I have a lot of problems with what I’ve just said, and nobody should hold me to it, [LAUGHS] but that’s my initial thought.

CORI HAYDEN: We have a couple questions stacked up here. So I’m going to suggest [INAUDIBLE]. I’m going to suggest that we cluster the three remaining questions and put them to you all as a group. I have a question here, here, and in the back as well.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Sure. Thank you for such a rich panel. So I’ll try to be brief. Essentially, what role of history here? Because I think when we think about French politics, when we think about the surrealness of the dog driving the car, there’s this tendency to say this is either completely unprecedented or it’s totally isomorphic with 1930s Germany. And nothing in between.

So I wonder– this is not the first time that Christian cults or secession movements or fringe politics have had social movements and political rises. I mean, I just think about my own history, growing up in Mississippi, I went to two elementary schools. One was named Jefferson Davis, and the other was Beauvoir. The president of the Confederacy and the name of his White House. So I grew up around these things, and the US grew up around these things as well. So what role do we pull history out to understand that what’s new is, in a lot of ways, old as well.

CORI HAYDEN: Thank you.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thanks. Great panel, everyone. This was a question for Alexis, and I was really curious– you had this throwaway slide about arguing for affective states over imagined states or imagined communities riffing on Benedict Anderson, I assume. And I wanted you to unpack that a little bit, and to also think about, you’re using this in reference to geographically bounded secessionist movements, and I was wondering if you might be able to– could we think about the idea of affective states as a more dispersed kind of geographic imaginary? Does that make sense?

ALEXIS WOOD: Mhm.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yeah. OK.

CORI HAYDEN: Take notes on these questions.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thanks. Thanks for the panel. I’ll pose my question as maybe something you could drizzle over these other ones and just– you already commented on this a little bit. But I think when I think of the church and a rural secessionist movement and Fortran, I think of these things as very male-dominated patterns. And so I’m curious if all three of you could maybe comment again on the gender dynamics relevant in your movements, whether that’s the priests or the manosphere or and male female dynamics in rural America. Thanks.

PAUL PIERSON: And I can’t resist adding one more, because it’s all so interesting. And it’s probably not huge. And this is for Alexis as well. I’m wondering what happens to the state of Jefferson with the rise of Donald Trump and what we learned– so if they’re saying they have this really strong place-based attachment but then some national figure comes along who has nothing to do with that place, but who resonates for them, to what extent do they just like flip to now being MAGA?

To what extent– how do they reconcile their attachment to Jefferson and to being separate from the United States, or separate from the way that things are organized? But now, they’ve got a MAGA guy in control? I’d just be interested in what you learn when you drop Trump into that situation. So you guys can– I said before, it’s good to collect questions, because then you can pick and choose and bob and weave. If there are things you don’t want to talk about. But we’ve got we’ve got about 10 minutes, so you probably each have three.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: Well, I don’t know. The women I work with are very much disputing the power of the priest. I would say Opus Dei as a whole. But in their daily interactions with the priest, they would refute the priest answer in the confessionary, like, at that level. If they feel that the priest is being lenient with something, they would be like, well, but then what do we believe? They are demanding from the priest is very structured. But then again, in their own– they have this flexibility with their own practices. Yeah. I was going to say something more to you, but I forgot. But it’s going to come back, so maybe you want to go?

ALEXIS WOOD: Oh, yeah. OK. So on the first question, I don’t believe in history nor time. They are all rewritten to serve the present. But within that, I do believe in space. And space is very bound up with narratives of history. I believe in patterns, because space is determined by power geometries, which fall along the same things, which they have since the closing of the Commons.

We’re going to see capitalism extract from people what it can until it’s done, and it’ll move on to something else, and again and again. But I think it’s more of a question of space than history. And then, I guess, that falls into affect. I want to go for affective states, precisely because it does account for, I think, dispersed geographies as well. I study what digital space is within the context of state secessionist movements as well because rural areas are dispersed geographically. Social media is a big part of this.

And these introduction of technologies, even though it’s a characteristic of dispersed spaces, what it’s doing is collapsing space. And so even though somebody, which I’ve seen before, on the East Coast, is a state of Jefferson supporter– and it’s random, but it happens all the time, because they believe in the anti-elite state, a new mission for what the US could be, what a state could be.

Gender dynamics, I find that the women in my group specifically in the state of Jefferson are in charge. They are in charge of the social media. They are in charge of organizing the events. They are in charge of making sure that everybody is where they’re supposed to be, and that is the same throughout Western society. We are in charge of timekeeping. But the face of the organization is a man. But women play a huge role in that organization. And what has happened SRJ in the face of trump, of course, they’ve adopted the MAGA rhetoric because it speaks to them. But I think because it is a place-based movement, it will exist after Trump, just as it existed before it. Speed run.

[LAUGHTER]

Well, I’ll start by addressing history. And I agree that there’s often this dichotomy that’s posed of– there’s a few– I’ve always worried that I’m just someone who’s– and now I’m the human chasing the dog driving the car. That I’m just like, whatever is the most present controversy, I’m there, I’m on it. And that I haven’t done a lot of historical work. But then the more that I’ve spent time thinking about QAnon, I’ve always thought, it’s interesting, why have we come up with these– we’ve got these neologisms for mis/disinformation.

And I’m like, well, propaganda was a thing. There were debates in the early 2000 about the rise of infotainment, and Fox News. And so some of the things that I’m looking at in media studies suggest to me that there’s– these are not either directly analogous to something that’s happened in the past. They’re not entirely new, but they seem to be part of an emergent pattern or a recurring pattern.

And it’s really hard to take in the whole of history and from that then say, oh, yeah, all– here’s a checklist of the political-economic media, cultural sphere, and how this 2020 is an exact replica of 1920, whatever it is. So for me, I think the project has been to think about how– what are the small pieces present that we can really hone in on, and just trace that.

And so I think that this is a way of opening into what is sometimes the complexity of history and of the nuance of discussing history and trying to avoid these simple analogies. Is to be like, let’s take one process. Let’s take a single process and see if this recurs as a pattern throughout history. And so now I’m like, OK, I’m studying media. Of course, I have to go back to Stuart Hall. And I have to go back to people who are writing about the printing press.

And if we’re talking about conspiracy theories being propagated over social media, let’s talk about conspiracy theories being propagated over the printing press. And that is a way of both destroying the analogs and being, like, [? press and ?] [? reformation ?] is not exactly like QAnon in 2020. But it gives us some small sliver of history that we can trace. And from that, start to build up a bit of a catalog of historical threads to hopefully arrive at– I’m a Gramscian at some conjunctural kind of analysis of the present. So that’s my piece on history.

And then the piece on gender. I’m very ambivalent about how to frame this, because I think it’s interesting to hear that state of Jefferson was is really dominated by women, because QAnon was often assumed to be dominated by women. It was often thought that it was a very feminist movement because of the whole save the children kind of faction of it. And because you had a lot of these mothers being the face of it.

And I often was like, this is fascinating because it is a big part of QAnon, is one of the identities that are helping construct this thing that is QAnon, but it’s also a way of really downplaying all the white nationalists in it. It was like the male politics of QAnon was sublimated to introduce the fanciful progressive politics of the mothers in the movement and how harmless they are. And it was not the save the children protesters that we saw being arrested on January 6 who had connections to the QAnon movement.

So I think there’s– we have to be very deliberate about how we study gender and how we use it to discuss these politics, which is not at all me questioning the role of women within QAnon, but just thinking about, how do we talk about gender when it comes to these movements? How do our own frames about gender and biases about gender start to bleed into our political analysis of what’s happening?

And how do we square the fact that something like QAnon was at once a deeply kind of– I hate to reify these binaries, but yeah, it’s like this maternal thing that’s about protecting the children. It’s also a big thing in the manosphere. It’s all about red pilling. That is the language. And that these two worlds are colliding and negotiating with one another. And there are women who are telling me that they’re choosing to ignore some of the other parts of the movement because that doesn’t represent them. Yet, they’re still part of the– I think it gets very, very complex for a movement like that. But that’s all to just say, I think gender is always a key thing to be talking about in these. Yeah.

PAUL PIERSON: OK. Do you want to say one more thing?

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: Yes. Yeah.

PAUL PIERSON: OK. Sure.

JOSEFINA VALDES LANAS: Speaking about space, I’m just thinking that all that we are referring to here is about a very self-contained space where really, at times, no air enters. And in my own research, I can think of one or two, maybe three moments in which the system that they have created for themselves really collapses. And these are very particular moments.

And I’m thinking with history on how to study those moments and what’s unprecedented of these times. For example, I was also, with gender, thinking about what technologies of IVF mean for women that want– that are called to have plenty of children, or the circulation of bodies and information. Like, how an elite that is so privileged to maintain itself bounded and all that applies for your cases as well. Just that.

PAUL PIERSON: OK. What a rich conversation. Thanks to everyone. Thanks to you guys for sharing your really wonderful research, and we’ll call it a day. Thanks.

[APPLAUSE]

[MUSIC PLAYING]

WOMAN’S VOICE: Thank you for listening. To learn more about Social Science Matrix, please visit matrix.berkeley.edu.

California Spotlight

The Future of California Agriculture

As one of the nation’s agricultural powerhouses, California’s farming industry stands at a critical juncture. Climate change, labor availability and migration, and rapidly evolving technologies are reshaping the landscape of agriculture in the Golden State.

This panel, recorded on January 30, 2025 and presented as part of the UC Berkeley Social Science Matrix California Spotlight series, brought together experts to analyze these changes and explore their implications for agricultural communities and rural economies. The panel featured Federico Castillo, Lecturer in the Department of Ethnic Studies at UC Berkeley and Project Scientist at the College of Natural Resources; Julie Guthman, Distinguished Professor Emerita at UC Santa Cruz; and Eric Edwards, Assistant Professor in Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis. Timothy Bowles, Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, moderated.

The panel was co-sponsored by the Center for Science, Technology, Medicine, & Society (CSTMS); the Berkeley Food Institute; the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative (BIMI); and the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment (IRLE).

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to this event as a podcast below, or on Apple Podcasts.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

WOMAN’S VOICE: The Matrix Podcast is a production of Social Science Matrix, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Berkeley.

CORI HAYDEN: Hi, everyone. Welcome to Matrix. My name is Cori Hayden. I’m the interim director this semester of Social Science Matrix, and it’s a real delight to welcome you all here for our inaugural panel of the spring semester. As I don’t need to emphasize to you all in this room, California agriculture is at an absolutely critical juncture right now between climate change, shifting labor dynamics, and rapid technological change.

We’re seeing a real reshaping of the landscape of one of our most vital industries. We’ve assembled here a really wonderful panel to help us navigate these transformations and their far-reaching implications not just for agricultural communities, but also for the economy writ large. So we’re going to explore how farmers, policymakers, tech innovators are grappling with the changing climate and are embracing or questioning new technologies.

So together, as a panel, we’re going to examine how these trends are reshaping the fabric of California agriculture and what it means for the future of food sustainability and our collective livelihood. Now, this event is cosponsored by the UC Berkeley Center for Science, Technology, Medicine and Society, the Berkeley Food Institute, the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative, and the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. Thanks to all of our partners in bringing this event to fruition.

Now, before I turn it over to the panelists, I just want to give you a quick preview of some other events we have coming up at matrix. Next week, in fact– starting February 4, a new directions panel with emerging research from advanced graduate students on the study of fringe politics. On February 10, an Author Meets Critics Panel on society, despite the state reimagining geographies of order with the author, Jeronimo Barrera de La Torre in geography. Matrix on point event on Los Angeles wildfires and more.

So we were just saying here with Tim that there are very few things right now that are not timely in an emergency footing. But I hope you will join us for a bunch of these events, and we’ll see where we’re going in this world of ours right now. Let me now introduce the moderator for this panel, Professor Tim Bowles. Tim Bowles is an associate professor in the Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, a member of the Berkeley Agroecology Lab. And by virtue of sitting at this table as a moderator, an honorary member of the social sciences.

His research focuses on supporting transformations of our agricultural system from one that is currently reliant on intensive synthetic inputs to one based on ecological processes. He’s interested in how diversified biologically-based farms affect soil health, resource use efficiency, and resilience to environmental change, especially drought. He has a PhD in Ecology from UC Davis and a BA in Molecular and Cell Biology from Vanderbilt University. So without further ado, I will turn the panel over to Timothy– Tim’s capable hands.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Thank you Cori, and welcome everybody. In many ways, agriculture in California is really a study in apparent contradictions and extremes. It’s where water makes crops blossom in the desert but leaves behind soils too salty to farm. It’s where some farmers can get rich growing high value crops, but farm workers are left as among the most vulnerable and marginalized people in our society.

Where the largest synchronous bloom of flowers occurs in the world in the Central Valley with almonds every spring, but where the loss of habitat and pesticides make much of the landscape too toxic for bees. And where some of the most advanced and innovative agroecological farmers, who have inspired generations of other farmers and activists are neighbors with some of the most intensive, chemically-dependent farms in the world. So I could go on.

And so but the question we have for us today is, what does the future hold for California? Do the seeds of a more sustainable and equitable future for California agriculture lie somewhere in all of these contradictions and extremes? Is it waiting to germinate and grow? So I think our panelists will help us answer these important questions.

And just to give you a little bit of a preview, we’ll have three presentations from each of our panelists in turn, and then we’ll have time for questions and answers after that. And so I’ll introduce each of them prior to their presentation, and I want to start with Dr. Federico Castillo. And Dr. Castillo is a lecturer in the Department of Ethnic Studies here at UC Berkeley and a project scientist in the College of Natural Resources in my same department– environmental science, policy and management.

And he is an environmental and agricultural economist with graduate and undergraduate degrees, all from here at UC Berkeley so a long time, Cal Bear. And his research interests center on the socioeconomic impacts of climate change, particularly as it relates to the agricultural sector. He currently serves as deputy director of the University of California Planetary Health Center of Expertise, and is co-lead of Latinx in the Environment Program here at UC Berkeley. So with that, I’ll turn it over to Federico and hopefully get your slides launched, too.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for taking the time to be here with us today. A brave Thursday at the end of the day, at the end of the week, so to speak. We know that some of us probably want to do something else, but I’m glad that you found this interesting enough to be here.

I would just say that, yes, I’m a project scientist here. My research centers on labor issues, agricultural labor issues– I’m also part of an evaluation team for the Farm to School program– California Farm to School Program. There I look a little bit more into ag production rather than the labor issue, although, of course, labor is an important component of AG production, as I will share with you.

I took to heart the issue of the future of California agriculture, and I will talk about that but probably– and I know, basically, from a labor– agricultural labor perspective, what’s in store for labor and what are the implications of issues related to climate change, for example, in regards to labor for California agriculture? So further ado, we’ll– this is the outline of what I will be saying.

Basically, we’re just going to spend a couple of minutes looking at what agriculture in California means. We will talk about what farm labor, what the hazards the farm labor face. What are the socioeconomic conditions of farm labor? And then we will get on to talk about climate change and the compound impacts of the different environmental hazards the farm labor faces.

By the way, I say farm labor because that’s what I do, but other outdoor labor folks face similar situation. Construction workers and folks who work on the highways, fixing potholes or whatever they do, they are also exposed to these environmental hazards. And then we’re just going to close with a few remarks. OK. So this is what California agriculture looks to you– looks nowadays. These are the principal crops in California, the California Rural sector so to speak.

So milk and cream is the biggest value. These are at least by value. Cattle and calves is number three. Pistachios is– I don’t know, number 6 or something like this. But the most important thing that I want to point out is that on the right column, it looks pretty much like the left column. So California’s main crops have not vary greatly over the last few years. They remain pretty steady. Pistachios– they were– they’re number six. There were– now, they’re number five.

And so some– did you have a new comer? Carrots, for example, or one that left the top 10. But basically, California Agriculture looks very similar. Why is it relevant? Because there is labor associated with these crops. And some of these crops are labor intensive, where others are not. And so it just set the stage. These are the counties with the highest value on agricultural production. And as you can see, a lot of these ones are– well, in fact, except Ventura and Imperial, they all are in the Central Valley or the North part of the country. Right? Yolo County– or Yolo is not even there. San Joaquin, Merced.

And so, again, if you were to look at this table 20 or 15 years ago, it would look very similar. The Central Valley has remained the main agricultural production section, geographical area, together with Imperial. So what does agricultural labor look like in the state of California? And by the way, if you were to look at North Carolina or you were to look at other states, it would pretty much look like this. Most of the farm workers are from Mexico.

There is a fairly significant number– 7% of Central Americans. Although I will say Central Americans are probably heavily undercounted for all kinds of reasons. And then there is a few United States, but in these United States citizens, there is a bunch, of course, Latinos and Latinas present in that labor force. It just means that they were born here. This is what the demographic picture looks like.

Most of the folks are fairly young– between 20 and 50 years of age– as you can see here, I will say that– that said, the agricultural labor force in California is becoming older for all kinds of reasons. The militarized border implies that there is less flux of individuals coming in. And so that means that there is no– that renovation, that revolving door that used to be from the rural areas to Oakland or to San Francisco to do something else is just not happening. Folks are pretty steady there.

The agricultural labor force is becoming less first generation. Meaning children don’t want to work in the fields, where their parents worked. And so they go elsewhere, and that also contributes to an older labor force. The average age is 41 years old. If we had taken that number, if you look at the agricultural census about 20 years ago, that means that’s about 10 or 11 years younger. I mean, for the– although it doesn’t look like a big change, demographers will, like, blink at this, right? Change of that.

And about 50% do not have authorization to work in the United States. And that probably is also– that number is probably an undercount. With all the implications that we have today with the new administration– I mean, we can talk about that. There is a big debate whether Trump actually is going to go after labor in agriculture because his constituency is farmers, and he didn’t want to mess around with that or say that, yes, he will do that. That’s a different conversation, of course.

This is the research team that I work with. One of them here present, Michael Wehner, in the hat, but I like to work with a lot of different folks. So we work with demographers– Professor Carr on the left, and Armando Sanchez, an economist. And of course, we have our stellar undergrad student working with us, Montserrat Hernandez on the top– on the bottom right.

Most of my work is funded for these folks– by Alianza and the University of California Global Health Institute. But again, I do a lot of work with the state of California through the grant on the Farm to School Evaluation Team. So this is the– I’m going to share with you, and then talk about the future here. These are some of the top producing counties in the state of California on the left, and on the right, you see the heat incidence.

And as you can see, heat incidence matches almost to a tilt where the most agricultural production in California is. That means that the labor force is very exposed to heat in those states. So what we did there was we looked at how agricultural production. And you will see a progression and what it means, in my opinion, for California agriculture. Here we look at how heat impacts agricultural productivity through a measure called a metric that we call the farm labor requirement.

And what does it mean for agricultural production? In other words, farm workers are exposed to heat. They in turn become less efficient for obvious reasons. They are more prone to accidents. They might even miss days of work. And so that means that there is less tons of stuff being harvested out there. And we did this. This is the method that we did– a very simple thing. And what we find is that for crops that are highly labor intensive, there is a 5% incidence in agricultural production. Meaning if there is a lot of labor use on these crops, they are impacted the most. That kind of makes sense. We just happened to quantify the obvious from an economic perspective.

For crops, this means onions, watermelons. And 5% doesn’t seem a lot, but when you start adding things up, it’s on the millions of dollars. And for other crops, less labor intensive, such as say, onions that are now being mechanized and others– the impact is less. So what does it mean? It means that with a very steady labor force in the future, with the current steady labor force, farmers can expect to become less and less able to hire, and that the only salvation for agriculture will be technological change. Meaning some crops will have to become more capital intensive in terms of machinery.

And if that doesn’t happen, then there’s going to be some adjustment because you cannot even– even if you have more land available to you, you don’t have the labor to satisfy that, then you cannot just produce. And we do that in another study later. But the most important thing for me is the farm workers are exposed to double whammies– double, double threats. In this case, we did COVID and heat because COVID we did a study in year 2021.

Early 2021, we surveyed 380 farm workers, and we asked them if they have been impacted by COVID and by heat and if they have reduced the number of hours and whatnot. We were surprised. We thought that farm workers were just going to decrease the number of hours due to disease, either COVID, or due to heat exposure. It turns out that that is not the case. Workers and– we did a lot of focus groups here and whatnot. Workers went on to work with COVID, and workers– even in the temperature or the heat index, which is what we use– was reaching, say, 105 or something. They were still out there.

And this is important to understand. Farm workers are in a very disadvantaged position. So although this seems contradictory– oh, well, farm workers are not reducing the number of hours. Well, guess what? They have to. They’re already low income. There is a power difference between the relationship– between either the labor contractor or the farmer and farm workers. In theory, they’re supposed to leave the field the moment the temperature reaches 90 degrees. But generally speaking, that is not the case.

So what that means is that the labor supply due to the occurrence of these two phenomena doesn’t change, and that has a social cost and a health cost, of course. You would think that this is good for agriculture. I argue that given the static supply of labor coming from other countries that that is actually not good for agriculture in the future. We’re now moving to heat and wildfires. I mean, all this happens because wildfires– they don’t stop because there is a heat day or heat doesn’t stop because there is a wildfire.

These things happen in conjunction, and farm workers are exposed to both of these. And we are actually writing a proposal at this point in time. We don’t know if with the new administration that’s going to happen, but we’re writing a proposal, where we move from COVID and heat to wildfire and heat. And we use a statistical method, the Heckman model, that I don’t have the– I have the results for COVID and heat, but I think they’re boringly numeric, so I will skip them.

The other thing with agriculture and the future of agriculture is information. And so I’m part of a team at the University of California, Santa Cruz. One of those climate action grants, where we generate information with the idea the providing that information to communities and to farm workers, they will be able to adapt better to climate change. And so you have not seen the naive– the kind of wishful thinking here. You probably should.

We develop a series of tools, and we realized that this was going to be the case, by the way. But we developed a series of tools, like maps and other digital things on cell phones, where people can check, OK, I’m going to be working in this area. It’s 95, right? So I probably shouldn’t be there. But do people really don’t go there. Of course, the answer is they go. They need the money. They have to pay the rent. They have to do stuff to make a living, like most of us, except that they’re in a very perilous, disadvantageous situation here.

And so we are developing a series of tools. We’re now trying to work heavily with communities. We have met with Promotoras de Salud. Thank you, Tim– and so on and so forth– to come up with ways that actually farmworkers can use these tools. We also have anonymous reporting tools. All this is about information. So in the future, information comes through all kinds of sources nowadays. Information used to be a privilege thing.

Farmers will have weather information, but now, farmworkers have weather information. Everybody has weather information. You actually look at your phone. It’s going to rain today. Should I take my raincoat? And one things that everybody acts on is information. So what’s the future for California in that sense? The future is that unless we empower some sections of society– some sectors of society– to act on that information, doesn’t matter what amount of information is there. Right?

So I don’t have a clear answer for that. We had a meeting today. And again, we’re consulting communities and our ministry of information and so on and so forth. This is one of the tools. It’s a map. It’s in Spanish and English, so this is the Spanish page. And you can go and check on air quality, heat conditions, water issues, and so on and so forth. And you can actually make a choice in terms of– I mean, you can think of actions that you can take, but not necessarily taken.

I always like to put this picture up because this is what the future of agriculture looks like. On the left, on the two graphs on the left, you have chemical use in agriculture. And as you can see, the change between 1991 and 2017 is not much. And if we were to have a 2024 map, it will look exactly like that. Probably redder. And on the right, you have a map that was developed by my colleague, Michael Wehner here, showing heat incidents in California. And as you can see, the redder areas of heat coincide almost to the tilt with the redder areas on pesticide use.

That means that farm workers, again, are exposed to a double whammy, if you will, and that is not likely to change. We know that organic, for example, production has increased steadily. The value of organic has increased as well. But that doesn’t mean that you change much in the future. I am a big believer in community-oriented solutions. That’s what we’re doing at the project that I just mentioned in regards to information. This is one example.

These are mobile stations that clean air and provide shade for farm workers. These are prototypes, of course. You can see there are solar power, and they help to cope with that double whammy. This was a product developed by the Leap institute– I’m almost done here– together with the California Department of Energy. And this is the kind of solution that will be into the future, where you have to come up with things that, otherwise, wouldn’t have been thought of in terms of solutions on climate change adaptability.

So what are the pros moving forward? What do we need to do with California in terms of policies and farm workers, which are a key component of the agricultural sector, of course? Must be grounded in community needs. In other words, consult, consult, consult. Sacramento is great with regulation, but in terms of what needs to be regulated, the matrices, the numbers, they need to be consulted. They need to be practical. Farmworkers need to be consulted about, hey, is 80 degrees OK to stay out there? Is 85? We don’t know. And the farmworkers tell us.

And we need to empower communities. In my case, farmworkers is a tough battle. Nobody wants to give up power. And empowering farm workers through one way or another is something that the folks don’t think too much of– either at the county level or at the state level. But that’s just the only way here to go about. And with that, I want to thank you, and I hope you didn’t go to sleep. Thank you very much.

[APPLAUSE]

All right. I don’t know if the QA–

TIMOTHY BOWLES: We’ll wait till–

FEDERICO CASTILLO: Until the end. OK. Well, thank you very much. And you know how to do this.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Yeah. Thank you, Federico, and thanks, everybody. So next up we have Dr. Eric Edwards, who is an Assistant Professor in Agricultural and Resource Economics just down the road at UC Davis. And he holds a PhD in economics and environmental science from UC Santa Barbara and an MBA from the Simon Graduate School of Business at the University of Rochester.

And some of his recent publications include “The Capitalization of Property Rights to Groundwater” in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. “Creating American Farmland, Institutional Evolution and the Development of Agricultural Drainage,” as well as another one, “Water, Dust and Environmental Justice, the Case of Agricultural Water Diversions.” And so let’s welcome Dr. Edwards, and I will get your slides launched.

[APPLAUSE]

ERIC EDWARDS: I’m a economist and agricultural economist, environmental economist, and also an economic historian. So you’re going to get some history, and you’re going to get economics, and you have to sit through it for 15 minutes. So taking the topic of the panel of the Future of California Agriculture, I thought, what a great way to start to just look at what’s happened since California started and think about what changes have happened since the mid-1800s and use that to motivate where we’re going.

So in my ag policy class, I talk about I’m from Northern Idaho. I’m from the region that has the largest wheat producing county in the country. And I asked my students, why don’t we produce much wheat in California? And of course they don’t know what we produce. But the answer is, well, we used to, right? 1878, 1889. California was actually number two, I think, in wheat producing behind Minnesota in those years.

And the question of what happened– and you can see the evolution over time from wheat and these other basic commodity crops that you see growing in the Midwest now to super high value crops essentially for export. And this change corresponded with dramatic changes with how we managed one particular resource in the state, which is one I study extensively, which is water.

So we have– I just drove from Davis, which is in the middle of this giant old floodplain that doesn’t flood anymore. Really rich soils that required extensive work to move into agricultural production. So diversions for irrigation, levees to prevent, protect against flooding and drainage to get these really flat soils to get the water off. And so when you look at what’s happened to California agriculture now– it’s a little small over there, but you can see these– prior to being at Davis, I was at North Carolina and then Utah before that.

They don’t grow this many of this type of crops really anywhere else in the world. So you can see the variety and just the kind of that– those colors are really representative of just the value and the sheer magnitude of the economic engine that agriculture is in the Central Valley. So there’s debate in the economic history, as it always is, of when this happened, why it happened, right? But I want to break it down in basic economics terms.

So we think about agricultural production via production function. And you take inputs, land, labor, capital, and you combine them, and you get wheat, grapes, whatever. And land is really a general term for all the fixed inputs that occur at a place, right? And so that’s going to be the climate of California, the water resources, and the soil. And so I want to emphasize– I’m going to talk about later is the climate and the water.

California is hot and sunny, which is really good for crops, provided you have enough water. And it turns out California also has a lot of water. And so the problem was just saving it up and reallocating it at the right time for agricultural production. The other thing that we talk about in economics always is markets. And if you think about where markets come in, firms are trying to maximize profit. Profit– revenue minus cost. The revenue side is price times quantity.

Wheat has a price. It’s a generic commodity. It’s a low price. Differentiated grapes from Napa have a different price, and its price is much higher. Almonds and pistachios have much higher prices. And then, of course, we get into, well, where are we going to go? What’s going to happen in the future? And there we can think about some of these cost factors.

California has really benefited from the abundance of natural resources and also human resources. The labor that we just spent 15 minutes talking about– that’s a distinct advantage. California employs about a third of the agricultural labor in the country. And that’s because a lot of these crops are very labor intensive. So that labor cost but also the water costs are important factors in production.

So I hadn’t really thought– when I agreed to do this in the early fall, I had thought I’ll just talk all about water. That talk has been preempted by events a little bit. So what do I see going for the future? Well, we have the underlying water and climate issues that you’re all already aware of right. But then we have these big looming issues that are maybe more near term issues of potential trade wars and potential changes in immigration policy.

So I’m going to talk about those two quickly here and then get into the water stuff. So we talked a lot about ag labor. I just want to emphasize a couple points from an agricultural production side. One third of the US agricultural workforce is employed in California. And part of the reason is– and I just ran by some vineyards being right hand trimmed yesterday. A lot of these high value crops are more labor intensive than growing corn in Iowa, right?

And so you have a lot of ag labor here. And a lot of that ag labor is what we would call undocumented, right? And you can see that evolution over time. And I was discussing this and trying to explain it like– it seems to me that this is not just in terms of who’s being hired, but these are all due to policy changes, right?

The demand is there. There’s labor there, but over time, the forced use of this undocumented labor force, which, as Federico pointed out, puts the labor in a very vulnerable position for a variety of reasons. So what happened during the last Trump administration? What’s going to happen to this one? There was a pronounced effect on immigration during the last Trump administration. We expect that to probably happen again.

That raises the cost of agricultural production. In the long term, that’s less clear what’s going to happen. But these are important, large underlying factors that are changing in terms of markets. And we’ll go through this quickly. Last Trump administration starts a trade war with China. Don’t import certain things from China. What does China hit back at? Well, the US is the largest agricultural exporter in the world. So of course, if you’re in a trade war with the US, the thing you put tariffs on are agricultural products, right?

So China hits back with tarriffs on ag exports. And you can see the total cash receipts from California’s ag production are about $60 billion. The export value is about 20– almost $24 billion. Right? So a huge value added of California agriculture is the export, right? Almonds, pistachios, things like that are almost exclusively grown in California.

And so some economists in my department did an analysis and say, well, under certain tariff scenarios, retaliatory tariffs scenarios, California agriculture could lose up to $6 billion, so up to a quarter in some cases– more extreme cases of agricultural export value due to these tariffs. In the short term, again, that’s bad. What happens in the long term? Well, generally, other countries are going to shift away from US imports, and that’s going to be problematic for California agriculture.

All right. So moving beyond– those are the standard economist things, open markets. Better flow of labor makes everyone better off. Let’s talk about water, which is really what I study. I think as this image points out, you can see these circles on the right of the amount of water used for urban uses, agriculture, streams, and rivers. California is not a dry state, right? That’s 65, 74, 82 million acre feet of water.

An acre foot of water in California is going to be two, three, four person households it would support. That’s a lot of water. It’s just the timing and location isn’t necessarily where you want it. Most of the water comes in Northern California. A lot of the population– a lot of the agriculture is in the Southern Central Valley or in Southern California. So we move the water around. You see all that infrastructure there.

So the other important factor– and I’ve slowly come to appreciate this over time– is how important water is to adapting to heat in agriculture. From a crop physiology point of view, water and heat are inextricably linked. Water is how– just like us, water is how plants cool down. Water helps plants grow. If you spray them with water, it cools them off. You can even spray them with water to warm them up if it’s going to freeze.

So water’s a great way to be resilient to climate, but that means having water. And so in California, a lot of times we talk about markets, and the reason for that is because water was allocated back in those early times in 1878. And allocated under a variety of different doctrines but mostly under a prior appropriation doctrine of first in time, first in. Well, not necessarily the first person who started using water is the highest or most important use today– or highest value or most important use.

And so there needs to be a way to reallocate water. In particular, we’re thinking how do you reallocate scarce water resources during a drought from maybe senior water rights holders who are doing some low value agriculture to maybe higher value agriculture, trees, grapes that need water, or else they’re going to lose their full investment? Or to cities or to environmental uses, right? How do you maintain stream flows for salmon during the dry times and things like that?

All those later uses I’ve talked about tend to be higher value than the typical use in agriculture, even for productive or productive agriculture in the Central Valley. And so some of the work I’ve done on the Salton Sea offers an example. So water markets and markets in general work to reallocate goods and services in mutually beneficial exchanges. But the Salton Sea offers a key example of some of the risks associated with this as well, right?

So in the Salton Sea, which has one of the largest irrigation districts in the country, the Imperial Irrigation District near it, right in Imperial County, has been diverting water, owns a majority of California’s water rights to the Colorado River– about 3.1 million acre feet. And from that, those water rights, they irrigate a large amount of Imperial County. A portion of that– maybe about a third of that water that they irrigate– runs off the cropland and into the Salton Sea. And it’s been maintaining the Salton sea’s elevation for 100 years or more.

Well, imperial is under a lot of pressure because California is using too much Colorado River water to reallocate some of the water. So they conducted a huge water transfer to the city of San Diego, San Diego County. And after doing that, the way they did that was they upped the efficiency of their water use, which meant they lined their canals. They reused tail water that ran off the fields to irrigate again and became very efficient. That also meant the water went to crops, not to Salton Sea.

So Salton Sea has been shrinking. And what we’ve been showing is that there’s increasing dust pollution as a result, and that dust pollution disproportionately affects disadvantaged communities in the region. And so water– great adaptation to climate change, but there’s risks with reallocating water. And then groundwater, and I think in the near future, the implementation and whether it’s implemented of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act is going to be the key driver of agricultural change in California.

So this figure over here shows the potential land flowing in the Central Valley as a result of the need to pull agricultural production out to reduce water use, to meet sustainability goals under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. So the blue on the right is without trading. The dark blue is without trading. The light blue is with trading. And so there’s going to be a reduction in farmland acres, and with that, a loss of agricultural jobs.

Reallocation of cutbacks using some form of market will reduce the economic effects. So the low-value agriculture will sell their water to the high value agriculture. There are key empirical questions. There’s not a theoretical answer. There’s key empirical questions of how these affect some of the equity goals you might have– maintenance of– wells for small communities, which size farms lose their water or gain their water and so on.

There’s some evidence that for certain– and to what extent do markets– we know that they’re going to increase value because that’s what they’re designed to do. To what extent do they increase or decrease the amount of agricultural jobs? These are all empirical questions because we don’t know. Does the water switch from low productivity to high productivity, low labor force to high labor crops or not?

And so there’s a lot of open empirical questions to understand in groundwater. And I’ll just add as a concluding remark here that we’ve done some work on the history of irrigation in the US. And groundwater has really been the key throughout the country to climate resilience. So you see areas that were able to put in wells– like the areas that were affected by the Dust Bowl in the 1930s. See virtually no losses, even in the most severe droughts because they’re able to tap that groundwater year in and year out. And that’s going to be true in the Central Valley as well because that’s a key adaptation to climate change is the accessibility of groundwater. All right? Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Our last panelist, Dr. Julie Guthman, is a distinguished Professor Emerita at UC Santa Cruz and principal investigator in the UC Agrifood Food Technology Research Project. Her interests include California agriculture, alternative food movements, food and agricultural technology, international political economy of food and agriculture, environmental health, political ecology, race and food, and more.

And so some of her past books and publications include things like the Problem with Solutions, Why Silicon Valley can’t Hack the Future of Food, Agrarian Dreams, The Paradox of Organic Farming in California. So during my own PhD, that was a critical book that I read. Wilted Pathogens, Chemicals, and the Fragile Future of the Strawberry Industry. And Dr. Guthman received a PhD in Geography from here at UC Berkeley.

And she was the recipient of a 2023 Distinguished Career Award from the American Association of Geographers, as well as a number of other awards for her work. And so with that, I’d like to welcome Julie.

[APPLAUSE]

JULIE GUTHMAN: Thank you. I just retired, and I hear panel I think, OK, I get to sit. I don’t have to do slides. I have to get out of my sweatpants to be sure. So if you don’t mind, I’m going to sit here. Is that all right? OK. Thanks. And you can hear me. So Tim just mentioned a few of my books, and what I want to do today is position my thoughts in relationship to these three major research projects. Not the only research projects, but three major projects I’ve done over my career that really represent three different directions for California agriculture.

So what I’m going to do is just briefly review some of the findings, and then from each of those– and then do a little bit of prognostication for the future, for what it’s worth. So my first research– this feels loud to me. OK. OK. My first research project was on organics. It was my dissertation project that I conducted here at Berkeley. Now, it just went away. OK. I guess it turned out. And I did that research in the 1990s when organic had just evolved from being a more hippie social movement into more of an industry.

And at the time, I came in very empathetic to agroecological practices and still am, but as I found not a lot of organic growers, particularly those transitioning to organics, were really abiding by those practices. And I really identified two reasons for that. One is the whole system of regulation that developed around organics, about which I could talk for a very long time– but namely, standards and certification really encourage the least common denominator of organics.

And so a lot of– particularly the newer growers would find inputs that could substitute for their disallowed inputs in organic systems. But the other thing is it was really hard for organic growers to escape the legacies of industrial agriculture in California, and that includes high land values that keeps coming up in all of my research projects because crops are– I mean, agricultural land values are based on what kind of crops you can grow there.

And so over time, land values have become very high. Plus, with all the urban pressures on land values as well. Use of marginalized labor– this is how– this is also baked into organic agriculture. Low wage, politically marginalized labor. Crop specialization for historically– California agriculture was divided into different zones, where you’d grow different crops, and different marketers developed around those crops.

And so growers have worked with particular marketers and particular crops, so that’s anathema to a more diversified farming systems. So lots and lots of like legacies of industrial agriculture have made it really hard to do agroecology just because of these common existing relationships. But that said, I mean, some farmers have shown us a different path. And those that– and there’s quite a few organic growers in California. And those that are farm truer to agroecological ideals tend to have to really break those constraints in different ways.

They may farm in areas that are lower land values out of the main agricultural zones. They may have more diversified farming systems, and so that allows them to employ labor differently. Still often low wage undocumented workers, but maybe there’s more variety in the work patterns. They sell differently. They’ll sell– they sell more to restaurants and to direct farming to direct market. It’s like farmers markets and CSAs and so forth.

So and their own commitments have made them farm differently. So organics has been a mixed bag. Lots of industrial organics, as I’m sure you’re aware of, but lots of people showing different way. And even those who practice industrial organics at least are reducing their use of toxic pesticides. So the organic movement and industry has shown us better ways to farm– not perfect ways to farm, but better ways to farm.

But right now, it’s only 9% of farmland in California, which is actually quite significant compared to the US, which is only 1% of farmland or less is an organically produced crops. So that’s all I can have time to say about organics for now. Industrial– so as an agrifood scholar, as an agrifood geographer, I’ve studied and taught a lot about the history and political economy of industrial agriculture, and particularly in California.

My most intensive direct research on this topic has been a project– was a project on the strawberry industry and its dependence on highly toxic soil fumigants. So soil fumigants are used before you plant any crops to kill soil borne pathogens. And because farmers– fumigation was widely adopted in the 1960s. And it allowed farmers to grow strawberries that are very prone to pathogenic organisms.

They allow them to grow on the same blocks year after year, rather than rotate other crops around or just give the soil a rest. So fumigation really, really intensified the strawberry industry and allowed it to become the industry it is today. You saw on a slide that it was the seventh major crop in California. At one point, it was up to number four. Other things bestowed advantages to California strawberries. The coastal climate which creates this eternal spring, so strawberries can keep growing for a very long season.

It’s a three-week season in Massachusetts. It can be a 10-month season in Salinas or Watsonville and Santa Cruz County. The use of fumigants, of course, allowed the industry to intensify a breeding mechanism built in for productivity. Again, marginalized labor. Strawberry harvesting is one of the worst jobs in California agriculture. If you’ve ever driven through strawberry country, you see people running through the fields with crates because they’re paid on piece rates because the growers say that’s what the workers like.

But the workers like– only the workers that can pick fast enough to make a good wage actually like that at all. But it’s extremely intense labor. So they’re paid on piece rates, and that means as much as they pick they can get a decent wage, but it’s not a full time wage. So they end in five hours. Anyway, so all these things that bestowed all these advantages to the strawberry industry have now turned on their head.

Oh, yeah. And I already said it’s an intense pesticide regime. So there’s now tighter restrictions on these soil fumigants, and I’m actually working on a committee that’s sponsored by the Department of Pesticide Regulation, looking at maybe further restrictions on two other fumigants, which is totally freaking the strawberry industry out. Labor shortages– I mean, when I was doing my research five or six years ago, growers were bitterly complaining of labor shortages. And the labor shortages exist in part because they don’t want to pay decent wages but also because of our strict border policies.

And we’ve all been following the horrific news this week, and this is obviously going to get a lot worse. Land prices and shortages– there’s only– strawberries do really, really well on the Coast. They don’t do so well elsewhere, and the coastal land competes with housing. Strawberries are often seen as the last crop before housing. So that’s bearing on that. And climate change is bearing on the strawberry industry as well. And particularly hotter climates bring in those– the salt or make more salinization in the soil, but also make the strawberries less resistant to these soil-borne pathogens.

At the same time, it’s really hard to change these practices. Not because there’s a lack of options or ways to grow strawberries differently– and growers do it. They do it through very diversified systems. But again, these expectations of the monocropping of strawberries, which are a very high value crop, are built into the land values. So the system’s baked in. OK. Next project, my most recent project that gave birth to the problem with solutions– was on Silicon Valley’s interest in food and agriculture.

And I got interested in Silicon Valley’s forays into food and agriculture while doing the strawberry project. They were talking about introducing soilless substrate as a substitute for soil because soil was hosting these pathogens. They were talking about robots as a fix for the shortages, labor shortages, and they still are. But silicon– so that’s what got me into the project. And that was a big collaborative effort.

So the question became, what could Silicon Valley bring to agriculture writ large to a sector that’s long been subject to technological innovation, including innovations like soil fumigants that have caused all these problems? And it’s interesting because the Silicon Valley techies were all saying, oh, agriculture is under-invested, and there’s not enough technology here. It’s like, are you kidding? This is like one of the most technically– agriculture is highly technical, particularly in California agriculture. The technologies have come often from the land grant universities, not from the techies, who I’m really particularly mad at right now for all the reasons you understand.

So the tech people were, at least– at the beginning felt like they were presenting a third way. They used the language of sustainability and of course, disruption. Presumably wanting to disrupt big bad ag, but in practice, most of the technologies that Silicon Valley has brought to bear are either uninteresting or are completely far fetched, like protein made from air. Seriously. I should have brought the slides. I can show you that stuff.

Anyway, or they are really much more of the same in terms of supporting industrial agriculture. Federico mentioned these digital technologies. Digital technologies provide information. It’s great that they can provide information to farm workers, but they’re also providing information to farmers that are supposedly supposed to make things– encourage them to reduce their pesticide use. But that hasn’t borne out.

I mean, what farmers need to reduce pesticides, for example, are better treatments or to be able to rotate their crops. Information technologies don’t do that. And I could say a lot about alternative proteins, but that’s just completely different ball of wax. And it turns out that a lot of the startups are getting bought out by big agribusiness, and that’s what they are looking for anywhere. They want their exit. And so Silicon Valley is not very disruptive at all. Oh, God. I just– oh, I’m just so angry at them.

[LAUGHTER]

So given these dynamics, what is the future of California agriculture in my opinion? Well, it depends. It depends on how much of the existing fixes are going to continue to fail. That’s what my last book was about. These solutions are problems that create new problems for new solutions and new problems. They fail. How much the public resists and asks for something different?

I mean, when you do see major changes in California, agriculture is often come from the public. The specifics– how this Trump administration is going to play out, particularly the deportations. Obviously, so much hinges on that. But my crystal ball says that with– that, basically, things are going to be more of the same. Drawing from a little bit of each of these past technologies to create the future. So I think industrial agriculture is really cheap.

And one of the reasons that some of the Silicon Valley technologies have not taken off is they actually can’t compete with that cheapness. They’re banking on the system to fail, and it actually doesn’t fail very easily because it’s subsidized in all sorts of ways. And the tech sector, again, is just delivering more intensification in partnership with incumbent corporations– basically replacing or trying to– maybe usurping a little bit what universities have been doing.

But no, I don’t think we’re going to be eating food created in vats or meal in the pill again because I don’t think it can compete yet with the cheapness of industrial agriculture. And I do think the alternatives will continue to thrive. I mean, there is a significant alternative food sector that creates great food, in my opinion, sells beautiful produce– farmers market, et cetera. Raises cows differently– I like all that stuff, but it still depends on high end markets.

And so basically, there’s no regulatory or state mechanism to drive widespread adoption. So it’s all depending on people willing to pay more for their food. And what’s interesting about juxtaposing the organic sector from the tech sector is organics have gotten so much attention over the years. Everybody talks about organic food, but it’s still a small percentage. While the tech people, they got money thrown at them to do silly stuff.

So in short, no, I don’t think the new technologies can save us. We have to– we have to find ways to address the long-term legacies of industrial agriculture that are built in, are baked in. We have to find ways to address highly valued land. The use of politically vulnerable labor, specialized marketing arrangements. So we really can’t address any of that without some pretty dramatic policy changes. And we all know that and here we are. Here we are in this moment in 2025 trying to hold on to a sliver of humanity. So that’s not a very optimistic look, is it? But there you have it.

[LAUGHTER]

[APPLAUSE]

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Thanks so much, Julie. We’ve heard about so many of the challenges– water, heat, justice for farm workers, land values, the lock-ins that keep the legacy of industrial agriculture in its place here, constrain our options for change. And I think at least one thing is clear. There’s not an easy pathway forward. I certainly have plenty of questions, but I don’t want to be selfish. So let’s open it up to our audience. And my first hand I see is back there. Yeah.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK. Good afternoon. My industry specializes in consulting for cannabis in Northern California. And since this seminar is about the future of agriculture in California, I didn’t hear you mention cannabis at all. Just a rough cut. What do you guys think the future is? Crystal ball.

JULIE GUTHMAN: Take that briefly. I mean, the future is now. We’re already seeing the similar dynamics. Is a lot of the Industrial players are kind of– now, it’s legal. Now, the industrial players are taking over and squeezing out the craft producers, who were growing in Humboldt forests years ago. I mean, that’s what I know. I don’t know a lot about it, but I think that’s already happening.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: So many questions. [LAUGHS] But I will just say this one first. I guess certain people within the government would say that the future of agricultural labor lies in H-2A visas. And I wonder, maybe a brief explanation of those is worthy for the conversation. But I am curious about both your opinions of H-2A visas, but also whether they objectively could fill the gaps that certainly are going to come with much greater restriction on immigration.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: I could just say something quick about that. These visas what they do is they formalize, so to speak, in theory, in the paperwork sense. There’s a person who comes in with a particular contract and then performs a contract for a particular amount of time and then leaves. In theory returns and so on and so forth. Of course, the devil is in the details here.

Number one is what are the conditions that you leave that you actually you’re dwelling, but you are here? Housing for farm workers is a disaster to put it mildly. It’s actually an embarrassment. I have been on many– farm worker conditions in the Northern Central Valley. And it’s just that it’s unbelievable that folks live under these conditions, right?

Peeling paint with lead, critters of all kinds, shapes and forms, but water quality, sharing kitchens on families, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, it’s just a water quality is very bad. The buildings are not up to code and so on and so forth. So you’re bringing an H-2A visa folks to live under these conditions. Then there is not much change here, except that the person has a paper, and in theory is not undocumented.

So I have interviewed several farm workers, who have these visas. They place them in big hotels. So they basically– a labor contractor gets the whole 100 rooms in a motel in the Central Valley, and they live there. But again, they are living five to a room and so on and so forth, so the conditions are not that good. So I don’t think that those visas solved the problem in terms of quality of life. And if we want to see any precedent to that, that will be the Bracero program, which was a visa type of situation, where my wife’s relatives came with the Bracero program, and most of them passed away, but they tell a lot of very ugly stories when it comes down to entering the United States and the living conditions.

So I think that the visa program if done properly, yes, because you come with a contract guarantee salary and so on. But the living conditions and so on and so forth, in my opinion, are not necessarily there because of the visa program or that particular program. That’s just my– yeah. I don’t know if that helps. You want to say something?

JULIE GUTHMAN: We should take another question.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: OK. Sorry it took forever. Sorry.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Red shirt, right here.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you. I’d like to thank the panelists. I’ve learned a lot today. And I also have a lot of questions. Federico, I’ll hit you up later. My question is for Eric. And you talked about groundwater, and my impression– and I can be very wrong on this. Is that a lot of the groundwater is ancient from aquifers, and it’s not really sustainable. Am I mistaken about that? Is groundwater a sustainable resource?

ERIC EDWARDS: So in California in general, yes, but basins vary. So for instance, in the Central US, the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma is over the High Plains or Ogallala Aquifer. That’s basically fossil water. So everything they’re pulling out– maybe a tiny bit of recharge. But there’s no way to make it sustainable and do agricultural production.

In California, a lot of the Central Valley aquifers are recharged from the overall hydrologic process coming off the Sierra Nevada. And they could be managed sustainably. They’re not in part because it’s difficult to reach agreements among all the users in a basin on how to do that. And so what you see is and– but it’s very spatially heterogeneous. So what you see is these areas where there’s rapid depletion.

And what a hydrologist will tell you is, yeah, those– essentially to get the water levels back up, you might have to wait 100 years. So the scale of our lifetimes maybe some of those are being mined essentially down, but other areas manage recharge. There’s much more potential to bring things into sustainable management. But I think overall, especially South of the Delta, there need to be cutbacks across uses to bring them back into sustainable levels of use.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Up towards the back there I see a black sweater maybe.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you. We’ve talked obliquely about the federal government, but it strikes me that the state government is actually really, really important in all of your presentations. And it seems like– I really appreciated you saying, oh, Sacramento is good at creating regulations. They’re really bad at enforcing them, right?

On the one hand, they’re really good at enforcing at least somewhat the rules around pesticides and strawberries, right? Labor regulations, terrible. And so it seems like the real question about sigma and its eventual impact on California agriculture really comes down to, do you think the state will actually enforce it? It seems to me like the real unifying question for all of your presentations is, is California going to continue to have the get rich now strategy, or are they going to try and enforce regulations that would make California agriculture more sustainable?

ERIC EDWARDS: I guess I will just address that Sigma aspect. I think there is an open question of whether there’s a stick and so to speak of getting different basins to collectively manage their groundwater. And I think in some sense, the way Sigma is set up will make it difficult in the long run for California to enforce things because they’ve essentially said that basins get to choose what sustainability means.

But then they have an extensive set of rules that define what sustainability is. So be it’s not going to be clear IS a basin in sustainable use or not, which will leave a lot of questions unanswered. I think in my own research we’ve looked at what are the drivers of difficulties in managing groundwater basins across the US and across the world. And fundamentally, it’s that there’s just a lot of heterogeneity in what people want to do with the water.

And what you see with Sigma is what you see in a lot of cases, where you get fractionation across these basins. So you have one groundwater basin, but they split off into different groups, who want similar things. And maybe within their group they can choose we want to pump this much. We want to pump this much, but they’re trying to manage the whole basin together, and that makes it very challenging. I think the opportunity of sigma is to figure out a way to compel some negotiation and forced agreement, but whether that or how that will happen– I’m like, I’m with you. I’m not optimistic that it will be enforced in the way that I think that creators of the law intended.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Just one quick editorial. So also we have to keep in mind that regulations have trade offs, and the cost of regulatory compliance will fall disproportionately for small and mid-sized producers. And it’s also harder for non-English speaking farmers to comply. So regulations, part of the mix but not everything. Sorry. I saw this hand here with the blue sweater.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: This question– I’m curious all your takes, but I think Julie would feel more impassioned about it. But I think we’d all like a future, where cost of this alternative food market is accessible and also regionally more accessible. But I wonder, what are your takes on– do you think that somehow in some mechanism, like, reducing the cost to grow food in a better way will actually be like one of the end solutions to improving its uptake or improving Consumers’ Perspectives on it, for example?

JULIE GUTHMAN: Well, sure. I mean, it has to be both from the supply and demand. I mean, if people have better wages, they can afford it. But I mean, the fact of the matter is that alternative systems are more expensive. For instance, if you’re using a diversified farming system, or you’re growing strawberries that way, you have to rotate it. Broccoli works really well as a fumigant, but broccoli doesn’t get as much in the market as strawberries do. So you have to rotate broccoli.

So the only way to break– maybe not making those kind of ways less expensive to grow but making– it’s like industrial agriculture is very cheap to grow, and it’s cheap because of the water subsidies. It’s cheap because of the subsidies of our immigration and border system. It’s cheap because of– it’s not cheap because of land. So it’s cheap because of the University has provided technology, not for free.

I mean, there’s patents, but develop the technology. So I think it’s really about finding the cheapness of industrial agriculture that’s the problem for the proliferation of alternatives. So I mean, that’s one of the things that’s so interesting to me about tech. Is that they think we need new technologies. We actually have the technologies. We know how to do this. We don’t have an economic system that supports it. I mean, I’m not saying there’s not things that you could develop that would be useful from time to time, but it’s not a technological problem. It’s a social– economic problem.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: This might be unfair, but I was dying to ask your thoughts on technology. This might cause a shock in the room, but I’m a dual major in agriculture and CS here, so my biggest question is how do we understand small farmers with diversified systems and try to make their lives a little bit easier if possible? So I’m curious from the perspectives and stories of you all. Is there a way we can make technology do that? Just help in any way, or should we focus our resources elsewhere?

FEDERICO CASTILLO: I just wanted to add something to the issue of breaking the logjam between supply and demand and cost and this and that. I’ve been doing some reading about institutional buyers, for example. So that’s one way to increase demand. Schools, districts, and the Farm to School Program, The Department of Defense– we don’t know Donald Trump– what’s going to happen there.

And other big large buyers could very well help to break this logjam, where there is not enough demand for products that are produced under our ecological system. So they could start demanding good quality food for our school kids, for example, which is something that can happen. But also the prison industry and so on and so forth. So that would be one way that probably some of the costs because of economies of scale could come down, if that applies for some particular crops.

I want to say about technology and small farmers. It is very difficult for a small farmer to adopt a technology, particularly if that technology is strictly tied to farm size. For example, irrigation systems. They are very proportional to the acreage, so you cannot buy more piping than you need or whatever. But for example, you look at– the other day I was looking at a apple harvester– a machine that actually goes along farm trees with suction cups and with sensors picking the right thing– the right apple.

Turns out that thing is 90% efficient. I saw it at a video during a conference at UC Davis. And it’s 90% efficient, but farm workers are 98% efficient. So they’re still not good enough against the farm worker. But when it becomes available. Say, suppose the machine becomes 98% efficient. It’s just definitely going to be a small apple growers– this thing costs money. It has patents. It’s just crazy to adopt. And so I don’t see a small farmer. So it really depends on the technology. So we have to be mindful of that.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: We have time for one more question. I think there was somebody maybe in the middle. Yeah, here. Had your hand up for a while. Yeah.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you. It was a very informative talk. And I’m a layman in the issue, but the two– all three of the panelists mentioned labors repeatedly, and I had two questions related to the labor issue. Number one, what is the labor productivity in the agricultural sector, particularly the industrial sector, compared to other economic sectors? And how is it trending through the ages? And what are the predictions on that?

And the other one was when– I’m quite old, as you can see. When I was young, we heard a lot about the unions in the United Farm Workers. What is the unionization environment today in the agricultural sector? Thank you.

ERIC EDWARDS: I’ll just make a quick point, and that is from a historical perspective. That first year, wheat year, I put up, probably over 50% of the labor force at that time would have been employed in agriculture. And in California today, it’s probably less than 3%. And so with substantially more production and more valued of production today. So maybe more than almost any other industry, agriculture has moved away from labor towards other means.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: I would agree with that. Technology has become far more– I mean– for example, you take onions. Used to be harvested by hand only. Now, you have some onion harvesting machines out there. Lettuce is another case. So of course, cotton, and tomatoes needless to say. But again, I think more and more agriculture will be more capital intensive if that’s the word to say here– more machine intensive, if you will, over time.

There are some crops that I don’t envision, right? Watermelons, for example. I just don’t see a machine picking big watermelons and putting them in crates or even the small– I don’t know how to call it the small melons, the water ones, the pink ones.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Cantaloupes. Cantaloupes.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: Cantaloupe. Yes. Thank you. And so more and more– yeah. Historically, it has been declining. Absolutely correct. But we can see it in some of the crops. Citrus is by hand still. I don’t see citrus being mechanized anytime soon. But grapes are. Grapes are now becoming more mechanized. The trend is– the writing is on the wall.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Can I abuse the fact that I have the microphone in my hand to ask a follow up? So policy regulation came up, but at– what you’re all pointing to is that for there to be actual change, something different needs to happen. And the question about unionization, I think, is pointing us there. What kind of coalitional politics do you see being possible? I mean, obviously, undocumented labor is quite politically vulnerable. What kind of coalitional politics are in the mix here to push things? Because it’s not going to come from the top down. I don’t think.

FEDERICO CASTILLO: Well, it’s interesting. I’m sorry. I have to say this. When you look at the legislature, the California legislature today, I was talking to a member of the California legislature some time ago. And this person pointed out to me that the California legislature– meaning the state Senate and the assembly– were run by folks, White folks from the Coast– LA, San Diego, San Francisco folks were running the show.

Nowadays, you have far many more members, who are not White, who are Brown folks, mostly Latino and Latina members, who are from the Valley, from Imperial Valley, or from the Central Coast, whose parents were actually farm workers. There’s quite a few of those– or whose parents were janitors or something like this. So I think it doesn’t mean that these politicians are going to be more friendly to whatever it is that the farm workers go through, but they certainly are aware of the issues that janitors and farm workers go through. It’s not that they are not majority now, but some of them are president pro tem of the Senate or whatever.

So I think that there is a potential for a different kind of understanding between the policymakers, and the unions, and others in California. Of course, Oklahoma or whatever is a different ballgame. But I will say that at least, here, there is a potential for that kind of coalition, given the composition of the state and the [INAUDIBLE]. Yeah.

TIMOTHY BOWLES: Let’s thank our panelists and Social Science Matrix….

[APPLAUSE]

[MUSIC PLAYING]

WOMAN’S VOICE: Thank you for listening. To learn more about Social Science Matrix, please visit matrix.berkeley.edu.

 

Global Democracy Commons

Making Sense of the Elections of 2024

Part of the Global Democracy Commons initiative

The American election closed out a year of momentous elections. Almost two decades on from the financial crisis of 2007 that helped unleash a wave of authoritarian, populist, and nativist movements in global democracies, a range of social and political forces have reshaped political processes around the world.

What do the election results of 2024 tell us about the health or fragility of global democracy, and how might we better understand the outcome of the American election as part of a broader global process?

Recorded on November 21, 2024, this panel featured a group of UC Berkeley scholars discussing the 2024 elections, with perspectives from different parts of the world. The panel featured James VernonHelen Fawcett Distinguished ProfessorHistory; Alison PostAssociate ProfessorPolitical Science; Trevor JacksonAssistant ProfessorHistory; Aarti SethiAssistant ProfessorAnthropology; and Kwanele SosiboLecturerArt History.

Presented as part of the Global Democracy Commons initiative.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the presentation as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

[WOMAN’S VOICE] The Matrix Podcast is a production of Social Science Matrix, an interdisciplinary research center at the University of California, Berkeley.

JAMES VERNON: Hey, everyone. Good afternoon and welcome. Thanks so much for coming on an utterly horrible day, which is maybe fitting for what we’re going to be talking about this afternoon. My name is James Vernon. I’m a professor in the history department and I’m the director of the Global Democracy Commons, which is the group on campus, which was organized this event. Now, it seems at the moment that every few weeks, we have an announcement launching a new initiative or program aiming to buttress American democracy and, dare I say, liberal understandings of it on this campus.

That’s not the purpose of the Global Democracy Commons. Our starting point is rather different. It is that the Euro-American model of liberal democracy has always been as much about containing the demos as emancipating it, and we are keen to remember the ways in which Euro-American democracy was always inseparable from settler colonialism, imperialism, slavery, and capitalism.

So while we’re interested in many of the issues that we’ll be talking about today, like the rise of authoritarian populism, neoliberal capitalism, and the planetary emergency, and the ways in which these phenomena have created a new crisis of democracy around the world, we’re also equally interested in the new forms of political mobilization unleashed by those phenomena.

We believe that some of these new forms of politics that we see arising around the world provide opportunities to realize the radical and unrealized promises of democracy to help us materialize a commons that could ensure our collective well-being. We aim to understand and propagate those approaches to democracy rather than believing scholars at Berkeley know best what democracy is or who should have it.

So the Global Democracy Commons is funding three collectives, which consists mainly of faculty, graduate students, and undergrads who are working with a variety of groups beyond the Academy to realize different histories, practices, and visions of democratic practice. The three labs at the moment have their work located in Guatemala, the Caribbean, and India. In addition, we have a Scholars At Risk program which is supporting the development of an English language version of the political diary podcast about Russian politics by the two elias Matvick and Brustofski, who are visiting scholars here at Berkeley.

And finally, we also have a monthly podcast exploring the way that universities around the world are being targeted as spaces of critique and protest, including, of course, here at Berkeley. All of these activities are traced on our website, demos.berkeley.edu. So please do get in touch if you’re interested in being involved or you want to discuss future projects. Now, let’s turn to why we’re actually here this afternoon, not to listen to me, but to listen to these wonderful people.

I hope it’s clear from what I’ve already said, that the Global Democracy Commons was not set up to study elections or to equate our understanding of democracy simply with the conduct of elections. Nonetheless, what a year we’ve had, and there have been some momentous elections all around the world, including in the largest democracies in the world, like India, Mexico, and the United States, all of which we’ll be talking about this afternoon.

In many ways, these elections allow us to see some of the ways in which political alignments and democratic practices have been restructured since the apparent global triumph of democracy in 1991 with the fall of the Soviet Union and then the financial crisis of 2007/8. So to make sense of all of this, we’ve put together these wonderful people, who I’ll now introduce. Let me just briefly say before I do that how this is going to work is I’m going to ask them a series of questions that they’re going to respond to.

They’ll be in conversation with each other. We’ll probably try and do all of that in the next half an hour or so. So there’s plenty of time for you to join the discussion, ask them questions, and for us to hear the ways that you understand the developments that we’ll be discussing. So I’m going to start. We’ll go down the row. We’re going to start with Kwanele Sosibo, who’s a freelance writer and editor, currently working as a lecturer at UC Berkeley’s History of Art Department. He’s a journalist by profession.

Sosibo started out as a freelance arts writer for various publications in Durban, South Africa, and he later worked at the Mail and Guardian in Johannesburg, covering beach ranging from labor to arts and culture. He was the arts editor at the Mail and Guardian between January 2019 and April 2022. Sitting next to him is Alison Post, who is an associate professor of political science and global metropolitan studies.

Her research, which has been funded by almost everyone on the planet, examines urban politics and policy and other political economy themes, including environmental politics and policy, regulation and business government relations. She’s the former chair of the Latin American Political Economy Network and the former president of the urban and local politics section of the American– section of the American Political Science Association.

Next to Alison is Trevor Jackson, who is an assistant professor of history and political economy. He’s an economic historian with research interests in crisis, inequality and occasionally catastrophe. So he’s well placed to speak here today. His first book, Impunity and Capitalism, is out from Cambridge University Press, and he writes about money, banking, and the financial crises for places like Dissent, The Nation, and the New York Review of Books.

And then finally, at the end, there is Aarti Sehti, who is an assistant professor at the Department of Anthropology and the associate director of the Global Democracy Commons. She’s a sociocultural anthropologist, primarily working in South Asia, and she has two projects on the go at the moment. The first examines cash crop agricultural economies to understand how monetary debt undertaken for transgenic cotton cultivation transforms intimate social and productive relations in rural society.

And she has a second project called Republic of Readers, which explores the relationship between reading, literacy, and libraries as sites of postcolonial democracy and citizenship. OK, I’m going to sit down and then get this conversation started. And I want to just go down the row here and briefly get everyone situated with the part of the world that you want to talk about this afternoon.

The outcomes of the elections in that country this year, who won and lost, and how far those results signal something changing or something staying the same in the political conditions. So I’m going to start with the momentous 30-year year test of South African democracy post-apartheid.

KWANELE SOSIBO: Yeah, so I think in a large sense, even as these elections were pretty momentous, I think one can kind of think of the situation in South Africa as largely unchanged as of now. I think the machinations of the election results, which for the first time saw the– which for the first time since 1994, saw the ANC fall below 50%, and not just below 50%, kind of hover at the 40% mark, kind of signals that something momentous is to come.

But the last 30 years have been basically characterized by a stasis of some sort in the sense that at the very beginning of 1994, the so-called post-apartheid period, the ANC found itself having to make many concessions in terms of with the former apartheid state and the interest that it represented, the population groups that were served by those interests.

And so, for example, CODESA, which took place in 1992, in which– from which came out a negotiated settlement, found it created a situation where mining, for example, land redistribution, mining, agriculture, and quite a lot of the financial sector remained in white hands. And that’s been a situation that it’s basically managed through the past three decades.

Some have characterized it as a compradorian sort of party, in essence, in terms of what it was handed and the maneuvers it could make largely because of larger geopolitical sort of happenings around the early ’90s and so on, the fall of the Berlin Wall and what that meant economically worldwide. So with it falling below 50% now, part of that is a manifestation of people’s frustrations on the ground.

But largely, it’s a part of it’s sort of internal erosion as well, which takes shape or is best represented here by the rise of a party called the MK, which styles itself after the moniker of the ANC’s liberation wing. Now, that party is now helmed by the former state president whose name is Jacob Zuma. So the party’s seemed to mushroom right under people’s noses, so to speak, right at the cusp of the election.

So it kind of took a lot of people by surprise, but maybe people who have been kind of watching the attrition of the ANC and its cannibalizing of itself internally weren’t surprised that this happened. So it’s unknown what the results of that will be because, in a way, it’s still partly a manifestation of the ANC just kind of going into disarray. But the rhetoric around this party has kind of caused a lot of people on the ground who are desperate for change to latch on to it as some kind of a vehicle that will take them there.

But obviously, local government elections are coming up in 2016. That’s where the chips fall. I think that’s where maybe we’ll start to see what decisive changes could take place, because what happened with this government of national unity in which the ANC was forced into coalition with the main opposition, which is a white-led party, the Democratic Alliance, was– and other smaller parties as well, was an attempt to circumvent this kind of rising up of the MK.

And I guess in Kwazulu Natal, where the MK is– actually stole a lot of the ANC’s ground and a lot of the other parties’ ground and almost got a 50%– 50 plus 1 majority, missed it by probably a couple of percentage points in that province as well, which is strategic and key because of harbors and so forth, the ANC was able to galvanize the other parties again to circumvent the MK, which only won 15% of the vote nationally.

But in KZN it represented a bigger threat. So they’ve been able to keep it at Bay. But nobody knows as of yet how that situation is going to unfold.

JAMES VERNON: Brilliant, brilliant. Thank you. Alison.

ALISON POST: Thanks. I’m going to be speaking a bit about the Mexican presidential election, which took place in June of this past year. What we saw in that election was the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, who is the hand-picked successor of the prior president, Manuel Lopez Obrador, commonly known as AMLO, from the Morena party. They want a very decisive victory against the PAN, which is the right of center party and a smaller left wing party. Presidential elections just take place every six years in Mexico, and there’s no possibility for re-election.

So this was essentially an election in which AMLO was anointing his hand-picked successor. And it was really a landslide, a landslide victory for Morena with 61% of the vote. At the time, Sheinbaum was the sitting mayor of Mexico City. Morena is emphasized as a left of center party in the Mexican context. At the same time, Morena won a really commanding number of seats in Congress, both in the legislature and in the Senate, and is now in a position to institute or pass constitutional changes following this election.

The results really signal continuity in the Mexican context. Sheinbaum is very much seen as carrying forward AMLO’s program at the moment. She hasn’t done anything yet really to indicate that she’s departing from that. Morena has been in power since 2018, so it’s looking like it’s going to be quite long run. Lopez Obrador had had very high approval ratings throughout his administration.

And now with this new increased control in Congress, the party is in a much better position to move forward with the program they have been advocating for since 2018. So AMLO has been an economic populist, pushing for increased role for the state in the economy, as well as for a movement towards more majoritarian control of political institutions for the country.

So he has been proposing, and these reforms are now moving forward in ways that we’ll talk about in subsequent questions that James has mentioned about unwinding and weakening alternative power centers outside of the executive. So things like the independent electoral commission, the judiciary, regulatory agencies, the press, et cetera.

JAMES VERNON: OK, thank you.

TREVOR JACKSON: OK, well, my remit is Europe. And I mean, one thing about Europe is there’s a lot of it, and it offers us a wide variety of different ways to think about failing. And so I think most of the– to kind of sum together many of the things that I’ll describe, I think we can imagine most of the elections over, not just this year, but the past few years in Europe as a repudiation of a prior politics rather than a coherence around a new one. Just by way preface, I think I would also say that as far as I could tell today, since 2021, there have been 54 national elections in the world, and in 40 of them, the incumbents have lost.

Even among those that the incumbents haven’t lost, there are different ways to lose. So one such example is the case of France, where Ensemble, which is, I think, the third rebranding of Emmanuel Macron’s party that he invented a few years ago, remains in government. But absolutely, every interpretation of that election is one of a repudiation of his party. In the first round, his party came third behind the front popular and behind the right wing coalition.

The actual election was the result of 311 constituencies having three or four candidate run offs, which is the most that has ever happened. And so his party was able to survive, but only through a series of tactical voting, largely on the side of the left to keep out the far right, thanks in no way at all to Macron’s own. So, OK, there’s a case of an incumbent staying in, but it’s still clearly a repudiation of his politics.

The other political story of 2024 was, of course, in Britain, where after 14 years of utterly murderous misrule, the Tories were annihilated and wiped out to their lowest level, I think, in the history of the party. Keir Starmer, the leader of Labor, has already seen his approval ratings utterly collapse. This was a repudiation of the Tories, not so much a move towards some sort of durable new Labor politics. If we’re able to step back a couple of years, another example that we might point to is the case of Italy, where Mario Draghi, former Goldman Sachs executive, MIT economist, chair of the European Central Bank, had led a government that he was appointed to.

They were wiped out. And now Giorgia Meloni is the leader of the Brothers of Italy Party, which has emerged as the largest party in Italy. They are an explicitly far right, xenophobic political party. Somewhere like Spain, the government survived, but at the cost of completely restructuring the governing coalition. Germany has been the great exception to the story of instability in European politics over the last couple of decades. And we have just now seen their governing coalition collapse, and they’re going to have elections next year.

So a great deal of instability. And I think maybe to pick on a couple of already obvious threads, a story in which attempts to form coalition governments have unraveled and a great deal of difficulty reconstructing some sort of political center.

AARTI SETHI: So I am going to talk very briefly about India, as we– this was a very, very significant election for many reasons. It was an election following on the last two elections in which the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is the party led by the current prime Minister Narendra Modi, had won– had done what no party had been able to do before him for the last two decades, which was an era of coalition politics in India, and had managed to take his party, the BJP, which is a far right Hindu nationalist party, to a kind of landslide victory in the parliament.

India has 543 seats, and so the BJP emerged as the single largest party in both those elections and which means that it could rule singlehandedly without the support of any other parties, which has been rare, which has not been the case in India for the last 25– 20 years, actually, almost three decades. And so it was very much an election.

And these last 10 years have consolidated Modi as a populist, charismatic leader, as a leader who, in a sense, goes it alone, much like Trump, where the party falls in line behind the leader, as a man who is able to command a kind of cross caste, cross class presence, someone who has concentrated the power of the executive into himself.

And he’s widely credited with, in a sense, running a parliamentary democracy, like a presidential– like a presidential system where he is where, in a sense, not just material power has concentrated on the prime minister’s office, but also symbolic power in the figure of Modi. And so this election was touted as one in which Modi would prove after Nehru that he was going to be the first prime minister after Indian independence, after Nehru, the first prime minister of India, who would win a third term and be in that sense, the longest running prime minister of India.

And that has happened, but certainly not in a way that the BJP expected. All exit polls, basically, which turns out were rigged, predicted a kind of landslide victory for his party. But that landslide victory did not happen. The BJP has come back to power. He is the prime minister, but the BJP and its allies suffered a very decisive blow. So the BJP has come back to power, but they have had to come back to power in a coalition government for the first time since they have come to power in the center.

And more importantly, and what is significant about the election is that it has dented– and this is probably its biggest gain– it sort of dented Modi’s image as an invincible man who cannot be defeated, because that is what the last 10 years of Modi rule seemed to suggest, that he is a kind of Teflon prime minister, that nothing he does can shake his sort of preternatural hold over the mind of the Indian electorate over the Indian polity.

And so this kind of shock and awe mode of running a government where the mishandling of the COVID crisis, the demonetization of the Indian economy, the successive worsening of the living conditions of most Indians, the extraordinary exacerbation of social inequality, the kind of crony capitalism, intense corruption in the government, that all of this– despite all of this, Modi’s kind of charisma is unshaken.

And what this election has done is to shatter that. It is to basically say that Modi is not a prime minister who cannot be defeated. And so prior to the election, he made the claim that he was fighting– There? Are 543 seats in the parliament, and that he was personally fighting on all 540. And so when the BJP has lost, and it especially lost in some of its key holds in the North, it’s seen as a moral defeat of the prime minister.

And that, if there’s anything that has been achieved, we don’t know actually what the long term outcomes will be. But this is– it is significant. It’s significant for this kind of reason, the sort of symbolic shattering of Modi’s power.

JAMES VERNON: Great. That’s brilliant. And we already have lots of overlapping themes between you, which is really great. So let’s try and make sense of these shifts that you’ve all been talking about, which with the exception of Alison and Mexico, seems to cohere to this story that Trevor was suggesting of a sort of revolt against the incumbent. Yeah, however entrenched in power they are as the ANC or the BJP.

So what’s your reading of how we understand that type of revolt, if it is a revolt against an incumbent? Are we thinking that this is– that there’s a political analysis here, which is about people’s exhaustion or loss of faith in the institutions of government and of democratic processes in and of themselves? Or the other frequent explanation proffered here is that there’s a materialist explanation, which is people are hurting, whether you’re in a country that produces stuff or you’re a country that consumes stuff, you’re not having a great time.

And so there’s a clear attempt to vote people out of office because people are having an economically hard time. I’m interested in how you would all try and figure out what’s happening, both in your own cases and in others. And because Mexico seems to be the sort of exception in terms of the incumbent revolt, let’s start with Alison.

ALISON POST: Yeah, I mean, you could even think about AMLO’s victory in 2018 as representing perhaps that shift that you’re describing. So the 2024 election really was kind of an endorsement of– a popular endorsement of the approach that he had been developing over the previous six years. The Morena’s support base is comprised primarily of the working class, younger people, rural areas, Indigenous populations, as well as those who had placed themselves on the ideological left.

So in some sense, this is a support of that program, of those groups. His overall policy program has focused on addressing poverty. And in fact, a number of new social programs were rolled out that contributed to satisfaction with his performance, although in comparative terms, I would say the Mexican economic performance has really been middling and hasn’t been by any means outstanding in the Latin American context in his administration.

But in particular, the rhetoric that Morena has used and that AMLO has used is really sort of an anti-system rhetoric that maybe we could tie to these other cases. So it’s very much of a us versus them. We are the masses versus the elites type rhetoric, which he exemplifies in his personal style refusing to use the presidential plane, reducing salaries, his own salary, those of top bureaucrats, railing against the conservative media.

And then looking for ways in which to elevate popular opinion but in a way that is not necessarily systematic in the same way that we might have an election. So for example, structuring ad hoc referenda on public projects and then canceling them. So for example, there was a long running construction project for a new airport for Mexico City. They put that up for referenda.

It didn’t win, and so they went to instead expanding an existing military airport instead. So arguably, taking decisions where the public didn’t necessarily have full information, putting it out to public vote, et cetera. He’s also elevated, very visibly, the role of the state vis a vis foreign investors. So strengthening state-owned enterprises by restricting opportunities for foreign investors in those areas, sometimes in ways that conflict with his own government’s environmental objectives.

So, for example, giving more control to the state electricity monopoly in the generation space when it was foreign investors bringing in the green investment into that sector. But the kind of broader picture is consistent with this kind of anti-system, anti neoliberalism approach that represents a repudiation of prior approaches.

And I’d say the final example of that is turning to the sort of an emphasis on nationalism that we see in things like turning to the military to perform functions that wouldn’t necessarily have been traditionally performed by the military, like managing public works projects or turning the war against cartels away from state level or municipal police officers to the military.

JAMES VERNON: Brilliant. Kwanele, do you want to talk about where you think that the– taming is the wrong word, but the shrinking of the ANC base, what’s motivating because it’s been going– this isn’t the first election. It’s been a progressive policy– a progressive trend, but this election seems to have been a decisive moment. And I’m wondering if you have any thoughts about what’s driving that.

KWANELE SOSIBO: I think we can think of what’s happening as a nannying of the ANC in some way because the coalition sort of called the Government of National Unity, largely supported by the DA, which is the biggest opposition party, the white-led party with the large white constituency.

So I think in a sense, like the ANC’s lack of controls over its cadres, which it’s deployed in various government departments and so on. And that sort of deployment of cadres was a way of dispensing patronage within the party. I think that sort of deteriorated through a lack of accountability and a lack of recourse to people who were plundering the public purse.

And, of course, ANC factionalism also led to a further entrenching of patronage as a system of keeping factions in place. But that lack of governance also allowed, I think, private sector interests to thrive in the health sector, in the education sector, in the energy sector. So it was kind of good for business interests that the ANC kind of was in collapse.

A couple of years ago, I think maybe probably 15 or so years ago, there was the emergence of– with the emergence of Jacob Zuma, who kind of– I think, his presidency represented a little bit of an upsetting of that cozy relationship between ANC and business to some extent in the extent that he allowed new people to enter the fray. Much has been made of his relationship with, for example, the Gupta family, a kind of oligarchic family from India with interests in different parts of the world.

Much was made of how that was a kind of a steep descent into the pilfering of the public purse for personal interests and for interests of this family. But that represented a kind of– maybe a departure with cozier relationships, say, with established capitalist interests with Mbeki and so forth. So I think, by and large, that led to a capturing of very key strategic resources in the country, and they fell into the lap of Zuma and his cronies.

And so what I think you have with the emergence of Cyril Ramaphosa in 2017 is an attempt to remedy that, to steer it back to the usual course, which, by and large, kind of overarchingly structures this relationship between the ANC and business and obviously has colonial roots in and of itself. So I think that’s maybe how you could characterize the GNU in its current state.

But what you also have is because of this lack of governance is huge agitation on the ground from the poor masses and so forth. And that has tended to take the form of xenophobia. Like, for example, everybody, everybody, every party smaller than the ANC campaigned around xenophobia. And xenophobia in the sense, it takes on many forms. But one of the form it takes on is it’s obviously brought on by corruption within Home Affairs, which allows the borders to be porous in a way.

So this large influx of people from the SADC region and in fact further afield even provides a very sort of cheap labor pool, which– and I think in the South African case, it’s not a case of people at the bottom of the economic ladder don’t want to take on these jobs. It’s more like these people are open to be exploited by South Africa’s largely very developed, sort of capitalist markets, which can absorb them into service industry jobs.

And they get exploited quite treacherously. But the capitalist class obviously exploits this. But I think it’s also now coming to bite because it’s obviously starting to lead to huge, huge tensions on the ground. So I think that would be a characterization, I think, at this point, yeah.

JAMES VERNON: Great. Trevor or Aarti, do you want to comment?

AARTI SEHTI: So one of the interesting things about this election is that the way it’s being read by commentators is that economic issues are back on the table in a very big way. And what Modi’s kind of rise to power had seemed to do was to consolidate– and this was his kind of creativeness as a politician, ever since his days where he began as chief minister in Gujarat, was to consolidate a Hindutva, a kind of Hindu identity, which was a cross caste identity.

The political scientist Christopher Jaffrelot, has a very persuasive reading of the rise of Hindutva. And he has essentially– has this description, which is that from the 1990s onwards, one can look at the terrain of Indian political life as a kind of contest between middle and lower caste assertion, a kind of democratization of Indian politics and the Indian political field that happened after the demise of the congress.

And the mandal, which was a kind of reservations for middle for middle and backward castes in jobs and government jobs and government educational institutions and so on in the early 1990s, where a new constituency actually entered into the structures of Indian political life, who had, in a sense, been marginalized through the era of Congress dominated politics.

Which the Congress party was– post-independence Congress party very much was a kind of clientelistic umbrella party which worked through local landed interests across the country. And this shattering of Congress dominance through the 1980s and this new kind of democratization is where then you have the era of coalition politics beginning. You then have liberalization.

And this upsurge of these middle and backward castes was viewed with a great deal of worry and anxiety by the RSS and by the BJP, who have– whose entire political kind of project is based on creating a seamless Hindu identity. And that Hindu identity has been created through all kinds of mechanisms, extraordinary polarization of public and social life, the continuous demonization of Muslims and minorities, Christians.

The kind of tentacular efforts of the RSS and all of the BJP-allied Hindu organizations through society. All of this created a– very successfully, Narendra Modi was able to exploit this Hindu– this kind of massive rightward movement of Indian polity along with these new aspirations brought on by liberalization in which the economy opened and opportunities expanded, but for a very small elite.

And all of this sort of comes to a head in the mid decades of 2014, by which time you have a lot of disaffection among many classes of people against an incumbent Congress government, which is seen as having created jobs for a small minority along– and Modi is able to mobilize this resentment and cast it in this– alongside this very potent cocktail mix of Hindutva and class and caste resentment.

That has, in a sense, shattered. And it’s shattered because over the last 10 years, this mix, in a sense, has– the limit of that kind of politics of his has been made evident now in this election, which is that this cross caste identity that the BJP had created has– caste is again back on the table in a very big way.

So all of this rhetoric of India moving forward– because this is what got a lot of people to vote for him, this idea that he is an outsider against the elitism of the congress, that he’s a man of the people who comes. He’s a speaker. He’s a doer. He is– connects with the dreams and aspirations of ordinary Indians against these elite– the elite of New Delhi and the Congress party.

His cozying up to big business, all of this created a– has, over the last 10 years, alienated very large numbers of people. And so the social compact that he had managed to create, The contradictions of that social compact, of radical joblessness, of crony capitalism, of– and so his rhetoric this time, which was one of the most communal campaigns India has ever seen, didn’t work.

And so even though the entire campaign of the BJP was aimed at stoking kind of resentment against Muslims and minorities, people finally voted again, in a sense, in a normal way, which is that people voted on what are called pocketbook issues in India after, we could say, 10 years of aberrant politics. Now, whether that sustains, we don’t know. But that’s the kind of broad terrain.

JAMES VERNON: So, Trevor, how does the nativism in Europe align or misalign with the material challenge of– challenges there?

TREVOR JACKSON: Well, so I think three things about this. And the first is that I think we are now something like 15 years into a giant global crisis of political legitimacy that I think I imagine will get to the fallout of the 2008 crisis, but that, I think, began then. And that has had the effect in some cases of a crisis of political legitimacy of politics as such or of political systems as such.

But I also think that it means that legitimacy has been up for grabs and that– on to the second point, that legitimacy seems to have been something able to be seized, not necessarily by new political movements that reflect existing material divisions, but that are able to reconstitute or reinvigorate or create new forms of political subjectivity, that we’re seeing the emergence of new types of identities that are able to be articulated, almost all of which have turned out to be exclusionary and xenophobic and racist in some way.

And it seems to me that most attempts at the creation of a new– well, of egalitarian universalist left political subjectivities have been defeated, either through the complicity of the center with a far right or perhaps because they’ve sometimes failed to articulate a new vision that they’re trying to, like, recreate a left subjectivity from some moment in a lost past rather than recognizing the current situation. And so it seems that there’s been a much more successful effect around constituting new political subjectivities that are in some way exclusionary and xenophobic.

That does and doesn’t map on to the actual material inequalities and realities. And that brings me, I think, to the third point, which I’m a historian, I’m going to reference books from the past, in his 1993 book, Politics and the People, our chair of this panel proposes that we can think about elections as a kind of text to be read and a text that is written. And it’s a text in which voters act out some imported melodramatic narrative that they think that they’re living through.

And one such narrative possibility is a romance, and not a romance in a, well, romantic sense, but a romance in the sense of some self-fashioning and overcoming the constraints of society, the kind of hero’s journey. And it seems to me that political movements that have successfully implanted themselves in that way have won in ways that others have not, that the performance of not being bound by social rules seems to be something that voters respond to.

And so we get these weird things where these political leaders seem to be able to do things that we would have otherwise would have thought to be impossible and seem to not face consequences for things that we would have previously thought would have been annihilatory, but nevertheless, there they are exactly because the performance of not being bound is something that seems resonant to people.

JAMES VERNON: Yeah.

AARTI SEHTI: I completely agree with you, Trevor. And what is interesting about the rise of the BJP– and I would really be interested to hear what others who are working on these other– in these other contexts, Mexico, South Africa feel about this– in India, we’ve seen in the last 10 years or– yeah, in the last 10 years, I would say, a massive transformation in the imagination of the relation between the state and people.

Till about the early 2000s, there was this kind of rights-based framework had emerged in which the state welfare was part of the social compact of citizenship, this is kind of Yamnaya. She writes very interestingly about social policy in India, and she has this– she’s written this very interesting paper where she talks about a kind of new techno patrimonialism as the mode now of– and this is what we see in India– where it is not– it is because the post liberalization economy has been so unequal and has left out most sections of Indian society.

India is one of the most unequal countries in the world. Only like 10% of the population controls 77% of national wealth. And 1% of the population controls 40% of national wealth. And so. This kind of India’s kind of growth story of 7% GDP growth a year and so on is one that has essentially been a jobless, unequal kind of growth.

Now, the response, strangely, of the state– and it’s not strange, it’s an interesting development– is that instead of investing in the creation of public goods like health, like education, skills, infrastructure, there has been– and this is the kind of rise of this whole technology, that the state now relies on cash transfers to the poor, what are called direct benefit transfers.

So the people no longer are seen as rights bearers who have a claim on the state, but as beneficiaries of targeted schemes, women, youth, unemployed. So the people now are a population of direct– of beneficiaries, which in a sense, flows from the generosity of the leader.

And it is in this context then that Narendra Modi’s charisma also for the last 10 years has devolved on this intense publicity of him as the paternalistic leader who gives the Indian people things his face on every COVID certificate, his face on every scheme, cooking gas subsidies for Indian women, and so and so scheme for Indian youth and so and so scheme.

It’s this kind of scheme-driven politics where everything seems to flow from the paternalism of the leader in this kind of technocratic mode of governance. And all of these bureaucrats who see themselves as technocrats. What this election was interesting was that lots of people began to say, I don’t want 2,000. rupees What am I going to do with 2,000 rupees?

I don’t want 5 kilos of grain. Like, 5 kilos of grain is not going to feed my family for even a month. I want a job. We want a job. Why don’t they fix Health Just one last thing, if you look at the career of a party called the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, which came out of nowhere, it’s kind of civic party that came out of nowhere in the last 10 years, what they did was they said, we will fix schools and we will fix education.

And so that’s what they did. They fixed the schools and they fixed the education, and they have managed somehow to retain power at the level of the state because they have articulated a kind of welfarist agenda in the face of this decline of welfarism and the rise of this kind of techno patrimonialism what I would be interested to see post this election is if this older imagination of the state and citizens as having a right on the state for the creation of public goods has a way to make–

If that is again a political– if parties can continue to win– begin to win on a welfarist agenda again as opposed to this kind of technocracy that has come into being under Narendra Modi, where it’s personalized and himself and he has this direct address through cash benefits to individual voters.

JAMES VERNON: I’m going to ask you one last question, you all, because I’m conscious of how quickly the time is. So let’s try and keep it brief. And it’s really to pick up on the election that we’ve all just lived through in the US, where the rhetoric of the crisis of democracy was claimed by all sides. And this seems to be a common feature in all of the elections we’ve seen around the world, that democracy and the protection of democracy is variously interpreted but constantly articulated.

And so I wonder whether you have any thoughts about what’s actually going on there and whether there’s anything useful that we can say about the way in which democracy is invoked to defend what’s up for grabs.

KWANELE SOSIBO: Yeah, I think, firstly, to just to Aarti and Trevor, the romanticism around Zuma is kind of that he’s also been indestructible and he’s emerged after all of these attempts to go for his jugular and he’s emerged victorious. I think that’s part of his popular appeal. But to talk to the crisis of democracy, I think in South Africa, it often feels like the populace, voting or non-voting, it’s often been characterized by large so-called apathy.

But I don’t think it’s apathy. I think it’s really people grappling at where to go and what to choose, given the options that they are facing. It often feels like nobody is really up to the challenge of what the society presents and everybody is kind of using. Electoral politics as a way of looting the fiscus and kind of re-emerging as the singular political figures.

So I think, like 2021, when there was a looting sort of spree that was sparked by Jacob Zuma, kind of absconding from the state capture commission of inquiry, where he was kind of like being brought to account for the plundering of the state through this cronyism and his association with this oligarchic family that had entrenched itself into the South African state, I think what we witnessed there was one man’s ability to mobilize millions of poor people.

And the death toll of that event, which a lot of people forget, was in the region of about 500 people or so. So it was kind of on the scale of June 16, 1976, when young people were actually marching on legitimate grounds and catapulting the downfall of apartheid. But here you kind of have this party hemorrhaging from inside, and it leads to such a dastardly catastrophe, which kind of reshaped society in immeasurable ways.

It kind of brought to the surface racial tensions that had been simmering for a long time and going unchecked. It also brought into to the fore the enclavism that is at the heart of South African society, you know, the rich can always retreat to estates and big fenced walls and are armed to the teeth and they can kind of emerge and wave their guns when the situation calls for it.

And when you look at what do people have to gain and what gains do we have to show for 30 years of democracy? It’s really like next to nothing, yeah.

JAMES VERNON: Alison.

ALISON POST: Right. So I think in the Mexican case, what we see are two– this is simplifying, of course– but two quite different views of what constitutes democracy and how to achieve it. And we need to think about that against the backdrop of 20th century Mexican history, which was characterized by essentially one party rule within the context of regular elections where the PRI was always going to win. That was clear to everyone. You had opposition parties running, but the electoral victory of the PRI was just always understood that was going to happen.

And for a while, as a big tent party, they spanned much of the ideological spectrum. And it’s as you move into the 1980s with neoliberal reforms that you see these divisions developing between the technocrats who are educated in economics departments, the United States and the more traditional politicians. And at that point, you have a left of center party that breaks off. AMLO is one of the leaders in that shift, that party system, and then to eventually transition a Democratic transition in 2000 at the National level in which the center right party wins against the PRI.

And during that period of one-party rule, things like the press were not independent. I mean, they were on the payroll. Most major journalists were on the payroll of the party. Fraud was used, not always– it wasn’t used in a way often that was decisive in elections. The PRI typically won the majority of the votes outright and just padded it a bit so it looked like an overwhelming victory. But there’s a history of a sense of democratic institutions aren’t necessarily Democratic, particularly in a context with very high levels of inequality historically.

And then López Obrador in particular has a number of unsuccessful runs for the presidency before he actually wins. And he is convinced that there has been fraud, absolutely convinced that the National Electoral Institute did not administer the elections fairly. And so he builds up a new party that’s coming from a grass roots, more of a grass roots base to essentially challenge the existing system.

And so now what you see is this tension between that view of democracy, which is very much we need to challenge the existing institutions and party structure because they’re associated with this old regime with elite control, et cetera, with another vision, which is championed more by members of the middle class, educated groups, professionals, et cetera, which actually has a lot of faith in the institutions that have been developed post-transition.

In particular, this National Electoral Institute, which was pivotal in terms of facilitating the transition from one-party rule to democratic competition post 2000. And so now there are a set of constitutional reforms, some of which have already gone through, others of which AMLO simply proposed prior to leaving office that represent shifts or potential shifts from the sort of view of democracy that involves checks and balances and independent institutions kind of constraining each other towards a more majoritarian system, which is what AMLO and his movement is moving for.

And so things like. do we popularly elected judges rather than have them be chosen on the basis of professional experience and these sort of things? And that has recently gone through the Supreme Court, the move towards popularly electing all judges. They have just– in October, a new constitutional change went through that stops courts from reviewing legislation passed by Congress. And so there are a number of other proposed reforms, things like taking all of the independent regulatory agencies and moving their functions to line ministries, as well as taking–

Making the electoral officials within– basically changing the institutional structure for managing elections such that electoral officials are elected rather than being kind of an independent board that oversees elections. So it’s a lot of shifts that are kind of removing checks and balances that have certain constituencies very concerned. So just these two very different competing notions of what constitutes democracy against a very difficult history in which you really had elections, but they weren’t really free.

JAMES VERNON: Either of you want to have a very quick word on this?

TREVOR JACKSON: Just very briefly, one of the striking things about the past few years is that although there’s a great drama of these incumbents losing elections and a lot of the characters are kind of larger than life, that obscures the way that many of these elections are the result of very low turnout and some large degree of democratic disaffection. So, OK, there’s a dramatic shift in Britain, but that was the lowest turnout election thus far this century. And Giorgia Meloni comes to power in 2022 in Italy, and the lowest turnout election in post-war Italian politics.

And one way of reading the 2024 American election isn’t that it was a stampeding victory for Donald Trump and the Republicans. It was that it was a turnout collapse for the Democrats. And I think we’ve probably talked a lot, you’ve probably read a lot and heard a lot about all of these shifts of different demographic groups from Democrats and Republicans. Well, that’s a shift of the people who showed up to vote. And another way of reading this is that a whole bunch of people who showed up to vote in 2020 didn’t in 2024.

And one way that we might interpret that, which kind of picks up on some of the elements of my co-panelists here is that, well, look, the Democrats were trying to put together a coalition that, in their words, ran from Chomsky to Cheney. Well, that is itself already a failure of some sort of Democratic process to set aside the formalism of the Democratic process of not having a primary season.

If you’re in that kind of world, at some level, repudiation of that is a repudiation of a larger set of Democratic failures that have already happened and, I think, a repudiation of a willingness to believe the claims of the threats of democracy being in peril, that I just think if the Democratic Party genuinely believed that Trump was the end of American democracy, they would not be or, at least, should not be handing over the reins of power and authority in the way that they are. And so that makes me think they just don’t take it seriously.

And if they don’t take it seriously, well, then it’s hard for me to be mobilized to a politics that then would put me in the same political party as, like, a Bush era war criminal.

AARTI SEHTI: I mean, the–

JAMES VERNON: Very, very quick, Aarti.

AARTI SEHTI: Yeah, very quick, India is actually a intensely multi-party system because it’s a federal country and there are very, very strong regional parties. So very quickly, one of the things that happened in the last 10 years with the Modi regime was it appeared as though federalism is under great threat, this kind of enormous centralization of the polity. And what, again, this election is doing is hopefully reigniting and creating, again, a kind of coalition government where the BJP will be forced now, we hope, to be in coalition with strong regional parties.

So that’s one thing that is unique about India is the fact that it is a multi-party system. There are very strong regional parties which the party at the center has to make compacts with. The Modi era was, again, an aberrant era after the Congress, that is, where they didn’t have to do that. And I think Democratic opening will hopefully mean that this era of coalition governments actually comes back again.

JAMES VERNON: Great. We have time for questions, and I have a mic that you have to hold in order to ask a question. Does anyone have a question? And do us a favor and tell us who you are when you ask your question.

AUDIENCE: Hi, I’m Nat Arutasi. I’m a post-doc in history. So I have a question. We talked a little bit about the material conditions, but I have a specific question about inflation. So a lot of Democrats here have been consoling themselves that all globally incumbents haven’t been able to prevail because of this force from without that’s called inflation that they can’t control. And so I know it seems that the Mexican case proves that that’s not true and maybe a little bit the Indian case.

I also think, you know, in Turkey, Erdogan also prevailed, despite rampant inflation there. So yeah, I’m wondering if you could reflect a bit about the role of inflation in these elections and if the incumbents somehow that prevailed were able to manage it better or just the role of inflation in general.

TREVOR JACKSON: Well, everybody looked at me.

JAMES VERNON: They all will have to answer. So go on.

TREVOR JACKSON: I think my answer to that is that across the board, voters say inflation was a problem, cost of living is a problem, we want this solved. I think, though, that too could have been something that would have been fertile ground or maybe in some cases was for a set of claims to who is a friend and who is an enemy and like how a political subjectivity is constituted. Inflation isn’t just a thing that happens. It goes somewhere. And I mean particularly in the US case, when you break down the sources of inflation, it’s housing, health care, food, and fuel.

Well, OK, that’s not just the weather that happens. There are some people benefiting from those things. A political movement could have cast those people as villains who were the result of everyone suffering rather than either claiming that this isn’t happening, which the only other post-election panel I’ve been on was with a bunch of political scientists who were baffled because they felt that real wages had increased relative to prices.

And so why were people upset? Well, maybe that’s true, but I’m not sure that has been the lived experience of most people. And instead, in absence of a clear narrativity that explains how and why this has happened and whose fault it is, well, then it’s the fault of whoever is in power.

ALISON POST: Yeah, I’ll just say briefly, I think it’s also important to think about how current rates compare to historic rates and the frame of reference that people are coming in with. And I would say that in the Mexican case, historically, perhaps there were higher rates of– the rates in this recent period weren’t as different as previous periods. So you see a huge distinction though between the Argentine case elections in November 2023 and this inflation there.

They’ve had an entire restructuring of the political system because the Peronists were– lost the support of the working class because of inflation. They had just become completely discredited by their inability to contain inflation in a way that they can make up for with social handouts. And that’s how that explains Milei’s rise in Argentina.

AARTI SEHTI: Oh, yeah, in India, inflation was– it was absolutely one of the determining facets of this election. And what also happened, inflation is very high, food inflation, cost of living very, very high, fuel inflation very high. And the opposition was able to use all of this to their advantage. A lot of their ads, for instance, centered on inflation and the cost of living.

But they were also able to basically use this to target the Ambanis and the Adanis, which was to basically create a narrative about how, while the cost of living for normal people was going through the roof and people couldn’t afford atti dal kabhaab, which is the cost of lentils and the cost of flour. The BJP was making massive handouts to the capitalist class symbolized in these two industrial houses. Adani and Ambani, who are– I mean, they owned Narendra Modi, was the kind of rhetoric. So yes, inflation swung this election, I think.

AUDIENCE: Yeah, thank you so much. Professor of political science at Temple University and based at the Berkeley Economy and Society Initiative this year. Yeah, this is just such a wonderful panel. And as I listened to the different countries that were brought up and these different kind of factors, is it about anti-incumbent politics? And then also hearing about limits of explanations on politics of identity or limits on the racial resentment explanation.

And so I guess I’m just– I don’t know if it’s more of a thought or a comment, but just thinking about then where are we going, like, in the future? Is it about– At the end, democracy was brought up. And I think in Africa, in South Africa case, kind of a lack of solutions. But then Alison Post, you mentioned, well, in the Mexico case, there are these kind of democratic institutions that might still have strength and kind of played a role, particularly if you look across time of where the Mexican kind of landscape is going to.

But then when we look at the American case, we see folks who are so disenchanted with democratic institutions that maybe they’re not even coming out to vote. So I guess my question for all of you, if you have thoughts about this, is, well, what’s the future if it’s not about necessarily the politics of identity or maybe the limits to the racial resentment– or I’m sorry, the economic explanations?

How can we think about where– are we just going to continue to have these different pathways? Or how can we think about what’s going to happen next? Yeah.

AARTI SEHTI: You want to go first?

JAMES VERNON: Well, I think what’s started to happen in South Africa is that how news is consumed and how issues are understood, that has started to shift in the sense that new technology has brought about new commentators and new ways of engaging the current situation. I think, for me, I’m encouraged just listening to the political analysis emerging out of young people.

And also, I think there’s been an emergence of parties, even though marginal in terms of how much they were able to gain, in terms of percentage in the election, how many votes they were able to get, what you do have is kind of like people kind of taking this huge political shift that is still kind of waiting to be seen in terms of what it transpires to be.

I think people are kind of stepping into that breach and kind of thinking about citizen power in a more egalitarian way. And also, I think South Africa also is lucky in that it possesses a lot of soft power. Its cultural outputs continues to have relevance globally, be it in fine arts, be it in music, and in other forms of expression.

And I think that sort of creativity can kind allow new narratives to emerge and kind of new ways of breaking out of the stranglehold of electoral politics.

ALISON POST: So just in the Mexican case, I could see two possible pathways and I have no idea which one is going to prevail. One pathway is you essentially see the weakening of these various veto players or constraining institutions in the Mexican case, and you move back more into this pattern of one party dominance that we’ve seen historically. The other scenario then, which is it’s not uncommon in the Latin American context, is that the hand-picked successor eventually separates herself or himself from the patron.

And Sheinbaum is a very different pedigree than AMLO. She has a PhD in a science field. She worked on the international climate change report. She could end up– once she has had sufficient space to develop her own support network and alliances, she may be able to shift in a way that allows her to divert the kind of train from the direction that’s currently headed in, which would kind of leave more room for political pluralism in the way we’ve traditionally thought about it in an institutional sense. And so we have to see how things play out over the next year.

TREVOR JACKSON: I’m going to be extremely brief because historians shouldn’t be believed about the future. And so instead, I will I’m going to pose a question to all of you, which is what resources exist, institutional, energetic, financial or otherwise, to build a kind of countervailing politics to the xenophobic, anti-egalitarian, exclusionary politics that we’ve seen emerge around the world? What resources are there to oppose that?

AARTI SEHTI: I mean, I don’t know actually what it looks like. I think the entrenchment of anti-Muslim othering is very, very deep now in India. I think there has been a kind of deep social transformation. It’s not complete. India’s 1.4 billion people, so really, any claims to be made about social forms are always contingent.

I think the way forward, if there is one, is to really, really focus on– is to focus actually on the material conditions. They are not sufficient ever, of course. I think that’s what the rise of the BJP shows us, right, this question, why do people vote against their own class interests? Well, because people desire many things, and one of those things is a sense of self and symbolic resources. And the BJP has been able to offer those to large numbers of people.

There’s a long history to why and what. I hope that, again, that the states– that politics will move to the states in a big way because each of those have very different histories. The Southern states have deep, again, rooted democratic traditions and maybe– and those have always been very strong and vibrant. But I think that the future of what democracy looks like in India is very much an open question right now. I don’t really have– I don’t want to speculate on that.

JAMES VERNON: I love the fact that Kwanele has asked us to think about art and culture as a domain where new alliances and new visions can be enacted. We have time for one last question, which is from–

AUDIENCE: Yeah, that was such a great way to end. I hate to drag it back down into the morass of a more detailed question, but so I wanted to pick up on some of what’s been said by the panelists. And so a lot of what we’ve been talking about is a revolt against incumbency. And I really liked Aarti’s periodization schema of going back to the 1990s, the post 1989 moment in which a lot of these parties that we associate with incumbents and a kind of anti-incumbency cycle really kind of gained traction and form and the kind of identity of their politics, particularly in India.

I’m thinking of the Congress in the US with the Democrats under Clinton and its aftermath. And there are lots of things, as we’ve been talking about, that unite these parties globally, not only their emergence and sort of reconstitution in this moment, but one of the things that is also sort of shared amongst them is a kind of revulsion and a kind of– and sort of Trevor touched on this a little bit, a kind of hatred of doing popular politics or being perceived to be as engaged in a kind of populism from the left in particular.

So I’m wondering why you think that kind of style and that kind of symbolism associated with earlier moments of liberal politics is sort of no longer– seems to be kind of no longer present or sort of no longer part of the repertoire or political vocabularies of these parties. I think in the Indian case, it’s really fascinating where one of the kind of galvanizing, symbolic moments prior to the last election were these marches that Rahul Gandhi took, right?

And it was this– it was a very direct attempt, actually, to reconnect with a kind of populist sensibility and a move away from the sort of critique of elitism that had sort of enabled Modi’s rise. So I’m curious why the kind of why the kind of hatred of doing politics or the revulsion of doing politics and sort of, is that a kind of future for these liberal center left coalitions?

AARTI SEHTI: Say something very quickly? India is interesting because voter turnouts are very, very high, very high. Almost 70% of its– it’s very high voter turnout. You’re absolutely right. I think one of the things that they are doing, especially the Congress, Rahul Gandhi’s marches were a way to re-mobilize, re-energize a Congress base where the cadre-based party had basically– its own internal structure had been completely, like– it had been decimated, really, over the last 20 years for all kinds of reasons.

But I think much of the energy and invigoration of the opposition in this election came from the opposition parties doing politics again, especially the Congress party, very, very much so. And Rahul Gandhi saying we’re doing– we’re going out to the people again. We’re rebuilding the Congress from the ground up. Now, whether they have– how successfully they’ve done that remains to be seen. But yeah, that was certainly what happened in this election as well.

ALISON POST: I would say in the case of Morena, they have actually a quite well-developed grassroots infrastructure that has really been helpful for them in terms of building up their electoral majority at the national level. And their form of doing that has been more of the politics you’re describing than the traditional grassroots type network that the PRI administered, which in some cases, involved vote buying and exchanges of favors.

And so there’s, in some sense, a part of the reaction against the system is a reaction against that old form of clientelistic networks. But Morena has been using grassroots mobilization in a different sense, in an effort to differentiate themselves and build up a popular support base that looks quite different than what the PRI was able to use over time.

KWANELE SOSIBO: So I don’t know if I’m answering your question, but I can say that, in the case of the MK, let’s take this party that’s kind of eaten what was remaining of the ANC majority, at the moment, it’s kind of starting to recruit, credible leaders from other formations to the left of the ANC, in particular the EFF. It could go either of two ways, right, because on one sense, you get the sense that it’s working backwards, right?

It comes out of this fissure of the ANC, but it suddenly realizes that there’s real people’s aspirations that are also in its hands, firmly in its hands now. And I think it’s starting to build structures and it’s starting to recruit certain people who are considered credible, particularly in terms of their political capabilities. So I think for some people, they do see a real opportunity kind of emerging out of this as a way of this party being somehow a vehicle to provide the opportunity for a new politics to emerge.

TREVOR JACKSON: I mean, I think–

JAMES VERNON: Try and keep it hopeful again. Don’t bring us down.

TREVOR JACKSON: Oh, no. [CHUCKLES] I’m going to fail at that, James. I think two answers that are related, and one is that the parsimonious answer is that these parties do what their donors want them to do. And in the Chomsky to Cheney coalition, the donors are not on the Chomsky end. They’re on the other end. They are opposed to doing those kinds of politics. And so for that reason, a party like the Democrats are happier being a losing party of capital than a winning party of Labor.

And their leadership– and this is the second reason– is more concerned about their power within the organization than the organization’s power in the world. And so these parties are also not only are opposed to doing popular politics, but they’re also implacably opposed to internal democracy and are very good at keeping out challengers within the parties. And so the struggle over the control of the Labor Party, ultimately resolving against internal democracy is a good example of that.

JAMES VERNON: And on that cheery note, can we give these people a massive round of applause?

[APPLAUSE]

[MUSIC PLAYING]

[WOMAN’S VOICE] Thank you for listening. To learn more about Social Science Matrix, please visit matrix.berkeley.edu.

 

New Directions

New Directions in the Study of Labor

silhouettes of various people representing the labor workforce

In this “New Directions” panel, recorded on December 2, 2024, an interdisciplinary group of UC Berkeley graduate students explored the evolving dynamics of work, management, and labor organization.

The panel featured research by three current Berkeley PhD students: William Darwell (Jurisprudence and Social Policy), Kristy Kim (Economics), and Vera Parra (Sociology). The panel was moderated by John Logan, Visiting Scholar at the UC Berkeley Labor Center.

The presenters’ studies focus on such topics as the impact of pension systems on workforce participation, labor union organizing in automotive supply chains across North America, and how different political and economic systems influence workplace management practices.

This event was co-sponsored by the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment (IRLE), the UC Berkeley Labor Center, and the Berkeley Law Program in Jurisprudence and Social Policy. 

Panelists

William Darwall

William Darwall is a PhD candidate in Jurisprudence and Social Policy at Berkeley Law working on social, political, and legal theory of work, the workplace, and its management. Will’s dissertation employs a critical historical account of the emergence and ongoing development of the science of management to reframe and reconstruct normative debates over the legitimacy and appropriate legal regulation of workplace hierarchy, authority, and control. Special attention, here, is paid to the present and future of techniques and technologies of workplace management, as the workplace as we know it dissipates, if not disappears. Prior to graduate work, Will co-founded and managed a worker-cooperative cafe and bar in Philadelphia, PA.

Kristy Kim

Kristy Kim, a PhD Candidate in the UC Berkeley Department of Economics, researches issues at the intersection of public and behavioral economics. Her job market paper studies how changes in retirement benefits affect labor supply and workforce composition. Her other research focuses on the distributional impacts on tax-preferred property inheritances and behavioral welfare measures.

 

Vera Parra

Vera Parra, a PhD Student in the UC Berkeley Department of Sociology, interested in labor history, political economy, and organizing in the 21st century. She is researching the recent history of auto industry organizing drives, both in the US and Mexico. She is interested in examining how green industrial policy– in particular the transition to EVs and attempts to secure a North American supply chain– shape organizing conditions on both sides of the border.

 

John Logan
John Logan

John Logan (moderator) is Professor and Director of Labor Studies at San Francisco State University and a Visiting Scholar at the UC Berkeley Labor Center. He is an expert on the anti-union industry and anti-union legislation in the U.S., and comparative labor issues, particularly how multinational companies treat employees and unions differently in the U.S. compared to European countries.

 

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the presentation as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

 

[MUSIC PLAYING]

MARION FOURCADE: Hello, everyone. My name is Marion Fourcade. I’m the Director of Social Science Matrix. And it’s such a great pleasure to welcome you to this panel on the New Directions in the Study of Labor. Matrix organizes New Directions panels twice a year. These are panels where the presenters are exclusively graduate students. And so for us, it’s very special.

And I’m very excited today because our panelists will explore the dynamics of work management and labor organization. And as is common with all our Matrix panels, they come from different departments, jurisprudence and social policy, economics, and sociology. So you have a wide range of approaches to this topic.

This event is co-sponsored by the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, the UC Berkeley Labor Center, and the Berkeley Law Program in Jurisprudence and Social Policy. Before I introduce our moderator, let me just say a few upcoming events. This is a busy week at Matrix. This is the last week of the semester, but it is busy.

This panel today. Tomorrow, we have an Author Meets Critics panel. A book by my brand new colleague, Stephanie Canizales. And then actually my own book talk on Friday. This is an event that’s co-sponsored by Matrix but organized by BESI. So I actually did not schedule myself for this.

Anyway, let me now introduce John Logan, who is our moderator for today’s event. John is Professor and Director of Labor Studies at San Francisco State University and a visiting scholar at the UC Berkeley Labor Center. He is an expert on the anti-union industry and anti-union legislation in the US, on comparative labor issues, and particularly on how multinational companies treat employees and unions differently in the US compared to European countries. And so John will now introduce our panelists, and thank you all for being here, and I very much look forward to this.

JOHN LOGAN: Thank you all for coming. I will just briefly introduce the panelists who are all going to speak for about 15 minutes, and then we should have at least half an hour or slightly over for questions, and comments, and discussion.

I mean, we have a great panel to discuss new directions in labor history. As we just heard, people from three separate social science disciplines, from economics, from sociology, and from jurisprudence, law. I’m actually from history background originally. I never taught in the history– My first job was an industrial relations department at London School of Economics, and I taught comparative labor. And then I was Director of the UC Berkeley Labor Center.

But I mean, it’s appropriate, I think, to have these sort of multidisciplinary conversations when talking about new directions in the study of labor and I think new directions in the labor movement more broadly because, I mean, the two, depending on your discipline, are very closely connected often.

And the disciplines represented today, I mean, sociology for several years now has had the largest sort of labor contingent within academic disciplines. I don’t know how many hundreds of members are in the labor group at the ASA, but that’s where a lot of the scholarship has come out.

I mean, economics is obviously the labor economists, people like John R. Commons and Selig Perlman were the people who founded industrial relations and sort of labor scholarship as an academic discipline in the US. And economists have been sort of central to academic debates over labor ever since then. Even although I’m not an economist, I spent most of my academic life around economists.

And law and jurisprudence too. I mean, when I started graduate school over 25 years ago, it was the sort of critical legal studies scholarship. People like Karl Klare, and Mark Barenberg, and Kathy Stone, this sort of influenced my own work originally. And now Berkeley has become very much a sort of center for the study of labor law with Catherine Fisk and others who are now at Berkeley Law.

So are we going in this direction? Yes. So I apologize for the longwinded. First is Will Darwell, who’s a PhD candidate in Jurisprudence and Social Policy at Berkeley Law. And his research is on the politics and political economy, past, present and future regimes of workplace management, broadly defined.

WILLIAM DARWELL: Yeah. Thanks, everybody, for coming. Thanks so much, Ambrosia and Marion, for organizing and John for moderating. and yeah, showing up after Thanksgiving on an academic calendar is really something. So I’m glad to see more faces in the room than I expected, to be honest.

So yeah. I guess sort of in that spirit of interdisciplinarity that John mentioned, I thought that what I would use my time today to present is almost something like a method section for my dissertation. So I come from a philosophy background but do moral, political, and legal theory of work and the workplace. Particular, workplace management is what I’m most focused on.

But yeah. Since we’re coming from different disciplinary backgrounds, I thought it might make sense to just open the hood a little bit on how I approach that as a legal theorist. So the broadest way of talking about what I try to do is try to identify what’s fundamentally political about work, the workplace and its management.

So there’s been a sort of a really, really large and cresting tide of new scholarship and normative theories of political economy, of moral economy, and the workplace and workplace justice. In general, in my view though, that literature tends to conceive of the nature of doing political theory of work in terms of the normatively salient effects of institutions of work in the workplace and workplace management.

And the main conceptual intervention that I’m trying to make is to give an account really of what sort of constitutively political about work. The practices through which we work, the spaces in which we work, which is a slice of a broader question about what’s political about the economy in general.

So just some sort brief overview of the way that literature slices up sort of potentially normatively concerning effects of workplace management. Some are distributional, some account of unjust appropriation of the benefits of labor. Fruits of labor, some economic surplus to which the answer is some kind of regime of ameliorated, either pre or redistribution.

Other sort of like dignitary effects like vulnerability to demeaning working conditions, which are supposed to be protected against by the implementation of the right kinds of regulatory guardrails. Others are accounts of ways in which people are allowed to express their equal moral agency as working people, which is supposed to be protected by some set of fundamental rights of workers.

Others are about autonomy, concerns, ways in which the way that work is distributed, and structured, and managed might interfere with people’s ability to realize the sort of rational plan of life. These are sort of supposed to be protected against by different ways of structuring markets.

But obviously, most primarily structuring the labor market in specific ways. And there’s a more general concern about domination or subjection to arbitrary control, where theorists try to analyze and examine potential schemes for rendering the kind of control that work is supposed to necessarily involve, that labor is supposed to necessarily involve non-arbitrary or subject to some kind of scheme of co-determination of one kind or another.

So in my view, the tendency to conceive of the normative problematic of work in this way as sort of a question about the normatively salient effects of workplace management is kind of downstream of trends in the social sciences on the one hand that sort of conceive of the economy as a distinct realm of human activity.

On the one hand, that’s downstream of just neoclassical economic conceptions of efficient markets. On the other hand, Weberian conceptions of the economy as a realm of necessity, governed solely by instrumental rather than intrinsic reasons.

So moral philosophers, political philosophers, theorists in general, I think, try to tend to accept this picture. But in terms of a scholarly division of labor, I think it’s sort of our job to interrogate that conception of economic activity rather than accept it and then ask questions within or having accepted that assumption.

So here, I sort of like start from what’s a really well-worn observation in labor studies and studies of employment in general, that labor contracts are radically underspecified, which makes them sort of fit poorly as an object of economic analysis. And it’s hard to do market efficiency analysis of something that’s underspecified in this way. It sort of makes labor weird as a commodity, as it were.

So then to the extent that to the extent that work is treated by market institutions as a commodity, it’s something that we literally produce for sale into a labor marketplace. It’s always what heterodox economists would call a contested economy. That’s a contested commodity rather.

So it’s a commodity that nature or the content of which isn’t prespecified but is fought over, contested between the exchanging parties. So in their model, that means that labor as a commodity is subject to what they call enforcement rents. It basically means that the more powerful, whether that’s the form of social, or a market, or other kind of power, means that that empowered party will sort of win the day in determining the nature of that commodity.

That to me is a sort of a starting point for thinking about the political nature of work, the political nature of labor, and the labor exchange, which I take to be sort of constitutively political rather than political and the effects it produces.

Another way of saying that it’s sort of like necessarily a creature of political morality. But I take that to mean is that it’s a kind of a social practice that involves overlapping confluences and conflicts of interest for which the rules that govern those confluences and conflicts of interests aren’t pre-given and necessarily can’t be determined a priori but must be constituted, authored, and maintained by the parties to those practices.

And so I arrive at that sort formal definition by some grounding work in philosophy of joint action and social practices that I’ll skip, so that nobody leaves while I’m talking. Stuff that sort of only the philosophers want to stick around for.

But briefly, I find that that literature sort of fails on two accounts. One is a failure of attention to the internal organization of jointly acting groups, which except in what I take to be edge cases, involve some kind of vertical or asymmetric division of roles within those groups, which raises the question of control of any kind of joint or shared productive activity.

The other is that lack of attention to the structural dynamics that are generated by repeated and long term practices of social coordination and joint action. So institutions create sort of durable forms of social relations and a sort of a slogan, a way of saying.

The point here is that there’s no such thing as a merely technical division of labor. Divisions of labor are always social in the sense that they’re constructive of asymmetrical social relations, as well as the people or roles that fit in to those sort of relational matrices, not to make a pun.

So since those social relations tend to self-naturalize but are always, in every case, constructed by some kind of deliberate human activity, the social relations themselves are worthy or apt objects of normative analysis and criticism. So that’s the sort of starting point or how we get to the starting point for the project.

So I use that to then reconstruct this actually existing normative debate over workplace justice. So as I mentioned before, there’s a lot of recent writing. I was looking through the list of edited volumes that I have to read upcoming. And there’s just a lot of writing these days that people are compiling on normative questions about the nature of economic organization, from the highest to the lowest level.

Yeah. So again, against the sort of construction of that normative problematic as a set of questions about what sort of positive or negative effects are generated by the way that we structure our economic institutions.

I try to look for a way of reconstructing that debate in general from what you might call something like output reasons to input reasons or sort of where I generally find a normative requirement that people participate in the processes of their own subject formation.

So insofar as the kinds of social relations that are necessarily generated by the workplace construct us as individuals on lots of different kinds of normative frameworks. The result I find is that people have either a right or relevant interest of one kind or another to be able to participate in the processes and institutions that construct them as individuals.

I use that set of core normative interventions and then apply them to a set of real world cases in the latter parts of the dissertation. So those are going to be very, very familiar. But the first is algorithmic management. The second is platform employment or platform-based gig work.

And the second is corporate fissuring, corporate restructurings that place workers at one or two or three levels of removed from who we might think of as their real employer. Some sort of dominant form in a sometimes global value chain.

So that’s, again, that’s the sort of general pitch about how I do the kind of work that I do, which again is aimed at producing work for this, what I see as a kind of a cloistered set of conversations within normative theory around what might render the way that we work together just or at least in what ways that the ways that we work together are criticizable and might be ameliorated or require amelioration of one kind or another.

I figured I’d use the last couple of minutes that I have to just say a couple of things about what I take to be interesting new directions for the study of labor. Yeah. Here they are. So first, and these are sort of basically like stuff that I am paying attention to and reading that informs my work.

One is the a renewal of a certain kind of Marxian analysis built from people call the value form reading of Marx’s work, that reads the work rather than developing a critical political economy or something like that. Like built from assumptions about the labor being the source of all value, this kind of Ricardian Marxism.

Instead reads Marx as offering a critique of political economy, where he’s using the ways that political economists of his time have analyzed market society to try to identify in a kind of a German sense of the term, critique, what are the conditions of possibility of the society that we have and what set of historically specific social relations does it generate?

As part of that, growing out of that, I mean, there’s a reading group at the Matrix, I think, [INAUDIBLE] the Matrix, on the new translation of Marx that I think is bringing this reading also to the surface. So that’s really great. But yeah.

One particular way of describing the Marxist project on that reading is the analysis of the dynamics of class and a historically specific moment, where class means borrowing from Benkler and Syed, the asymmetric social relations in the Division of Labor and the distribution of its fruits, rather than conceiving class as either an identity category, a job category, or merely about distributional struggle or the expropriation of a surplus.

Yeah. So taking class in that way of describing it is describing the set of rules in a complex society and how they relate to one another. I’ll just say a couple of things. Yeah. One is just about the changing role of labor in global political economy and the way that that is creating changes in the nature of class composition domestically and globally.

So one set of literature comes from Robert Brenner and student Aaron Benanav about premature deindustrialization and global industrial overcapacity yielding secular decline in the global economy and how that is likely to generate chronic underemployment rather than something like automation creating technical unemployment or something like that.

What I see as a really sort of related thread insofar as it’s about the declining role of labor in social reproduction is work, on the one hand, on asset manager capitalism, and in particular, Melinda Cooper, and I forget her co-authors, book on asset economy, which emphasizes the sort of declining role of remuneration from work in household and in household finances essentially as compared with Minskian households, which are making decisions under uncertainty to manage capital flows and secure their sort of financial well-being in that way, rather than primarily through remuneration from work, whether it’s salary wages or whatnot.

I think to just bring us back to a picture of the working class as the most general category when we’re talking about class analysis as constituted by a negative unity, constituted by what it lacks rather than what it has, which is namely, in the old formula, the double freedom and inability to reproduce itself apart from the work that it can sell into the labor market.

And I think that Vera is going to talk about this a little bit more, but the last slide that I have is just about renationalisation in global political economy and the reassertion of states as economic actors. Yeah. And that’s just a big question mark, basically, what’s that going to look like. But I think it’s going to have really, really significant effects on international division of labor, domestic division of labor, and class structure in general.

[APPLAUSE]

JOHN LOGAN: Next, we have Kristy Kim, a PhD candidate in the economics department at UC Berkeley, whose work studies changes in retirement benefits affect labor supply and workforce composition. I won’t take up any of your time, but reporters contact me all the time about labor issues.

And one of the things that they want to know most these days. I mean, we’ve had these strikes, obviously, the big three, involving UAW and more recently, Boeing and Puget Sound. And everyone’s like, oh, are we going to get a return to defined benefit pension plans? And I say, not a chance. But I mean, of course, it’s more complicated than that. But it’s interesting that it has become back on sort of the union agenda in terms of the– pleas, sorry. Go ahead.

KRISTY KIM: Yeah, no. That’s perfect because– so I’ll go a little bit into my research, which actually looks at exactly the movement away from defined benefit pensions to more defined contribution plans. And so sorry. Thank you for hosting this panel, everyone, and for everyone who came.

So I’m Kristy. I work in behavioral public economics. So I really try to understand how individuals behave towards different policy designs with an emphasis on looking at quasi-experimental settings, sort of in the wilds, and trying to understand through the choices that people make, what the implications would be if policy was different.

And so I will go into my dissertation. And so I’ll start a little bit more niche and then try to bring it out more towards the political movements and the unionization efforts to change retirement benefits. But my dissertation focuses on how changes in workforce retirement benefits affect firm-specific labor supply.

And this is across the lifecycle. So throughout your whole life, as retirement benefits change, how does your labor supply decisions change? And so this is in part to understand how non-cash compensation, which has become this large portion of total compensation in the United States, is really affecting labor supply decisions, especially when we think about a marketplace of firms that are offering different compensation structures.

And so normally, empirically, this is difficult to understand for two reasons. So one, there’s just very limited data on private employer pension plans. And so we can theorize how these things go. But often, the incentives for retirement plans are non-linear, they’re dynamic, and so they’re very difficult to predict.

And if you do have data on them, they’re often very limited in scope, right? So you’ll have a few years. The second reason why it’s difficult is because it’s really hard to disentangle pure incentive effects of retirement systems that we’re interested in versus selection effects.

And so what I mean by that is that there are different types of people that will choose to work for different types of firms because of their retirement benefits. And so when we study the effects of retirement benefits, what we don’t want to do is conflate the fact that different types of workers are going into different types of work, versus the retirement benefit itself changing your behavior.

And so in my work, what we do is that we study federal government workers around a policy change that occurs in 1984. And there are some nice things about this setting. So one, it’s the US government, so it’s the largest employer. In the United States, they employ about 2% of all the workforce.

And two, it’s going to happen in the ’80s, right? And so we have 35 years of their entire work history. And so we can really follow these people through their life cycle or most of their life cycle. Some people will work more than 35 years.

And the last sort of quality about this policy change that’s really nice is that it’s actually retroactive. And so what that means is that the people who start under this new system, when they change it discretely for newly hired workers in 1984, they’re not going to be aware of what the retirement system looks like for about two years, which means this really helps us mitigate the selection effects. So we’re going to have pretty similar workers but with two different retirement benefits. And that’s really the strategy that I use to figure out what happens to the labor supply outcomes of these workers.

And specifically, what we do is that we study the last few cohorts of the old system and the first few cohorts of the new system, with the assumption being that these workers are similar and compare them across time. So I can explain a little bit about what the federal government does and why and how we should think about it.

And so in the ’80s, they’re going to make this move towards retirement benefits that look a lot like private sector retirement benefits. So prior to 1984, the retirement benefit that they had was just to a pure defined benefit plan, where they provided an annuity to their workers based on their work history.

And so we can think of this as really employer-tied benefits. Your benefits at retirement really depend on your wages that you’ve accrued there, the tenure at the firm, and whatever percentage they want to give. And they move away from that. They decrease that annuity portion, and they introduce more modern technologies.

So they introduce what we would think of as like a 401(k). So what that is that you would put some of your own money away, and that’ll grow in an investment vehicle. You would get it as a lump sum, but you sort of carry the risk of outliving it.

And in addition, they add Social Security, which is sort of like an annuity, but it’s based on your total employment history. And so what we think of this is as a movement away from employer-tied benefits to more portable benefits. Now you can pick up the 401(k). You can move it around to different employers. Social Security will only depend on all formal employment. So you can leave more freely.

And so what we’ll find in this study is that this movement away from defined benefit to a mixed defined benefit, defined contribution system is going to reduce the total lifetime retirement benefits that they’ll receive. It will reduce on average for workers by about $45,000, which is pretty substantial. We can think if people are in retirement for about 20 years, that’s about over $2,000 a year that they sort of lose out on from this new retirement system.

It is going to increase the portable benefits but really severely decrease the benefits tied to the employer. But it’s not going to change anything about the quality of the jobs or their cash compensation. So they’re not compensating these workers for this loss in benefits.

And what we’ll find when we compare the labor supply outcomes for these workers is as follows. So in the beginning, what we have suggestive evidence for is that workers are quite inattentive when they first enter work about the retirement system. So they don’t seem to be reacting to early incentives in your work.

So like vesting schedules, we don’t see any reaction towards, but we see some kind of learning happening around 10 years of service towards the federal government, where both young and old workers will start responding. So it doesn’t seem to be a function of how close you are to retirement but basically for how long you’ve worked at, in this case, the government for.

And essentially, we find that workers mid to late career are the workers that really start responding to these changes and benefits. They are about 2 to 3 percentage points less likely to be in the federal workforce between 15 to 30 years of tenure. This roughly translates into a one to three-year reduction in their tenure.

And so in a resource perspective, this sort of all checks out. You have a $45,000 reduction in your lifetime benefits. And for workers who maybe face better wages outside, maybe they can get $20,000 extra per year. They work that one to three years more and make up for that loss in benefits.

And this is really going to be concentrated among workers who have better outside options, so who face better private sector wages. So that tends to be workers who start off with higher education levels, higher pay, starting pay. And it’s also going to be concentrated amongst workers who seem to be working through the government pretty quickly and being promoted really fast.

And so what this seems to suggest is that moving away from a defined benefit plan does save the government a lot of money. It saves them about $94,000 per person. But they do start losing out on their very experienced and very productive workers.

And so ultimately, because I don’t have additional data on how productive these workers are or how much they might mean to the employer, the welfare consequences are sort of ambiguous. Or like the sort utility of workers from moving to one place to another, I don’t have information on where they move.

So we have this sort of ambiguous effect. And then sort of later on in life, we see a convergence of the percent of workers that are separated because now, most of the workers under the new system have left earlier. Under the old system, they’ll start to leave as they become eligible for retirement.

And so yeah. So now, it’s sort of become this interesting stage because in the last 50 years, many employers, institutions have really started moving towards the defined contribution type of benefit, right? Because it’s more sustainable fiscally or financially for the employer to provide these kinds of benefits.

So Berkeley has done it, for anyone who works here, and other state governments are now considering reducing their pension plans and really introducing these savings. And so we as economists, we can speak to what might happen to the workforce.

And it’s sort of interesting now that– so I think Boeing is the big one that want to bring back the pension plans. And ultimately, it’s hard to give a normative or even like a positive judgment on how this might affect the employer or the worker in economic terms.

It ultimately will depend on, so I can do the financials. I can say how much it saves. But ultimately it sort depend on what you’re losing from losing these older, more productive workers. There’s a tradeoff, right? Sometimes, what we want is we want to upskill an organization. And so having these workers churn out could be beneficial for both the firm and also for the worker because now that they have benefits that are less tied to the employer, they’re free to move to another employer that might better match their skills or preferences.

But on the other hand, these older workers bring a lot of experience, and it’s hard to retrain and rehire workers. And so you might be losing out on those workers. And these workers might be losing out on benefits that they don’t realize they’re losing out on.

And so ultimately, I think by revealed preference, it seems people prefer the defined benefit plan. I think the reason why employers seem to be very resistant against these defined benefit plans is because the costliness, they’re going to have to spend, at least if we look at the federal government, at least like $100,000 more per employee in addition to these regulations that they will have to follow and promise to these employers.

And so what I’m hoping to do with my research is give a little piece of the puzzle and really show empirically with data how workers are responding throughout their lifetime, which has been very difficult to do. Yeah. And so I’ll pass it on to Vera to talk about her research.

VERA PARRA: OK. Two caveats before I begin. One, I’m a second year, and this is all very new research. So first time I’m presenting about it. The other caveat is that the election really affects a lot of things about tariffs, trade, the relationship between the United States and Mexico. Every day, I get a fun new piece of news. So I have that to look forward to for the next four years.

And yeah. I’m still sort of like– and I think it’ll actually just take time to see how this shapes what was the pattern that was established under the Biden administration and in Trump’s first term. So with that, what I’ll do is I’ll share a little bit about my own research and how I came to it. And then I’ll also offer some extemporaneous thoughts about labor and the election.

So yeah. My master’s research topic is on the paradoxical impacts of US trade protectionism on the Mexican labor movement, which, as Will referenced, we are moving, it seems clear, into a world of more trade protectionism. We don’t know yet what that will look like. But increased competition over exports in a world with less demand, and in particular, increased competition between the United States and China.

And that has had actually some interesting– it puts at least Mexico, potentially, maybe other countries positioned similarly as Mexico, but in a pretty interesting position. So yeah. I’ll say a little bit more broadly my larger research agenda, like the questions that brought me to grad school, are about how the 21st century political economy is evolving and what that means in terms of the possibilities for labor organizing.

And I’ll share I come from a background of immigrant rights organizing. It became increasingly clear to me that the pathway on immigration runs through the labor movement. And with that brings the question of what the actual possibilities for labor and labor organizing are in the 21st century for some of the reasons that we’ll mention at the end that we can maybe talk about.

So as I was kind of looking around what was happening and sort of seeing what are some of the bigger picture, bigger structural changes, one is a clear move towards more protectionist trade policy that we saw under the Trump administration but also under Biden. So it’s something that is seemingly bipartisan. And in particular, as I mentioned, competition over exports.

And then with that, under the Biden administration, also green industrial policy, which we don’t know what will come of that. But a real attempt to stimulate, to use the energy, to use climate crisis as a, I don’t know, pretext, we could call it, to use state intervention to try to stimulate investment and an attempt to bring back manufacturing. That may or may not work. We’ll see. There’s a lot of reason to be very skeptical about the possibility of that, but it has certainly changed the politics.

So that was sort of like the stuff I was paying attention to. And then I went to a Labor Notes Conference this past year in 2023 or 2024, this year. Labor Notes, for those who don’t know, kind of interesting labor left institution that formed in the 1970s with a vision to try to reform unions from within through rank and file internal movements for internal democracy.

Labor Notes, interestingly, in this moment, it is a tiny old institution. And I think for a confluence of interesting, different set of circumstances, has massively exploded over the course of the last six years. So the conference they had last year had a waiting list of 4,000 labor leaders and organizers. So something interesting happening there, which of course overlaps with the leadership transition in the UAW with Shawn Fain.

So here I was at Labor Notes. And I met some organizers who had come from Mexico who were organizing Mexican auto plants and were there looking to build relationships with the UAW, with leaders at the UAW.

And they told me some pretty interesting things. Kind of the story is like a paradoxical impact of increased US trade protectionism. The USMCA, the new NAFTA negotiated under Trump, had actually really enormously benefited efforts to build independent unions in Mexico.

And they were like, we’re on the phone every day with the Department of Labor. To our surprise, they’re really helping us. We don’t totally understand why, but we’re taking the opportunity that we have in this moment and running with it. So I got curious about this, and that’s what the premise of what’s become my master’s project. So I’ll share just a little bit about the Mexican auto industry. So the Mexican auto industry largely supplies parts for the American market.

There’s an earlier wave of plants in Mexico. But really, it grew. It expanded massively after ’76 as profits– As the big three in the United States faced competition from Germany and Japan, they used Mexico in order to be able to– as basically for parts to supply cheap parts and cheap labor.

And during this period of time, Mexico switched from having an import substitution model to a low wage export model of development. And what you saw is really beginning in the late ’70s, rapid industrialization in Mexico but real wages declining during this entire period of time.

Now we’re in the midst of a shift where the US is trying to reindustrialize by onshoring or what sometimes also get nearshoring or sometimes called friendshoring. So manufacturing in response to the Trump election in 2016 and then also in the context of escalating trade competition.

And so there are three actually tightly interrelated policies that were passed between the years 2018 and 2022 under multiple administrations. So the USMCA was negotiated, finally approved in 2020 as Trump is leaving. Negotiations begin earlier.

And in addition, a 2018 labor law reform in Mexico. And then the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act. And I’ll share a little bit about how these policies are all sort of woven together. So back up.

So Mexico has a corporatist model of Labor Relations. And this is basically from the Mexican Revolution, this system was in place, is built into the Constitution. Where the Mexican Revolutionary Party, the party that ruled as one party rule for a long time, relied on the labor movement in Mexico, on state-backed unions.

The Mexican Union Federation is called the CTM, the Confederacion de Trabajadores de Mejicanos, relied on them to do turnout and but also relied on them to control any more independent or militant labor organizing.

And so it was really like, the CTM is like a pillar of the party, which had single party control in Mexico for a long time. What that meant is that during the period of the ’60s and the early ’70s, you had under Import substitution. Basically, everybody was [INAUDIBLE] workers were benefiting under that model.

The union was quite powerful within the PRI. And then also the state supported the CTM to repress any kind of independent labor organizing efforts. There’s an interesting blip in the 1970s of union democratization, which sort of overlaps with the same period of time as you have big labor movements developing in Brazil and in South Africa. I can circle back to that.

But then starting in ’76 with the big three, beginning to produce auto parts plants in Mexico. There’s US pressure on Mexico through the IMF to clamp down on this like new wave of independent labor organizing that started, and the CTM begins a practice of employer protection contracts.

So basically, it’ll be like GM comes in, negotiates with the government of Mexico, says we want to build a plant here. They negotiate on a wage, agree to which union affiliate of the CTM is going to become the union that represents the workers. The union rubber stamps the wage and the contract, and the workers are none the wiser.

And that practice began in the 80s and then like continues Mexico’s entry into the GATT, and then NAFTA just exacerbates that. So that’s why you’ve seen rapid industrialization while wages decline for Mexican auto workers.

The question is what’s happening now? And I’ll say maybe just like a little bit in terms of the literature that I’m speaking to. So Beverly Silver’s Forces of Labor, masterful work. Who has this sort of like pithy summary is where capital goes, labor unrest follows. And Beverly Silver writing in 2003 looking for hope for workers of the world.

Basically is like it is– labor– so at the site of divestment. So for workers in the Global North where capital is divesting, that means that labor loses power. But at the site of investment in the Global South, if you have the expansion of new supply chains, investment in the Global South will also mean labor unrest in the Global South.

And she traces with a real focus on auto as like leading edge of capitalist profitability in the 20th century. And so her examples, she’s like, Brazil, South Africa, all examples of big labor unrest that develops in the ’70s and ’80s. In many ways, my question is like why not Mexico in this period of time? Why was there not big labor unrest in Mexico? And then also how do we explain the current moment where we’re seeing the seeds, like maybe little springtime of labor movement in Mexico?

And here I build on Silver by drawing on the political economy framework of growth models. So this is the work of Baccaro and Pontusson and Mark Bly. They published a– yeah. Anyways. And according to this framework, the idea is states pursue distinct growth models, importantly in relation to an integrated and also increasingly competitive and with low growth political economy.

And the thing I find very useful about this framework is it helps to think about how when growth is difficult to come to come by, political coalitions have to become unstable and have to shift and rearrange themselves. And it helps understand the kind of critical relationship between Mexico and the United States in influencing the shape of Mexico’s own labor movement.

So the argument I’m making is that the shifts in growth models impacts impact the state’s own system of labor relations and set new limits on the strategic possibilities for labor actors. And that the major changes in the US’s own growth model have in turn forced Mexico to adapt its growth strategy and in turn, its own system of labor relations is the overall hypothesis or thing I’m trying to argue.

So there’s these two phases. We’re in the late 1970s, facing rising international competition. The US, via the IMF, pressured the Mexican government to shift from an import substitution to a low wage export led growth model. And importantly, unlike Brazil, where Brazil also shifted from import substitution to export. But it was final assembly in Brazil, like final car assembly and for a more diversified export market.

In contrast, in Mexico, the real focus was auto parts, where wages must be much lower because profits are lower, and it goes entirely to the United States domestic market, which gives the United States an enormous amount of say and pressure on Mexico, as we all are seeing today.

And so in this context, the Mexican government, under the PRI pressures, the CTM, the Trade Federation, to encourage these employer protection contracts and suppress workers’ efforts to build independent unions.

And the argument is that in this latter period, from 2018 to 2024, the US’s own attempts to adapt its growth model through protectionist trade policy, an attempt at green industrial policy, which to be determined what comes of that, but impacted Mexican labor organizing in two ways.

So first, the USMCA directly empowers independent labor unions in Mexico to fight for higher wages through some mechanisms that I’ll explain. And it also incentivized AMLO and the Morena Party to implement a genuine reform of Mexico’s system of labor relations. So that’s the impact of the USMCA.

And second, IRA subsidies resulted in growing investments in Mexican EV manufacturing, thereby easing some of the pressure on Mexico to suppress wages in the auto industry. That first part remains in place or at least until the renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026.

The second part, there’s a big question now with Trump election. So Tesla had a plant that they already started constructing in Monterrey, which was canceled. Musk said he would wait until after the election to see if that plant would continue in effect.

Chinese. The Chinese auto EV company, BYD, is moving forward in building but also paused until after the election. In response to all of that, Sheinbaum has announced that she’s that they’re going to build a Mexican EV, but we’ll see how that goes. But this is all very much in flux.

And yeah. So just briefly, in terms of what the USMCA actually does. So one is Mexico’s labor law reform was a precondition for the passage of the USMCA. So basically, in order for– so negotiators, and this was largely pushed by the Dems, were like in order for us to be able to continue in negotiations over the USMCA and not pull out of the agreement, we’re forcing AMLO’s government to push through a labor law reform.

This was initially begun under Peña Nieto, more conservative under the PRI Party. And when AMLO comes in, they implement a much broader labor law reform than Peña Nieto would have done. But either way, there was a labor law reform that was going to be in place.

What the labor law reform does is a few important things. One, it requires like some internal mechanisms of union democracy. And then importantly, it also makes it much easier for workers to be able to form independent unions.

And the final thing that it did was it required all workers to approve the existing contracts. So contracts that weren’t up for a vote among workers got nullified. When a contract is nullified, then workers have the opportunity to vote if they want to put a new union in place. So that was the labor law reform, among other things. Oh, and it also moved union negotiations outside of the executive into the judiciary branch. So it’s no longer under the executive.

And then the USMCA, which sort of went like hand in hand with this labor law reform in Mexico, does a few things. Most notably, there’s a rapid response enforcement mechanism, which basically, if you are a worker or an organizer and there’s some experience a labor law violation, you can actually appeal to a body that was created, like an oversight body that was created through the USMCA with trade representatives from the United States and from Canada, and they will intervene on your behalf.

The enforcement piece of this, because there was some sort of nominal labor side agreement to NAFTA. But the enforcement piece of the USMCA is that if the company refuses to respond, then they actually could face penalties in terms of losing their special non-tariff status.

So this has actually been used a lot of times. And in fact, every case where there was an independent labor union that formed, that I’ve tracked in Mexico, there was some intervention of the USMCA on the American side, which is why the organizers were like we’re on the phone all the time with American trade officials. It’s very strange, but here we are.

And the other thing is that there is an enormous amount of money that came from the US Department of Labor that went into funding, organizing on the Mexican side through something called the Solidarity Center, which has a, for those who know, there’s a new book out, Blue Collar Empire. For those who know, there’s a long history of US intervention in international labor movements for IIL. This though might be a case of US intervention in Mexico for good. And it’s through this Solidarity Center, which then funds organizers in different places to form these independent unions.

So yeah. I have done some preliminary interviews and ethnographic work in Coahuila in Mexico, where there was a campaign and then also where there are active campaigns right now, where they’re salting in plants. And in the process of interviewing labor leaders and organizers and then also government officials who are responsible for implementing the labor reform law. And then also, we’ll be looking at archival records as well, comparing this earlier period to the present period.

And yeah, I’ve been talking a while. So I’ll close with that. Maybe just to say I think some of the questions that are up for grabs for sure in terms of the relationship between Trump and Sheinbaum. The USMCA gets renegotiated in 2026. Likely the main issue will be at stake is the question of electric vehicles built by Chinese companies in Mexico making their way into the American market.

And yeah, we don’t really know where it’s going to go. But in some ways, the USMCA really was negotiated when Trump attempted to pull out of NAFTA on the first round. The AFL-CIO saw an opportunity. The big three really can’t do that. And the AFL-CIO there saw an opportunity to be able to push forward something that they’d wanted to do for a very long time. And so we’ll see in an ongoing way how those negotiations play out moving forward. Yeah. We’ll close.

[APPLAUSE]

JOHN LOGAN: I’ll just open it up for questions and comments. I just said very briefly, and so as I said at the beginning, with the field like labor, I mean, it’s true of other fields too, of course, of subspecialties of study. There’s always this sort of balance between innovations in the discipline. Like if you’re an economist, if you’re a sociologist, and like what’s really new and exciting that’s happening within your discipline? How is your research agenda influenced by that?

But then there’s also the real world of labor out there and how that sort of impacts what you think are the most important questions to ask. And the balance between those two things is always like varies with individual people. Like my own work, I mean, I’ve worked with unions since I was a grad student, and I was always obsessed with contemporary labor issues, even although I supposedly was a historian, wasn’t a very good historian.

Most of my publications have not been historically historical. Hopefully not ahistorical, but they were always obsessed with this real world of labor, what’s happening out there. How does a sort of historical sensibility help us understand how we got to where we got. And I think, we see in the three presentations here too, there is sort of that dynamic going on. But anyway, sorry. I don’t want to take up time. Open it up to questions and comments.

AUDIENCE: Ah, yes. This was really, really interesting. So thank you all to the panelists. I learned a lot. I have a question for William. It’s kind of two-sided question. I’m curious about where you classify surveillance and sort of how do you think about competing moral claims between employers and employees, especially considering that courts typically side with employers and their moral visions?

WILLIAM DARWELL: Yeah. Surveillance is a big issue. It raises, lots of different kinds of normative concerns. I think like maybe what I’ll say just as far as my work goes, and yeah, I don’t have too much to say about the courts, apart from they’re very sensitive to employer concerns.

As far as what my sort of distinctive take on intervention, the way that I think about what’s going on there is, again, to think about the way that subjection to one kind of mode of discipline, control, vulnerability to being watched in any variety of ways across any variety of like ways of conceiving what a person is to think about sort of vulnerability to being out of control of the conditions of your own self-making or something like that, as a sort of, again, the formal language that I’m working with.

Kind of, maybe not obvious is too strong. But I take it as kind of obvious that like the modes of surveillance that people are subject to at work ought to really alarm us in many cases. My aim is to try to articulate what’s wrong with what’s going on there in those terms to add something to the literature in general.

JOHN LOGAN: Can I just add very briefly to that, Sorry? I try to think about your paper, and like I do not have any philosophy background, and I always have to think try to make things concrete. And I mean, obviously what you’re saying brings to mind Amazon. And Amazon has adopted this slogan, we are not robots, because this is the way they’re being treated. Every sort of like single movement within the workplace is being surveilled, and monitored, and people are being penalized for.

And so I guess when I tried to explain to people like what is it that’s happening right now with these union campaigns, Amazon, and elsewhere, I think, well, if people think they’re being treated unfairly, unjustly at work, they have some notion of what constitutes just treatment, and where they get these notions of what constitutes just treatment is a sort of complicated issue. It comes from all over the place. And like surveillance at work is one of the things that they have really focused upon in terms of articulating their notions of just treatment at the workplace. But sorry.

AUDIENCE: Yes, thanks. Thank you for this amazing panel. It was really instructive. I have two questions. One to William, one to Vera. I guess this is going to be like a huge question. I apologize in advance. But what do you exactly mean by political in this setting. Because political can mean a lot of different things. And you said work is inherently, constitutively, I think, political, which I would agree. But I would like you to clarify what you mean by that. And kind of like going on the political thread, I guess.

My question to Vera, when you were mentioning, like why not Mexico, with this 1970s, ’80s labor upsurge in Brazil and South Africa but not so much in Mexico, from drawing from Beverly Silver. One thing that came to my mind was like, well, there’s actually big political movements going on in these two countries in South Africa and Brazil.

In Brazil, it’s democratization coming out of the military dictatorship. And in South Africa, obviously, the anti-apartheid movement. So my question is like, what is going on at this time in Mexico? And I don’t know how to insert this in the causal chain, but like how would that factor into this map that your conceptual map that you’re drawing? Thank you.

WILLIAM DARWELL: Yeah. So thanks for the question. I think it’s really great. I’m really stoked to talk about it. So again, the first attempt at a definition that I tried to give is like what I mean when I say the word political and saying that there’s something constitutively political about work is that politics is about the terms on which we live together.

And what it means to live together is to be sort of in these overlapping situations or situations and practices together where they’re overlapping confluences and conflicts of interest. So we can’t do what we’re doing together, engage in a kind of a social practice. And the terms of that social practice bring us into conflict with one another, either over our role in the practice, or again, the disposition of the fruits of that practice.

And it’s that notion of living together but in a kind of a tense way. That’s what’s constitutive of politics for me. So like part of what’s– yeah, there’s some other work on like, yeah, there’s a live question in moral theory right now about whether there’s a distinctive kind of normativity called political normativity or whether that’s all just reducible to just moral claims building off of the work of Bernard Williams, who’s at Berkeley and who made the sort of first claim that there’s something sort of different about what we do when we operate as groups through institutions and most importantly, with the institution of estate that’s different than the kind of terms of interpersonal morality, blah, blah, blah.

And I think that, again, the best way to think about what that is that the political is the way in which we set the terms of living together in a sort of a social relationship. One more thing that I’ll say about that is like there’s another kind of slogan that I feel like is good for labor studies.

In the past, the labor movement saw as its telos industrial democracy, which means let us run the economy, right? Either as a sort of a full participant through our unions or just give us the firms. We’ll do it. We know how to do it, like factories to the workers.

And so I think that like one thing that I would push for is also a new direction. Labor is also thinking about talking more between labor studies and business studies and thinking of corporations, firms. However, we want to think about them, as sort of like a horizon for labor to aim toward.

The reason that I say that in the context of the question about what I mean by political is because there’s also lots of interesting new work in theories of the corporation, the things about the corporation as a political actor. And one version of it, it’s just the thinking about the corporation as operating a concession from the state as sort of basically being a deputized form of the state itself.

And when we think about the corporation as a sort of like fundamentally like franchised or deputized form of what we’re really doing as states or people governed by states, is again setting the terms by which we live together, that’s the way in which I’m thinking about the work. And again, work in firms, shared work, socially necessary work as necessary or constitutively political.

VERA PARRA: Yeah. Thanks for that question. I think it’s a really good question. So one thing I can say is so Mexico in ’68, there a big student movement. Many of the young people who came up in that movement had, kind of parallel to in the United States, the sort of like move to industrializing or salting. There were people who came out of the movement of ’68 and entered into to try to build independent unions.

And in the early ’70s, so under then Echeverria’s government, had something called the apertura democratica, so the democratic opening, which was a response to the Dirty War in Mexico and the student and guerrilla movements there.

And it created a momentary opening for independent unions to form of that legacy comes basically like a three-year period in which the only independent unions that exist, at least in the auto industry formed in Mexico.

The argument that I’m making is that moment was like a real moment of possibility, and it gets cut short in 1976. So it isn’t given the chance to develop because of the influence of the United States and this push or like a shift in Mexico’s growth model, if that makes sense.

So there was actually the leadership and the social movement possibility. And if we were to compare it to, I don’t know how it would compare to Brazil and South Africa. The kind of curious thing is that in Brazil, the labor movement in auto develops in the context of dictatorship, and it’s actually the shift into dictatorship during that period of time that the Brazilian labor movement grows. Whereas in Mexico, the Democratic closing then really clamps down. So it doesn’t totally answer the question.

I’ll say just like two more thoughts. This isn’t a real answer. I think probably I’ve been thinking about it as labor movement creates the conditions for broader social movements. And there might be, in your question, like maybe there’s a reverse causality thing or it’s sort of like multiple. But what I will say, of course, is like in the period of time that the labor like industrialization in auto like really kicks off. Obviously after NAFTA, though it’s growing and expanding throughout the 80s.

And of course, the big movement in Mexico is the Zapatistas during that period of time. And I think there’s something to explore about the relationship between the Zapatistas and the state. Like is there something less compatible between the Zapatistas’ strategy of taking territory and not contesting directly for state power and labor? I don’t know. So that’s kind of like a question mark.

Maybe the last thing I’ll say is in spending time there over the summer, it’s clear that the movement that’s really influenced the labor organizers and their perspective coming in a younger generation of labor organizers that has formed is the feminist movement and the like the Ni Una Menos like against violence. And they actually talk in terms of like workplace violence or the abuses in the workplace are a form of violence that then reproduce themselves in the family. So it’s like very much oriented their political consciousness, the feminist movement. Anyways, I’ll leave it at that. All very preliminary.

MARION FOURCADE: Thank you. That was really a wonderful panel. So I have a question for Kristy and one for Vera. So Kristy, if I understand correctly, so the treatment that you’re using is sort of comparing this, sort of the last generation that came in under the old system and then the new generation from the new system, right?

But I was wondering if there’s a way– is there a change in applications? Is there a change in the number of people who want to work in this issue? And it could be that the federal government is not the place where you can see that, and there might be other places. But I was wondering about that. Is there a change in the selection of people who are coming into for government jobs?

Another piece of that sort of question is, have you thought about looking at UC system? Because I mean, casually, you would expect that, especially with the transformation of the system for the younger generation, especially of faculty, you would expect a lot more turnover, and casually, this seems to be the case. But I don’t know if there’s any sort of truth to that.

And then to Vera, I find this whole question of this sort of development of the labor movement and both sides of the border to be really fascinating because on the one hand, you can say, and indeed, the institutions are sort of called this way. It’s about solidarity. It’s about worker solidarity. The Department of Labor gives them grants, and so on, and so forth.

But of course, if you manage to raise wages in Mexico, of course this is lessening competition with the US. And so the US labor movement directly benefits. So you have two institutions, the US labor movement and Mexican labor movement, who are really in competition with one another but who are using this as a way to assert worker solidarity. So I just want to see how in your interviews and so on, how people navigate this fundamental contradiction in their respective positions. Thank you.

KRISTY KIM: OK, great. I will try to answer really quickly. So the first question was about selection. And to your point, even today, so some things that we might worry about is like perhaps in anticipation of this change in system, even though they don’t know what it is, you might start to hire people a little bit earlier, right? And which will change the composition of workers and become a threat to the identification strategy, which I’m assuming that these workers are very similar.

So one example is that as if you’re trying to find a job today, the threat of a Trump hiring freeze, for example, might cause firms to start hiring in December before the new administration comes in place. So we do check for that. We don’t see necessarily any speed-up of hiring, so we don’t see any anticipation in that sense.

Now I do take it to your point that of course, there may be some unobservable characteristics. Perhaps people who like more risk are OK with entering in the new system without knowing what it is. And that may be true.

And so the limitation of the paper is that the only thing I’m able to look at are observable, measurable characteristics that have existed at that time. But so long as it’s not correlated with– if it’s correlated with observable measures that I have. So let’s say risk is associated with age or your compensation. If that’s the case, then I can more confidently say that we don’t seem to see differences in that.

But certainly there may be other differences that I can’t observe. And so this is just a step towards understanding life cycle effects. And it’s this big movement. So there’s that. And in terms of the UC system, so I think it might be too early to study it because I believe the change happens in 2002.

JOHN LOGAN: 2013.

KRISTY KIM: 2013. OK, OK. So we don’t have a lot of data, and I’m not sure if the UC would provide that data, although I’m sure it’s scrape able based on where faculty go, for example. Anecdotally, it does seem to be the case that younger faculty seem to be looking at their outside options.

The other thing that we might want to think about, so it’s dynamic. So you have these short term workers that might leave sooner, but you also have workers that intend to stay at Berkeley for a really long time. And if we compare like Berkeley versus Harvard, for example, Harvard has no annuity. There are pure savings. The Harvard professors tend to stay much longer than Berkeley professors. They tend to retire in their 60s here, and in Harvard, maybe around their 80s. And so we might see some kind of bimodal effect from these short term workers leave faster, but the ones that intend to stay long, stay longer to build up their retirement savings.

JOHN LOGAN: It’s a national trend among universities. So it’s not just Berkeley.

MAROIN FOURCADE: That would be really interesting to look at the [INAUDIBLE].

KRISTY KIM: We’d like to help.

[LAUGHTER]

VERA PARRA: Yeah. Thanks for the question. I think the like confluence and the interest in confluence and intention are actually quite complicated and also sort of shifting politically. And I think they’ve shifted now after the election. We’ll sort of see what the UAW does.

But what I’ll say is there’s kind of like, from the US labor movement perspective, in terms of specifically thinking, well, it’s like speak specifically about auto, there’s two options, which is do everything you can to try to get them pulled out of the USMCA. Or you do what you can to try to raise wages in Mexico and support independent union organizing.

I think the thing that’s tricky is, of course, if this is like labor ultimately is tied to the companies that it’s part of. So in some ways, I mean, if the United States were to pull out of the USMCA, the big three would totally collapse, and you’d be left with foreign auto companies and Tesla, which of course, are not UAW.

And so in some ways, there is sort of like rhetorically, the UAW, of course, is saying the USMCA was a bad deal. But in reality, the American, the big three depend entirely on Mexico. And so in order to be able to be competitive in any kind of way, you need the parts sector from Mexico.

So the idea is like for the big three to be globally competitive with China or with Chinese EVs, you need to be able to have this nearshore model. Of course, there are tensions and divisions within the UAW itself. And so the move that Fain has made or made at least before the election is to say we’re going to support independent union organizing in Mexico.

And I think within the UAW, there’s also Fain is not in control of the entirety of the UAW, and different local presidents are putting countervailing pressures on him. So I would say I would say that for sure, the sell of the AFL-CIO to the Trump administration and also under the Biden administration is if we raise wages in Mexico, the jobs will come back to the United States.

But the reality is that the wages would have to be raised enormously for it no longer to make sense for GM to be producing cars or to be producing car parts, at least in Mexico, if that makes sense.

So I think it’s part of what I guess I’m seeing is that there’s a kind of labor solidarity that’s possible because of shared interests, actually, where on the one hand, in Mexico, they really need the money and also money from the UAW potentially, I think they feel more comfortable with than money that comes from the American government, where it feels like, A, potentially more strings attached, but B, it’s much more like politically volatile. So people have said to me like we’re depending too much on the Department of Labor and on the rapid response mechanism, which could disappear at any moment.

So that’s on the one hand. And then on the other hand, I think the other potential confluence of interest for the UAW is not just about having wages rise in Mexico enough to bring jobs back, which would really take quite a powerful labor movement, but is also about the possibility of some kind of coordinated strategy and coordinated disruption.

So Stellantis agreed to reopen a plant in Belvidere as part of the big three strike. That was like a victory. And then now is walking that back and is also simultaneously announcing investments in Mexico.

In Coahuila, a place where I’m like doing my field research, if potentially there was actually a strong independent labor movement there that the UAW could coordinate with there would be much more strategic opportunity, certainly in terms labor disruption. and from the conversations I’ve had with people, the supply chains are quite vulnerable to disruption. Like it doesn’t take much to shut down an auto parts plant that then put it’s like just in time production.

And so that potentially the possibility of doing coordinated labor action I think is the real potential benefit to the UAW, more so than wages rising up so much that the jobs return back. I don’t know if that makes sense.

JOHN LOGAN: Thank you all. More comments on that and the auto industry later. Thank you very much for coming and terrific presentations and great discussions. Thank you, everyone.

[APPLAUSE]

 

Authors Meet Critics

Sin Padres, Ni Papeles: Unaccompanied Migrant Youth Coming of Age in the United States

Part of the Authors Meet Critics book series

Recorded on December 3, 2024, this video features an Authors Meet Critics panel on Sin Padres, Ni Papeles: Unaccompanied Migrant Youth Coming of Age in the United States by Stephanie L. Canizales, Assistant Professor of Sociology at UC Berkeley and Faculty Director of the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative.

Professor Canizales was joined in conversation by Kristina Lovato, Assistant Professor of Social Welfare at UC Berkeley, and Caitlin Patler, Associate Professor of Public Policy at UC Berkeley. Sarah Song, Professor at Berkeley Law, moderated.

This event was presented by Social Science Matrix as part of the Authors Meet Critics book series, which features lively discussions about recently published books authored by social scientists at UC Berkeley. For each event, the author discusses the key arguments of their book with fellow scholars. These events are free and open to the public. The panel was co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Department of Sociology, the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative (BIMI), the Center for Race and Gender, the Othering and Belonging Institute, and the Latinx Research Center.

About the Book

Each year, thousands of youth endure harrowing unaccompanied and undocumented migrations across Central America and Mexico to the United States in pursuit of a better future. Drawing on the firsthand narratives of migrant youth in Los Angeles, California, Stephanie L. Canizales shows that while a lucky few do find reprieve, many are met by resource-impoverished relatives who are unable to support them, exploitative jobs that are no match for the high cost of living, and individualistic social norms that render them independent and alone.

“Sin Padres, Ni Papeles” illuminates how unaccompanied teens who grow up as undocumented low-wage workers navigate unthinkable material and emotional hardship, find the agency and hope that is required to survive, and discover what it means to be successful during the transition to adulthood in the United States.

Stephanie L. Canizales, PhD, is a researcher, author, and professor at the University of California at Berkeley, and a Resident Scholar with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Stephanie’s research specializations include international migration and immigrant integration; children, youth, and families; inequality, poverty, and mobility; and race and ethnicity. She uses in-depth interviews and ethnographic research methods to understand the causes of Latin American-origin migration to the U.S. and how immigrant children, youth, and families fare once there. Born and raised in Los Angeles, California, Stephanie is the daughter of Salvadoran immigrants whose experiences growing up as unaccompanied youth in Los Angeles inform her scholarship and motivate her commitment to public scholarship.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the presentation as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

CHUCK KAPELKE: Hi, everyone. Thanks for coming. I’m Chuck Kapelke, the communications manager here at Social Science Matrix. Our director, Marion Fourcade, could not be here today, which she regrets. So I’m filling in her place, and it is my pleasure to welcome you to this Authors Critics Panel on the book Sin Padres, Ni Papeles, Unaccompanied Migrant Youth Coming of Age in the United States by Professor Stephanie Canizalez.

Just a few quick words before I kick things over to our moderator. First, I want to thank our co-sponsors for this event, including the UC Berkeley Department of Sociology, the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative, or BIMI, the Center for Race and Gender, the Othering and Belonging Institute, and the Latinx Research Center.

And I also want to invite you to join us here on Thursday at 4:00 PM as the Berkeley Economy and Society Initiative will present a book talk featuring Marion Fourcade, Director of Matrix and Professor of Sociology, who will talk about her recently published book, The Ordinal Society. Now, let me introduce our moderator for today’s panel.

Sarah Song is the Milo Rees Robbins Chair in Legal Ethics, Professor of Law, and Professor of Philosophy and Political Science here at UC Berkeley. She is a political theorist with a special interest in issues of democracy, citizenship, migration, and inequality. She teaches in the PhD program in Jurisprudence and Social Policy at Berkeley Law, including courses in political and legal philosophy, citizenship and migration, and feminist theory and jurisprudence.

She is the author of Justice, Gender, and the Politics of Multiculturalism, published in 2007, and Immigration and Democracy, which was published in 2018 and explores the values and principles that shape and ought to shape public debate about immigration. So thank you for moderating, Professor Song. And the floor is yours.

SARAH SONG: Thank you, Chuck, for that generous introduction. Welcome, everyone. Thank you all for coming to this Author Meets Critics panel. I just want to briefly tell you about the format of today’s panel and then introduce our panelists. So I’m going to introduce our panelists, and then Professor Canizales will give a short presentation (with PowerPoint) of her book.

Then professor Kristina Lovato and Professor Caitlin Patler will offer their comments. Professor Canizales will then take a few minutes to respond to some of their comments, and then we’ll open it up for Q&A. If we stick to time, we should have 20 minutes for Q&A. And when we get to that portion, catch my eye, and I’ll call on you, and Chuck will come out and circulate a mic. So please wait for the mic before you speak.

So I’m going to first introduce our commentators, and then I’ll introduce the author of our book for today. First, Kristina Lovato is Assistant Professor of Social Welfare here at Berkeley. She is the member of the Latinx and Democracy Cluster and serves as the director of the Center on Immigration and Child Welfare in the School of Social Welfare. Her scholarly work and teaching is directly informed by her dedication to community-engaged social justice.

She spent the past 20 years working at the intersection of child well-being and immigration issues as a bilingual social work practitioner, educator, and teacher. Her research utilizes intersectional, qualitative, and mixed-method approaches to examine the impact of immigration policy on Latinx and migrant child and family well-being.

Our second commentator is Caitlin Patler, who is Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Goldman School of Public Policy here at Berkeley and a faculty affiliate of the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative. She’s a sociologist whose research examines US immigration and criminal laws, legal statuses, and law enforcement institutions as drivers of socioeconomic and health disparities.

She also studies the spillover and intergenerational consequences of systemic inequality for children and household well-being. She’s received multiple grants and awards for her research on undocumented immigrant young adults, the impacts of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, also known as DACA program, and the US immigration prison system.

Last but not least, the author of the book that we’ll be discussing today is Professor Stephanie Canizales. She is a researcher, author, and Assistant Professor of Sociology here at Berkeley and also the faculty director of the Berkeley Interdisciplinary Migration Initiative, also known as BIMI, and a resident scholar with the United States Department of Health and Human Services.

Her research specializations include international migration and immigrant integration; children, youth, and families, inequality, poverty, and mobility, and race and ethnicity. She uses in-depth interviews and ethnographic research methods to understand the causes of Latin American origin migration to the US, and how immigrant children, youth, and families fare once here.

Born and raised in Los Angeles, Stephanie is the daughter of Salvadoran immigrants whose experiences growing up as unaccompanied youth in Los Angeles inform her scholarship and motivate her commitment to public scholarship. So without further ado, let me introduce Professor Canizales.

[APPLAUSE]

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Thank you. Well, thanks, everyone, for being here. I’m Stephanie Canizales. This is my fourth book talk on campus this semester. So some of them are recorded. Some of them live in the ether. I’m hoping to give you both what I normally do with a little bit of a spin so I’m not repeating myself. But you can hear me, right? I don’t need that? OK, great.

Sin Padres, Ni Papeles is a book that I wrote that is based on six years of research in Los Angeles. It is my first book project, and I’m very excited to be sharing on it with you today. To ground us in the research, I want to start here with trends of unaccompanied child migration to the US.

We know that millions of youth migrate by themselves across the globe each year. And in the US, unaccompanied minor migrants are predominantly of Central American origin — El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras particularly, and a smaller proportion of unaccompanied children also from Mexico. In 2014, the year that is known as the humanitarian crisis, the number of child apprehensions doubled from the year prior for the first time in recent history.

Apprehensions rose to about 69,000. Around 70,000 children were apprehended, and that is known as the year of the crisis. We’re now in 2024, a decade later. The average rate of apprehensions at the US-Mexico border of unaccompanied children since 2021 is about 146,000. So we’ve now doubled what was the year of the crisis.

I want to note a few important patterns, demographics related to this population that are relevant to the book that you all will hear about today: 81% of these children are between the ages of 13 and 17, so in adolescence and in their transition to adulthood. This is the average working age in Latin America.

61% of unaccompanied children apprehended at the US-Mexico border are young men. And teenagers and teenage males are more likely than younger aged children and teenage women to be the first in their families to migrate, to migrate alone, and to engage in transnational migration as their first migration experience, as opposed to internal or regional.

There is a sort of expected pathway– there you go– of entry into the US for unaccompanied children following their arrival in which they’re apprehended at the US-Mexico border by the Department of Homeland Security. Children who are from contiguous border countries, countries that we share a border with, are immediately returned to the country of origin, unless they can prove a well-founded fear of persecution at the moment of apprehension by a Customs and Border Protection agent.

If they are from a non-contiguous border country, children are transferred to the Department of Health and Human Services custody, where then they are given over to the Office of Refugee Resettlement, ORR. ORR then transfers children into the custody of an adult caregiver, of which 40% are typically parents. The US government then assumes that the sponsor, the adult caregiver, will care for and protect children as they come of age and through the time when their legal protection is granted or the child is ordered removed, deported.

That assumption was turned on its head very publicly when the New York Times published this report, Alone and Exploited, in February of 2023, which revealed that children were being released from ORR custody to their sponsors across 20 states, and were ending up as low-wage exploited workers in meatpacking, dairy farming, construction, and other dangerous industries.

A follow-up report later last year told us of teenagers who lost their limbs and their lives working dangerous jobs to pay off migration debt and then to make ends meet in their everyday needs. Since these stories were released, there’s been much confusion about how we got here. Like, this is America, we value children. Or this shouldn’t be happening.

But there is a history of US intervention in Central America and Mexico that has led us here, and children have always been embedded in the migration flows. I hate using that word. The migration trends from Latin America to the US. So I want to give us a little bit more context. My goal for the next 15 minutes is to unpack who unaccompanied and undocumented migrant youth in the US are, and how immigrant youth experience incorporation as they come of age without parents or papers.

To get at that first question, we have to understand that the population is much larger and more diverse than what’s written into policy reports or what we’re reading in the media. And this is because there’s more than one pathway of arrival into the US. While over 146,000 children on average are apprehended at the US-Mexico border, some also evade apprehension.

Some youth can be reunited with family members upon evading apprehension. Some youth might also remain unaccompanied. Research on the trends of unaccompanied migration at the height of the population’s growth in the ’90s and early 2000s suggested that for every one person that was apprehended, about three others were not.

So we might actually have a larger population of unaccompanied children who evaded apprehension and are growing up in different household contexts, including being the head of their own household in the US. With this in mind, my research really– the book is focused on answering the second question. How do immigrant youth experience incorporation as they come of age without parents nor papers?

I’ve argued that answering this question is important as a matter of empirics. We don’t know how many, but there could be at least 450,000 more children living in the US without parents or legal status. But it’s also one of theoretical significance, primarily in the social science areas of the sociology of migration and immigrant incorporation.

Until now, immigrant youths coming of age has been studied in an existing theoretical frame that treats incorporation as an individual or group-level experience. Scholars ask which immigrant individuals or groups are incorporated, which ones are not, and what mechanisms make these outcomes so.

In this way, incorporation is treated as a static outcome. We’ve measured– oh, no, my graphics are not going to work. Assume my presentation is really pretty. We’ve measured this outcome in socioeconomic terms, educational attainment and English language dominance, occupational and wage mobility, and wealth accumulation.

Immigrants’ attainment of these markers informs claims of their deservingness of political protection and social inclusion. So thinking here of the DREAM Act, DACA, DAPA. If you achieve a certain level of success, therefore you are deserving of our consideration of rights and privileges. Scholars have focused on the possibility of attaining these markers within distinct contexts.

We typically study youth in schools and adults at work. We’ve largely understood that immigrant parents labor on behalf of their children so that they can occupy that role of students at school. This is the general premise of the foundational, segmented assimilation theory, which has been the leading immigrant youth incorporation theory over the last three decades.

Segmented assimilation theory offers us three potential pathways of incorporation. Upward mobility into the mainstream, reserved for children who are received favorably race, class, citizenship status, so forth. Selective mobility for those who are less welcome, but who benefit from remaining embedded in parent-led households and K through 12 schools and are incorporated into their local communities or co-ethnic communities.

And downward mobility for youth who are disconnected from traditional family, co-ethnic networks, and do not complete K through 12 school. The role of parents really cannot be overstated in segmented assimilation theory. The theory of immigrant youth incorporation. The mechanism that scholars attribute the successful, upward, or selective incorporation pathways to is the availability of financial, human, social, and emotional capital within households that are transferred from parents to children that can buffer them from potential hardships in the present but also in the future.

Parents also act as liaisons to extended family and community networks who do the same. So the idea is that the child is idealized in the household and protected in the household and the community, and everyone is invested in their coming of age. The assumption of who immigrant youth are in the context they’re growing up in ties us to one dominant empirical frame, one in which children are passive, accompanied migrants who grow up in parent-led households, where parents’ resources and discipline are supplemented by extended family, community, and schools until they transition into adulthood and work.

Research on undocumented youth shows us that, by and large, the household and school contexts render them indistinguishable from their US-born peers until they age out of K through 12 schools and age into illegality. But as we know, more undocumented Latin American origin youth are knowingly migrating to the US unaccompanied by a parent.

They’re remaining unaccompanied as they come of age. They’re growing up outside of the bounds of normative childhood and complex households and families and independently enter the co-ethnic community. They don’t have that liaison. So I attempt to widen the empirical frame to account for this marginalized group and offer a chance to reassess our assumptions about how immigrants experience incorporation and how distinct pathways of incorporation come to be.

I can also reveal something new about how immigrant and young people experience identity formation, survival, what it means to thrive from their perspective. So like I said, Sin Padres, Ni Papeles really sets out to answer that question, how do immigrant youth experience incorporation as their coming of age without parents nor papers?

I advance several incorporation theory arguments moving beyond an institutionally bound, static, socioeconomic endpoint to argue that incorporation is a dynamic, material, and emotional process that occurs within and across societies over time because young people are not just growing up here. But they’re also connected to families there.

Engaged in an incorporation process, Immigrants experience their well-being and success in ways that reflect their social roles and their social position and that young people are capable of navigating this process independently. In the absence of an adult, that doesn’t mean that the child inherently becomes deviant or is disconnected from society. But the connections might look a little bit different.

So I really try to lay that out in the book across six substantive chapters. I begin at the point of departure, where you set individual and collective migration goals that are rooted in advancing their own and their family’s futures. I really try to draw on youth’s understanding of migration metas. What are those goals that they’re setting that really motivate not just their migration, but their persistence in what are unimaginable conditions a lot of the time.

Many arrive in the US to find that long-settled relatives who are constrained by their own legal and socioeconomic status are unable to offer material and emotional support, rendering children unaccompanied upon their arrival. Young people might feel disoriented as they’re thrust into material and emotional independence and their role as low-wage workers in the US.

Over time, they experience orientation to life as an unaccompanied and undocumented immigrant youth worker. Some establish meaningful social ties with individuals and organizations that facilitate their emotional orientation. Some people talk about being unaccompanied but not alone. These young people move into a phase of “adaptación al sistema,” adaptation to life in the US.

They learn to navigate the structure of opportunities before them. But there is also young people who might learn to navigate the bus system, how to get a job, how to get an apartment. They still feel emotionally disoriented and experience what participants refer to as “perdicion,” a state of perdition, of loss, of an emotional despair, where they not only lose their sense of self, but lose the metas, the things that motivated them.

As youth move from disorientation to orientation to adaptation or perdition, they make meanings of success and well-being that really are a reflection of the conditions of their lives. It’s not diplomas or wealth that they point to as a marker of success, but their ability to take care of themselves independently, to take care of left-behind families, and to support others similarly situated peers that matters most to them.

I said a lot. I’m talking really fast, but I’ll give you a quick rundown of the research methods. And if you all want to know more, I’m happy to answer in the Q&A. I spent six years conducting ethnographic observations and in-depth interviews with Central American and Mexican young adults all over the age of 18 when I interviewed them. I can explain my IRB restrictions on that, but all had arrived in the US as minors between the ages of 11 and 17 in the decade before the onset of the crisis.

I observed a support group for six years. I attended church mass prayer groups, weekly gatherings, community gardens, book clubs, adult English language classes– where I did some recruitment and observations– community festivals. And then just over time, the general hanging out at the donut shops and the McDonalds and all of that stuff, really getting a sense of how young people spent their time when they weren’t at work.

Of the 75 in-depth interviews that I conducted, 61 of the interviewees were Central American, 14 were Mexican. About half of the sample was Indigenous Maya, 36, Indigenous Maya language speakers. The sample included 53 men and 22 women. The median age of interviewees was 23. So really in young adulthood, anticipating the future, but also very much connected to the teenage years that they migrated in.

The median age of migration was 16. As I mentioned, the youngest interview participant was 11 at the time of arrival. The oldest was 17. Participants had spent– on average across the 75– about 8.6 years in Los Angeles. So they were really able to tell me what happened in their incorporation. About five of the 75 were received by long-settled relatives that set them on the path of school enrollment.

They told the story very similar to the Dreamer story, the DACA student story. So I focused really on young people who were not well received, that other 70 who became full-time workers. A quick glimpse of the types of work they did. Most of my participants focused in manufacturing, garment manufacturing, which is really densely populating the Downtown LA area.

Food manufacturing, some domestic home making, janitorial workers. One woman worked at a salon. One was a restaurant DJ. It’s kind of across the board, but predominantly in what we consider these racialized immigrant jobs where single men were exploited predominantly decades ago, and then women, families, and now children are the target recruiting worker population.

So sociologists have long studied immigrant youth in schools and adults at work. Because these are deemed the age-appropriate institutions, we don’t really question how they function in making the incorporation process. If we want to study immigrant youth, we go to a school, and we end up studying students. If we want to study adults, we end up talking about work.

So I’m trying to really understand when you dislocate the age and the institution, what does that tell us about how institutions work in shaping the incorporation process and the role of age in navigating space? So those two things concurrently. Beyond the narrative arc that I described across the six substantive chapters earlier, I hope readers also engage with these important takeaways.

First, that migration and coming of age are co-occurring processes. These are adolescents transitioning into adulthood. They’re also newcomers transitioning into a long-settled migrant status and that there are also material and emotional dimensions to those two things. There’s a lot happening. I talked earlier about how we’ve come to understand the material endpoint of incorporation, and we’re keen on uncovering the material lives that immigrants live, how they live, where they live, how they work, how they make community.

So I really urge us across the six chapters to think about the emotional dimensions of immigrants’ lives. What does it feel like to depart? What does it feel like to arrive? How does this orientation of being a new migrant also then intermingle with being an adolescent that just every day feels uncomfortable in their body, is learning how to make friends, maybe has their first heartbreak, is learning how to drive. All of those things, or maybe not learning how to drive, but learning how to drive in Los Angeles, which is its own beast, and then getting your first, second, and third job.

All of these firsts, not just as an immigrant, but an adolescent in a new society. I also urge readers to consider how the emotional dimensions of youth lives are being navigated without an adult supervisor or a guide, someone that they can, at the end of the day, either say nothing happened at school or unload the thing that– those everyday interactions that we might have with our siblings, our parents, our caregivers.

I draw on youth perspectives and their own words and outline the material and emotional dimensions of how they’re living through these ongoing processes of disorientation, orientation, adaptation, and perdition. And I want to also highlight that all of those chapter titles come from when you read the book. You’ll see that they are drawn out of the words that young people use.

They said “disorientado.” They said “adaptacion,” “perdicion,” all of these words. I don’t introduce a framework. I give you the language that young people use to give texture and color to their own lives. So that is the youth-centered approach. I also play with these concepts that I’ve been developing over the past few years and previously written work that I bring together and the narrative of Sin Padres, Ni Papeles.

The concepts that I’ve played with are work primacy and trying to understand the subjective meanings that young people draw around their well-being and also success. What does it mean to feel well, to live well, but also what does it mean to succeed when they’re outside of all of those markers and institutions that we’ve defined as normative.

The first concept, work primacy, I introduced in the book to illustrate how unaccompanied immigrant youth experience incorporation when the primary institutional context that they’re growing up in is the workplace and the primary social role that they take on is one of low-wage worker. With this concept, I analyze how institutional primacy undergirds the immigrant incorporation process within and across spheres and societies.

So really drawing attention to the fact that we don’t call it school primacy, but we’ve really assumed that young people are growing up in schools and that certain resources and socialization processes are happening in their lives. What I draw out of this concept is that immigrants relationships to institutions make the incorporation process by shaping a immigrants’ live chances, who they are in the present, and who they can become in the future.

And I think that’s something that studying young people’s transitions into adulthood lets me think a lot about where they’ve been and also what they imagine the future would look like for them. Again, I do this across multiple spheres of society to show how immigrant incorporation plays out in a way that is shaped by institutional primacy.

I focus on four vital spheres through which immigrants encounter the structure of opportunities, starting with youth at work, how work lives shape educational access and opportunities, the way they engage in community, how they relate to their families that are still in the origin country. I talk in the book about how long hours at work and physical ailments caused at work makes it impossible for young people to enroll in K through 12 schools.

You can’t both be at work and school at the same time but then near impossible to enroll in adult English language schools that might meet at 7:00 or 8:00 PM. And young people really try to learn the English language. So turning, again, on its head, this idea that if an immigrant is not– if an immigrant young person is not in school, they don’t value the culture.

Young people revere the English language as something that is essential for their work lives. So they’re really trying to learn the language. I highlight the cases like that of Tomas, who arrived in Los Angeles at 14. I met him when he was 19. He said he saw how attending school was nearly impossible because he said no one helped me.

I had to pay rent. I had to pay for food. So either I go to school and I don’t have money for rent or food, or I don’t go to school and I have money for rent and to eat. There’s these negotiations that a 14-year-old is making that they wouldn’t normatively make in the US. In interview after interview, I heard comments like this.

People would say, I wish I could go to school, but no one’s going to support me. It’s just me. “Estoy solito,” I’m by myself. A garment worker said, when I got here, no one wanted to help me, but I needed to find a job to survive, to pay rent, to pay food, to take care of myself. There’s so much talk a lot in the book about how young people felt being solito, being alone, and therefore relegated to work and limited mobility opportunities.

I don’t know how much time I have. I’m doing great. In particular, without English language proficiency, young people have a lesser chance of getting jobs outside of the exploitative garment industry, restaurant, kitchens, and construction work. Low wages make it hard to send consistent remittances to left-behind families, breeding feelings of guilt and shame.

Youth cope, then, by withdrawing from families only calling when work is going really well and then not calling on all of those weeks that work is not going well. Youth also participate in communities in ways that time and resource constraints posed by work enable them to. So maybe they only see friends on a Sunday afternoon because they’re working Monday through Saturday.

They go to church on Sunday morning, and they only have a few hours to themselves or engaging in physical activities. I talk in the book about a few young men who got together and started a running club. They wanted to get faster, but not just faster runners, but faster at work. They wanted to earn. I think the phrase was– something about if you work more, you earn more.

So it’s very much getting faster. That’s work primacy, getting faster for the sake of doing better at work. So that’s the relationship between institutional primacy and the lives that young people live that I try to draw out across the chapters. The everyday material conditions shape how youth feel about themselves and about whether or not they were attaining the metas they set out to and whether or not they were growing up in a way that they could feel proud of and they could communicate to their left behind families that the parents would be proud of.

Unaccompanied youth noticed that they were surrounded by adults at work and that children were either accompanied throughout the neighborhood or that kids were not at work because they were at school learning for the first time. The education is compulsory. And even if you grew up as a child worker in Guatemala, and you think this is what everyone does, arriving in the US and realizing that that’s not what everyone does, hurts their feelings in a way that I wasn’t anticipating finding.

I call this the emergent frame of reference. They’re learning in real time how kids live and how that’s different from how they’re living themselves, but also how other kids that they’ve left behind are living, including their younger siblings. One participant described that they grow up as unaccompanied young people feeling discriminated against.

He said, I feel like I’m less than them, kids with parents. I would look at other kids, say, wow, why not me? I would ask myself, why am I not a kid who was born here? Why aren’t my parents here? Why is my life different? I say, look, the ones who were born here, they go to school, they have parents, they have everything. I wish I could speak the language too. I feel like there’s no way out. I like being here, but I feel stuck. I feel less than others.

So again, the material and emotional coming together and making young people feel a sense of deprivation they probably weren’t anticipating upon migration or departure. Tomas, who we met earlier, said that when youth migrate to the US without their parents and don’t get familial support upon arrival, they have to grow up as workers (NON-ENGLISH). They only come here to suffer.

I saw sufrimiento, how young people tried to cope with sufrimiento, through reports of drug and alcohol addiction. Several instances of self harm. I talk in the book about how these structurally produced voids that young people feel prompt young people to take up behaviors to fill the void. So when we see what is called deviant behavior, it isn’t something that is inherent to a young person.

But it is an emotional response and really trying to draw attention to the structure that produces the void. I talk about in that final chapter on perdicion. But I also find that youth make positive meanings and fulfillment of their work and kept promises. Use definitions of success reflect the primacy of work and their ability to claim social responsibility.

Youth claim belonging and citizenship within an emergent frame of reference. A guy who left school in Guatemala in sixth grade after his father passed away migrated to Los Angeles at 16 after years of trying to fill the role, the financial gap, his father left behind. He thought he’d be able to attend school while working.

This didn’t happen for him. While growing up in LA, he became preoccupied with ensuring that his younger siblings didn’t end up migrating as unaccompanied youth after him. He made it his goal to ensure that his five siblings completed education and were able to get jobs in Guatemala. He said he’s spending a lot of money and working hard for them to succeed in Guatemala.

A lot of people say, I don’t have a house. I don’t have an education. Those traditional markers. He says, I’ve been here for five years, and I’ve accomplished nothing. So he’s basically saying in sociology speak, a lot of people would say that I have that third downward incorporation pathway. He says, you know what? I always think that what I’m doing for my family.

He says his mom is happy. His siblings are safe. They all finish school. Everyone is there, and they admire how much I’ve overcome. That relational success is what he’s pointing to. Esmeralda provides another example. She migrated at 16 when her two older siblings stopped remitting money. They both got married and started families in Los Angeles.

So Esmeralda was the next one in line. She was 26 when we met. She said she felt proud that she hadn’t achieved that life stage marker. The normative marker of getting married and starting a family. She said they’re happy because I haven’t gotten married. So I went, yeah, I’m the good daughter. Because a lot of women come here and a few years later, they get married, have children, forget about their families.

The not forgetting about her family became the marker of success. So again, pointing to these idealized– the high school diploma, the college diploma, the home ownership, and young people from their institutional position as workers say, my marker just happens to be different, and I’m doing well along that line. So I started off with these two questions, who are unaccompanied and undocumented migrant youth, and how do they experience incorporation? Sin Padres, Ni Papeles.

The book advocates for scholars to widen the empirical frame of who immigrant youth, but also who undocumented youth and unaccompanied youth are. I’ve relied on the case of unaccompanied undocumented youth workers who enter the US not having been apprehended at the border to show how young people are active agents in their own lives.

They can navigate complex households, transnational families. They can learn communities and workplaces and survive. They transition into adulthood as workers, and I’ve argued that this doesn’t mean that youth experience downward incorporation into deviance and institutional disconnection. Instead, they experience incorporation as a process that is conditioned by their starting point. Their institutional primacy, which is work.

I define the incorporation process as one that occurs within and across institutions and societies over time. Once pathway along the material and emotional incorporation process is informed again by their context and the role they take within that context. I introduced work primacy as a concept that shows how relationships to the place that we occupy in society is what makes the process– gives structure to that process for us.

Youth can be relegated to work, but they’re also not flatly just workers. They’re living these multi-dimensional lives, and they engage in society in ways that reflect their access to opportunities, time, resources, and also their goals. Last thing I will say is that we can see youth agency in how they draw subjective meanings of success and well-being from within their distinct social contexts in relationship with other people and that they navigate these processes, Sin Padres, Ni Papeles.

Actually, last thing I’ll say is that within my– I mentioned that 36 of the youth that I interviewed for this project are Indigenous young people. And throughout the book I really tried to explain how gender and ethno-race can shape or make these processes just a little bit different in different contexts, but it wasn’t enough. So there’s another book coming next summer that is just on those 36 young people and explains the role of ethno-race and language. So be on the lookout for part two of Sin Padres if you enjoyed it, which I hope you did.

SARAH SONG: Thank you, Stephanie.

[APPLAUSE]

Kristina.

KRISTINA LOVATO: Well, thank you, first and foremost, for such an amazing presentation. My name is Kristina Lovato, and I’m an assistant professor here. And I’m going to just start off with recognitions of the amazing contributions that Stephanie’s book has offered all of us. First, I’m so appreciative and honored to be here today to engage with you all in such a beautifully written, engaging, accessible, and deeply analytical book.

As a social welfare scholar, my work focuses in similar ways, particularly focusing on immigration-related family separations. And when I knew that this book was coming out, as I followed Stephanie’s work for many years, I quickly assigned it to my research lab, and we have consumed it week after week this semester. So it’s really an honor to be here with all of you.

So again, starting off with some contributions, I’d like to say that this book shifts the way we think about who migrates and how individuals incorporate into the US and shape their resettlement. It provides nuanced and innovative insights into the framing and reconceptualization of migration.

In terms of the broad literature, as Stephanie pointed out, we’ve really understood migration from the vantage point of the push-pull factors that have centrally focused on US-Mexico relations. These push-pull factors that really have driven male migration. Fathers who come to the US. We have later learned about the experiences of women.

Mothers who experienced transnational family separation. More recently, we have learned about the experiences of youth who migrate to the US with their parents and have the opportunity to, at some point, perhaps apply for and potentially receive DACA status. This book really shifts that and places us into understanding the experience of unaccompanied migrants, again, who come here without parents, without papers.

It focuses on a demographic and a region that we have really not had the luxury of understanding, despite the humanitarian crisis that has been at the helm of the US border for the last decade. And so essentially, this population has been rendered invisible despite the intensified human rights crisis. And with that being said, particularly during a time of heightened restrictive immigration policies that is only becoming more restrictive in the next administration to come.

So with all that being said, this book is a huge contribution to the literature. This book also underscores the reality that these migrations are motivated by individual and collective urgencies and care. And this is such an important point to really think about, the fact that care is deeply involved in the decision and need to migrate.

There is a poignant quote by Caleb, one of the participants in this book. This quote stands out as he remembers how his mother confessed her concern for his future in Guatemala. At the young age of 14, in this act of care, Caleb’s mother encourages him to leave home for his own economic and emotional future.

He recalled her saying, there is no way for you to get ahead, to become a better person, and build your home. Caleb, like all of the participants, left home to obtain their metas, their goals, of becoming better individuals, earning money, caring for their families, and for many, returning home and participating in their local communities at some point.

So essentially, there was a hope to return back home and to participate and engage back in the communities that they were from. This book shows that migration is not an individual or selfish act, but rather a form of transnational family care motivated by individual and collective socioeconomic forces and urgencies that really are at the helm of their present and their metas for the future, their goals.

Stephanie also does an amazing job of highlighting youth voices as she presented here. Stephanie demonstrates how youth construct hybrid identities that bridge their own local incorporation process, settling into this major Metropolitan city of Los Angeles, as well as tending to family ties abroad, all the while experiencing work primacy, as she mentioned, and providing this type of transnational family care, emotional, and financial support, staying deeply invested and engaged with their families back home.

Stephanie illuminates the variety of resettlement experiences as she shows that many of these experiences– that not all of these youth fared the same. That males, in some cases, fare differently because of the opportunities or non opportunities that were available to them, as well as female participants.

There were a lot of gender constraints on the ways that they were received, and so they experienced incorporation differently, as did Indigenous Mayan Guatemalan youth, who experienced a disproportionate amount of anti-Indigenous reception and sentiment in Los Angeles. So little has really been written on the importance of the context of reception in which one is received.

Oftentimes, sometimes it can be welcoming, but most of the time it’s hostile. And so through the narratives that are told throughout this book, Stephanie points to the household as a very important context of reception for providing the material and emotional support that shapes youth transition. She pointed out in her presentation that for some youth, they actually do have long-settled relatives who are here, who are resourced, who have the capacity to hear about their day.

And for a lot of them, they actually didn’t have their long-settled relatives who they moved in with. Uncles, aunts, just simply didn’t have the capacity, the resources to hear about their day, to receive them because of constraints on their own financial realities, their own status as undocumented individuals in the US.

And so this book provides examples of how long-settled receiving family members faced constrained conditions on their own due to macro-level structures, which really shaped not only their own mobility processes, but of course, the youth who tried to settle with them. And so an individual– I’ll give an example of Patrick, for example– who discussed how long-settled relatives weren’t able to support him.

He says, sometimes you don’t find the necessary support here. I know I can become someone here but only if someone supports me. I don’t know where to go on my own. And so essentially, many of the youth, like Patrick, felt emotionally and materially and physically disoriented. And while it might be easy to cast some kind of judgment, blame, on relatives who can’t receive these youth, their family members, Stephanie points to the larger macro-level structures and influences that absolutely make it impossible sometimes to receive their relatives.

Another contribution that I’d like to point out is the way that Stephanie attends to the emotional and social lives of these youth. She provides deeply intimate and a personal lens and window into the emotional lives of these youth who are navigating dual transitions. According to these youth, America, the US, is not the dream that they expected.

It’s a rude awakening when they get here that the US is really not what they imagined, and the emotional narratives that are portrayed really weave in youth’s voices. Essentially, they theorize their own experience, challenging dominant paradigms and dominant theories around what incorporation should look like. Through their own words, as Stephanie mentioned, they name their incorporation process through three dynamic processes, this orientacion, adaptacion, and perdicion.

And so just returning back to this idea of disorientation, many of the youth experience this lack of emotional and material support. In some ways, the ups and downs of finding work, being exploited at work, having to deal with not being able to go to school, navigating transportation, all of this was disorienting.

At the same time, many of them were also able to adapt over time. They found support through youth groups or rather, I should say, through groups like Voces de Esperanza, which Stephanie spent six years observing and engaging in. And I’d like to point out this quote that was so powerful to me. It was the organizer of the group, Wilfredo, and he really talks about youth agency in creating mutual aid and a collective space to share emotions, which this group offered.

And so Wilfredo says to the youth themselves, “Right now, you are OK. You have your feet. You have your hands. You can work. You can smile. You have what you need. But if you latch on to one thing that is happening, then you will not be fine. Instead of living in the present, your mind will be focused on something else that is difficult. So you must have courage, which is why we have this space. These are the things that you bring here to share, that you can share with a friend. That is the only way to heal.”

And so this quote, when I read it, it just hit me so powerfully. As someone who is a social welfare scholar and someone who has engaged in the importance of groups, this speaks to the power, really, of healing through the connection that exists through these narratives with others.

So adaptation is something that Stephanie highlights through community and family. These youth– I should say the long-settled relatives that sometimes the youth have access to. These youth are able to adapt. They learn how to go to– they learn how to form study groups, to learn English, to be, again, more productive at work. They learn how to pay rent, how to navigate a huge city like Los Angeles.

They learn how to advance their careers through job jumping. And at the same time, some of them experience this process of perdition, of loss because it is so overwhelming, this process. And so Stephanie speaks throughout this book about the way in which goal setting, setting one’s metas, is challenging. And they go through processes of some of them engaging in substance use and harmful relationships and even suicidality, unfortunately, constrained by these macro-level structural forces that are at play.

I’d like to jump through to– because I think I only have one minute left– to some of the questions that I’d like to pose. So really wanting to share the utmost respect and really the power that came through this book and through these narratives. As a social welfare scholar, I encourage social work students, professionals, those who work in mental health, community-based settings, legal professionals, human-service professionals, and policy makers to engage in this book.

This is a book about the real life stories of youth who are engaging and trying to make lives for themselves here on their own. This book provides critical contributions and recommendations for policy makers, really showing that we must engage and create policies and programs that mitigate harms so that our unaccompanied youth can really fulfill their futures and dreams.

And so I’ll pose three questions that I have for Stephanie, which really just came as thoughts and as curiosities as I was reading this book. So the first one really centers the geographic context of this book and the transferability. And so, Stephanie, while you show that household arrivals and context matters significantly in the process of incorporation in that when receiving families are stably situated and children are received well, you also demonstrate that local institutions, whether it’s faith-based agencies, churches, local institutions, and co-ethnic communities can act as mediators in potentially hostile situations and bridge aspects to mobility.

So this makes me wonder, how might incorporation processes differ in states and communities with less immigrant friendly policies than California, particularly in context shaped by the current heightened anti-immigrant sentiment and restrictive governance at play? How applicable are these findings in geographies other than California, which also may have high unaccompanied immigrant populations?

The second question focuses on methodological reflections. So the methods of this book. While reading the introduction and the appendix, we learned that Stephanie spent six years embedded doing ethnographic research in immigrant enclaves in Los Angeles, in which you take the role of providing a lot of care to these young participants.

You serve, at times, as a bilingual tutor, giving participants rides, waiting until the right time to conduct the focus group. So you really act with care in this ethnographic research, and this made me wonder what guidance might you offer? Are the emerging scholars who attempt to build the same depth of community engagement in their work?

Is sustained immersive engagement essential to gain such insights, or are there alternative methodological approaches for similar studies, especially as researchers? We’re often told that we don’t have a lot of time to engage in research. So that is another question for you. Lastly, I’ll focus on policy and practice implications.

Those of us who study social inequities and access to services, our work is really ensuring equitable access to social service systems and the social service safety net. And you provide some important suggestions around how governments, schools, how institutions may invest in alternative and flexible education programs, giving, again, the shifting political landscape and restrictive immigration climate that we’re entering.

How can institutions and service systems translate these important findings into tangible and attainable guidance? How might institutions and governments support the educational and psychosocial needs of this population while we see that the social service landscape is evolving and becoming increasingly punitive? Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

 

CAITLIN PATLER: Hi, everyone. Thank you for being here. And thank you to Dr. Steph for providing this opportunity to engage with this beautifully written, incredibly well theorized, meticulously researched, deeply respectful at times, really quite painful. Had to put the book down a few times while reading it. But this portrayal of the experiences of undocumented and unaccompanied children.

So I’m going to do something similar to what Christina did, which is organize my thoughts around three things of many that I really thought were just incredible contributions to the book, and then pose three points for discussion. I wanted to share a little bit about how I came to this read, just the lenses through which I read.

I was introduced a little bit in terms of my academic work. So I was introduced as having spent a lot of time writing about young, undocumented immigrants who come to the United States as children, this sort of so-called dreamer group, who are all presumed to come to the US with the goal of either staying with or reunifying with their parents.

So as you say, the parents are such an important part of the story of the dreamer. I’ve also written a lot about the US immigration detention and deportation systems and how these laws define and structure normative and public perceptions of immigrant goodness and criminality, which I’ll come back to in a second.

And then finally, how many folks in here are from LA. I see the Dodgers hat in the back. OK. Anybody have lived or been through the Pico Union, Westlake, MacArthur Park area? OK. Yes. All right. So also in my previous life, before I was an academic, worked for many years in an immigrants rights organization right down there in Pico Union Westlake, and then later helped run a youth boxing program in Pico Union right on Venice and Pico. And many of the youth that would go to that boxing gym had very similar stories to the types that you mentioned in the book. And so I felt that deep and personal connection to the book, too, so thank you.

Which brings me to the kind of three main contributions. And actually, I think you did such a good job talking about the main theoretical contribution, which is to really help us rethink, refocus, really reconsider what are considered to be the paradigms of the immigrant integration literature. So maybe I’m actually going to skip over that so that our LA friends and everyone else have time to ask some questions.

But I will say, Dr. Steph really turns a lot of that on its head. And thank god. Like, we were all a little bit tired of hearing about downward assimilation. Other people have rightly criticized some of the many problematic elements of that, but you do so as well in a way that’s really, really important, focusing on the structural inequalities that compel youth toward disorientacion and can lead to perdition, and I’ll say more about that in a moment.

I want to underscore something you said, too, which is really about making forefront the emotional realities of immigrants lives, their emotional well-being, their physical health, and how those two things are related, and also come about and are influenced by the role of work primacy of basically living all day long in these very difficult work environments that contribute to both social and emotional poor health, really.

And that has– that really hasn’t been present or at least not at the forefront of a lot of the work on immigrant incorporation, and I’m so grateful to you for bringing it in. You centered the well-being of these young people so beautifully. You delved into their fear, their pain. You talked about how they described [SPANISH], [SPANISH], loneliness, agony.

I mean, this reminds me of some of the really beautiful work that sociologist Lacey Abrego has done and talking about transnational family lives and the pain of living in separation and just bringing that to the forefront, because that is so profoundly important for people’s lives when you live away from your family, when you don’t have that love to draw on every day. So I just appreciated that a lot.

Your book also speaks the unspoken. Your respondents talk to you about incest, about rape, about the sexualization of immigrant women and girls. Those parts were very hard for me to read. You talked about drug and alcohol abuse, suicidal ideation, and actual suicide, successful suicide. Very painful accounts of anti-indigenous racism, the complexities of families that some parents abandoned their children.

Those are things that I feel like the stereotype of the good immigrant just chokes people and doesn’t let them talk about the multifaceted– like, that life is complex. What was the word you used? Multi-dimensional. Yeah. Like, our families aren’t perfect. And people aren’t allowed to not have perfect families and perfect stories if they want to get ahead in this country. And that in and of itself is oppressive. So I wanted to applaud the book for doing that. And you do it beautifully and you do it subtly.

  1. Another thing I really think is cool and that I think more scholars need to do over and over and over again, and not just scholars, but anybody who’s talking about immigration, is to say it clearly over and over and over again, the structural relationship between US policies and what happens in countries of origin, and then what happens when migrants settle. And how those are all interrelated.

So I’m just going to use some of your words. So this is Dr. Steph writing. “The history of US intervention has destabilized political and economic systems and repressed collective action in countries of origin, imported violent gangs that prey on vulnerable children and their families, heightened environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources, and contributed to the rise of extreme poverty and debt, with few opportunities in these home countries for safety, mobility and well-being.” That’s US intervention.

And these very same home country conditions then, quote, “Force children to become knowing political and economic actors within their families and communities early in life. They are caught at the intersection of compulsion and choice as they make decisions to migrate.” But if that weren’t bad enough already– and a lot of us know this history of US intervention in Central America.

But we have to say it over and over and over again, because other people don’t know. And if that weren’t bad enough, then the US policies then structure what immigrant youth even can achieve once they get to the United States. Again, Stephanie writes, “US authorities not only create conditions for migration, they then criminalize immigrants once they are in the United States while barring them from accessing public assistance.”

You rightly call out this violence, quote, “To legally and socially construct barriers for immigrant families to secure young people’s mobility and well-being as they come of age and then weaponize families immobility as the justification for their legal and social exclusion is not only nonsensical, it is cruel.”

So this careful framing is just so utterly and beautifully sociological, and I just want to emphasize that a lot of us, again, in this room, we come to this work. We know that reality. We know that history, but a lot of other people don’t. And I just really appreciate how clearly you stated it and how important it is, especially right now when we’re just seeing this onslaught against immigrant communities from every direction to remind people that the US caused a lot of these problems, continues to cause problems that drive people out of their home countries, and then hurts those very same people who are forced to leave once they come here. And that those things are intimately related.

And it doesn’t mean that immigrants don’t have agency, that they don’t push back and resist a lot of that and do their very best within those contexts. It just means we have to name it. OK. And then my last thing I loved, and then I’ll get to my questions– I loved many things. But one of the things I thought was really, really great was your deep attention to methods and methodological precision, and that came up also in what Christina said.

I really appreciated the informant as expert. That methodology in which youth are the experts in their own lives. And you were not. You came in and you said, I have a relationship to this reality, but I’m not living in your shoes. I want your voice to structure the way I write about this, and you’ve done that.

I also want to say, if anyone in the room is thinking about doing an ethnographic project, I have not engaged in one like this myself. But I thought– I wrote down– I scribbled in the margins over and over. She has this beautiful methodological appendix that was also painful and hard to read. But it was like a real guidebook for students who want to do this work.

And you talk about your own socioemotional and physical health and how it’s hard to witness the kind of pain that you witnessed, the challenges you faced as a– you described yourself as a young female researcher doing this work in areas that are often male dominated. Those were REAL Insights about research that we don’t often get, the raw truths that some of us run into when we do this work that others do not. So for anyone teaching students, I really highly recommend that methodological appendix.

All right. So a few topics for discussion. Great. OK. So I was thinking a lot about work primacy. We’ve talked a lot about– we’ve talked a little bit about this in some of the work that I do. I’m working with people who have been released from immigration detention, and they’re trying to re-enter the world and work– shapes their lives too, because they also have to make ends meet. And they end up working in secondary labor markets as well.

And those labor markets are exploitative, and the jobs are very difficult. But they’re actually able to work precisely because it’s in these secondary labor markets where undocumented immigration status is the norm. It’s considered, quote, the cost of doing business. Employers have this don’t ask, don’t tell policy around that, and they seem to be doing something very similar by hiring children, which is also not lawful. Or that there are also barriers to those children’s participation in more formal labor markets. So I just thought I’d love to hear more about the kind of distinct role of secondary labor markets in work primacy.

And then, let’s see, I would love– I know you previewed your baby sister to this book, but I really was– I thought you very importantly drew attention to how anti-indigenous sentiment shapes settlement experiences. And I would welcome you to say more about how scholars should theorize and think about indigeneity in the context of US racial structures and hierarchies, and how can we do better about addressing that in our work.

And then my last comment is really about where we are right now today facing a Trump 2.0. And I know– one of the things that struck me was that not a lot of what you wrote about was fear of apprehension by ICE or by immigration or even by the police. And I thought that was so interesting because so much of this work is about people, quote, unquote, “living in the shadows” and living in the shadow of fear, really.

And the idea that their whole lives are determined by this fear of being discovered. And you don’t really– that didn’t seem to come up. I mean, in terms of youth being experts, they were not talking about that. And so I’d like to hear, do you think– what do you think might have chan– has anything changed since you left the field in 2018?

Do you think– what would they say if you asked them today how they feel. And then how would that change the policy and programmatic recommendations you made at the end of the book? What can we all think about collectively doing to promote the well-being of this very important and very vulnerable group of immigrants and also immigrants in general? I’ll leave it there. Thanks.

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

Yeah. Can I just– We don’t have too much time, but I’ll just make a few comment. Oh, thank you. An Author meets critics. Like, the critics really killed me when I got the invite for this because I was like, no, only friends can read my book.

[LAUGHTER]

So I really appreciate the– you know, it’s almost an out-of-body experience to hear how people receive the thing that you’ve– I’ve spent 14 years working on this project. I’m going to cry saying this, but I really appreciate your time and attention. I appreciate that you– like, I wrote this book in solitude. We were in a lockdown. No one read it until it was done.

And to have the things that were heavy– I think, embodied heavy on me, that I needed people to know that I wrote draft after draft alone in my room, I just appreciate so much hearing the resonance, and it makes it feel like, sure, tenure, sure, all of these things. But it’s also just, I feel like I know things that I need other people– now I need you all to know, and help.

Let’s do it together because you just carry it. You’re the only person that knows for so long. So I appreciate the kindness with which you showed up, and also just the attention you gave it. So yay. Thanks. Yeah. Do we want to take other questions and maybe I’ll just mesh them all together?

SARAH SONG: Questions from the audience. Yes.

AUDIENCE: Ooh, that’s a lot.

[LAUGHTER]

SARAH SONG: There’s a mic. There’s a mic.

AUDIENCE: First of all, it doesn’t matter. Ooh, my heart is racing right now. So let me take a minute. How to speak in this space, especially talking about this particular group of undocumented students. I mean, documented persons. I look forward to reading your book. I am myself an undocumented graduate student without DACA who has– I mean, as I hear the stories, yeah, I grew up in that type of environment.

I don’t know. I guess my questions, I have two questions. One of them is, I never understood or never considered my experience as an unaccompanied minor. And so I was wondering what exactly is– I think, if I understood correctly, you’re unaccompanied minor as you’re traveling. But once you’re here, you might potentially be meeting your family, which I think was my case. But I never thought of myself as an unaccompanied minor, which is interesting to process that information.

And then the second one was more just language stuff. I’m in the English department here, but the usage of incorporation and assimilation. So moving between those two. It seemed like you were just using them, like–

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Interchangeably, yeah.

SARAH SONG: –interchangeably Yes. Sorry, I’m a bit nervous. Shaky. Yeah. So I guess the main question that I had was that, yeah, how do we– like you were describing. And I guess once I read the book, I’ll get a better sense of it. But what how do– what is considered unaccompanied in this particular situation? Thank you.

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Yeah. So unaccompanied minor federal law, it is a term used to describe someone who migrates before the age of 18, no legal status at the point of apprehension, and no guardian or caregiver with them at the point of apprehension. That means you have to be apprehended, and you have to be classified as those things to have the title of unaccompanied minor.

And then that gives you the rights and responsibilities bestowed to that particular group. Like immediately put in removal proceedings, the right to different social services, so on and so forth. The way I talk about unaccompanied, because I’m bringing the material and emotional dimensions of the experience together, I refer to an unaccompanied child as someone who migrates unaccompanied regardless of apprehension and who lives unaccompanied.

So by my definition, then a young person who meets a long settled relative, like, the federal government still gives an unaccompanied– a child an unaccompanied minor title if they’re reunified with a parent in the US, which I don’t know that you’re– so in some ways, your experience might overlap with that. But is that child then unaccompanied in their coming of age? So I talk about it as, you don’t have an adult in the room that is you’re experiencing socialization through or that is a liaison between you and institutions.

So I just made that up, and you get to do that when you write a book. And I love that for me. So I think that then allows me to say, there are experiences of unaccompaniment that then– things like I talk in the book about the importance of the [SPANISH]. I talk in the book about unburdening, the venting.

We can then– if there’s no parent or sibling or someone in the household caring for you and you are truly materially and emotionally unaccompanied, there’s null space of this [SPANISH] at the end of the day where you say, this happened to me, I did this. I met this person. Good thing or bad. I talk about the importance of witnessing having a witness, someone who validates that you are– so many of the young people were eager to be interviewed by me, and they would say, thank you so much for asking me these questions.

And I’m like, thank you for letting me write something about you. But the fact that no one had witnessed them because they were unaccompanied. So being able to use the word in a way that I think encapsulates the lived experience regardless of federal designation. And that people can be, again, unaccompanied but not alone.

There can be a point of accompaniment where young people are living alongside one another. Or Wilfredo and other people that I met in the field who intentionally sought to create spaces where youth that were living in this particular circumstance could make friends with one another or provide each other advice, [SPANISH] guidance, that sort of thing. Witnessing, I think, is really important. Which– oh, go ahead.

AUDIENCE: Hi. Thank you very much for the presentation and for the comments and so on. I’m from the architectural background, so I’m an architect. I’m doing research in migration and also refugee and so on. So I’m interested in your research, also from the point of view of the space. I don’t know if doing the research in Los Angeles is the same– I mean, the context of the city of Los Angeles.

I mean, how does this context affect the life of the people in terms of– I can imagine that creating community maybe in Los Angeles is not the same as creating community in Berkeley or wherever. So I think, how did you incorporate this kind of parameter, the space in your methodology? Yeah. If there is better spaces or better cities or better, yeah, institutions that work with the space, like, public space where people can build this community. That’s my issue.

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Yeah. I really– I can’t tell if this is on. OK. I really appreciate that comment. And I think it goes to the context of reception. And also, how applicable is this to another geography question. I’m doing it. So I’ll say this. There are some empirical components of the work that are simply not applicable to somewhere in Arkansas or Kansas or somewhere where there isn’t a long history of migration. There isn’t a density of– the Pico Union is little Central America in Los Angeles. And actually in the US, it is the highest density place of central Americans.

Long history of immigrant rights organizing some mediocre public transportation. The idea that you can both be deeply embedded in a secondary labor market. There is a concentration of that deeply exploitative work there. And that young people can hide in plain sight. They don’t talk about federal– even Obama’s language trickled down into conversations, but it was language, the rhetoric, the shithole country, the bad hombres talk, not so much, the policy shift affects my life because they’re so insulated in Pico Union, which is neighboring to downtown LA and walking– they’re just walking around.

I talk a little bit in the book about how disorientacion, adaptacion– disorientacion. Disorientation to orientation occurs spatially. My neighborhood, my block, my neighborhood. This workplace, that workplace. Now I’ll cross the street to this other– and then they learn the beach cities, and then maybe they want to go to San Francisco and see the Golden Gate Bridge.

And that is still disorientation to orientation to adaptation cyclically. I talk to people– it’s like a helix. You become oriented to this, so then you do the next one, and then your social world grows in that way. In which case, that is the component of the work that I think is applicable across geography, across context. That you can be plopped into Arkansas, middle of nowhere. I don’t know why Arkansas, but that’s what I decided.

And that you would be disoriented, and then you become oriented, and then you adapt to that place. And then you arrive to Los Angeles, and then you’re disoriented again. And you just keep undergoing these processes in which I say in the conclusion, aren’t we all then always doing that? Aren’t we all constantly being disoriented?

You get a new job. I just got here in August. I’m a little disoriented. And then the process keeps happening. So I think that is the sort of– regardless of where you are, even outside of the US context, I imagine it is experienced in that helix way. And then this idea of the work primacy. In Los Angeles, it might be work primacy to the garment industry or to the hotels in downtown LA.

But again, you might be in a rural place of the US where it’s meatpacking and roofing, and that’s the primacy of the work. And it might be even more severe there because there isn’t the organizations and the organizing and the churches. So I think that– it might be even more intensified in a place where there isn’t the built environment around you that lets you diversify your Sunday afternoon, even if your Monday through Saturday is all work. [LAUGHS]

SARAH SONG: Do we–

STEPHANIE CANIZALES: Yeah. I think what I would love to do is answer that. Like, the way forward, you each had like policy practice implications. One as it relates to the research. I think this research is both more important than ever and also will be harder to get funded than ever.

So I’m not sure that– I got NSF funding to do this fieldwork for a year and a half. I got different foundations that were very focused on– again, I was in grad school 2011 through 20– I don’t even want to say it out loud, to 2018, and there were foundations that were getting federal funding to do this work. And I benefited from that. I don’t know that those resources will be as robustly available, so I don’t know that it’s– honestly, I’m going to be very honest. I don’t know that you could do a six year long ethnography.

But I do think that more and more– because of the anti-immigrant sentiment, just the spillover– the chilling effect of– like, all of these punitive immigration laws, the embeddedness is actually more important now than ever to get people to talk to you about things like incest, the suicidal ideation, to uncover those really sensitive topics that I didn’t get in interviews. I only got in observations.

Like, I wouldn’t have known that. And I didn’t interview someone that was experiencing actively a place of perdition, that was being domestically abused or that was using drugs and alcohol to cope with– to fill the void. That was something I saw. So I think there needs to be, I think, a little bit of scrappiness with the way we move forward in order to do embedded, meaningful work that illuminates people’s lives in this way.

And then in terms of the policy implications, I think you were asking, like, what can we all do? And then, Caitlin, you were asking, how would my policy recommendations change? I think there’s one thing that I tell people and that I mentioned, this idea of [SPANISH], the unburdening and the witnessing.

Simple, simple things that aren’t actually like– you can’t do the organizing. Some people ask me, what is the process of taking in an unaccompanied child? And I’m like, OK, that is the extreme. Like, let me save a child vibe that I don’t recommend anyone walk away with that takeaway. But I think the [SPANISH] and the witnessing are simple things we can do every day that can make a difference between a child experiencing adaptacion or perdicion.

I make it clear, all of these young people– I try to make it clear in the book that all of these young people were constrained by the same structural forces. And the thing that fork in the road made it one way or the other was a meaningful social tie. Which is then all of our burden to walk around knowing that human-social relationship, it isn’t just the information that’s shared across social networks and the capital that’s built. It’s also the witnessing that is important for all of us, but especially for adolescents transitioning into young adulthood. The feeling of being lost. No one knows I’m here. No one knows I’m going through this. It could be really detrimental to young people.

And then thankfully, I would say that my conclusion would not change. My policy recommendations are the same. I’ve learned through my work with the federal government, that they don’t like– they do not like reading anything that’s prescribes, these are the steps of the things you have to do. Because if step 2 is not feasible by the law or by funding, they’ll throw out anything. And they’re not going to sit there and be creative about how to apply.

So I rewrote my whole conclusion after I learned that fact in a conversation in DC. And I said, OK, on the level of ideology, on the level of this managing emotion and material wor– emotional material world simultaneously, my recommendations will stand. Recognize the refugee status of children. Recognize the importance of legal status.

If you don’t want to legalize children, offer legal protection to children, what about the people that have been here for 15 or 20 years that you’re expecting to receive them? Can you support the system you believe is supposed to be functioning in a certain way? Can you believe in children’s ability to define for themselves?

I think the book opens with the conversation, like, what would you want the government to do for you locally, regionally, or at the federal level? And they said, listen to us. Like, children have insight. Young people have insight into what matters to them. And that, I think, is something I still think needs to happen.

And we need to empower a youth movement and unaccompanied youth movement in the same way that dreamers and DACA youth really thrust themselves to the fore of the immigrant rights debate. We can do that again. And it will be harder, but it is, again, still– one of the most important things you can do is tell the stories and illuminate the complexity of children’s lives.

SARAH SONG: Thank you so much, Stephanie, Kristina, and Caitlin. Thank you. Thank you all for coming.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

 

Authors Meet Critics

Authoritarian Absorption: The Transnational Remaking of Epidemic Politics in China

Recorded on November 13, 2024, this Authors Meet Critics” panel centered on the book Authoritarian Absorption: The Transnational Remaking of Epidemic Politics in China, by Yan Long, Assistant Professor in the UC Berkeley Department of Sociology.

Professor Long was joined in conversation by Matthew Kohrman, Associate Professor in the Department of Anthropology at Stanford University; and Rachel E. Stern, Professor of Law and Political Science at Berkeley Law, and the Pamela P. Fong and Family Distinguished Chair in China Studies. The panel was moderated by Tom Gold, Professor of Sociology Emeritus at UC Berkeley.

The panel was presented as part of the Social Science Matrix Authors Meet Critics book series, which features lively discussions about recently published books authored by social scientists at UC Berkeley. For each event, the author discusses the key arguments of their book with fellow scholars.

About the Book

Authoritarian Absorption portrays the rebuilding of China’s pandemic response system through its anti-HIV/AIDS battle from 1978 to 2018. Going beyond the conventional domestic focus, Yan Long analyzes the influence of foreign interventions which challenged the post-socialist state’s inexperience with infectious diseases and pushed it towards professionalizing public health bureaucrats and embracing more liberal, globally aligned technocratic measures. This transformation involved a mix of confrontation and collaboration among transnational organizations, the Chinese government, and grassroots movements, which turned epidemics into a battleground for enhancing the state’s domestic control and international status.

Foreign interveners effectively mobilized China’s AIDS movement and oriented activists towards knowledge-focused epistemic activities to propel the insertion of Western rules, knowledge, and practices into the socialist systems. Yet, Chinese bureaucrats played this game to their advantage by absorbing some AIDS activist subgroups—notably those of urban HIV-negative gay men—along with their foreign-trained expertise and technical proficiency into the state apparatus. This move allowed them to expand bodily surveillance while projecting a liberal façade for the international audience.

Drawing on longitudinal-ethnographic research, Long argues against a binary view of Western liberal interventions as either success or failure, highlighting instead the paradoxical outcomes of such efforts. On one hand, they can bolster public health institutions in an authoritarian context, a development pivotal to China’s subsequent handling of COVID-19 and instrumental in advancing the rights of specific groups, such as urban gay men. On the other hand, these interventions may reinforce authoritarian control and further marginalize certain populations—such as rural people living with HIV/AIDS and female sex workers—within public health systems.

Podcast and Transcript

Listen to the presentation as a podcast below or on Apple Podcasts.

[OPENING LOGO]

[MARION FOURCADE] Welcome, everybody. My name is Marion Fourcade. I’m the Director of Social Science Matrix, and I am absolutely delighted to welcome you to this book panel for my colleague from the Sociology Department, Yan Long. Authoritarian Absorption: The Transnational Remaking of Epidemic Politics in China is officially out as of this morning. So there is– yes, that– [CHUCKLE]

[AUDIENCE APPLAUDING]

And you can buy it from an unnamed website starting next week. And the book portrays the rebuilding of China’s pandemic response system through its anti-HIV/AIDS battle from 1978 to 2018.

Yan analyzes the interactions between local officials, Western donors, international organizations, and health activists to understand how public health expertise in China both expanded during this period and also became bureaucratized.

It is really a stunning read. It’s a longitudinal ethnography. I really highly recommend it to you. So today’s event is part of Our Author Meets Critic Series, which features critically engaged discussions about recent books from our division. And it is also co-sponsored by the Department of Sociology.

Before I introduce our moderator, let me just mention a few events that are coming up. The Global Democracy Comments on November 21. We’ll try to make sense of what just happened in the United States. On December 3, another Author Meets Critics by another sociologist. Actually, it’s all sociologists this end of year.

It’s not a particular bias. It just happened that we had books together. So Stephanie Canizales will present her book. And then my own book, I’ll lecture on my own book in December. So this is for the upcoming events. But now let me introduce our intrepid moderator who just came from teaching and is now starting in a new role.

Thomas Gold is Professor of Sociology Emeritus at UC Berkeley– emeritus, but still teaching– where he taught from 1981 to 2018. His research focuses on social, political, and cultural change in China and Taiwan. And his list of publications is very long. So let me just mention the most recent book titled Sunflowers And Umbrellas: Social Movements, Expressive Practices, and Political Culture in Taiwan and Hong Kong that was co-edited with Sebastian Veg.

So, Tom, the floor is yours. And you can introduce the book and the panelist.

Thank you.

[THOMAS GOLD] Thank you.

Thanks, Marion. And I apologize for getting here late. Yes, I retired six years ago, but they pulled me back in. And here I am teaching Soc 1. So should I introduce the whole panel before we start?

[INAUDIBLE]

So, of course, our main speaker is Yan Long– Long Yan. It’s a problem with Chinese with two names. It’s hard to know which is surname, and which is the first. We call first name.

But Long Yan is an Assistant Professor in the Sociology Department here. Political and organizational sociologist studying the interactions between globalization and authoritarian politics across empirical areas such as public health, civic action, urban development, and digital technology with a geographic focus on China.

Her recent research investigates the urban politics around COVID-19 testing in China. She concentrates on how community mobilization facilitates or undermines the utilization of digital tools in public health measures.

Then to her left is Matthew Kaufman, Associate Professor at the Department of Anthropology, and by courtesy, the Department of Medicine. Senior Fellow by courtesy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford. Matt’s research and writing bring anthropological methods to bear on the ways health, culture, and politics are interrelated.

His first monograph, Bodies Of Difference Experiences of Disability and Institutional Advocacy– this is his first book, Experiences of Disability and Institutional Advocacy in the Making of Modern China.

Over the last decade, he’s been involved in research aimed at analyzing and intervening in the bio-politics of cigarette smoking among Chinese citizens. More recently, he’s begun projects linking ongoing interests at the intersection of phenomenology and political economy with questions regarding environmental attunement and the arts.

And Rachel Stern is Professor of Law and Political Science and currently holds the Pamela P. Fong and Family Distinguished Chair in China Studies here at Berkeley. Her research looks at law in mainland China and Hong Kong, especially the relationship between legal institution building, political space, and professionalization. She’s the author of Environmental Litigation in China: A Study in Political Ambivalence.

She’s currently part of a collaborative effort to analyze the 60 plus million Chinese judicial decisions placed online following a 2014 policy change. This massive expansion in the public record of court activity promises to reshape our understanding of Chinese law beyond China, of authoritarian legality. So with that, I will turn it over to Professor Long.

[YAN LONG] Thank you.

 

[THOMAS GOLD] You’re going to use the PowerPoint?

[YAN LONG] Yeah, I’m going use. Thank you so very much for the introduction. And Thank you very much for coming. This is a great pleasure to share my book. Since I only have 20 minutes, so I’m going to be really brief. And as an ethnographer, it’s a shame that I cannot really share the most important part for me, which is the field work.

But hopefully, you get a little bit of flare from today’s presentation. OK. So Infections. Infections have always been very daunting. But the newly emerging epidemics from HIV/AIDS, swine flu to Ebola and COVID-19 had introduced novel uncertainties about state responses.

So for those of you who are familiar with [INAUDIBLE] might think, OK, of course, medical surveillance that is such a core to the state responses to anything. However, in reality, emerging epidemics actually define such assumptions. So basically, we would see drastically different responses from various governments around the world to COVID-19 as a demonstration.

Even the same government might change its attitude to the same epidemic overnight. So in China, for three years, nobody can actually enter into the hospital without getting COVID-19 test. But nowadays, even with potential symptoms, the doctors will not test you for COVID-19. So basically, this is how my book takes on this questions.

Under what conditions does a state forfeit or acquire the desire and the means to actually consider unfamiliar epidemics as worthy of attention and restructure its administration to manage them? So the state must make a series of very difficult decisions.

First of all, how the transmission and treatment of those diseases shall be regulated or deregulated, which populations pains actually count as suffering, and who shall take on responsibilities to care and treat for those infected? Ultimately, this is about the building of public health institutions, which for whatever reasons, have not received a lot of attention from sociologists, probably a little bit more from political scientists.

So in studying public health or institutions in general, scholars have largely focused on domestic factors. This is particularly true when scholars try to understand authoritarian regimes. After all, for example, countries such as Russia, Cuba, and China had a very long history of using public health as instruments to achieve socialist revolution.

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, many scholars or practitioners or just journalists also come up with this idea of what we call as authoritarian advantages. So basically, the success or failure of authoritarian countries to tackle infectious disease are always considered as a natural functions of their regime type.

So contrary to the conventional wisdom, my first book actually showed that the seemingly distinctive authoritarian public health institutions might not be endogenous to the country. Instead, we shall look at transnational factors or foreign interventions as I focus.

So my book is about how transnational AIDS interventions actually drove China’s infectious disease control systems rebuilding between 1978 to 2018. So nowadays, as we blame or praise China, you’ve got to think about it. It looks really similar to what’s going on here in the United States. And I will get into a little bit more details later.

So hopefully I have some time to use my ongoing research for my second book to talk about how the established characteristics continue or transformed during the COVID-19 era. And here I wanted to emphasize that China is really not an exceptional case. Because health officials in the Global South are often caught between transnational organizations and local situations.

So here is to show you the funding that spend on HIV/AIDS interventions in the Global South, middle, and lower-income countries. Even up to nowadays, almost 50% of that funding comes from the Global North. So I always say you can blame the United States empire. However you want, but global health is actually one of the things that it really contributes to since America is the biggest donor in global health areas.

So it’s a pretty long book. And there are two arguments from the book I want to highlight today. So first, using HIV/AIDS governance as a case study, I wanted to show you that transnational organizations have used every measure, including one billion US dollar, to build a liberty-oriented HIV/AIDS governance in China.

And then secondly, I wanted to talk a little bit about how foreign interventions with the whole process of learning and incorporating transnational rules and practices, especially democratic ones, actually did not weaken but actually strengthened the infrastructure power of authoritarian China.

So in many ways, the book is about how the Democratic liberal world actually contributed to the persistence and consolidation of authoritarianism in China. And liberal interventions actually do matter. It doesn’t work in a way that we imagine.

And there are other two themes that in the book that I don’t have time to go through. One is the life and death enduring epidemic, and different people’s life actually count very differently. And there is definitely a hierarchy of whose life matters more in this process. And secondly, there is a major part of the book that talks about the operation of international agencies in China.

I’m very proud of that part because I think I’m probably the only one whose studies does internal ethnography in that field, but we probably don’t have time to go through it. So my goal is not simply to just contribute to global health studies. Rather, my book is trying to speak to a core debate in international relations and world politics, especially as the United States is spending billions of dollars overseas.

So how do foreign interventions actually matter in authoritarian regimes? In fact, transnational interventions regularly fail. That’s the rule. It fails. It doesn’t work. And similar interventions I’m talking about here had actually happened in many Southern countries. Some authoritarian states, such as Russia, unsurprisingly kept the transnational aid programs completely outside to protect its sovereignty.

But other countries such as Uganda, even Iran, actually accepted quite some transnational practices. So what makes it even more puzzling is that foreign interventions further strengthened the unequal landscape of public health in China as urban HIV-negative gay men benefited the most from foreign interventions.

So how would the transnational law fare in authoritarian countries? Especially why would China, as a very homophobic state, make any concessions when it comes to homosexuality issues?

So foreign efforts to change targeted governments behaviors are very old phenomena. We’re still seeing this huge debate nowadays. And scholars often applaud or praise this kind of interventions into targeted countries to correct the government’s non-democratic behaviors.

I think we see a lot around, for example, Russia. This is what I call a corrective approach. So it basically assumes that as long as you adopt some liberal practices, it is adapt towards integrating or assimilating into the world of Democratic governance. And the corrective effects happen in two ways.

One is directly. You use carrots or you use sanctions, try to change their behaviors. And then there is also indirect mechanism, which is transnational collaboration. Because most governments are not susceptible to the foreign interventions. So sometimes the foreign organizations must collaborate with domestic activists trying to change the government’s behavior.

So as you can see here, this triangular interactions between these three entities, certainly are very important. And I also agree that transnational organizations pushed their way into China exactly because they successfully cultivated a very powerful AIDS movement, which is a major part of the book.

However, the problem is, scholars often assume that the antagonism between transnational organizations and domestic activists on one side, OK, they’re the good guys. And then the authoritarian state on the other. In reality, those entities actions or relations are in constant motion, and they don’t follow any specific scripts for long.

And another problem is scholars often predominantly focus on one set of outcomes, which is basically different degrees of corrections. OK. We want to see Democratic improvement. So it’s either compliance or resistance from the targeted states. So you can see that a lot of the discussion about whether sanctions work. That’s pretty much along that way.

But the problem is, interventions don’t really only achieve intended goals, and it can go various ways. So in my book, alternatively, I argue that interventions don’t just impose negative corrections on existing authoritarian practices as intended.

They can rather prescribe positive incentives, opportunities, and means for government organizations to build what my comments often refer to as specialized capacities or infrastructure power to penetrate and organize the bodies of different people.

So this is what I call authoritarian absorption. Such absorption of transnational resources, networks, cultural rules, and organizational models can create brand-new practices. So this kind of absorption can take place directly through bureaucratic learning The direct interactions between foreign organizations and targeted government agencies can certainly generate new behavior.

But then another major part of the book talks about this indirect mechanism, which is through no one other, but social movements. So interveners can train and cultivate very powerful social movements to carry transnational practices into the targeted domestic context.

Secondly, while activists push for changes, the government organizations can actually respond in ways that re-appropriate those transnational rules and practices for very authoritarian purposes. So for those of you who love Star Wars as much as I do– OK, so just remember Anakin Skywalker, who trained him? We’re talking about the Jedi actually trained him only for him to become Darth Vader.

So in many ways, social movements are not just this rosy good guys. When they formulate, they can serve very different purposes. So just because gay men activism was cultivated by foreign funding and resources, you cannot assume that they would absolutely go up against the homophobic, authoritarian states.

So before I show a little bit of my data– actually just some cases. I wanted to show you a little bit about my multi-sited longitudinal fieldwork. So between 2007 and 2018, over a course of 11 years, I had to trace the development of China’s AIDS politics through conducting fieldwork at three different sites.

One is transnational AIDS institutions and different organizations. The second is the Chinese state, and the third one is the three different groups of community-based organizations. Also, when it comes to Chinese state, I investigated different organizations from health, civil affairs, Foreign Affairs, to police and security.

So here is just a laundry list of various things. It’s a combination of archival research, ethnographic research, as well as interviews with hundreds of officials– government officials, as well as community leaders. If you’re interested, I can show you more details during Q&A.

But here is just to give you some snapshot of what my research site looks like. Especially– for example, I don’t have time. On the left, you can see I don’t have time to talk about, for example, the Global Fund meeting, which is the largest transnational entities in HIV/AIDS, infectious disease overall.

So all the presentations were given in both English and Chinese. I don’t have time to get into details, but for those of you who– I know at Berkeley, we always talk about neoliberalism, the US empire. But come on, like international agencies, life in China, very difficult, very difficult.

And then on the left– the bottom, that was the Beijing government. And then on the right– so you can see the right bottom corner, that was where I usually hang out with the gay activists, which I will talk a little bit more today. But on the top, since I don’t have time to talk about the rural activists, I just wanted to show you a little bit of what one of their rural organizers home looks like.

So there was a mountain of trash and garbage right next door. It was summer when I visited. So I wanted to remind you in that household, there were three children under 10, and two of them were HIV positive. The smell was overwhelming. And you cannot see because all the walls and the floors were covered in flies.

Because at the time, I had an open wound in my leg. So it was just too much. And I ended– that was less than one hour interview. That was the shortest interview I’ve ever done. So that’s one of the things I don’t have time to talk about. But it was very prominent in the book, which is suffering’s, life and death. And it actually matters the least when it comes to epidemic politics.

  1. So let me quickly show you the 40-year history of public health building revealed in this book. So here is just to show you the funding for HIV/AIDS intervention in China over the years from the 1990’s. I don’t have the data before that. But basically, there was no funding.

So China’s contemporary public health had not really started to develop until the early 2000. So in the 1980s and 1990s, for two decades, the party had completely abandoned the Maoist tradition of emphasizing public health.

So back then, the concept of epidemiology hardly existed as its wealth grew, the state was really not willing to put money into public health. So there was not really institutional building per se. So you can see here on the right, that was the Prime Minister, Li Qiang, visiting China CDC for COVID-19. But this entity was not founded until 2002.

So nobody at the Ministry of Health back in the 1980s would ever imagine that one day it would host an international briefing on the left, on the sharing his experiences about COVID-19 with WHO– World Health Organization. Neither can it imagine that public health would one day become a very important part of China’s growing impact in Africa.

So let’s go back to the book. So first three chapters in my book talk about this unseen infectious era when public health department basically denounced professional expertise and technical knowledge with hardly any funding. Since the public health main task at the time was really to defend the socialist moral boundaries. If you’re interested, I can talk more about it during Q&A.

So at the time, they would treat infectious diseases such as HIV as a foreign disease undeserving of recognition, which resulted in China’s largest HIV/AIDS outbreak in the 1990s. And the transnational organizations began to intervene in the 1990s.

In the late 1990s, as you can see, the funding started to grow. But it didn’t really go anywhere until early 2000, when they brought an unprecedented amount of political pressure. That was when health finally became a very important political issue because of SARS. Then it started this whole process of democratizing public health in China.

So the rest of six chapters in my book demonstrate how such foreign interventions– you can see the huge drive, the rise in the funding, not just in the international side, but also from the domestic side. Just to show you the public health bureaucracy expansion, Chinese health departments began to cultivate the specialized capacities and professional identities by learning from especially the US and the UK experts.

So nowadays, local agents had to study and implement a US-style project managerial skills such as basic accounting and finance, especially, as well as substantial techniques for conducting statistically robust randomized, controlled, and cost-effective interventions.

So departments began to increase their staff with epidemiology background, as well as biology or preventive medicine, instead of just public hygiene degrees from vocational schools. So it’s fast to show you that there is this what I call projectified contracting model. It’s all about the contracts and the projects. And I think we academics know the difference between doing research versus doing research project.

So transnational funding accounted for between 30% to 70% of funding for China’s HIV/AIDS programs in the 2000. And it pushes the whole conception of projects into health departments as a whole. AIDS funding also accounted for almost half of public health funding at the time, which is one of the reasons why it was such a driving force in terms of public health reform.

Even when transnational programs, you can see began to pull out after 2013, the institutionalization of project continued. So nowadays the Chinese government actually took over and injected a large amount of funding. It also applied the projects to tackling other infectious disease as well as chronic disease.

Nowadays, HIV actually has very low prevalence rate in China, but the mortality is very high. So before COVID, it was the biggest killer among all infectious disease in China. But again, before COVID, the central government continued to invest at least 30% of public health funding onto this disease.

  1. So I want to talk a little bit about how does authoritarian absorption work in this process. So my book focuses on these two mechanisms. One is directly how does the bureaucrats learn the professional knowledge as well as other capacities from foreign agencies. And especially very importantly, I talk about how transnational organizations can breed the government agencies interests to recognize certain disease and affected populations as worthy government objects.

But the second one is to really think about how the social movements play a role in this process. So I’m going to give you one story, one story of Yao Ming. So he had been a leader of gay community in the northern city since the 1990s. Back then, homosexuality was a moral corruption. It was a political taboo that the state refused to acknowledge at all.

So several medical doctors who try to study homosexuality actually was forced to commit suicide at the time. So community leaders like Yao Ming were pretty much hiding away in the shadow trying to avoid police harassment. Thanks to foreign resources and legitimacy, he co-founded Rainbow Group to organize in the name of AIDS Intervention in 2003.

And the group’s relationship with the local authorities had been quite contentious in the 2000s. But the relationship had completely changed in the 2010s when local health department regularly supported the Rainbow Group’s activities. Starting in 2014, local CDC officials would even attend their gay Pride Month activities every year.

By 2018, Rainbow Group had grown to become this very big health organization that provide not only gay men, but also the youth and migrant workers with HIV, STD, Hepatitis C, and other services. They were also a very key factor during the COVID-19 battles.

So this is just one example to show you how homosexuality had changed from a moral to a public health issue. So in this photo, again, the Prime Minister, Li Qiang. This was the first time he ever shook hands with community leaders on TV. And guess what? This was an HIV/AIDS intervention event. And most of the people, the majority of the people there were HIV negative men– OK, gay men.

So gay men organizations– and this was basically displayed in front of– as you can see, the white lady in the picture was a UN representative. It was basically to showcase China was very much committed to this community mobilization style– liberal style of public health campaigns.

So this was really unexpected change. And if you’re interested, I can talk more about the homophobic state. China is still a very homophobic state in this sense. But the point is what had brought this once antagonistic government and urban activists together?

 

So in my book, I probably don’t have time to get into the details. But let me see. But just to leave this question here, if you’re interested, I could talk more about how those two come together. But just to conclude, since I really only have 20 minutes, one other thing is to really think about– to rethink about infectious disease control and state building in the context of world order, whether this is really just a domestic issue. But to really think about what roles it played in the establishment of China as whole, or the rise of China as a superpower.

But the second one, today I don’t have time to get into details, but really to think about how to bring organizational theories into international relations studies. So it’s not just about the politics, it’s not about democratic or authoritarian, but really to think about why different organizations would operate in certain ways. And that is a very key to understanding why transnational organizations with the mission to democratize the rest of the world actually ended up doing the opposite things.

But the third one is to really think about civil society from a transnational perspective. Obviously, as you can see, when the government leaders were shaking hands with gay men, where were the rural activists? They were on the street protesting during the same period, and they were just sent home. So civil society is a very stratified world, and who got on top and who got on the bottom becomes very important.

And in the end, I wanted to just respond to the people always talk about authoritarians or the advantage in doing certain things. OK? As if Trump becomes this Superman, strongman, the things would change. But one of the things it might be much more subtle, but I want to highlight that China’s nowadays infectious disease control looks very much like US because it absorbed the two key points about the system here.

One is, it is all about disease-oriented rather than system-oriented infectious disease response. So that’s one of the major thing. Another thing is the technical-oriented tendency. So China is even more obsessed with numbers, with labs, with technical preventive measures, rather than providing substantial care and other things that are very important for public health.

So there are several features that actually was established during the HIV era that continues. One is the fluctuation of states wealth and ability to see pandemic. It’s still going to be a battle, and it’s not going to be about the mortality or other factors that takes a role. And secondly is, what I just mentioned, the enhancement of technical bodily surveillance.

It’s very funny that one of the gay activists talk about it because they will become such an important object of state intervention. They were subjected to constant blood tests, and they were very happy during the COVID-19 era because everybody had to go through that test every day. So the prioritization of testing over treatment, that was also one thing that the opposite of United States, but in a similar sort of flare.

The third one is the neglect of rural regions in epidemic infrastructure, and then the pivotal roles of non-state actors in pandemic control. That’s what continue to be praised as community participation that can actually work really well in the authoritarian context. But last but not least is the intertwining of China’s pandemic strategies with its global interactions. Actually, during the Trump era, United States was pretty much giving up its leader roles in global health during COVID. It was when Biden came into office that started this whole new competition with China to use vaccine diplomacy to fight again.

So we don’t know what’s going to happen next in the global health era. And I will just stop there. Thank you so very much for your attention.

[THOMAS GOLD] I want to thank Yan for an exceptional job of summing up an unbelievably rich and complex book. And now we’ll turn to Matt and then Rachel for their comments.

[MATTHEW KOHRMAN] OK. So yeah, thank you so much. This was a pleasure to read from beginning to end. On so many levels, I recommend to you all this breathtakingly sophisticated book. It’s not a hard read. I mean, you would think a book on the AIDS pandemic, oh my gosh, a long 300 page book. It just reads, it just goes. And it goes because of the fantastic design of the argument. It goes, and it flows because the way you interweave historical scope and the way you rigorously chronicle in a very vivid way, the formation of the AIDS epidemic in China. Going back to the mid 1950s and the foundational ways that infection and health were set up in the 1950s under Mao, with the patriotic health campaigns. Which for those of you who don’t know, we’re very much tied to US military intervention in Northeast Asia, particularly the Korean War.

I also just found the book vivid and exciting to read because of its ethnographic depth. The texture, the ethnographic flair that you bring to it based on just really, really what struck me as hard, difficult fieldwork that you were doing across so many different registers– especially in the rural context– was just remarkable. But so is the ethnographic texture that you bring to these institutions, and the way you describe how it was very hard, but how you were able to traverse so many institutional registers. And that, I think is definitely one of the proudest parts of the book.

The analytical and theoretical sophistication of the book– I think you got a sense of that from Yan’s presentation. I want to add that one of the things that I was constantly taken by in the book, and that kept me going and consuming it with such a keen avarice sense, was the way you tenaciously avoid so many received theories and schools of thought, and how you very diplomatically do that. I mean, you’re not dismissive. You’re elegantly showing how they don’t work in these specific cases. And through that, you’re building out an argument about authoritarian absorption that is really quite profound, and I would say trailblazing.

And the concept of absorption that you have, I particularly liked how you worked it at and focused in on what you call this mezzo level, and the interrelatedness, the focus on relationships, the relationships between the registers. So it’s not just a matter of what’s going on at these different registers, and how is particularly at the top of the register and the bottom of the register are these tensions. But it’s really how you help us understand these otherwise obscured mezzo levels.

How am I doing for time, Tom?

[THOMAS GOLD] I don’t–

[MATTHEW KOHRMAN] Eight? 8 to 10 minutes.

[THOMAS GOLD] You still got five.

[MATTHEW KOHRMAN] I still got five. Great, OK. So I would also draw your attention in one of the things that propelled me through the book– is an elegance of writerly élan. There is a flow. There’s a quality to the prose that is spectacular. And in these days when it’s so hard to get people to read books, it’s so hard to get people to read sections of books, it’s so hard to get students to read an academic article. The importance of clarity and writerlyness is so, so essential. And you bring that to us. And I think it’s going to serve the book very, very well.

And other things I want to draw your attention to, which I think Yan didn’t speak to so much, is this is a book that has a very profound ethical rootedness. You are a sociologist by training, this is a book that is highly objective in its analysis. But you bring a subjective positionality that seems to be very, very grounded in a sense of an ethical compass about what you have observed over the years as profoundly wrong, and that you’re trying to speak to and speak back against. And it never comes across as just dismissive or simply argumentative for the stake of that. It’s rather the way this rootedness emerges in a extended metaphor in a very grounded way.

This is definitely much more than a China studies book. And for those of us who work in China studies, we know what that means– that it’s a book about China, gets read by China study scholars. And we seem to have a hard time finding others outside of China studies to look at our work. I don’t think that’s going to be a problem here. I think this is going to be a book that’s going to be picked up and talked about for years to come, as so much more. And so much more than a book about a specific virus. This is a penetrating study at the intersection, I would say, of critical global health and political theory. And I think, for those reasons, it’s going to be picked up and read widely, and I encourage everybody to get a copy quickly before the first run is sold out.

So as a medical anthropologist– as someone who trained with a heavy focus on ethnographic methods– I really, really like the first two chapters. I like the other chapters too. They also have an ethnographic flair and perspective that you’re bringing to these government institutions. But I guess, maybe because I have a sense of those government institutions a little bit more, and I always want to know more about rural life. The first two chapters, which take us back to the viral emergence with the plasma and blood-selling enterprises in central China, I couldn’t put the book down in those sections.

So I would encourage you to look at chapters 1 and 2, especially the first chapter. Chapter 1 pays a deep, deep attention to what you call institutional ignorance out in the countryside, and how that drives the initial rise of infection. And while institutional ignorance sounds dismissive or condescending, it doesn’t come across as that at all. Chapter 2, I really, really loved a lot. I’m only going to talk about this last chapter, and then I’m going to have some concluding questions. This second chapter pays a deep attention to how processes of social exclusion at the village level, with a special attention to gender exclusion, was what lit the fire in the countryside, for people deciding to start to sell their blood. At a time when there was tremendous stigma against people selling their blood. People didn’t want to do it, and they were not eager to do it. And what broke through the stigma of selling blood, which then allowed for the infection to burst out in Central China, was processes of gendered exclusion. And that was just really fascinating to read.

So I have some questions, and I’m not sure if this is the forum for raising questions. And because I don’t know if we’re going to have conversation, but some questions I had that I thought might be worthwhile thinking about as an audience– either when you’re reading the book, or at some future time. The concept of authoritarianism that you use here, I think it works really, really well. And I think you tie in all of these various arguments under it.

It’s a term that we’ve been hearing a lot in the last five, six years, particularly in discussions of China– authoritarianism. But as someone, like others at this table, who’ve been studying China and around for a while, I mean, I think back 10 years ago, we didn’t use the term authoritarianism anywhere to the degree to which we do now. And certainly not in discussing China outright. And I think in other contexts as well. So I’m just wondering what you’re thinking now about that term, and are you at all worried that it will, maybe in years ahead, maybe start to take on different valences that you don’t mean in this book?

I have questions just about the sharing of these findings. The deep commitment you have to the people of Hunan, strikes me as especially kind of problematic– because how do you get this book, how do you get what you’ve learned, what those people that you document as kind of living in the zones of desertion– a really engaging phrase you used, is the zones of desertion, to talk about the people in Hunan? How is it possible in China today for us to get this kind of knowledge back to those kinds of people in those circumstances?

So I’m going to end with one more question. And I think this is a question that I’ve been hearing a lot from China’s studies academics, which is– How, given the Li Qiang and Xi Jinping, and now post Li Qiang era of Xi Jinping China, how do we– is this kind of book possible? Is it possible for graduate students to do the research that you did? Is it possible for assistant professors to do this kind of work today? I mean, look, people are just saying, it’s not possible. So what is possible? What can be done? And how do we do it? And how can this book, maybe even, help open up some doors that– the shaking of the head, that not possible. But might this book actually, in some ways, if circulated back into China, serve to open some doors? Thank you.

[YAN LONG] Thank you.

[APPLAUSE]

 

[RACHEL STERN] Thanks. I had the advantage of attending an event in this room and sitting in the back row a couple of weeks ago, and I couldn’t see anything. So I’m standing up so I could see you guys. So what a wonderful book. What a wonderful opportunity to be here today and have an opportunity to celebrate a colleague’s work and the culmination of a decade of research. What a special day for all of us today.

One way to frame this book– and I think the top-line finding– is that it’s an effort to map a middle ground about how much international exchange matters. So as I was reading, I thought about an old book by a professor of history at Yale, Jonathan Spence, who is emeritus and has died subsequently, called To Change China, which is a history of Western efforts to change China and never works. That’s what that book is about over 300 years– it never works.

And I think this book is in some ways, in dialogue with that book, to say that it works in unanticipated ways. That transnational practices meld with socialist practices to create a new public health model that has features of global public health models. It’s cognizable– in some ways, it looks like the United States– but is also distinctively socialist and distinctively Chinese.

My own background is I’m a political scientist by training, and I’m a terrible presentist. Like all my efforts are to try to understand the world that we live in right now. So 2024, next year will be 2025.

So for me, coming to this book, and I’m so glad that Matt highlighted the historical chapters because those are wonderful too. But for me coming to this book, what was most interesting was its relevance for the present moment. To think about how the China’s experience with international exchange has led to the emergence of what the book calls epidemic infrastructural power, or I would call state capacity to measure, to manage infectious diseases. And to recognize that this whole COVID response, that people who don’t study China turned on the news five years ago are like, what? What’s going on? that it came out of somewhere. That it was cognizable, and for those– humans instinctively out of the HIV, the HIV/AIDS world.

And I think the book is really convincing. I love the last chapter. That’s the one on COVID, talking about the core features of China’s response being molded by the HIV/AIDS crisis. So all the emphasis on testing, on numbers, on quantifiable targets, the divide between urban and rural China being completely different– all of that is echoed in this earlier period in the context of a different pandemic.

Matt did such a nice job talking about the virtues of the book. There’s so much to admire here. There’s sustained and emotionally challenging fieldwork. I love the efforts to look at a policy area over decades, rather than just flying in and taking a snapshot. And then overall, it’s a complicated book. I love the book’s insistence on nuance and refusal to simply repackage overly simplistic narratives about anyone, about Western funders or the Chinese state, having all the power and authority. And that’s not to say that the book is not attentive to power– it’s very attentive to power. But it’s a book that puts real people at the center, often with beautifully realized, detailed portraits of them, and insists on their agency. Insists that power has to be negotiated and that it’s not absolute, and that there’s agency for everyone and dignity for everyone. That’s maybe a way of saying there are no bad guys. They’re all good guys, working in complex ways.

By way of comments, and to kick off our discussion, I wanted to pull out some themes and some that I think are ripe beneath the surface and to transition into asking some questions. I’m going to focus on the public health professionals that are one of the players– not the only player. I told you it was a complex book, but one of the key groups here. And the themes that I wanted to pull out were status and ambition.

And so what motivates the public health professionals? Why do you bother with transnational exchange? And here, I think a lot is about status. And the chapter on this is really well done in giving us a portrait of how public health officials are delighted with the new found status and training that they get from international contacts. So for one of the public health officials that we meet in the book, named Shangbin, they say HIV/AIDS represented a life-changing chance. And it means personally, like a life-changing chance for them to further their career and to do meaningful work.

So thinking about status, which I think is a main theme of human behavior. It makes me curious about status and what happened to status after the withdrawal of International funding. I’m curious about alternative forms of status that might have emerged– domestic forms of status, alternative forms of hierarchy– and how that withdrawal of International funding changed the public health field.

And then the second theme is ambition that by the end of the book, public health has become an arena for diplomacy and for China to project soft power. So the book ends with China looking for apprentices in the Global South, donating, I’m going to get the scale wrong– billions of vaccines, millions of vaccines– millions, lots and lots of vaccines, a lot of vaccines, donating lots of vaccines around the world and exporting its own project-based model. And this ambition is really familiar to me as someone who studies law, because I think law is also an arena in which China has tried to lead the world in recent years. A place where, to echo one of Xi Jinping’s slogans, China’s story can be told well and a possible arena for diplomacy.

So if you take these two areas together– law and public health– as part of soft power of China’s leadership, I think it’s interesting to put them in dialogue. But then I want to go back to the conceptual framework of the book and use the approach that the book does, and disaggregate the state. And just ask the question, where does this ambition come from in the system? If we disaggregate the state, is the vaccine diplomacy and the rest, the desire to engage internationally? Is this the public health officials? This is another arena for status and authority or institutional legitimacy, depending on what vocabulary you want to use. So is this about them, or are they driving this? Or is this happening even higher up, or in some other agency, as part of a broader soft power diplomacy initiative?

And then last, I wanted to ask, and Yan can push back against this framing, but as I was reading, I was trying to figure out what this book tells us about Xi Jinping’s time in power. Xi barely appears in the book. And in fact, international funding, which changes right around 2013, it disappears relatively quickly and off stage. But of course, there’s a broader context there about the drying up of international funding and programming. There’s a whole legal dimension to it– new laws are passed, and international funders leave, and civil society organizations, in terms of number and robustness, precipitously decline by the end of the period– all of which I know is in the book and is known.

But I was really struck by the periodization. So the periodization of the book has the China model of epidemic control emerging from 2009 to 2018. So that’s a period that predates Xi Jinping and goes through his first term in power. So I just wanted to ask about that. I’m curious about the choice not to periodize by leader, not to periodize by who’s on top of the system. I can imagine that perhaps public health is an arena that is less sensitive to directions from the top, or maybe this is something that just has not been a priority of Xi or of the Politburo. Or maybe this is a disciplinary question. Maybe this is because I’m coming from political science, and we’re just like, this is the question that if a political scientist falls asleep in a job talk, it wakes up, you’ll say, what does this tell me? China studies job talk, you say, what does this tell me about politics under Xi? And say, how is the Xi era different, given that he’s the most powerful and transformative leader since Mao and Deng?

But I did want to at least ask the question and ask about the choices that were made in putting the manuscript together in the way that it is. And then a more subtle version of the question, which I’m starting to grapple with myself is to try to think about change over time, as Xi’s time and power lengthens. So what can we say when someone’s in charge for a really long time. They’re not the same leader at the end of that period as they were in the beginning of that period. So how can we distinguish between early Xi and late Xi? And of course, to some extent, this is an unfair question because the fieldwork for the book ends in 2018. But I feel I know that the second book project is about the state’s response to COVID. So I feel justified in asking it. So maybe if we have time, we can go a little bit beyond the boundaries of the book to talk about what shifted in the last several years in terms of epidemic infrastructural power, and what lessons were taken away specifically from the COVID 19 pandemic. Thank you. Thank you guys for a wonderful book too.

[THOMAS GOLD] Thanks, Rachel and Matt. And Matt, very glad that you came up from Stanford. I appreciate that effort. Just a couple of comments on the point that you made about appealing to a greater audience than just China types. The book, Yan’s early work, has won several awards from the American Sociological Association, which is already a testimony to its greater appeal. And as I read it, I learned so much about so many different subfields in sociology, to tick some off– political globalization, stratification, civil society, social movements, gender, organization, sexuality, public health, medical sociology, and technology. So there’s something here for everybody, I think, and hopefully people will be aware of that.

I also want to single out the whole fieldwork aspect– the unbelievable amount of fieldwork and just the different groups within Chinese society that she was able to deal with, to gain access to, and to humanize them. I think the point that you made about these are real people, and we get a sense of real people grappling with very sensitive and very difficult issues. I have a couple of– in my own experience with INGO, International NGOs in China, it’s been in the environmental space. So the point that Rachel just made, if you’re dealing with HIV/AIDS, a very sensitive issue, it touches on so many different things in terms of Chinese society. But if you were looking instead at human trafficking or labor or the environment, it would be a very different book, it seems to me. You’d come to a very different– possibly that’s a question, I guess– very different set of conclusions about the nature of the Chinese bureaucracy, Chinese state, and its relation with civil society.

Once again, also the point that Rachel made about– both Rachel and Matt– on fieldwork, is this is, of course, a big issue in the China field now– will it be possible to conduct this sort of fieldwork? You, as a Chinese, may have certain advantages, such that you’ve got networks and family and so on within China. But for someone who is not ethnically Chinese or not from the PRC, will it be possible to do in-depth ethnographic fieldwork or interviews in the future?

And because you interviewed people in so many different spheres of life, what did you tell them you were doing? There’s always in fieldwork and ethnography, there’s also a certain amount of deception, in some cases. You don’t want to tell people exactly what you’re asking, especially in something as sensitive as this. How did you present what you were doing? So I’ll give you a chance to respond. And then we have– when are we supposed to end, at 1:30? Yeah, five minutes, if you can deal with that, and then we’ll see how the questions go.

[YAN LONG] OK, thank you so very much for your generous comments. I really appreciate them. There are a lot of questions–

[THOMAS GOLD] It’s up to you, you don’t have to answer.

[YAN LONG] Yeah OK. Let’s see. I guess everybody mentioned fieldwork, so let me respond to that. When I was doing my fieldwork, everybody like– I got a similar reaction. It’s like, It’s too sensitive, it’s too difficult. It’s kind of funny, like the Security Bureau under various professors were telling me the same thing. So now when I look at it, it’s similar, the situation isn’t. I don’t feel like it’s necessarily that much worse. It really depends on the location. The rural areas are much more difficult. But even back then, it was very hard for me. I was carrying two cell phones. In the rural areas, it was just much, much more intense. That’s why now I’m shifting towards urban governance. It’s a conscious decision.

But again, I’m studying COVID-19, which is supposedly one of the most sensitive, taboo again. And I don’t know digital technologies any better. So I think until you do it, you never know what the limit is. And I also think right now it’s becoming even more important because of the disengagement or the separation between China and the US. I don’t think people here– I always have this belief is whenever you’re on the field, on the ground, you are not as afraid. But when you’re in the United States, with all the media, with all the newspapers, there’s just nothing– it’s just sounds like a horrendous monster.

China is just a monster. And I think it’s becoming even more imperative for us to do work. And I actually do think foreigners and Chinese native have very different advantages and disadvantages. Usually does not work free there. And I think the perspective and the closeness and sadness you can also achieve is just a different route. So I still think it’s possible. It’s just more strategic and in terms of how to do it and in what kinds of ways. That’s probably my response to the fieldwork.

But that is also because I appreciate what you guys were talking about, the humanly perspective. I consciously chose that perspective. But to be honest, I am very afraid. I am afraid what people would say. Would the activists push back? Because I’m not necessarily like, oh, you are the good guy. Or would the government?

There was Authoritarian Absorption. Yes, I would never, ever take this book back. And just with retiring, the term itself, I think it’s just not acceptable, even on social media. I posted it, and people asked me to take it down. It’s just not allowed. That’s actually why I insisted on using the authoritarian term, is especially because it is such a taboo in China right now, and also because of, in the United States, the change of the politics.

I think the authoritarian expansion is not just in authoritarian states but also in the whole world. Before 2010, we were talking about authoritarian expansion. But right now, we’re talking about right here, you see the democratic and authoritarian battle. So I think that is still very, very important. But I totally get what you’re saying is the implications.

I think some of my colleagues in political science would use autocracy instead of authoritarianism. So now that’s where I stand. I do not want to go into the autocracy, but authoritarianism, that’s where I stand. On the sharing of finding, I would say, yes, it’s a guilty confession. I feel really horrible about writing this book because it’s based on people’s suffering and misery.

And there is no way I can– some of the people, many of them have passed away. I probably will never see many of them ever again. And I can’t really share, especially in the rural areas. And also, the sad part is when I present the book, I realize people are far more interested in the urban gay man rather than the rural areas because it resonates much better here. People understand it. They have assumptions.

But they don’t understand the rural areas, all the histories. It’s a long, long, long story that feels very strange and foreign to the US audience. So in some ways, I want to tell this story in the book. I think that’s the thing. For me, I want to tell their stories, even if they’re not of theoretical significance to the academic audience here.

But also, not to demonize the state is very important for me. That’s a funny thing. I mean, everybody asked me what’s going to happen after I publish the book. I don’t know. I don’t know. Maybe I can’t go back. I don’t know. But I’m just like, if they read the book, then they will realize it’s not just about politics and power, but also– I also what Rachel was talking about. It’s about humans and their personal desire and ambition, and also a lot of the inequalities, the unequal relationship between Chinese officials, the bureaucrats and technocrats, and their Western counterparts. That is also very real.

And so that’s partially what you were talking about, the status and ambition, because there is the– I don’t like the term postcolonial because it doesn’t apply in China. But there is certainly the idea of suddenly, you have a country of agents. Suddenly, they are rising on the world stage, but then they don’t get the same recognition and the same respect.

So in these areas, Tom was completely right. If I work on a different area, like trafficking, human trafficking, that would be very different because public health is a very technocratic area. Technocratic, knowledge-oriented epidemic, that epidemiology– for authoritarian state or any Global South country, that are considered as really important to boost their status and their reputation.

So in that sense, I think law is actually the same thing. I think that’s also one of the major reasons why an international organization can have a huge impact in China, because it’s not morality driven. It is actually technology driven. So in that sense, it is the different sides of the same sword.

[THOMAS GOLD] Time is running away.

[YAN LONG] OK, I’ll just stop here then.

Yeah.

Yes.

Then you can continue.

[AUDIENCE MEMBER] Thank you very much. My name is Rosy Hsieh, and I’m a Berkeley PhD that’s visiting on campus this semester– or this year, actually, and also, like Rachel, a political scientist and really, very much appreciate the fact that this– just also based on the comments, too, this is a fascinating book, and I cannot wait to pick it up.

I see synergies between– I really like what appears to be the mid-level theorizing, connecting the micro-level developments with your ambition of speaking to macro-level IR kind of issues. And I’m thinking two political scientists. One in China studies is Diana Fu’s work. And you probably know about her work on her book Mobilizing Without the Masses.

And so one argument that she makes is that because of the nature of authoritarianism in China, activists have to adopt different types of methods. And those methods that they have to adopt to work within the environment, in her argument is that it actually is, in fact, empowering, whereas it appears here, you’re showing that, actually– then it actually gets co-opted by the state.

And her work is mainly on labor activists. So I’m wondering if you think your findings could actually travel to other issue areas, or is it really just about public health, and this is where the authoritarian state co-opts some of the practices of international level? And then really quickly, the other one is an IR specialist who I met at Temple University, and she used to be one of my colleagues, Sarah Bush. And she/her book is called Taming of Democracy Assistance.

And she argues that it’s actually because of authoritarian governments you see IOs or INGOs where they operate in, in her context, the Middle East, they become tamed because they cannot actually do democracy assistance. They have to do things that could actually work in the authoritarian context. So is the causal arrow here the IOs changing? I mean, so I see co-optation here, but maybe it’s the authoritarian governments that’s actually changing IOs or NGOs. Anyway, yeah, fascinating. And I very much look forward to reading your book. Thank you.

[OTHER AUDIENCE MEMBER] Thanks.

Yeah. Thank you so much for this very interesting presentation, and I’m looking forward to reading the book. And I find, actually, the title of the book is pretty powerful. The term of authoritarian absorption actually reminds us some other similar notions, such as Professor King– actually, Professor Karman also touched on it. Professor King Ambrose, administrative absorption of politics in Hong Kong under the British governance, and as well as, like Professor Chin Lee’s legal bureaucratic absorption of the grass root protests in China.

So these are some similar notions talking about China. And you are actually showing us how this term, absorption, could be more powerful and fruitful when we are talking about China. So actually, I was curious if you have done some conceptual comparison in this book, or if you could give us a brief interpretation about the conceptualization by this term. Thanks.

[THIRD AUDIENCE MEMBER] Thank you. My name is Min Li, and I’m from Anthropology Department, Medical Anthropology. And I also did field work in China. So I was comparing your book with Katherine Mason’s Infectious Change on SARS. And I was just wondering, since I didn’t read your book yet, if there’s any connection with the SARS system, the systematic change after SARS as well, reflected in your book.

And also, since the timeline ends in 2018– and I know that a lot of civil activists that I met in China. They say that the most critical changes happened between 2016 to 2018, and everything changed into the system of government buying the service like [INAUDIBLE] from all the organizations. And according to that standard, there are the organizations that can cooperate with the government and who are totally out of China.

So I was wondering if your concept of absorption reflects that situation afterwards, 2018? Yeah, thank you for your presentation. And I’m looking forward to your book.

[YAN LONG] Thank you very much for your questions. Those are pretty big questions. I’m just going to give a very simplistic answer. Yes, first is Diana Fu’s book. Yes, I’m very familiar with that book. And I would say that kind of competition, like you were describing, that does happen in different areas. I actually did shadow comparison across different issue areas. So I would see there are certainly similarities.

Secondly is the term democratic assistance. What is the causal link? I would probably also provide a different point of view, that is that China is not just internet nowadays in global health. China is World Health Organization and UNAID’s darling. And there is a reason, not because China bought them off, but because China really played its game really well.

And who set up the game? It was international organizations. So in many ways, from the IO perspective, international organizations nowadays– I’m not talking about NGOs, but really intergovernmental organizations. They’re changing the rule of the game into the expertise. They don’t want to be this just moral authority, exactly like you said, because it doesn’t really work in authoritarian context.

So they shifted their role into a consultant. And they emphasize technocratic innovation. And it’s that kind of game trying to really thrive. OK, different authoritarian regimes might play really well. I would say, yes, it’s the government, but also the international organizations, both ends. The interactions within that kind of way, that’s the causal. I would say, it goes both ways.

My concept, I would say, yes, absorption happens, actually, also in the United States. Administrators always try to absorb different rebellion forces. But the difference, I think here, I emphasize [INAUDIBLE] is just really the moderators because it’s more about the transnational liberal rules, because I wanted to go in against the idea that social movements must be democratic, social movements must be liberal. No, social movements have very dark, dark sides to it.

So from that idea, my absorption is really more about how the Western world influences. So that might be slightly different compared to others. Yes, Mason’s book. We have some similar argument in terms of the bureaucrats, how Chinese bureaucrats position themselves and their interactions with outside the bureaucratic world. I think in that sense, it’s quite similar.

And the SARS did play a huge role in terms of helping to push the health into the world political landscape. That was the beginning. That actually goes back to Rachel’s question, why the timing? The period, for me, is more about the world political changes rather than the leadership change in China. What happens with Trump is never just starts with Trump in that sense.

And I would just say, the contracting model, I think, of my book probably pushes back even further by talking about, where did the outsourcing contracting model started? That was not a Chinese invention. That actually came from nobody else but the United States. So new managerial reform played a huge role in this process. So I wanted to identify that as a source rather– and then the consequences, and it comes. Yes. So you’re definitely right in that. Yes.

[THOMAS GOLD] Great. Well, this has been really fascinating. So I want to thank Matt and Rachel and, of course, Jen for leading us through this really great discussion. And the book is– we don’t have it for sale outside here, do we?

[YAN LONG] No. I got 20 copies.

[THOMAS GOLD] Book talks, there was Cody’s blessed memory.

[YAN LONG] Oh, wow

[THOMAS GOLD] –sell books. Anyway, thanks again and thanks to the audience for participating.

[YAN LONG] Thank you so very much.

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